International
Asia Week Ahead: China's Q2 GDP, BOK Decision, India Inflation
China's economic data will take center stage this week, with investors closely watching second-quarter GDP and June activity data for fresh clues on the health of the world's second-largest economy as it enters the second half of the year.Singapore and Malaysia will also release their second-quarter GDP estimates, offering a broader snapshot of regional growth.Inflation will remain in focus as India and Malaysia publish consumer and wholesale price data, providing further insight into price pressures.Markets will also be watching the Bank of Korea's latest monetary policy decision.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, July 13India will report June inflation numbers later today. Following a 3.93% reading in May, Trading Economics is expecting a slight uptick to 4.0%.TUESDAY, July 14Singapore will publish its advance Q2 GDP estimate. Goldman Sachs expects the economy to grow 5.2% year over year in the April-to-June period, slowing from 6.0% in the first quarter.Meanwhile, China's June trade figures will be closely watched as tensions between Beijing and the European Union over rising Chinese exports intensify.ING economists forecast export growth of about 17.5% YoY and import growth of 24.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of $120.1 billion.India will release its June wholesale price index, a key gauge of wholesale inflation. The data is being followed for insights into production-level cost pressures that could influence policy decisions.WEDNESDAY, July 15China's economy likely grew 4.5% YoY in the second quarter, slowing from the 5.0% expansion in Q1, according to a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.ANZ Research attributed the slowdown to a reduced number of working days due to extended spring holidays in April and May. Slower fiscal spending likely also weighed on growth as Beijing sought to preserve its fiscal buffer amid geopolitical uncertainty and energy-price shocks, ANZ said.The same WSJ poll forecasts China's retail sales contracted 0.1% in June, an improvement from the 0.6% decline recorded in May.Industrial production likely rose 4.7% in June, up from 4.5% in May, according to ING estimates. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment is expected to have contracted 5.2% in the first half, widening from the 4.1% decline in the January-to-May period.Meanwhile, Japan will report its May machinery orders, while Reuters will publish the Tankan Index, a key survey of Japanese business sentiment.Elsewhere in the region, South Korea will release export prices and unemployment data.India's June trade data and unemployment rate are also due on Wednesday.THURSDAY, July 16The Bank of Korea (BOK) will hold its rate-setting meeting on Thursday after Governor Shin Hyun Song repeatedly signaled the need for tighter monetary policy.Bank of America analysts expect the BOK to raise its base rate by 25 basis points, citing elevated inflation concerns and foreign exchange stability risks."Against this backdrop, policymakers are likely to place greater emphasis on exchange-rate stability and its implications for inflation and financial conditions," BofA said in a note.FRIDAY, July 17Singapore will release its June non-oil domestic exports (NODX) data.DBS expects NODX growth to moderate to 25.0% year over year in June from 38.4% in May.Non-electronics exports likely eased due to an unfavorable comparison with the previous year, while electronics exports were likely supported by strong global demand for AI-related products, particularly memory chips and server equipment, DBS economists said.Meanwhile, Malaysia's inflation rate likely held steady at 2.0% in June, according to consensus estimates.Higher electricity tariffs and food prices were offset by lower transport costs as fuel prices declined, ANZ economists said, adding that inflation is expected to remain manageable and is unlikely to prompt Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to change its policy rate.On the GDP front, Malaysia's Q2 economic growth likely slowed from the 5.4% expansion recorded in the first quarter.BNM Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said high-frequency indicators point to some moderation in economic activity in the second quarter of 2026. He nevertheless said the economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite external uncertainties.Hong Kong's business confidence and employment data are also due for release on Friday.
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