Operational Bottlenecks May Slow Venezuela's Oil Production Growth, Kpler Says
Operational bottlenecks could prevent Venezuela from reaching its 1.4 million barrels per day production goal this year, Kpler said in a Friday note.Venezuela plans to add about 200,000 b/d to current production by year-end. Kpler expects output to continue increasing but projects a lower level of 1.3 million b/d, citing near-term operational constraints.Crude production climbed to roughly 1.2 million b/d in June from about 850,000 b/d in Q4 2025, making Venezuela the world's fastest-growing oil producer this year, Kpler said.Higher production also lifted demand for diluent imports, with Venezuelan naphtha imports averaging around 100,000 b/d in recent months, according to Kpler.Kpler expects Venezuela to produce a more realistic 2 million b/d by the end of the decade, below the government's 3 million b/d target for 2030, assuming political stability and greater participation from international oil companies.Rig shortages and deteriorating infrastructure will continue to limit Venezuela's production growth, while ample global crude supplies should keep output around 2 million b/d in 2031 and 2032, Kpler said.Venezuela has overhauled its investment framework after Interim President Delcy Rodriguez cut the government's share in most crude projects to 20%-35% from nearly 83% and introduced royalty brackets, Kpler said.Higher oil prices driven by the US-Iran conflict have strengthened investor interest, Kpler said. Chevron (CVX) has moved quickly to expand operations, while ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are converting preliminary agreements with PDVSA into formal joint ventures.Even with stronger foreign interest, equipment shortages and deteriorating infrastructure will continue to restrict operations through 2027, Kpler said, delaying any meaningful increase in production until 2028.Nearly two decades after exiting Venezuela, ExxonMobil had started talks by late May to secure production rights for as many as six oil fields across multiple regions, Kpler said.Kpler said the policy shift coincides with President Donald Trump's call for $100 billion in private investment to rebuild Venezuela's energy industry after Nicolas Maduro's departure in January.The renewed push came only months after Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods described the country as "uninvestable," according to Kpler.
