US Wind Outlook Raised as Construction Boom Offsets Policy Deadline Risks, Wood Mackenzie Says
The US wind industry is projected to add over 53 gigawatts of new capacity by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.The firm raised its five-year greenfield forecast by 5% from the previous quarter as developers accelerate construction ahead of expiring federal tax incentives.The revised outlook, published in Wood Mackenzie's US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026 report, reflects stronger execution of projects that are already advancing toward construction rather than a broad expansion of new developments.The consultancy said developers are concentrating investment on projects that can begin commercial operations before the federal tax credit window closes, driving an increase in construction activity despite ongoing permitting and grid connection challenges.The 4% upgrade reflects a market in execution mode, said Diego Espinosa, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.Construction starts for onshore wind projects rose 8% in Q1 compared with the same period a year earlier, as developers rushed to meet the July 2026 safe harbor deadline that preserves eligibility for federal tax credits.Wood Mackenzie said projects that have already reached final investment decision account for 58% of forecast greenfield capacity additions through 2028, underlining confidence in the near-term development pipeline.Firm turbine orders also strengthened, reaching 1.1 GW in Q1, five times higher than a year earlier, signaling continued capital deployment into projects that qualify for tax incentives.Wood Mackenzie projects that onshore wind installations will peak in 2028, though permitting delays and interconnection bottlenecks are likely to push a growing share of early-stage developments into the latter years of the decade.Meanwhile, demand from large technology companies seeking electricity for data centers continues to underpin the market.Corporate power purchase agreements increased from a year earlier in Q1, led by a 1.9-GW portfolio agreement between Google and Xcel Energy, underscoring the growing role of data-center operators as buyers of renewable electricity.However, utility procurement declined over the same period, partially offsetting gains from corporate demand. Wood Mackenzie said the outlook for offshore wind remains more challenging.The consultancy forecasts that offshore additions will peak in 2027 as the remaining 5.2 GW currently under construction reaches completion. Beyond that, Wood Mackenzie said the development pipeline has weakened after nine offshore lease auctions collapsed in H1 2026.Proceeds from a $2.7 billion federal offshore lease buyout are projected to be redirected by developers toward conventional energy projects, geothermal developments and fossil fuel investments.