Commodities
Crude Stability Masks Fuel Supply Risks as Refining Bottleneck Limits Policy Options, Kpler Says
Crude markets have shown signs of stabilization after the disruption of Middle East flows, but refined fuel supplies remain under pressure as weak product availability and lingering shipping risks limit policymakers' ability to bring gasoline prices lower, Kpler strategists said on Tuesday.The retreat in crude prices following the escalation of US-Iran tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz has created a perception that energy markets have absorbed the shock.However, Kpler data shows that the recovery in crude flows has not translated into a full recovery in refined products, leaving gasoline and diesel markets vulnerable.Crude supply has stabilized faster than the product market, Michelle Brouhard, head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, said, adding that the key constraint has shifted from availability of crude barrels to the ability of refineries to convert those barrels into transport fuels.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington would use every available tool to lower gasoline prices, pointing to recovering oil supplies, strategic petroleum reserve releases and efforts to restore freedom of navigation via the Hormuz.However, Kpler analysts said the policy options available to governments are increasingly limited because the current market imbalance is concentrated in refined products rather than crude.The latest data from Kpler showed that disruptions to Middle East shipping flows following attacks and heightened security risks around the Strait significantly reduced energy movements through the strategic waterway.Though alternative export routes via Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal and the UAE's Fujairah facilities helped maintain crude availability, refined-product flows have remained constrained.Brouhard said the market has avoided a prolonged crude shortage, but that does not mean the fuel supply problem has been solved.China's reduced crude purchases have also played a role in easing pressure on global oil balances, removing more than five million barrels per day of demand from international markets. However, Kpler said that the relief may prove temporary as Chinese refiners eventually rebuild inventories and increase crude imports.The data analytics firm said that strategic petroleum reserve releases have provided additional supply, but government stocks cannot indefinitely replace lost market flows.The widening gap between crude and fuel markets underscores the growing importance of refinery capacity.US gasoline inventories remain relatively tight, while refined products held on water are still below levels seen before the Middle East crisis. Kpler said that this suggests that replacement cargoes have not fully returned despite some recovery in crude exports.The market signal is reflected in gasoline pricing. With US gasoline inventories about 210 million barrels and gasoline futures maintaining a substantial premium to crude, current prices near $4 per gallon are consistent with underlying market fundamentals rather than excessive speculation.Brouhard said adding more crude barrels alone will not solve the gasoline problem, adding that the market needs more refining capacity and more reliable product flows.
