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Oil Prices Rebound as Optimism Around US-Iran Truce Wanes

Oil prices increased Thursday, with US crude crossing $100 a barrel as shipment activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted despite a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran.West Texas Intermediate crude traded as much as $102.70 a barrel on Thursday, and was last up 3.4% at $97.57. Brent crude climbed 0.9% to $95.61, having hit $99.50 earlier in the session.The rebound in oil prices follows the sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 in the previous session as the US and Iran agreed to temporarily halt hostilities that had gripped the Middle East.As part of the ceasefire, Washington demanded the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the crucial waterway, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.But access to the strait remained restricted, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Sultan Al Jaber said in a LinkedIn post Thursday."The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," said Al Jaber, who also serves as the United Arab Emirates minister of industry and advanced technology.Iranian state media previously reported that transit through the strait was halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would negotiate with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah, CNN reported on Thursday.Meanwhile, Gulf countries, including the UAE, continued to face attacks despite the ceasefire, RBC Capital Markets said in a report e-mailed toon Thursday."We continue to contend that actual transit levels through the waterway will remain significantly depressed given that Iran is insisting vessels must coordinate with its military or face destruction," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC, said.Officials from Washington and Tehran are expected to meet this weekend in Pakistan, which helped broker the truce.Overnight, President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that US ships, aircraft and military personnel will remain in and around Iran until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with.""With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING Bank said in a note.

Oil & Energy133d ago

US Crude Shipments Poised to Break 5 Million b/d Record in May, Bloomberg Analysis Says

US crude exports are set to reach 5 million barrels per day in May as global supply disruptions drive demand, Bloomberg said in a Thursday analysis.Shipments from the US Gulf Coast are already nearing 4.9 million b/d in April, up from about 3.97 million b/d in March, according to the analysis.The increase reflects stronger overseas demand, particularly from buyers seeking alternatives to constrained Middle Eastern crude supplies, according to the report.Analysts expect flows to rise further in May, supported by a growing number of very large crude carriers loading in the region to meet stronger export demand.Matt Smith, Kpler's commodity research director, said exports in May may climb past 5 million b/d, topping the earlier 4.5 million peak, supported by continued strong buying interest from Asia, according to the analysis.The surge comes as global markets face severe supply tightness, with US exports playing a key role in stabilizing flows amid geopolitical disruptions, according to the analysis.With summer demand approaching, rising exports could force US refiners to pay more to retain supply, while gasoline prices above $4 per gallon may increase political pressure ahead of midterm elections.Exports have briefly neared 5 million b/d, according to the EIA, but haven't held that level over a month, suggesting May could mark the first sustained period near that threshold, according to the analysis.Around 28 supertankers have been booked for May loadings, far above the typical five at this time of the month, the analysis added.Some projections suggest exports could climb as high as 5.3 million b/d if current vessel scheduling trends hold, supported by continued buying interest from Asia.A recent shipment saw the VLCC Asian Progress VI fixed to carry crude from Occidental Petroleum to East Asia for about $19 million, the analysis added, citing a Bloomberg note.Despite strong demand, the US export system is nearing capacity limits, with logistical challenges beginning to constrain further growth, the analysis said.Limited vessel availability, a shortage of smaller feeder ships, and rising freight costs could cap exports near 5.5 million b/d without additional shipping capacity, according to the analysis.

Oil & Energy133d ago

Market Chatter: Yanbu Port Loadings Persist After Attack on Key Saudi Pipeline

Crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port continued Thursday despite an attack on the 7 million barrels per day East-West pipeline, Reuters reported Thursday, citing three sources.Cargo loadings at the Red Sea terminal were continuing after the pipeline strike, with two buyers and one trading source indicating no immediate disruption to export operations.Iran carried out the attack shortly after a ceasefire agreement, targeting the pipeline that serves as Saudi Arabia's main alternative export route, an industry source told Reuters on Wednesday.The source said pipeline flows were expected to be disrupted, with authorities still evaluating the extent of the damage following the incident.Yanbu has become a critical outlet as the Strait of Hormuz faces effective closure, limiting shipments from the Gulf and shifting export reliance toward the Red Sea.Loadings at Yanbu averaged about 3.3 mmb/d in March, sharply higher than about 800,000 b/d in February, with the port capable of exporting up to 5 mmb/d, the report added, citing Kpler's data.Saudi Aramco is diverting about 2 mmb/d of crude flowing through the pipeline to supply its refineries in western Saudi Arabia, according to the report.has reached out to Saudi Aramco for any comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise, Continuing Applications Reach Lowest Since May 2024

Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US rose more than expected, while continuing claims reached the lowest level since May 2024, government data showed Thursday.For the week through April 4, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims increased by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week's average that was adjusted upwards by 1,000, the Department of Labor said. The consensus was for a 210,000 reading in a Bloomberg poll.The four-week moving average totaled 209,500, up by 1,500 from the prior week's average that was revised higher by 250. Unadjusted claims rose by 16,637 to 202,895, the DOL said."The latest jobless claims data offer no evidence that the (US-Israel) war with Iran has had a notable impact on the labor market," Oxford Economics Lead US Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in remarks e-mailed to. "We don't think an upside surprise in one week is sending a signal that labor market conditions are softening."Seasonally adjusted continuing claims for the week ended March 28 reached 1.79 million, the lowest level since May 11, 2024, and lagging Wall Street's expectations of 1.83 million. Continuing claims dropped by 38,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 9,000, according to the DOL. The four-week moving average fell by 13,250 to about 1.82 million."Continued claims are trending lower, reflecting the general drift lower of initial claims since last fall," Vanden Houten said.Earlier this month, official data showed that the US economy added more jobs than expected in March, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% sequentially.On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed that monetary policymakers emphasized the need to remain "nimble" in adjusting interest rates in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Iran war, which started at the end of February.On Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, though the truce appears fragile.

US 30-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower

The US Treasury's 30-year auction hit a high yield of 4.876% on Thursday, up from the 4.871% high in the previous auction.The bid to cover ratio for the auction was 2.39, below the 2.45 ratio in the previous auction.Dealers represented 54.35% of the bids, with direct bidders at 12.87% and indirect bidders at 32.78%.For takedown, dealers took 11.62%, with direct bidders at 24.23% and indirect bidders at 64.14%.

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Exchange-Traded Funds Edge Higher as US Equities Rise After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV advanced. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 0.4%.US equity indexes rose in midday trading on Thursday as a fragile Iran ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan appears to be largely holding.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each dropped about 1.1%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) slipped 0.3%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.2% lower, while iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) fell 0.2%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) advanced 0.8%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was up 1.5%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed up 1.2%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 1.4%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 3.5%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 0.2%. Natural gas fell 2.1%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 2.2%.Gold on Comex was up 0.7%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained 1.2%. Silver rose 1.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 2% higher.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 0.8%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added 0.9%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was 0.8% higher.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) advanced 1.5%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 1.5%, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) was up 0.8%.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.1%, and iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) also edged higher. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) added 0.3%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) climbed 1.4%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) rose 1.3%, and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) was up 0.8%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 0.7%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) added 1%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) gained 0.1%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was up 0.6%.

US 30-Year High Yield 4.876% vs 4.871% Previous; Bid/Cover 2.39 vs 2.45 Previous

Petro-Victory Energy Increases a Shares for Debt Transaction

Petro-Victory Energy (VRY.V) on Thursday said it revised terms to the debt settlement transaction of US$500,000 announced on March 22.The company said it now plans to enter into a debt settlement agreement with 579 Max Ltd to settle outstanding debts of US$1 million owing to the lender by issuing 2.04-million shares of the company at a deemed price of C$0.68 each.The company said the closing of the shares-for-debt transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the exchange approval.The company plans to close the shares-for-debt transaction as soon as practicable.The company's shares last traded April 8, closing at $0.65 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

$VRY.V

Chevron Flags Tailwind to Quarterly Upstream Earnings From Higher Commodity Prices

Chevron (CVX) expects higher commodity prices driven by the Middle East conflict to boost first-quarter earnings in its upstream segment by up to $2.2 billion, though timing impacts could weigh on the oil giant's bottom line.Elevated oil prices are projected to benefit upstream segment earnings by $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in the March quarter, compared with the previous three-month period, the company said in a regulatory filing Thursday.Crude prices resumed their upward trend Thursday amid uncertainty over the two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran announced Tuesday. The war started at the end of February, sending energy prices soaring amid the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 4.5% higher intraday at $98.67 a barrel, while Brent increased 1.7% to $96.37, well above pre-war levels.Chevron said that timing effects linked to hedging and accounting in a rising commodity price environment are "generally negative," potentially impacting first-quarter earnings and cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, by roughly $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion."The majority of these effects are in the downstream segment and are expected to unwind in future periods," the company said in the filing.Chevron shares were down 1.2% intraday, reducing its year-to-date gain to about 26%.The company expects downstream earnings to include a charge of about $350 million to $400 million tied to a litigation reserve related to ceased operations, according to the filing.First-quarter upstream oil-equivalent production is forecast to be in a range of 3.8 million barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels, mainly reflecting downtime at Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil project and reduced production in the Middle East, Chevron said.The company expects to report first-quarter results by May 1.On Wednesday, larger rival Exxon Mobil (XOM) flagged that production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict could lower its global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter. The company also said it expected the surge in energy prices to boost upstream earnings.Price: $191.94, Change: $-0.95, Percent Change: -0.49%

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Inflation Accelerates in February, Real Consumer Spending Edges Higher

US inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher, with analysts expecting price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict.The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% month over month in February following a 0.3% gain in the prior month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. On a yearly basis, the PCE price index held steady at 2.8% growth.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January. Annual growth slowed to 3% from 3.1%. All inflation prints met estimates in Bloomberg-compiled surveys."Core prices are actually gaining momentum, up 4.4% annualized the past three months, compared with 3.4% in the past six months," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. "And this is before spillover pressures from the Iran war."The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, apparently pausing hostilities that spread across the Middle East and boosted energy prices. Officials from Washington and Tehran are set to meet in Pakistan this weekend amid reports of ceasefire violations."Headline inflation is expected to jump on higher (gasoline) prices in March, however, it's likely too soon for the second order price effects to show up in core inflation," Ksenia Bushmeneva, economist at TD Economics, said in a report.Inflation-adjusted real consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, slower than the Street's estimate of a 0.2% gain and following a flat reading in January."With headline inflation likely to test 4% soon, there is little chance the Fed will ease policy in the near term," Guatieri said.Markets widely expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged later this month, the CME FedWatch tool showed.The US central bank should be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Middle East conflict, minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 meeting showed Wednesday.

Average Asking Rent in Canada Falls to A 35-Month Low in March, Says Report

Average asking rent in Canada fell to a 35-month low of $2,008 in March, said Rentals.ca and Urbanation.The year-over-year decline in rents, an average of $112, or 5.3%, was the largest in nearly five years, representing the 18th-consecutive month of falling rents, they noted in a report.Rents fell by 1.1% from February and have declined by 2.5% since the start of the year. However, key markets of Vancouver, Ottawa, and Montreal saw modest month-over-month increases, while rents remained down year-over-year.Purpose-built rentals remained the most stable on an annual basis, declining 3.9% to an average of $2,005, but saw the largest decline on a month-over-month basis, falling 1.2% from February.Average rents for all unit types continued to fall across the most populous provinces, down 5.4% in Ontario, 5.1% in British Columbia, 4.4% in Alberta, and 2.1% in Quebec. However, increases were seen in Nova Scotia (+3.3%), Saskatchewan (+2.7%) and Manitoba (+2.1%).

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S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$BB.TO$GTWO.TO

TSX Down 72 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Lower

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 72 points at midday, with most sectors lower.The worst performers are the telecoms sector and energy, down 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively.Financials and industrials are the biggest gainers, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.The tenuous two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is holding, albeit by a thread, as attacks on Lebanon continue and Iran says traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted to around a dozen ships per day (versus over 100 before the war). Formal peace talks begin Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan to try to bridge the seemingly large differences between the U.S.'s 15-point and Iran's 10-point plans.In company news, G2 Goldfields (GTWO.TO) has jumped near 74% to $10.46 after G Mining Ventures (GMIN.TO) said this morning it is acquiring the company in a $3.0 billion all-share transaction with G2 shareholders receiving 0.212 GMIN common shares per G2 share held. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of this year.BlackBerry (BB.TO) is up 11% to $5.45 after it reported better than expected revenues for the fourth quarter, led by its QNX unit, and forecast better than expected growth in fiscal 2027.

European Stocks Mostly Lower in Thursday Trading; Oil Prices Rise as Ceasefire on Shaky Ground

The European stock markets were moving mostly lower in Thursday trading as investors monitor the Middle East war amid rising oil prices due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to most shipping traffic.The Stoxx Europe was declining 0.4%, Germany's DAX was down 1.4%, the FTSE 100 was off 0.3%, France's CAC was moving 0.5% lower, while the Swiss Market Index was up 0.1%.The European Commission's Oil Coordination Group, member nations, and industry representatives said in a meeting Wednesday that the region's oil supply remains stable amid soaring oil prices spurred by the Middle East war. They emphasized the importance of maintaining transparency and coordination at the EU level, as well as avoiding any unnecessary disruption in the markets.Energy stocks benefitted from oil prices rising again as a proposed ceasefire is on shaky ground. BP and Shell shares were adding 3.2% and 1.4% respectively in London, while TotalEnergies gained 2.7% in Paris, and Eni was up 4% in Milan.And in corporate news, Novartis said Thursday it will expand its programs to find and treat patients with heart disease and cancer in "hard-to-reach" communities worldwide.By 2030, three Novartis community health approaches focused on closing gaps in care for low-income, rural and other communities will almost triple to more than 30 countries, the company said.Shares of Novartis were up 0.3% in Zurich.Novo Nordisk said Thursday that the European Medicines Agency has approved an update to the Wegovy injection's product information, allowing it to be delivered to patients at a controlled temperature of up to 30 degrees Celsius for up to 48 hours.Previously, the injection had to be kept cold for the entirety of the distribution and delivery process, from where it was made to where it will be used, the company said.Shares of the Danish pharmaceutical company were off 0.8% in Copenhagen.UBS-led lender group has funded TJC-backed Echo Global Logistics' acquisition of ITS Logistics, after talks to sell the $765 million loan for the merger were paused due to ongoing market turbulence, Bloomberg reported Wednesday evening, citing people familiar with the matter.The UBS-led group funded the loan after the acquisition was completed at the end of March, the people reportedly said, adding that the group plans to try to syndicate the debt to investors at a later date.UBS, TJC and Echo Global Logistics did not immediately respond to' request for comment on Thursday.Shares of the Swiss bank gained 0.3%.Stellantis' production at its factories in Italy rose 9.5% to 120,366 vehicles in Q1 compared with a year earlier, according to media reports citing Italian labor union FIM-CISL.The automaker is expected to manufacture 500,000 vehicles in Italy in 2026, up from approximately 380,000 in 2025, according to the reports.Shares of Stellantis were little changed in Paris.

UK Stocks Subdued on Middle East Ceasefire Doubts

London's FTSE 100 slipped 0.05% on Thursday's close as Israel's strikes in Lebanon led Iran to halt the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz again, casting doubts over its ceasefire with the US."Iran and US remain far apart on key issues, so a new escalation is likely," Danske Bank said. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the parliament of Iran, noted the violation of three points of the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump posted on the Truth Social platform that US forces will stay put until the "real agreement" is fully complied with, adding that the US military is "looking forward, actually, to its next conquest" if the agreement is not honored.On the economic side, the UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors house price balance stood at -23% in March 2026, down from the revised -14% in the previous month. The latest reading missed the consensus estimate of -18% and was the weakest since December 2023."The mood across the UK housing market has shifted markedly over the past couple of months. What had been a cautiously improving picture for activity has been knocked off course by the wider macro fallout from the Middle East conflict, as the renewed deterioration in the mortgage rate outlook has proved particularly challenging. ... The path ahead hinges on whether or not recent surges in oil and energy costs begin to reverse in what remains a highly uncertain geopolitical environment," said RICS Head of Market Research and Analysis Tarrant Parsons."The March survey data is unambiguously negative for UK-listed housebuilders in the near term. The sharp deterioration in buyer demand, the collapse in near-term sales expectations (to -33%), and the acceleration in downward price pressure all point to a more challenging trading environment heading into Q2 2026," RBC Capital Markets said.In corporate news, bourse operator London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.L) climbed 0.18% after initiating a share buyback program worth up to 900 million pounds sterling.Meanwhile, British American Tobacco (BATS.L), down 1.99%, appointed Dragos Constantinescu as chief financial officer, effective Sept. 1. Until then, Javed Iqbal will continue as the tobacco and nicotine products giant's interim CFO.

FTSE 100$BATS.L$LSEG.L

German Blue-chip DAX Index Retreats Amid Middle East Truce Uncertainty

Germany's blue-chip DAX index reversed its earlier gains, closing 1.14% lower on Thursday, amid concerns of a breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations.Shipping remains paralyzed in the Strait of Hormuz as persistent Israeli operations in Lebanon strain regional stability. In response, Tehran threatened to abandon its fledgling ceasefire agreement with Washington, as US President Donald Trump countered with warnings of a renewed military escalation should a comprehensive deal fail to materialize.Back at home, Destatis reported that German industrial production in February was down 0.3% on a monthly basis, against the revised zero growth in January and the market's expected 0.9% uptick. Year over year, industrial output was stable, following a revised 0.9% fall earlier."This morning's macro data is the last release to paint a picture of the German economy before the war in the Middle East began. It's a picture of a very reluctant, hesitant consumer, but of a manufacturing sector that is struggling to gain positive momentum. The only piece of evidence currently keeping our ketchup bottle comparison alive was yesterday's industrial orders data, confirming that order books in the [defense] industry continue to fill. At least some support for our long-held view that the fiscal stimulus will increasingly reach the real economy," ING said.Meanwhile, Germany's calendar and seasonally adjusted trade surplus came in at 19.8 billion euros in February, below the revised 20.3 billion euros a month ago and the expected 18.1 billion euros. According to the Federal Statistical Office, exports ticked up 3.6% month over month, against the revised 1.5% drop earlier and the expected 1% gain. Monthly imports rose 4.7%, compared with the revised 5.1% decrease previously and the market forecast of 4% jump.In corporate news, Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.F) was down 2.02%, after reporting a 6% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries to 499,700 vehicles. The German automaker said the results were consistent with company expectations.RBC Capital Markets reduced its adjusted EPS estimates and price target for sector perform-rated Henkel (HEN.F) to 73 euros from 75 euros amid concerns that execution risks may cap the revenue benefits of recent brand acquisitions."The acquisitions of Not Your Mother's and OLAPLEX should fill in gaps in Henkel's current Hair portfolio and place the company as a more serious contender in the Consumer Hair space. If executed well, integrating these brands could add 50 [basis points] of revenue growth to its hair business over the medium term. However, with management having a lot on their plate and commodity cost inflation concurrently stepping up, we can't overlook execution risks and remain on the sidelines," RBC wrote. The German chemical and consumer goods company gained 0.27% at closing.

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