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Oil Prices Rebound as Optimism Around US-Iran Truce Wanes

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Oil prices increased Thursday, with US crude crossing $100 a barrel as shipment activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted despite a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude traded as much as $102.70 a barrel on Thursday, and was last up 3.4% at $97.57. Brent crude climbed 0.9% to $95.61, having hit $99.50 earlier in the session.

The rebound in oil prices follows the sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 in the previous session as the US and Iran agreed to temporarily halt hostilities that had gripped the Middle East.

As part of the ceasefire, Washington demanded the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the crucial waterway, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.

But access to the strait remained restricted, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Sultan Al Jaber said in a LinkedIn post Thursday.

"The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," said Al Jaber, who also serves as the United Arab Emirates minister of industry and advanced technology.

Iranian state media previously reported that transit through the strait was halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would negotiate with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah, CNN reported on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Gulf countries, including the UAE, continued to face attacks despite the ceasefire, RBC Capital Markets said in a report e-mailed toon Thursday.

"We continue to contend that actual transit levels through the waterway will remain significantly depressed given that Iran is insisting vessels must coordinate with its military or face destruction," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC, said.

Officials from Washington and Tehran are expected to meet this weekend in Pakistan, which helped broker the truce.

Overnight, President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that US ships, aircraft and military personnel will remain in and around Iran until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with."

"With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING Bank said in a note.

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