Commodities
Middle East Conflict Derails Solar Supply Chains, Revives Cost Pressures, Wood Mackenzie Says
The Middle East conflict is disrupting solar project execution and delaying the development of alternative manufacturing hubs, tightening global supply chains, and reintroducing cost pressures, Wood Mackenzie strategists said in a note on Friday.Yana Hryshko, senior research analyst and Head of Global Solar Supply Chain at Wood Mackenzie, said that the near-term impact is being felt across projects under construction in the region, where about 110 gigawatts of solar capacity is under execution or advanced stages of development.Developers and engineering, procurement, and construction contractors are delaying shipments, adjusting delivery schedules, and reassessing procurement timelines as uncertainty grows around logistics and transport routes.Rising risks along key maritime corridors have driven up freight rates and insurance costs, pushing regional project capital expenditure higher by an estimated 1-3%, while commissioning timelines in some cases are being delayed by several months.Hryshko said the disruption is spilling into global markets. Shipping costs from China to Europe have climbed since the onset of the conflict, rising by about 18% on routes to Rotterdam and about 10% to Southern Europe.Developers are absorbing these increases, reversing expectations of continued cost declines across the solar sector.Though the short-term effects are significant, Wood Mackenzie analysts say the longer-term implications could be more profound.The Middle East had been emerging as a potential solar manufacturing hub, supported by low-cost energy, favorable industrial policies, and proximity to key markets.Wood Mackenzie announced that manufacturing capacity across modules, cells, and upstream segments exceeded 30 GW, with ambitions to supply both domestic and export demand.However, the ongoing conflict is delaying project timelines, deferring investment decisions, and shifting focus toward operational resilience.The slowdown extends beyond module assembly to critical supporting components such as solar glass, aluminum frames, and mounting structures, which are essential for building competitive local supply chains.Wood Mackenzie projected that global supply chain diversification is likely to stall as a result. Instead of accelerating the development of alternative manufacturing bases, the disruption is reinforcing reliance on established supply chains, particularly in China, where scale and cost advantages remain unmatched.Similarly, vulnerabilities in upstream supply are becoming more apparent in the US. Though US module assembly capacity is projected to reach 50-60 GW by 2026, domestic solar cell production remains limited, leaving manufacturers dependent on imports.Wood Mackenzie said a significant portion of this supply comes from regions now exposed to elevated geopolitical risk, including Oman and Ethiopia.The consultancy projected that the US could lose 20-25% of its external cell supply if disruptions materialize, potentially driving cell prices higher by $0.2 to $ 0.4 per watt and affecting project economics and expansion plans.