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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire Keeps Risk Premium Elevated

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 1.25% at 45.86 euros ($53.59) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 1.65% to 116.13 pence ($1.54) per therm.The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran came under strain over Israeli strikes on Lebanon which the BBC reported killed at least 203. Tehran has called the strikes a breach of the truce.On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place in, and around, Iran," until a complete agreement is reached.Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.US Centcom Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper provided an update on Operation Epic Fury on Thursday, saying that joint efforts by US and Israeli forces had led to a "generational military defeat" for Iran, which he said has left the country unable to "project power beyond its own borders".According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will face "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.Analysts at Wood Mackenzie shared similar concerns, noting that even with the Strait open, it would take weeks or even months before the Middle East's shut-in capacity starts to come online.The firm estimated that even if Qatar begins to restart its Ras Laffan LNG facilities on Thursday, the full restoration of all 12 of its trains could take until the end of August. At the same time, its damaged capacity at the South site might remain offline for several years.This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAL$AEHR$ARES$BETH$BITO$CVX$EEM$EETH$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GLD$IBB$IGM$IGV$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$NVS$OXY$PMR$QQQ$RTH$SLV$SMPL$SOXX$SPY$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$WDS$WSR$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Thursday as Fragile Middle East Ceasefire Lifts Oil Prices

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.4% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.3% lower in Thursday's premarket activity as doubts over the durability of a Middle East ceasefire lift oil prices.US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500 Index futures down 0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures retreating 0.4% before the start of regular trading.US initial jobless claims rose to a level of 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a smaller increase to 210,000 in survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.Personal income declined 0.1% in February following January's 0.4% gain, compared with the expected 0.3% gain in a survey conducted by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET.US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET.Wholesale inventory data for February are due to be released at 10 am ET, followed by weekly natural gas stocks data at 10:30 am ET.In premarket activity, bitcoin was down by 0.3%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.2% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) fell 1.5%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was flat.Power Play:ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) retreated marginally by 0.01%, while the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was 0.01% higher, and the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was up 0.5%. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.1%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 1.3% lower.Simply Good Foods (SMPL) shares were down more than 19% pre-bell after the company posted lower fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings and net sales.Winners and Losers:FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated 0.6%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 1.7%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) was 1.9% higher.Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares were up more than 11% pre-bell after the company said it has agreed to be acquired by Ares Management (ARES) for $19 per common share or operating partnership unit in an all-cash deal valued at about $1.70 billion. Ares stock was 1.5% higher.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) retreated 0.2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.1% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 0.1%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was inactive, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) declined by 0.3%.Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shares were down more than 2% in premarket activity, a day after the company said it plans to sell up to $60 million of its common shares via an at-the-market offering.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) retreated by 0.1%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.1%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was flat. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.7% lower.Novartis (NVS) stock was down more than 1% premarket after closing the prior session with a 2% gain. The company said Thursday it will expand its programs to find and treat patients with heart disease and cancer in "hard-to-reach" communities worldwide.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) declined by 0.7%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.4% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was down 0.8%.American Airlines Group (AAL) stock was down more than 1% before the opening bell, a day after the Federal Aviation Administration said the airline should pay a $255,000 civil penalty for allegedly breaching drug and alcohol regulations.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was up 0.2%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) advanced by 0.5%.Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock was up more than 1% before Thursday's opening bell after the company said it had discovered oil at the Bandit prospect, co-owned by Chevron (CVX) and Woodside Energy (WDS), in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron stock was 0.8% higher, while Woodside advanced 0.5%.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 4.4% to $98.57 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas retreated by 0.2% to $2.72 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up by 2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.3% lower.Gold futures for May were up by 0.1% at $4,781.00 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures declined by 1% to $74.60 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.4% higher, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) advanced by 0.03%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$NVO$TTE

Alleged Ceasefire Violations in Middle East, Shipping Halt in Strait of Hormuz Dampen US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

US equity futures were lower pre-bell Thursday after Iran accused the US of violating the two-week ceasefire agreement between the two nations announced on late Tuesday and halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel's attack on Lebanon.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 0.4% lower, S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower.Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that the violations of the ceasefire agreement include Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, drone incursions into Iran, and the denial of Iran's right to enrich uranium. The White House has said that Lebanon is not part of the agreement.Oil prices were higher, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude up 3% at $97.59 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude 4.5% higher at $98.62 per barrel.The February core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, released at 8:30 am ET, gained 0.4%, matching the prior month's increase and meeting estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Initial jobless claims increased to 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from 203,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for an increase to 210,000. Q4 GDP growth was revised down to a 0.5% annual rate from 0.7% previously, compared with expectations for no change.In other world markets, Japan's Nikkei closed 0.7% lower, Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended 0.5% lower, and China's Shanghai Composite finished 0.7% lower. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.3%, and Germany's DAX index was down 1.1% in Europe's early afternoon session.In equities, Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock was down 1.4% after Bloomberg reported that the company's therapy semaglutide is facing pressure in India due to an increase in generic versions of the drug.On the winning side, TotalEnergies (TTE) shares were up 2.7% after multiple media outlets reported that the oil company was included in exemptions from Brazil's newly-enacted 12% export tax.

Ares Management to Acquire Whitestone REIT in $1.7 Billion Take-Private Deal

Ares Management (ARES) on Thursday agreed to acquire and take private real estate investment trust Whitestone REIT (WSR) in an all-cash deal worth around $1.7 billion.Certain Ares Real Estate funds will purchase all Whitestone shares and operating partnership units for $19 apiece, representing a premium of 12% to the firm's closing price as of Wednesday, the companies said in a joint statement. Whitestone's stock climbed 11% in the most recent premarket activity, while Ares fell 1.3%.In March, Reuters reported that several private equity firms, including Blackstone (BX), expressed interest in a potential acquisition of Whitestone."Whitestone's portfolio provides an attractive opportunity to further diversify Ares Real Estate's footprint with necessity-based retail centers in high-demand, supply-constrained metro regions across Arizona and Texas," David Roth, global head of real estate strategy and growth at Ares Real Estate, said in a statement. "Looking ahead, we are confident in Ares' ability to support and expand on the Whitestone portfolio and create value for both communities and investors."As of March 31, Whitestone's portfolio comprised 56 retail properties in Phoenix, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio.The transaction, which requires approval from Whitestone's shareholders, is expected to complete in the third quarter. Following completion, Whitestone's shares will no longer trade on the New York stock exchange."We are excited to reach this agreement, which delivers significant, immediate and certain value to our shareholders while positioning Whitestone's assets for continued success," Whitestone Chair Amy Feng said.In February, Whitestone said it expected core funds from operations to be in a range of $1.10 to $1.14 per share and operating partnership unit for 2026.

$ARES$WSR

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rebounds Over 3% Amid Fears of Ceasefire Collapse

Crude oil futures gained more than 3% on Thursday as markets assessed accusations from Tehran that US has already breached the two-week ceasefire deal.The front-month Murban crude contract rose 3.7% at $101.22 per barrel. Brent futures contract climbed 3.8% to $98.33/bbl."Prices rebounded as fighting in the Middle East continued, and the ceasefire outlook deteriorated, keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus," ING analysts noted.After crashing below $100 in the last session, oil prices are rebounding today as the fragile truce faces immediate accusations of non-compliance."Optimism over the ceasefire faded after Tehran said several terms of the agreement had been breached," ING analysts said.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on social media that the US has already violated the 10-point framework proposed by Tehran.In a Wednesday post on X, Ghalibaf said Washington had breached three clauses of a 10-point proposal put forward by Iran.He cited what he described as non-compliance with a ceasefire in Lebanon, the reported intrusion of a US drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of Iran's right to uranium enrichment.Despite the ceasefire deal, Wood Mackenzie analysts have said that oil and gas flows through the Middle East are still a long way off, with plenty of steps and processes that could last months."With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING analysts added.

Tadawul Shares End Week Subdued; Saudi Arabia's Industrial Production Rises in February

The Tadawul All Share Index closed Thursday muted at 0.04% in the green as investors assessed the latest Saudi Arabian industrial production volumes and business optimism indicator.Official preliminary data from Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics showed that the industrial production index rose 8.9% year over year in February. Month over month, industrial production edged down 0.2%."The index of oil activities in February 2026 increased by 11.5% compared to the same month of the previous year. The index of non-oil activities increased by 2.4%. Based on the month-on-month trend, the index for oil activities decreased by 0.1%, and the index of non-oil activities decreased by 0.4%," the statistics agency added.Meanwhile, the kingdom's business confidence index in March came in at 52.1 points, down from 60.7 in February. The separate confidence indices for the industry, construction and services all fell during the period but remained above 50 points.Zooming out, Israel launched attacks targeting Lebanon's Hezbollah. The strikes sparked concerns about the US-Iran ceasefire breaking down, with Iran warning that a deal would not be reached if Israel continued to bomb Lebanon.Back at home and on the corporate front, International Human Resources Co. (SASE:9545) secured a project to deliver human resources services to Elm Co. (SASE:7203) during the Hajj season. Shares of the human resources consulting company ticked up 3.02%, while the digital services company closed 1.21% lower.

^TASISASE:7203SASE:9545

Treasury90d ago

Alberta, Quebec Unlikely To Separate From Canada But May Drive Volatility In Currency, Bond Markets This Fall, Says Rosenberg Research

The Canadian provinces of Alberta and Quebec could plausibly hold referenda on sovereignty in the next six to 12 months -- with the Alberta referendum now likely to be held mid-October, and the Quebec provincial election possibly in early October, with the separatist Parti Quebecois modestly favored to win, said Rosenberg Research.Neither referendum is likely to receive majority support, as public support remains below 30% on average, noted Rosenberg Research.In addition, the Alberta referendum wouldn't be legally final even if -- hypothetically -- it were to pass, due to statutory and constitutional issues, stated Rosenberg.Quebec and Alberta bond spreads have modestly widened in the last few months, reflecting elevated risks, it added.The 1995 Quebec independence referendum created significant volatility in both federal and Quebec provincial bond spreads, which widened as the referendum date drew closer.These events will create event-driven volatility in fall 2026, and are a bearish pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie), according to Rosenberg. The bond market implications net out to be relatively "small" and don't change Rosenberg's bullish call on two-year Canadian bonds.

$CAD$CXY

Afreximbank Backs Dangote's Expansion to Double Refinery Capacity

The African Export-Import Bank has committed to anchoring the Dangote Group's Vision 2030 strategy, a massive industrial roadmap aimed at increasing the conglomerate's turnover to $100 billion by the end of the decade, the bank said on Wednesday.Central to this strategy is a transformative leap in energy production, with plans to more than double the capacity of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Nigeria from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd, it said.Beyond oil and gas, the group is targeting $40 billion in new investments to develop critical infrastructure, including subsea pipelines and ports, alongside new ventures in data centers and value-added mineral exports.The announcement coincided with the signing of a $2.5 billion facility underwritten by Afreximbank as part of a larger $4 billion senior syndicated term loan for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.

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UAE Equities Close Lower Ahead of Key US Economic Data

Trading in the United Arab Emirates ended in the red as markets await the release of a key US economic report later in the day.At the close of Thursday trading, the FTSE ADX General Index was down 0.330%, while the DFM General Index shed 1.45%.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release personal consumption expenditures price index data, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, for February on Thursday."After rising 0.3% in January and 2.8% on an annual basis, the PCE is expected to increase 0.4% in February and 2.8% year-over-year, potentially matching the annual increase at the start of the year," Stifel said in a note. "Excluding food and energy costs, the core PCE is also expected to increase 0.4% in February and 3.0% on an annual basis, potentially marking the smallest annual rise since December."On the geopolitical front, oil prices rose again amid worries of a fragile ceasefire deal between the US and Iran. Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon, with Iran stating that the attacks halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.Also dampening sentiment was US President Donald Trump's threats to impose an immediate 50% tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran, Reuters reported.Back home and on the corporate front, stocks of Two Point Zero Group (ADX:2POINTZERO) closed the session 2.89% in the red. The investment company's subsidiary, E Point Zero Holding, created a joint venture with Adani Green Energy to develop renewable energy projects in India.Dubai-listed Emirates Integrated Telecommunications (DFM:DU), d/b/a du, secured a new 2 billion-Emirati-dirham facility for general corporate purposes with local and international lenders. Shares of the telecommunications company closed the session 1.54% lower.

Treasury90d ago

Global Markets Return to "Reality" on Fragile Iran War Ceasefire, Says Scotiabank

Markets had their fun on Wednesday and on Thursday it's back to "reality," said Scotiabank.Position covering drove exaggerated market responses to the fragile United States-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday, noted the bank.It was only a matter of hours before doubts crept back into markets about how fragile the ceasefire is, stated Scotiabank.Oil is up about US$4 to US$5/barrel, pointed out the bank. Stocks are broadly but gently lower, with North American futures down about 0.25%, European cash markets down by 0.25% to 1.25% after Asian equities backpedaled.Currencies are mixed, added Scotiabank. Sovereign bond yields are higher by single digits across gilts and eurozone government bonds, as U.S. Treasuries and Canadian government bonds hold firm.

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Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BB$NEOG$SMPL$STZ$WDFC

Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Truce; Key Inflation Report on Deck

US equity markets were trending lower before the opening bell Thursday as investors assess uncertainty over the recent two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, and await a key inflation report.The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% each in premarket activity, while the Nasdaq was off 0.2%. The indexes finished Wednesday's trading in the green, recording their highest close in at least four weeks.In a Wednesday post on X, Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US violated three clauses of Tehran's 10-point ceasefire proposal. The violations include Israel's attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace and the denial of Tehran's right to enrich uranium, according to Ghalibaf."The deep historical distrust we hold toward the (US) stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments - a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again," Ghalibaf said. "In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable."In a late Wednesday post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump said US ships, aircraft and military personnel will "remain in and around Iran" until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with.""It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - no nuclear weapons and, the Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe," according to Trump.On Tuesday, Trump announced that he agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks, subject to Tehran agreeing to the complete and safe opening of the strait, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi had said in a statement that the country will allow "safe passage" through the strait during the two-week ceasefire through coordination with its armed forces and "with due consideration of technical limitations."Delegations from both countries are scheduled to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan on Friday to negotiate a "conclusive agreement to settle all disputes," Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Tuesday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.5% to $97.70 a barrel before the open, while Brent increased 3.3% to $97.87."The headlines may calm down first, but the real reset depends on what happens in the days ahead," Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said in a report Wednesday.The delayed personal income and outlays report for February is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET. The report includes the personal consumption expenditure core price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric.Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed Wednesday that participants emphasized the need for the central bank to be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy amid heightened macro risks. Most policymakers were concerned that a prolonged war could soften labor market conditions, possibly warranting policy easing, according to the minutes. However, persistent inflation amid higher oil prices could call for rate increases.Markets widely expect the Fed to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its next policy meeting later in April, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 0.5 basis points to 3.79% and the 10-year rate off 0.4 basis points to 4.29%.Thursday's economic calendar also has the delayed final estimate report for the fourth-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 am, as well as the weekly jobless claims report.Shares of Constellation Brands (STZ) declined 0.9% pre-bell after the beer and wine company issued a full-year earnings outlook below Wall Street's estimates.Neogen (NEOG), BlackBerry (BB) and Simply Good Foods (SMPL) report their latest financial results before the bell, among others. WD-40 (WDFC) posts its earnings after the markets close.Gold sipped 0.5% to $4,752 per troy ounce, while bitcoin nudged up 0.2% to $71,399.

Persian Gulf Uncertainty Damps European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked moderately lower midday Thursday as traders weighed Persian Gulf hostilities, rising oil prices, and an uncertain Strait of Hormuz opening.Oil stocks led gains on continental trading floors, while bank and tech shares lagged.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures in the red, and lower closes overnight on Asian exchanges.In other news, the US and Iranians are set for direct negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend, reported Turkey's Anadolu Agency, citing officials in Islamabad.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.7% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was down 1.7%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index lost 0.6%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index rose 1.2%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.8%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.7%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 1.3%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 0.4%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.9%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 0.8%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 2.98%.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 4.1% at $98.63 a barrel.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was up 1.2% at 25.01, indicating above-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a negative signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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Middle East Oil, Gas Output Recovery to Take Months Despite Hormuz Ceasefire, Warns Wood Mackenzie

After the ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran this week, a recovery in oil and gas flows through the Middle East is still a long way off, with plenty of steps and processes that could last months, according to a report by commodity analysts at Wood Mackenzie.The report said that 11 million barrels per day of upstream oil production remains shut in, meaning they are not currently operational, even as the underlying capacity remains intact. This cannot be restored until export routes normalize and vessel traffic resumes at scale.In order to bring these barrels back to market, "A 'workable system' of transit and shipowner confidence in the security of the transiting vessels is essential," said Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie.Gelder added that facilitating insurance, trade finance and "sustained inbound vessel transits" are key in restoring confidence in the Strait.He also noted that ballasting vessels, or ships that come in empty to pick up oil, will not be willing to do so, given the risk of getting trapped, if hostilities were to resume once again after the two week ceasefire.The report noted that as exports begin to ramp-up, storage will help facilitate upstream production and refining to restart activity in full-swing.However, it noted that not all countries have sufficient storage. As such, Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ramp up output quickly, while Iraq could take six to nine months to return to pre-conflict output levels due to reservoir and operational complexities.Coming to the global gas markets, the ceasefire may allow trapped LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit, offering limited near-term relief, according to Wood Mackenzie.For real structural change in supply, however, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has to restart its 12 operable trains, according to Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe Gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire," he said.The firm estimates that even if restart efforts begin in early May, full restoration of all 12 trains could take until the end of August, while damaged capacity at the South site may remain offline for years.Meanwhile, disruptions to domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE could further complicate regional supply dynamics, Marzec-Manser said.He warned that "sustained disruption at Habshan," Abu Dhabi's gas processing facility, could significantly tighten domestic gas availability, potentially forcing the UAE to cut reinjection volumes or even ramp up imports via the Dolphin pipeline system.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500

Oil, Ceasefire Views Damp Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia, Europe Off

Wall Street futures pointed moderately lower pre-bell Thursday, as traders weighed rising oil prices and sought clarity on Persian Gulf war outlooks.The Strait of Hormuz apparently remained closed to the vast majority of oil tanker traffic early Thursday.In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq declined 0.4% and the Dow Jones was off 0.4%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded higher at $99.35, up 5.2% in morning trades.Investors also await the personal consumption expenditures-core (PCE-core) price index for February, slated for release in Washington at 8:30 am ET. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric may provide clues to price pressures, but before the Middle East turmoils of March.Asian exchanges traded mostly lower overnight, while European bourses tracked moderately south midday on the continent.On the economic calendar, in addition to the PCE-core report, is the revised Q4 GDP bulletin, the weekly jobless claims bulletin, the February personal income and outlays report, and the Q4 corporate profit release, all at 8:30 am ET.In premarket action, Bitcoin traded at $71,431 and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.28%. Spot gold commanded $4,740 an ounce.

Germany's Manufacturing Production Contracts in February on Lower Pharmaceuticals, Electronics Output

Production in Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined month over month in February, even before the war in the Middle East began, as output from the pharmaceuticals and electronics industries weakened, provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Thursday.Real, price-adjusted manufacturing output dropped 0.3% in February, after seasonal and calendar changes, compared with the upwardly revised stagnation in January. The consensus estimate for February was a 0.9% rise.On a monthly basis, production of pharmaceuticals and computer, electronic, and optical products contracted 4.4% and 3.9%, respectively. Amid the cold winter weather, construction output slipped 1.2%, while automotive production improved 1.7%. Destatis data paints a picture of a "very reluctant, hesitant consumer," while the manufacturing sector struggles to gain positive momentum, said Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macro at ING.Annually, German manufacturing output after calendar adjustment was stable, against the revised 0.9% decrease in January. Excluding energy and construction, industrial production in February slipped 0.1% on the month and 0.6% on the year.In energy-intensive industries, which account for 17% of industrial gross value, production expanded 1.9% month over month and 0.1% on a yearly basis. Consumer goods production fell 1.5% sequentially, while the output of intermediate goods and capital goods rose by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Germany, one of Europe's largest net importers of energy, clocked a 0.3% monthly gain in energy production in February."All in all, February's macro data shows that even without the war in the Middle East, the German economy was unfortunately on track for yet another quarter of contraction. To make things worse, the war in the Middle East, no matter how sustainable yesterday's announced ceasefire will prove to be, will leave clear marks on the German economy over the next few months. As much as we were hoping to finally comment on some good economic news from Germany, it is a bit like waiting for a German train these days: definitely delayed and uncertain whether it will ever arrive," Brzeski concluded.

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^BSENifty 50BOM:532483BOM:540047NSE:CANBKNSE:DBL

Indian Equities Slip on Thursday Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.The BSE Sensex fell 1.2%, or 931.25 points, to finish Monday's session at 76,631.65, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped 0.9%, or 222.25 points, to 23,775.10.Investors were cautious after fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon reduced hopes for a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Canara Bank's (NSE:CANBK, BOM:532483) board has extended Hardeep Singh Ahluwalia's additional charge as managing director and CEO for three months until June 30.Dilip Buildcon (NSE:DBL, BOM:540047) joint venture DBL-RBL won a 2.68-billion-rupee contract from the Gujarat government. The project covers the design and construction of the Ged Barrage across the Sabarmati River, including protection and allied works.

Treasury90d ago

Canada's Provincial Bond Valuations "Hint" at An Oil Exposure Premium, Says National Bank

In a nod to recent Middle East turbulence, National Bank of Canada said it tested the significance and value of a Canadian province's relative energy-sector exposure.Notwithstanding a sharp re-pricing of crude oil on an 11th hour Iran war ceasefire, provincial bond valuations hint at an oil exposure premium, noted the bank.That's sensible enough, given the amount of above-plan resource revenue National Bank has been estimating, it stated.The bank likewise finds targeted evidence of political risk at the longer end of the provincial credit curve.

$CXY

Middle East War Dents Japan Consumer Confidence

Undercut by Middle East war and rising fuel prices, Japan's seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index declined to 33.3 in March, down from 39.7 in February, reported the Cabinet Office on Thursday.Consumer confidence index readings above 50 indicate optimism and improved mood, while results below 50 reflect pessimism.In the subcategories, the March index for "overall livelihood" logged 29.7 in March, down from 39.5 in February.For "income growth," the consumer index struck 39.8 in March, off from 42.3 in February, said the Cabinet Office.The "employment" index posted at 37.6 in March, off from 43.3 in the previous month.And the "willingness to buy durable goods" index declined to 26.0 in March, off from 33.7 in February, said the Cabinet Office.With fuel bills in mind, 93.1% of survey respondents in March expected overall prices to rise in the next 12 months, noted the Cabinet Office.The consumer confidence index survey was conducted on March 15, and polled 8,400 households, with a 76.3% response rate, added the Cabinet Office.The declining consumer confidence report followed on the heels of a soft Economy Watchers bulletin, issued on Wednesday.Japan's Economy Watchers Survey index fell to 42.2 in March from 48.9 in February, striking the lowest level since February 2022.The monthly Japan Economy Watchers Survey measures the economic sentiment of workers in consumer-facing industries, such as taxi drivers, hotel staff, and restaurant employees.

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