After having risen to a 44-month high of 51.8 in February, the global manufacturing PMI dropped back to 51.3 in March, notes ABN Amro.
In a note to clients the bank said this seems to be, to a large extent, related to the escalation of the conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran, which started on Feb. 28
Accoring to ABN Amro, the deterioration in March was led by emerging markets (EM), with the EM aggregate falling back to 50.7 from February's 52.0.
The bank said this was partly driven by China's manufacturing PMI from RatingDog (included in the global index), which fell back to 50.8 following a one-month surge to 52.1 in February. This largely reflects a weakening of export prospects due to the Iran conflict, with China's export subindex dropping sharply again following a spike in February, it added.
ABN Amro noted the manufacturing PMI for India dropped even more sharply, reflecting the country's large dependence on oil imports coming from the Middle East.
The agreed ceasefire between the U.S./Israel and Iran could mean that the impact from the conflict ultimately proves temporary, although the agreement still looks fragile and it is too early for strong conclusions on this point, noted the bank.