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Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Unexpectedly Revised Lower Amid Weaker Consumer Spending

The US economy expanded at a slower rate in the fourth quarter than previously projected, as consumer spending growth decelerated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate showed Thursday.Real gross domestic product increased at a 0.5% annualized rate in the December quarter, down from the 0.7% growth reported in the second estimate. The consensus was for the growth rate to be left unrevised in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The final reading marks the slowest growth rate in three quarters and follows a 4.4% expansion in the previous quarter, according to government data. The report was delayed due to last year's US federal government shutdown.Growth in consumer spending -- as measured by personal consumption expenditures -- was revised to 1.9% from the 2% rate previously reported, which Wall Street also expected would not change."The downward revision to (fourth-quarter) GDP is not a major concern, as it was driven by the volatile inventory component," Oxford Economics Chief US Economist Michael Pearce said in remarks e-mailed to. "Gross domestic income -- a better gauge of underlying activity -- and gross domestic output of private business showed the core of the economy was still expanding at a healthy pace at the end of last year."Fourth-quarter headline PCE inflation growth was left unchanged at 2.9%. Core PCE inflation -- which excludes the volatile food and energy components -- was also unrevised at 2.7%, official data showed.In 2025, real GDP grew 2.1%, the same rate as previously forecast, according to the report.The BEA said in a separate report Thursday that US inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher. Analysts expect price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict.

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Thursday vs 3:00 Wednesday2yr 100-04 vs 100-05; 3.777% vs 3.790%5yr 99-26+ vs 99-25+; 3.911% vs 3.918%10yr 98-22 vs 98-21+; 4.287% vs 4.289%30yr 97-23 vs 97-27+; 4.895% vs 4.885%2/10 50.809 bps vs 49.745 bps5/30 98.163 bps vs 96.448 bps

Oil & Energy74d ago

NATO Chief Says 34-Nation Coalition Moves to Safeguard Hormuz Shipping

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Thursday a 34-country coalition led by the UK is aligning with the US to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open for global trade.Rutte made the remarks at the Ronald Reagan Institute's Center for Peace Through Strength.Rutte said UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed, "we have to bring together a coalition... to make sure that the principle of free shipping... is upheld," highlighting coordinated action with the US.He said contributions differ by nation, adding the Netherlands will likely deploy "mine hunters... and radar technology," describing the effort as "practical support" to secure shipping lanes.Rutte added conditions remain uncertain, noting the situation is "two days into the ceasefire," and developments in shipping lanes will be reviewed "day by day" as operations evolve.The US president is focused on reopening routes quickly, adding that the mission aims "to make sure that this principle of free shipping is maintained" beyond immediate military coordination.Rutte added the coalition spans beyond NATO, noting participation from Japan, South Korea, Australia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, calling it a broad-based international maritime effort.He said the UK-led group is aligning "military, political and economic tools," describing it as a strategic shift with European allies taking stronger roles in regional and global security.Participating nations agree that the Strait must not close. Rutte stressed "we cannot accept the strait to be closed," underscoring urgency around maintaining uninterrupted maritime access.Rutte said even smaller maritime nations contribute meaningfully, noting countries like the Netherlands remain relevant, while NATO allies form the bulk of the coalition securing the vital route.

Netflix Set to Beat 2026 Guidance Amid Early US Price Increases, UBS Says

Netflix (NFLX) may outperform its own guidance for the full year as the impact of earlier-than-expected price increases takes hold, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Thursday.Last month, the company increased prices across its US plans, including raising its ad-supported standard tier to $8.99 per month from $7.99. The price of its standard plan without ads rose by $2 to $19.99 a month, while the premium tier now costs $26.99, compared with $24.99 previously.These price increases offer upside potential for 2026 estimates, UBS analysts including John Hodulik wrote.UBS projects currency neutral revenue growth of 14% with a 32.6% margin rate for 2026, compared with guidance that called for a 11% to 13% revenue increase and a 31.5% margin.BofA Securities previously said that Netflix's most recent round of price increases highlighted the streaming giant's pricing power.The company is likely to roll out more hikes in other major markets that are expected to boost average revenue per member, according to the UBS note.The widening price gap between plans with and without ads, along with new demand-side platform relations with companies including Amazon (AMZN), will likely double Netflix's ad-supported revenue in 2026, Hodulik said."While Netflix continues to slowly grow share of total TV viewing in the US, its share of streaming viewership remains under pressure given growth in (free ad-supported television)," Hodulik added.In February, Netflix dropped its plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which will now be acquired by Paramount Skydance (PSKY)."With the Warner Bros bid behind it, we believe Netflix is still positioned to benefit from its solid slate of content this year including the return of four of its top 20 series, new films such as War Machine and The Rip, a growing list of live events and the ramp in video games," Hodulik said.Shares of Netflix were up 2.5% in recent trading on Thursday.Price: $101.64, Change: $+2.25, Percent Change: +2.26%

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Equities Rise Intraday as US-Iran Ceasefire Holds Amid Hormuz Uncertainty

US benchmark equity indexes were higher intraday as a recent two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran appeared to be holding, though oil prices rebounded as access to the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted.The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.8% each at 48,279.5 and 22,811.7, respectively, after midday Thursday. The S&P 500 added 0.7% to 6,829. Barring energy, all sectors were in the green, led by consumer discretionary.West Texas Intermediate crude was up 2.3% at $96.54 a barrel intraday. The benchmark hit up to $102.70 a barrel earlier in the session. Brent crude edged up 0.6% to $94.96 per barrel.The rebound in oil prices follows the sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 in the previous session as the US and Iran agreed to temporarily halt hostilities that had gripped the Middle East since the end of February."The Strait of Hormuz is not open," Abu Dhabi National Oil Chief Executive Sultan Al Jaber said in a LinkedIn post Thursday. "Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled."Iranian state media previously reported that transit through the strait was halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would negotiate with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah, CNN reported Thursday."We continue to contend that actual transit levels through the waterway will remain significantly depressed given that Iran is insisting vessels must coordinate with its military or face destruction," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.Officials from Washington and Tehran are expected to meet this weekend in Pakistan, which helped broker the truce.US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down two basis points at 4.27% and the two-year rate dropping 3.4 basis points to 3.76%.In economic news, US inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher, with analysts expecting price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric -- which excludes food and energy -- rose 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January's reading. Annual growth slowed to 3% from 3.1%. All inflation prints met estimates in Bloomberg-compiled surveys."With headline inflation likely to test 4% soon, there is little chance the Fed will ease policy in the near term," BMO Capital Markets said in a note.Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US rose more than expected, while continuing claims reached the lowest level since May 2024, government data showed."The latest jobless claims data offer no evidence that the (US-Israel) war with Iran has had a notable impact on the labor market," Oxford Economics said in a note. "We don't think an upside surprise in one week is sending a signal that labor market conditions are softening."In company news, CoreWeave (CRWV) agreed to supply artificial intelligence cloud capacity to Meta Platforms (META) in a $21 billion deal as the companies expanded their partnership amid robust demand for infrastructure supporting AI workloads. CoreWeave shares were up 6.1% intraday, while Meta rose 3%.Ares Management (ARES) agreed to acquire and take private Whitestone REIT (WSR) in an all-cash deal worth about $1.7 billion. Whitestone shares jumped 11%, while Ares advanced 0.5%.Chevron (CVX) said it expected higher commodity prices driven by the Middle East conflict to boost first-quarter earnings in its upstream segment by up to $2.2 billion, though timing impacts could weigh on the oil giant's bottom line. The company's shares were down 1.4% intraday, among the worst performers on the Dow.Gold was up 0.9% at $4,819 per troy ounce, while silver advanced 1.5% to $76.49 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CRWV$META

US Equity Indexes Rise Amid Reports of Hormuz Opening, Israel's Plans to Talk With Lebanon

US equity indexes rose after midday Thursday amid media reports that the Strait of Hormuz is open and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tel Aviv will begin direct talks with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 22,815.1, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 6,830.9 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 0.8% to 48,308.4, after staging a strong rally on Wednesday. All sectors except energy and healthcare rose intraday, while consumer discretionary, utilities, and real estate led the gainers.All three mainstream indexes had opened lower on Thursday, reflecting Israel's attacks on Lebanon on Wednesday that, according to Reuters, killed more than 250 people. However, after midday, the equity gauges turned the corner.This comes as the UK's ITV reported that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said the Strait of Hormuz is open. Any civilian vessel can pass with guidance from the Iranian authorities, Khatibzadeh told ITV.Meanwhile, CNN reported that the two-week ceasefire appeared to be on track, with fewer attacks reported across the Middle East on Thursday.Further, Netanyahu's proposal, as per the CNN report, to begin talks with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, a militant group reportedly fighting as Iran's proxy, addressed concerns raised by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Tel Aviv's strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday violated the truce deal and, more importantly, would render the upcoming US-Iran peace negotiations in Islamabad meaningless, Reuters cited Pezeshkian as saying.West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures advanced 2.2% to $96.52, after trading more than 7% higher earlier in the session. Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $95.07, after climbing almost 5% intraday.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 2.6 basis points to 4.27%. The two-year rate dropped 3.6 basis points to 3.76%.In precious metals, gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,821.1 and silver futures climbed 1.5% to $76.54.In economic news, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 0.4%, and as expected, the year-over-year rate remained at 2.8%. The price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January.The core PCE price index increased by 0.4%, as expected, and the same as in January. The year-over-year rate dropped to 3% from 3.1% in the previous month.US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised lower to a 0.5% increase in Q4 from a 0.7% gain in the second estimate, compared with estimates for no revision in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.US initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 in the week ended April 4 from an upwardly revised 203,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for 210,000 in a Bloomberg-compiled poll.In company news, CoreWeave (CRWV) said it signed an agreement with Meta Platforms (META) to provide artificial intelligence cloud capacity through December 2032 for about $21 billion. Shares of CoreWeave and Meta were up 6.5% and 3.1%, respectively.

Oil Prices Rebound as Optimism Around US-Iran Truce Wanes

Oil prices increased Thursday, with US crude crossing $100 a barrel as shipment activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted despite a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran.West Texas Intermediate crude traded as much as $102.70 a barrel on Thursday, and was last up 3.4% at $97.57. Brent crude climbed 0.9% to $95.61, having hit $99.50 earlier in the session.The rebound in oil prices follows the sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 in the previous session as the US and Iran agreed to temporarily halt hostilities that had gripped the Middle East.As part of the ceasefire, Washington demanded the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the crucial waterway, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.But access to the strait remained restricted, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Sultan Al Jaber said in a LinkedIn post Thursday."The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," said Al Jaber, who also serves as the United Arab Emirates minister of industry and advanced technology.Iranian state media previously reported that transit through the strait was halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would negotiate with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah, CNN reported on Thursday.Meanwhile, Gulf countries, including the UAE, continued to face attacks despite the ceasefire, RBC Capital Markets said in a report e-mailed toon Thursday."We continue to contend that actual transit levels through the waterway will remain significantly depressed given that Iran is insisting vessels must coordinate with its military or face destruction," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC, said.Officials from Washington and Tehran are expected to meet this weekend in Pakistan, which helped broker the truce.Overnight, President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that US ships, aircraft and military personnel will remain in and around Iran until the "real agreement reached is fully complied with.""With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING Bank said in a note.

Oil & Energy74d ago

US Crude Shipments Poised to Break 5 Million b/d Record in May, Bloomberg Analysis Says

US crude exports are set to reach 5 million barrels per day in May as global supply disruptions drive demand, Bloomberg said in a Thursday analysis.Shipments from the US Gulf Coast are already nearing 4.9 million b/d in April, up from about 3.97 million b/d in March, according to the analysis.The increase reflects stronger overseas demand, particularly from buyers seeking alternatives to constrained Middle Eastern crude supplies, according to the report.Analysts expect flows to rise further in May, supported by a growing number of very large crude carriers loading in the region to meet stronger export demand.Matt Smith, Kpler's commodity research director, said exports in May may climb past 5 million b/d, topping the earlier 4.5 million peak, supported by continued strong buying interest from Asia, according to the analysis.The surge comes as global markets face severe supply tightness, with US exports playing a key role in stabilizing flows amid geopolitical disruptions, according to the analysis.With summer demand approaching, rising exports could force US refiners to pay more to retain supply, while gasoline prices above $4 per gallon may increase political pressure ahead of midterm elections.Exports have briefly neared 5 million b/d, according to the EIA, but haven't held that level over a month, suggesting May could mark the first sustained period near that threshold, according to the analysis.Around 28 supertankers have been booked for May loadings, far above the typical five at this time of the month, the analysis added.Some projections suggest exports could climb as high as 5.3 million b/d if current vessel scheduling trends hold, supported by continued buying interest from Asia.A recent shipment saw the VLCC Asian Progress VI fixed to carry crude from Occidental Petroleum to East Asia for about $19 million, the analysis added, citing a Bloomberg note.Despite strong demand, the US export system is nearing capacity limits, with logistical challenges beginning to constrain further growth, the analysis said.Limited vessel availability, a shortage of smaller feeder ships, and rising freight costs could cap exports near 5.5 million b/d without additional shipping capacity, according to the analysis.

Oil & Energy74d ago

Market Chatter: Yanbu Port Loadings Persist After Attack on Key Saudi Pipeline

Crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port continued Thursday despite an attack on the 7 million barrels per day East-West pipeline, Reuters reported Thursday, citing three sources.Cargo loadings at the Red Sea terminal were continuing after the pipeline strike, with two buyers and one trading source indicating no immediate disruption to export operations.Iran carried out the attack shortly after a ceasefire agreement, targeting the pipeline that serves as Saudi Arabia's main alternative export route, an industry source told Reuters on Wednesday.The source said pipeline flows were expected to be disrupted, with authorities still evaluating the extent of the damage following the incident.Yanbu has become a critical outlet as the Strait of Hormuz faces effective closure, limiting shipments from the Gulf and shifting export reliance toward the Red Sea.Loadings at Yanbu averaged about 3.3 mmb/d in March, sharply higher than about 800,000 b/d in February, with the port capable of exporting up to 5 mmb/d, the report added, citing Kpler's data.Saudi Aramco is diverting about 2 mmb/d of crude flowing through the pipeline to supply its refineries in western Saudi Arabia, according to the report.has reached out to Saudi Aramco for any comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise, Continuing Applications Reach Lowest Since May 2024

Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US rose more than expected, while continuing claims reached the lowest level since May 2024, government data showed Thursday.For the week through April 4, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims increased by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week's average that was adjusted upwards by 1,000, the Department of Labor said. The consensus was for a 210,000 reading in a Bloomberg poll.The four-week moving average totaled 209,500, up by 1,500 from the prior week's average that was revised higher by 250. Unadjusted claims rose by 16,637 to 202,895, the DOL said."The latest jobless claims data offer no evidence that the (US-Israel) war with Iran has had a notable impact on the labor market," Oxford Economics Lead US Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in remarks e-mailed to. "We don't think an upside surprise in one week is sending a signal that labor market conditions are softening."Seasonally adjusted continuing claims for the week ended March 28 reached 1.79 million, the lowest level since May 11, 2024, and lagging Wall Street's expectations of 1.83 million. Continuing claims dropped by 38,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 9,000, according to the DOL. The four-week moving average fell by 13,250 to about 1.82 million."Continued claims are trending lower, reflecting the general drift lower of initial claims since last fall," Vanden Houten said.Earlier this month, official data showed that the US economy added more jobs than expected in March, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% sequentially.On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed that monetary policymakers emphasized the need to remain "nimble" in adjusting interest rates in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Iran war, which started at the end of February.On Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, though the truce appears fragile.

US 30-Year Auction High Yield Rises From Previous Month, Demand Lower

The US Treasury's 30-year auction hit a high yield of 4.876% on Thursday, up from the 4.871% high in the previous auction.The bid to cover ratio for the auction was 2.39, below the 2.45 ratio in the previous auction.Dealers represented 54.35% of the bids, with direct bidders at 12.87% and indirect bidders at 32.78%.For takedown, dealers took 11.62%, with direct bidders at 24.23% and indirect bidders at 64.14%.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH

Exchange-Traded Funds Edge Higher as US Equities Rise After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV advanced. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 0.4%.US equity indexes rose in midday trading on Thursday as a fragile Iran ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan appears to be largely holding.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each dropped about 1.1%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) slipped 0.3%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.2% lower, while iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) fell 0.2%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) advanced 0.8%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was up 1.5%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed up 1.2%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 1.4%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 3.5%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 0.2%. Natural gas fell 2.1%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was down 2.2%.Gold on Comex was up 0.7%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained 1.2%. Silver rose 1.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 2% higher.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 0.8%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added 0.9%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was 0.8% higher.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) advanced 1.5%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 1.5%, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) was up 0.8%.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.1%, and iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) also edged higher. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) added 0.3%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) climbed 1.4%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) rose 1.3%, and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) was up 0.8%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 0.7%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) added 1%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) gained 0.1%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was up 0.6%.

US 30-Year High Yield 4.876% vs 4.871% Previous; Bid/Cover 2.39 vs 2.45 Previous

Petro-Victory Energy Increases a Shares for Debt Transaction

Petro-Victory Energy (VRY.V) on Thursday said it revised terms to the debt settlement transaction of US$500,000 announced on March 22.The company said it now plans to enter into a debt settlement agreement with 579 Max Ltd to settle outstanding debts of US$1 million owing to the lender by issuing 2.04-million shares of the company at a deemed price of C$0.68 each.The company said the closing of the shares-for-debt transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the exchange approval.The company plans to close the shares-for-debt transaction as soon as practicable.The company's shares last traded April 8, closing at $0.65 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

$VRY.V

Chevron Flags Tailwind to Quarterly Upstream Earnings From Higher Commodity Prices

Chevron (CVX) expects higher commodity prices driven by the Middle East conflict to boost first-quarter earnings in its upstream segment by up to $2.2 billion, though timing impacts could weigh on the oil giant's bottom line.Elevated oil prices are projected to benefit upstream segment earnings by $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in the March quarter, compared with the previous three-month period, the company said in a regulatory filing Thursday.Crude prices resumed their upward trend Thursday amid uncertainty over the two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran announced Tuesday. The war started at the end of February, sending energy prices soaring amid the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 4.5% higher intraday at $98.67 a barrel, while Brent increased 1.7% to $96.37, well above pre-war levels.Chevron said that timing effects linked to hedging and accounting in a rising commodity price environment are "generally negative," potentially impacting first-quarter earnings and cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, by roughly $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion."The majority of these effects are in the downstream segment and are expected to unwind in future periods," the company said in the filing.Chevron shares were down 1.2% intraday, reducing its year-to-date gain to about 26%.The company expects downstream earnings to include a charge of about $350 million to $400 million tied to a litigation reserve related to ceased operations, according to the filing.First-quarter upstream oil-equivalent production is forecast to be in a range of 3.8 million barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels, mainly reflecting downtime at Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil project and reduced production in the Middle East, Chevron said.The company expects to report first-quarter results by May 1.On Wednesday, larger rival Exxon Mobil (XOM) flagged that production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict could lower its global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter. The company also said it expected the surge in energy prices to boost upstream earnings.Price: $191.94, Change: $-0.95, Percent Change: -0.49%

$CVX$XOM

Inflation Accelerates in February, Real Consumer Spending Edges Higher

US inflation accelerated sequentially in February as real consumer spending edged higher, with analysts expecting price pressures to intensify due to the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict.The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.4% month over month in February following a 0.3% gain in the prior month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. On a yearly basis, the PCE price index held steady at 2.8% growth.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January. Annual growth slowed to 3% from 3.1%. All inflation prints met estimates in Bloomberg-compiled surveys."Core prices are actually gaining momentum, up 4.4% annualized the past three months, compared with 3.4% in the past six months," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. "And this is before spillover pressures from the Iran war."The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, apparently pausing hostilities that spread across the Middle East and boosted energy prices. Officials from Washington and Tehran are set to meet in Pakistan this weekend amid reports of ceasefire violations."Headline inflation is expected to jump on higher (gasoline) prices in March, however, it's likely too soon for the second order price effects to show up in core inflation," Ksenia Bushmeneva, economist at TD Economics, said in a report.Inflation-adjusted real consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, slower than the Street's estimate of a 0.2% gain and following a flat reading in January."With headline inflation likely to test 4% soon, there is little chance the Fed will ease policy in the near term," Guatieri said.Markets widely expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged later this month, the CME FedWatch tool showed.The US central bank should be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Middle East conflict, minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 meeting showed Wednesday.

Average Asking Rent in Canada Falls to A 35-Month Low in March, Says Report

Average asking rent in Canada fell to a 35-month low of $2,008 in March, said Rentals.ca and Urbanation.The year-over-year decline in rents, an average of $112, or 5.3%, was the largest in nearly five years, representing the 18th-consecutive month of falling rents, they noted in a report.Rents fell by 1.1% from February and have declined by 2.5% since the start of the year. However, key markets of Vancouver, Ottawa, and Montreal saw modest month-over-month increases, while rents remained down year-over-year.Purpose-built rentals remained the most stable on an annual basis, declining 3.9% to an average of $2,005, but saw the largest decline on a month-over-month basis, falling 1.2% from February.Average rents for all unit types continued to fall across the most populous provinces, down 5.4% in Ontario, 5.1% in British Columbia, 4.4% in Alberta, and 2.1% in Quebec. However, increases were seen in Nova Scotia (+3.3%), Saskatchewan (+2.7%) and Manitoba (+2.1%).

$CXY

S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$BB.TO$GTWO.TO

TSX Down 72 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Lower

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 72 points at midday, with most sectors lower.The worst performers are the telecoms sector and energy, down 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively.Financials and industrials are the biggest gainers, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.The tenuous two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is holding, albeit by a thread, as attacks on Lebanon continue and Iran says traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted to around a dozen ships per day (versus over 100 before the war). Formal peace talks begin Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan to try to bridge the seemingly large differences between the U.S.'s 15-point and Iran's 10-point plans.In company news, G2 Goldfields (GTWO.TO) has jumped near 74% to $10.46 after G Mining Ventures (GMIN.TO) said this morning it is acquiring the company in a $3.0 billion all-share transaction with G2 shareholders receiving 0.212 GMIN common shares per G2 share held. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of this year.BlackBerry (BB.TO) is up 11% to $5.45 after it reported better than expected revenues for the fourth quarter, led by its QNX unit, and forecast better than expected growth in fiscal 2027.