US Markets
Update: Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged; Powell Says He'll Stay on as Governor
(Updates to include Jerome Powell's announcement that he'll stay on, and add TD Economics' commentary.)The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark lending rate steady on Wednesday, saying the Middle East conflict is fueling uncertainty around the US economic outlook.The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, in line with Wall Street's expectations. This marked the FOMC's third consecutive pause.Last year, it delivered three back-to-back 25-basis-point cuts amid concerns about the labor market."Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," the FOMC said Wednesday following its two-day meeting.In a post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will stay on as a Fed governor for an indefinite period after his term as Fed chief expires on May 15.US Attorney Jeanine Pirro recently closed a criminal investigation into Powell and instead asked the Fed's internal watchdog, the Office of Inspector General, to investigate cost overruns in the renovation of the central bank's Washington headquarters."I've said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that," Powell said. "I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented from the majority at the meeting, preferring to reduce rates by a quarter percentage point, the FOMC said. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported the policy decision, but opposed including an easing bias in the statement.The FOMC said job gains remained low "on average," largely reiterating its previous assessment, while pointing out "elevated" inflation amid higher energy prices. Last month, the Fed described inflation as "somewhat elevated."The committee said that the unemployment rate had been "little changed" in recent months."In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the FOMC said, reiterating its previous stance.There were only minor changes to the policy statement, but overall sentiment "leaned slightly hawkish, with several participants voting against maintaining the current easing bias," TD Economics said in a report.Earlier in the day, the US Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair to the Republican-controlled Senate.Warsh is US President Donald Trump's pick to replace Powell. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for the central bank's cautious view on lowering interest rates."It seems very unlikely that a Warsh Fed will quickly pivot to lowering interest rates," TD Senior Economist Thomas Feltmate said in a note. "Decisions are made by a majority vote, and it's becoming clear that many participants are reluctant to take rates any lower amid a resilient economy and still elevated inflationary pressures."Fed policymakers' next meeting is scheduled for June 16-17."We see the Fed staying on hold through at least the summer, with the potential for more rate cuts later this year should inflation show more compelling evidence of moving back towards the Fed's 2% target," Feltmate said.US consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March as the US-Israel war with Iran sent energy prices higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month.Oil prices rallied Wednesday, with Brent approaching $120 per barrel after Trump reportedly rejected Iran's proposal to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports.