International
Asia Week Ahead: Inflation Prints; GDP Estimates; and Trade Balance
For the week ahead in Asia, inflation, trade and growth data will be in focus as investors assess the region's economic momentum.The week opens with Japan's revised first-quarter GDP figures, followed by trade data from China and Taiwan on Tuesday.Mid-week, China's consumer and producer inflation reports will dominate headlines, while Japan will release producer price data.Thursday will be led by unemployment figures from South Korea and Malaysia, before Friday brings India's inflation report.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 8The week was off to a relatively light, but notable start with Japan's first-quarter GDP growth rate.Japan's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the first quarter, according to final data released by the Cabinet Office. The reading was revised down from the preliminary estimate of 2.1% growth, but exceeded the market consensus forecast for a 1.3% increase, according to Trading Economics.The data comes as attention turns to the Bank of Japan's June 15-16 policy meeting, where policymakers are expected to consider another interest-rate increase. The growth figures are unlikely to derail expectations for further policy tightening.TUESDAY, June 9Data readouts will pick up Tuesday, starting with China's trade figures for May.Economists at ING said they expect China's exports to rise 19.5% year-on year and imports to gain 36.4% for a trade surplus of $86.5 billion. The surplus would be an increase from the $84.8 billion recorded in April, thanks in part to higher tech prices, which are boosting both export and import prices, ING said.Taiwan will similarly report trade figures, with ING expecting the island nation's trade surplus to rise to $15.5 billion from $14.4 billion in April. "Strong export orders from previous months suggest external demand remains robust amid the AI boom," ING said in a preview.Markets will be watching for any revisions to South Korea's first-quarter GDP growth rate when the Bank of Korea releases its final estimate on Tuesday.The central bank's advance estimate indicated that South Korea's real GDP increased 3.6% annually and 1.7% on a quarterly basis.In Australia, a pair of reports will capture business and consumer sentiment, while in the Philippines, unemployment stats will be due.Other key data scheduled for the day include Japan's machine tool orders.WEDNESDAY, June 10China's consumer and producer price inflation will dominate headlines Wednesday.Consumer prices are expected to show an uptick of 1.3% year on year in May from 1.2% a month prior, reflecting higher manufacturers' input and output prices due to the Middle East conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported.Japan will similarly report its May producer prices, with analysts expecting the PPI to accelerate to 5.5% year on year from 4.9% in April, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Indonesia will release its May consumer confidence report on the same day.THURSDAY, June 11Unemployment data from South Korea and Malaysia will be the highlight of the day.According to Trading Economics, South Korea's unemployment rate could remain unchanged at 2.80% in May. The platform similarly forecasted that Malaysia's unemployment would remain steady at 2.90%, a level it has held since November 2025.A forward-looking report on consumer inflation expectations will be due in Australia. According to Trading Economics, consumer inflation expectations could rise to 6.5% for June from the 5.6% estimated in May.Meanwhile, Indonesia will report its retail sales stats for April.FRIDAY, June 12India's May inflation data will be in the news Friday.Economists at ING said they expect consumer prices to pick up to 3.9% year on year from the 3.48% recorded in the month prior due to a rise in gasoline prices. Still, the figure would be below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target."The key risk to the outlook lies in potential second-round effects on food inflation. Fertiliser shortages, alongside the rising probability of an El Niño event, could exert upward pressure on food prices in the coming months and warrant close monitoring," ING said in a preview.Friday will also feature industrial production reports from Japan, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, with Malaysia additionally reporting its retail sales stats for April.In Thailand, the consumer confidence report for May will be due.On the activity front, the Business NZ manufacturing purchasing managers' index report will be due in New Zealand. CommBank said it expects manufacturing activity in May to stabilize, or even lift somewhat, given a decline in fuel prices over late April and May.The Business NZ PMI previously dropped to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March.
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