Commodities
Dangote Maintenance Cuts July Refinery Runs, Curtails Product Exports, Kpler Says
Nigeria's Dangote Refinery output fell to a three-month low in July as maintenance sharply reduced crude processing rates and curtailed refined product exports, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said in a note on Tuesday.Crude runs have declined to around 350,000-400,000 barrels per day since July 10, limiting exports of gasoline, jet fuel and gasoil at a time when global refined product markets remain tight.Dangote Refinery has emerged as a key swing supplier to the Atlantic Basin since March, increasing exports as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted regional product flows. The refinery's jet fuel exports to Europe became particularly important as buyers sought alternative supplies.Following crude distillation unit and residue fluid catalytic cracking unit maintenance in February, crude runs increased steadily to 600,000-650,000 bpd, with June throughput approaching the refinery's expanded 700,000 bpd capacity. However, operational constraints at the refinery's 204,000 bpd RFCC continued to limit conversion efficiency.The latest slowdown was triggered by maintenance linked to the refinery's flue gas steam generator. Unlike previous outages, the disruption is not directly related to the RFCC but has constrained overall refinery operations. Since July 10, the CDU has been operating at around 50% throughput, while RFCC utilization has fallen to approximately 55%, Ritolia said.Kpler has revised its July crude throughput estimate to around 450,000 bpd, down from a previous forecast of 650,000 bpd. The reduction is expected to result in a shortfall of approximately 75,000 bpd of gasoline, 50,000 bpd of jet fuel and 40,000 bpd of gasoil.The slowdown has pushed Dangote's seaborne refined product exports to their lowest level in three months, removing a significant source of Atlantic Basin supply as lower Russian refinery exports and constrained Middle Eastern Gulf flows continue to tighten markets.Kpler expects maintenance to conclude in the final week of July, with the CDU returning to full rates shortly thereafter. RFCC operations are expected to gradually recover to 80%-90% utilization by early August, supporting a rebound in refinery runs to around 650,000-675,000 bpd during August and September.However, Kpler said operational reliability remains a key risk, with the RFCC and associated units experiencing repeated maintenance cycles after several weeks of operation since start-up.