Oil & Energy
Crude Posts Weekly Loss on Middle East Ceasefire Progress, US-Iran Peace Signals
Global oil benchmarks fell on Friday as volatile swings tied to Middle East ceasefire talks and an imminent peace deal continued to erase geopolitical risk premiums.West Texas Intermediate settled at $84.29 per barrel, down from $90.25/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $86.85/bbl, down from $93.03/bbl a week earlier.Brent crude futures fell 6.70% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate futures declined 6.25% over the week.On Monday, early 5% gains were completely pared back following an announcement from Iran's military that its first wave of strikes against Israel had concluded, which coincided with claims from US President Donald Trump that both sides were actively pursuing an immediate ceasefire.Despite subsequent stark warnings from Tehran of harsher retaliation if Israel struck Lebanon, Trump insisted that peace negotiations were moving quickly, even though a US naval blockade remained in place.By Tuesday, global oil prices bottomed out at a more than one-week low as geopolitical tensions eased, further supported by reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the country would hold its fire against Iran for the time being.Demand indicators painted a mixed picture. Data from India's oil ministry showed fuel consumption fell to 19.93 million metric tons in May from 21.31 million metric tons during the same period last year, although it marked an increase from April.Concurrently, Kpler strategists highlighted that US crude exports hit a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May, driven by Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and heavy Gulf of Mexico output, though a June slowdown is anticipated.The downward trajectory temporarily reversed on Wednesday, with crude futures climbing over 1% as a renewed rhetorical escalation between the US and Iran cast doubt on any imminent peace.On the supply front, the American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp 9.12-million-barrel draw in US inventories.Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, trimming its 2026 global demand forecast by 1.1 million b/d due to high retail fuel prices.The agency modeled that restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would incrementally resume in Q3 2026, though full normalization could stretch into early 2027.Prices climbed further on Thursday, propelled by President Trump's sudden threats of imminent military strikes against Iran and a reported seizure of the Kharg Island infrastructure, offsetting a bearish demand forecast from OPEC, which lowered its 2026 growth outlook to 1 million b/d.The upward momentum was also reinforced by official EIA data confirming a 7.2-million-barrel drop in US crude oil inventories to 426.5 million barrels.However, on Friday oil benchmarks slumped below $90/bbl after Trump posted on Truth Social that he had canceled the scheduled Thursday night strikes.Later, during an Oval Office interaction Trump said that Washington had reached a "great settlement" to end the war with Iran.On Friday, conflicting claims emerged over media reports of the draft memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iran had inaccurately portrayed the terms discussed between the two sides, adding that the terms "have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing."Shortly after, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi responded to growing media speculation and separately signaled progress in negotiations on the proposed Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in a post on X, which Trump later reposted on Truth Social."The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer," Araghchi said, adding that media should refrain from speculation until finalization.Pakistan, acting as a key mediator, said an "incessant misinformation campaign" was underway to sabotage the deal, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stating that a final agreed text had been reached and Islamabad was working with both sides on next steps."Peace has never been this close as it is now," he posted on X.The Islamabad MoU is reportedly expected to be signed on Sunday in Geneva.Market analysts at ING expressed skepticism about the deal's stability, warning that seasonally stronger demand could still push prices to $120/bbl-$130/bbl by late July if the Strait of Hormuz does not officially reopen.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count rose by two from 431 the previous week to 433, in the week ending June 12, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday.The US had 439 oil rigs in operation a year earlier. The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 10 to 742 from 732 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended June 9, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 215,237 long positions, down 6,434 from June 2, while short positions were also down 5,382 to 92,030.
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