EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide Amid US-Iran Talks, Oman's Hormuz Proposal

European natural gas futures extended their decline on Tuesday amid reports of diplomatic engagements between the US and Iran, leading to a pause on military hostilities in the region.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract dropped 0.88% to 57.740 ($65.64) per megawatt-hour, while the front-month UK NBP contract declined 0.54% to 140.000 pence ($1.86) per therm.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, US President Donald Trump said there was "a chance" of reaching a deal with Tehran during the current pause in hostilities, adding that Iran had requested talks with Washington through intermediaries following nearly two weeks of escalating military exchanges between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Oman has shared a proposal to jointly manage the strategically crucial Strait with Iran, with a voluntary fee model to break the ongoing deadlock, as reported by.

Traffic along the crucial Strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, held steady at 11 transits on Monday, according to data from ShipFinder.

Despite the latest developments, Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG exporter, was still offering to sub-charter its LNG carriers through the end of October, suggesting the company was in no rush to resume LNG shipments through the Persian Gulf.

At the same time, Hynes noted that South Asian importers were actively purchasing LNG cargoes due to the reduction in Middle Eastern supplies, which is starting to weigh on Europe's gas refilling operations ahead of winter.

European gas inventories were still below historic levels, at 55.66% of capacity, compared to 66.83% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period of 71.5%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

As the month comes to an end, Europe is bracing for another unprecedented heatwave in August. Temperatures are expected to surge past the 40 degrees Celsius mark yet again, according to a report by Severe-Weather EU.

This is once again set to add to the region's space cooling demand and increase power generation that will weigh on efforts to refill inventories ahead of winter.

US Oil Update: Futures Retreat as Middle East, Black Sea Supply Risks Recede

Crude futures plunged in after-hours trading on Monday, pulling back from a multi-session high, as immediate supply threats across key Middle Eastern and Black Sea crude exporting markets began to ease.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated 8.3% to $81.88 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 9% to $87.75/bbl.EBW Analytics strategists said on Monday that the market could return to an oversupplied balance if hostilities continue to ease, though risks remain elevated given the potential for the conflict to broaden.The US has held off on new military strikes against Iranian targets since Friday, following 13 straight nights of attacks aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran, in response, reportedly signaled that it would stop carrying out attacks on its Gulf neighbors as long as the US also refrains from striking, as Tehran held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.On Monday, the US Central Command said that Washington's ongoing blockade against Iran has redirected 17 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two to enforce compliance.Earlier on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that while "it's possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments," no formal peace negotiations between Iran and the US are currently taking place.He said talks between Tehran and Muscat have no connection whatsoever with the US and are ongoing.However, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense on Monday intercepted drones from Iraq and Yemen's Houthis targeting its oil facilities.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although the pause in US military action has eased immediate supply fears, constrained maritime traffic across key export routes suggests geopolitical risk remains elevated.The defense ministry said in a social media post that the Gulf state's air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that targeted petroleum facilities in the country's Eastern Province and Riyadh region.On Monday, the Houthis also said they launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure in response to incursions by the Gulf state's drones.Yahya Saree, the Houthis' spokesperson, said that several targets in the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu were struck by several drones.Saudi Arabia has re-routed its crude output to Yanbu via its east-west pipeline to get around Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz.Meanwhile, traffic through the Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict, remains restricted, with the latest shipping data showing only 29 confirmed crossings between July 24 and 26.Bab el-Mandeb, by comparison, recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting.

Saudi Crude Transit Through Bab el-Mandeb Drops Sharply After Houthi Attacks, Kpler Says

Saudi crude exports continue to move through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite a sharp drop in transit volumes following Houthi attacks, Kpler said in a Monday note.Before the July 22 attacks, crude cargoes loaded at Saudi Arabia's west coast averaged about 3 million barrels per day through the strait, reflecting regular shipments from Yanbu to Asia.Kpler said the attacks marked an escalation in Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.Since July 22, only six Saudi-loaded crude tankers have crossed Bab el-Mandeb, with transit volumes averaging about 1.5 million b/d over the six days after the attacks.The transit volumes have dropped by almost 50%, although Saudi crude exports have not stopped, according to Kpler.Kpler said it has not confirmed any suspension of Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu or vessel crossings through the strait.The firm said the shipping corridor remains open even as traffic continues at a slower pace.

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide Amid US-Iran Talks, Oman's Hormuz Proposal

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US Oil Update: Futures Retreat as Middle East, Black Sea Supply Risks Recede
Crude futures plunged in after-hours trading on Monday, pulling back from a multi-session high, as immediate supply threats across key Middle Eastern and Black Sea crude exporting markets began to ease.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated 8.3% to $81.88 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 9% to $87.75/bbl.EBW Analytics strategists said on Monday that the market could return to an oversupplied balance if hostilities continue to ease, though risks remain elevated given the potential for the conflict to broaden.The US has held off on new military strikes against Iranian targets since Friday, following 13 straight nights of attacks aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran, in response, reportedly signaled that it would stop carrying out attacks on its Gulf neighbors as long as the US also refrains from striking, as Tehran held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.On Monday, the US Central Command said that Washington's ongoing blockade against Iran has redirected 17 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two to enforce compliance.Earlier on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that while "it's possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments," no formal peace negotiations between Iran and the US are currently taking place.He said talks between Tehran and Muscat have no connection whatsoever with the US and are ongoing.However, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense on Monday intercepted drones from Iraq and Yemen's Houthis targeting its oil facilities.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although the pause in US military action has eased immediate supply fears, constrained maritime traffic across key export routes suggests geopolitical risk remains elevated.The defense ministry said in a social media post that the Gulf state's air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that targeted petroleum facilities in the country's Eastern Province and Riyadh region.On Monday, the Houthis also said they launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure in response to incursions by the Gulf state's drones.Yahya Saree, the Houthis' spokesperson, said that several targets in the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu were struck by several drones.Saudi Arabia has re-routed its crude output to Yanbu via its east-west pipeline to get around Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz.Meanwhile, traffic through the Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict, remains restricted, with the latest shipping data showing only 29 confirmed crossings between July 24 and 26.Bab el-Mandeb, by comparison, recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting.

Oil & Energy17h ago
Attack Hits Khor Mor, Northern Iraq's Largest Khor Mor Gas Field, Iran State Media Says

Oil & Energy18h ago
Saudi Crude Transit Through Bab el-Mandeb Drops Sharply After Houthi Attacks, Kpler Says
Saudi crude exports continue to move through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite a sharp drop in transit volumes following Houthi attacks, Kpler said in a Monday note.Before the July 22 attacks, crude cargoes loaded at Saudi Arabia's west coast averaged about 3 million barrels per day through the strait, reflecting regular shipments from Yanbu to Asia.Kpler said the attacks marked an escalation in Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.Since July 22, only six Saudi-loaded crude tankers have crossed Bab el-Mandeb, with transit volumes averaging about 1.5 million b/d over the six days after the attacks.The transit volumes have dropped by almost 50%, although Saudi crude exports have not stopped, according to Kpler.Kpler said it has not confirmed any suspension of Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu or vessel crossings through the strait.The firm said the shipping corridor remains open even as traffic continues at a slower pace.