EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed as US-Iran Talk Optimism Eases Supply Fears

EMEA crude futures diverged in after-hours trading on Tuesday as a build in optimism over potential progress in US-Iran talks eased concerns about supply disruptions and raised expectations that more barrels could return to global markets.

Brent crude futures fell by 5.7% to $83.88 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were up by 1.1% to $85.35/bbl.

ING strategists said that the oil market continues to sell off heavily, with the US and Iran continuing to hold off on further strikes, while President Trump said that talks are happening and that there is a "good chance" of a deal.

The pause in fighting between the US and Iran appeared to hold Tuesday, raising hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict that has upended global energy markets.

On Monday, President Trump, who reportedly called off US military strikes against Iranian targets after a two-week campaign, told reporters that there were "good talks" underway with Iran but threatened to restart strikes unless negotiations deliver.

Market participants are reportedly positioned for potential progress toward US-Iran peace talks ahead of Trump's scheduled meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Wednesday.

However, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said on Monday that while "it's possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments," no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi hosted separate calls with his Saudi and Omani counterparts on Tuesday to review bilateral and regional issues and stress stronger cooperation and joint diplomacy to restore stability and address US actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that shipping activity through the Hormuz remained well below normal despite ongoing Oman-mediated discussions to restore maritime traffic, underscoring persistent logistical risks.

On the supply front, OPEC+ is projected to pause further increases to its oil production quotas after approving a final scheduled hike in September, as the producer group continues to assess the impact of the Iran conflict on global supply, according to multiple media reports.

The cartel is set to approve an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September when it meets virtually on Aug. 2.

Gelber & Associates said that expectations that OPEC+ will continue managing supply and steady summer refinery demand are helping keep the physical market relatively firm despite broader macro uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia's state-owned energy major Aramco shut down its 400,000 barrel-per-day Jizan oil refinery on Monday following an attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels over the weekend, according to media reports.

ING analysts said the threat from the Houthis extends beyond potential disruptions to Saudi Arabia's shipments, with the militant group also posing a risk to the Gulf state's oil infrastructure.

However, the analysts said the extent to which any attacks could affect crude supplies from Gulf producers remains uncertain.

US Oil Update: Futures Retreat as Middle East, Black Sea Supply Risks Recede

Crude futures plunged in after-hours trading on Monday, pulling back from a multi-session high, as immediate supply threats across key Middle Eastern and Black Sea crude exporting markets began to ease.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated 8.3% to $81.88 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 9% to $87.75/bbl.EBW Analytics strategists said on Monday that the market could return to an oversupplied balance if hostilities continue to ease, though risks remain elevated given the potential for the conflict to broaden.The US has held off on new military strikes against Iranian targets since Friday, following 13 straight nights of attacks aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran, in response, reportedly signaled that it would stop carrying out attacks on its Gulf neighbors as long as the US also refrains from striking, as Tehran held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.On Monday, the US Central Command said that Washington's ongoing blockade against Iran has redirected 17 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two to enforce compliance.Earlier on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that while "it's possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments," no formal peace negotiations between Iran and the US are currently taking place.He said talks between Tehran and Muscat have no connection whatsoever with the US and are ongoing.However, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense on Monday intercepted drones from Iraq and Yemen's Houthis targeting its oil facilities.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although the pause in US military action has eased immediate supply fears, constrained maritime traffic across key export routes suggests geopolitical risk remains elevated.The defense ministry said in a social media post that the Gulf state's air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that targeted petroleum facilities in the country's Eastern Province and Riyadh region.On Monday, the Houthis also said they launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure in response to incursions by the Gulf state's drones.Yahya Saree, the Houthis' spokesperson, said that several targets in the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu were struck by several drones.Saudi Arabia has re-routed its crude output to Yanbu via its east-west pipeline to get around Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz.Meanwhile, traffic through the Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict, remains restricted, with the latest shipping data showing only 29 confirmed crossings between July 24 and 26.Bab el-Mandeb, by comparison, recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting.

Saudi Crude Transit Through Bab el-Mandeb Drops Sharply After Houthi Attacks, Kpler Says

Saudi crude exports continue to move through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite a sharp drop in transit volumes following Houthi attacks, Kpler said in a Monday note.Before the July 22 attacks, crude cargoes loaded at Saudi Arabia's west coast averaged about 3 million barrels per day through the strait, reflecting regular shipments from Yanbu to Asia.Kpler said the attacks marked an escalation in Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.Since July 22, only six Saudi-loaded crude tankers have crossed Bab el-Mandeb, with transit volumes averaging about 1.5 million b/d over the six days after the attacks.The transit volumes have dropped by almost 50%, although Saudi crude exports have not stopped, according to Kpler.Kpler said it has not confirmed any suspension of Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu or vessel crossings through the strait.The firm said the shipping corridor remains open even as traffic continues at a slower pace.

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed as US-Iran Talk Optimism Eases Supply Fears

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US Oil Update: Futures Retreat as Middle East, Black Sea Supply Risks Recede
Crude futures plunged in after-hours trading on Monday, pulling back from a multi-session high, as immediate supply threats across key Middle Eastern and Black Sea crude exporting markets began to ease.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated 8.3% to $81.88 per barrel, while Brent futures plunged by 9% to $87.75/bbl.EBW Analytics strategists said on Monday that the market could return to an oversupplied balance if hostilities continue to ease, though risks remain elevated given the potential for the conflict to broaden.The US has held off on new military strikes against Iranian targets since Friday, following 13 straight nights of attacks aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran, in response, reportedly signaled that it would stop carrying out attacks on its Gulf neighbors as long as the US also refrains from striking, as Tehran held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.On Monday, the US Central Command said that Washington's ongoing blockade against Iran has redirected 17 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded two to enforce compliance.Earlier on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that while "it's possible that mediators share messages from the US side about current developments," no formal peace negotiations between Iran and the US are currently taking place.He said talks between Tehran and Muscat have no connection whatsoever with the US and are ongoing.However, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense on Monday intercepted drones from Iraq and Yemen's Houthis targeting its oil facilities.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that although the pause in US military action has eased immediate supply fears, constrained maritime traffic across key export routes suggests geopolitical risk remains elevated.The defense ministry said in a social media post that the Gulf state's air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that targeted petroleum facilities in the country's Eastern Province and Riyadh region.On Monday, the Houthis also said they launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure in response to incursions by the Gulf state's drones.Yahya Saree, the Houthis' spokesperson, said that several targets in the supply and transport of crude oil from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu were struck by several drones.Saudi Arabia has re-routed its crude output to Yanbu via its east-west pipeline to get around Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz.Meanwhile, traffic through the Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict, remains restricted, with the latest shipping data showing only 29 confirmed crossings between July 24 and 26.Bab el-Mandeb, by comparison, recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting.

Oil & Energy20h ago
Attack Hits Khor Mor, Northern Iraq's Largest Khor Mor Gas Field, Iran State Media Says

Oil & Energy21h ago
Saudi Crude Transit Through Bab el-Mandeb Drops Sharply After Houthi Attacks, Kpler Says
Saudi crude exports continue to move through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite a sharp drop in transit volumes following Houthi attacks, Kpler said in a Monday note.Before the July 22 attacks, crude cargoes loaded at Saudi Arabia's west coast averaged about 3 million barrels per day through the strait, reflecting regular shipments from Yanbu to Asia.Kpler said the attacks marked an escalation in Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.Since July 22, only six Saudi-loaded crude tankers have crossed Bab el-Mandeb, with transit volumes averaging about 1.5 million b/d over the six days after the attacks.The transit volumes have dropped by almost 50%, although Saudi crude exports have not stopped, according to Kpler.Kpler said it has not confirmed any suspension of Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu or vessel crossings through the strait.The firm said the shipping corridor remains open even as traffic continues at a slower pace.