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Brent Crude Seen at About $106/bbl in Q2 2026 Amid Global Inventory Declines, EIA Says

Global oil inventories are expected to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, keeping Brent prices at about $106 per barrel in May and June, the US Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday."As oil production in the Middle East rises, we expect crude oil prices to fall, dropping to an average of $89/bbl in 4Q26 and $79/bbl in 2027," the EIA said.Brent crude spot prices climbed to $138/bbl on April 7 and averaged $117/bbl on a monthly basis in April, after the Strait of Hormuz disruption restricted global oil flows, EIA said.Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to keep global oil markets tight after 10.5 mmb/d of Middle East crude output went offline in April, the US EIA said.EIA expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain largely closed until late May, with shipping activity recovering gradually from June, according to the STEO.Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain together curtailed 10.5 mmb/d of crude production in April as regional conflict intensified.EIA expects oil shipments through the strait to stay below pre-conflict levels for the rest of 2026, while some disrupted Middle East crude production may remain offline over that period.EIA said disrupted supply will trigger large oil inventory draws in May and June, limiting downward pressure on crude prices even as shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve.The report forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 2.6 mmb/d in 2026, sharply wider than the 300,000 b/d decline projected in last month's outlook.Meanwhile, the UAE exited OPEC effective May 1, 2026, prompting the EIA to exclude UAE production data from both historical figures and forward projections in the report.EIA now expects OPEC spare crude production capacity to average 2.5 mmb/d in 2027, below its prior estimate of 3.8 mmb/d because the UAE held excess output capacity.US propane inventories climbed to record levels in late 2025, and the EIA expects inventories to stay elevated through 2027 because production growth continues to exceed demand growth.The agency expects propane stockpiles to peak in October 2026 before winter heating demand lowers inventories from November through March, although levels should remain above the five-year average.Lower US propane prices from abundant supplies will likely support stronger exports to Asia as buyers seek alternatives to disrupted Persian Gulf shipments.

Oil & Energy88d ago

Maersk Warns Against Strait of Hormuz Transits as Volatility Persists

Maersk will continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz for the time being, even as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran holds, it said in a Tuesday update.The Danish shipping giant said any decision to move vessels via the Hormuz would be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of security conditions and guidance from relevant authorities and partners."Information is still scarce, and we are urgently seeking clarification," Maersk said, referring to a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, adding that information remains limited and maritime certainty is not assured.Maersk welcomed efforts to restore freedom of navigation, including an initiative from the US regarding vessels in the Strait, but said it would factor such measures into its security reviews only once the details are fully understood.The Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy transit routes, handles about 20% share of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Shipping firms have stepped up risk assessments in recent weeks amid heightened regional tensions.Maersk said the situation remains highly dynamic and its guidance is subject to change as developments unfold.

Oil & Energy88d ago

Iraqi Crude Tanker Retreats from Strait of Hormuz Amid US Blockade, Bloomberg Analysis Says

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping, with maritime traffic largely restricted to vessels linked to Iran as the Middle East conflict persists, Bloomberg analysis showed on Tuesday.An Iraqi supertanker, which made a rare attempt to transit the strategic waterway, halted its passage and turned back after encountering a US naval blockade line, the analysis revealed.The Iraqi crude-loaded tanker Agios Fanourios I, which reversed course on Monday after approaching US naval positions, halted its journey to Vietnam.The vessel's unexplained U-turn highlights mounting risks for third-party shipping as Washington and Tehran enforce competing restrictions across the strategic waterway.Meanwhile, a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier, Mihzem, appeared to have successfully transited the Hormuz on Tuesday and is currently bound for Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data. A similar LNG shipment successfully navigated the strategic waterway over the weekend.Commercial traffic through the Hormuz slowed to a trickle on Monday, with ship-tracking data showing transits were limited to a handful of Iranian vessels and a single bulk carrier.The decline in activity comes as the US Central Command said in a social media post on X that the US Navy has diverted 62 commercial vessels since the start of a blockade on Iranian ports.Outbound traffic for the day consisted of one Iranian liquefied petroleum gas carrier, two small fuel tankers, and a bulker. A regional cargo ship was also recorded following the same route.Similarly, inbound transits comprised two Iranian bulkers and an oil product tanker. Two smaller bitumen carriers also completed the route.Qatari authorities have instructed vessels operating near the country's primary LNG export facility to turn off their tracking systems, citing safety concerns. The LPG tanker Xin Ming Long reportedly ceased transmitting its location data on Monday while awaiting orders. Its current transit status remains unconfirmed.

Oil & Energy88d ago

TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, ConocoPhillips Sign Syria Offshore Exploration MoU

TotalEnergies (TTE), QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips signed an offshore exploration agreement with the Syrian Petroleum Company for Syria's Block 3 area in the Mediterranean Sea, TotalEnergies said Tuesday.The partners will review Syria's offshore Block 3 area under the memorandum of understanding, which also sets terms for future technical and commercial exploration discussions."We are pleased to enter into this new partnership with the Syrian Petroleum Company with which we had a long and fruitful relationship from 1988 to 2011," said Julien Pouget, senior vice president at TotalEnergies."We look forward to cooperating with QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips to assess Syrian offshore exploration opportunities in the Mediterranean Sea," Pouget added.Price: $91.77, Change: $+1.08, Percent Change: +1.19%

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Oil & Energy88d ago

Coal Viable Alternative for Quick Relief Amid Middle East Energy Supply Crisis, Wood Mackenzie Says

A shift towards coal for power generation is among the viable alternatives to help countries reduce dependence on oil and gas and mitigate the ongoing impact of the energy supply crisis, according to a Wood Mackenzie note on Monday.Amid indications of a prolonged Middle East conflict, countries are seeking to pare their oil and gas consumption, and technological options such as the wider adoption of electric vehicles would need time to have a "material impact," the analysis said."One option that can make a relatively rapid difference is shifting away from gas and towards coal for power generation," according to the note.While there is a strong incentive to normalize energy export flows from the Gulf due to the region's vast, low-cost oil and gas reserves, there are indications that governments and companies are preparing for long-term disruptions to Gulf energy supplies."There has been a surge in interest in how to reduce countries' reliance on imports from the Gulf, whether by finding alternative sources of hydrocarbons or by reducing total consumption of oil and gas," the analysis said.Several Asian and European countries, including Japan, South Korea, Italy and Germany, have considered or already enacted policy changes to ensure a delay in the retirements of coal-fired plants and to bolster coal generation.According to the note, Australia and Indonesia are likely to emerge as the principal beneficiaries of stronger thermal coal markets, with producers in South Africa, the US, Colombia, and potentially Russia also likely to benefit.The crisis will, however, not result in a coal renaissance and world markets and prices will likely return to pre-war levels by next year if a peace agreement to end the Iran war is reached soon, said Anthony Knutson, Wood Mackenzie's global head of thermal coal markets.The crisis has slowed coal's decline, and fueled demand through the 2020s, but has not reversed the long-term trend towards lower-carbon energy.Coal trade volumes are likely to remain near 1 billion metric tons per year through the rest of the 2020s, the analysis said.A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could force a fundamental rethink of energy security and ensure a higher upside for coal demand.According to the note, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries crude to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, has emerged as the most important alternative for hydrocarbon exports through the Hormuz Strait.Flow on the pipeline has risen to 7 million barrels per day, while oil exports from the Yanbu terminal averaged 4 million b/d in the first week of May, compared with about 735,000 b/d before the Iran war, Wood Mackenzie estimates showed.

Oil & Energy88d ago

Ming Yang Secures Ethiopia License for $10 Billion Renewable Deal

Offshore wind power firm Ming Yang secured an Ethiopian investment license after signing a $10 billion investment agreement at the fourth Invest in Ethiopia Forum, the Ethiopian Investment Commission said Monday.The company signed the largest agreement at the fourth edition of the Invest in Ethiopia Forum, where seven firms committed a combined $13.1 billion.Ming Yang will spend $7.47 billion in the first phase to build renewable energy projects with 8.4 gigawatts of capacity across Ethiopia's South Omo, Afar and Somali regions.The project will generate 5.4 GW from wind facilities and 2.8 GW from solar plants as Ethiopia expands large-scale clean energy production, according to the commission.Ming Yang raised its original $10 billion commitment by another $4.1 billion.The company will direct $7.3 billion toward green ammonia, electric transmission equipment and wind turbine manufacturing in the project's second phase.The commission said the projects will support industrial growth, create jobs, strengthen technology transfers and increase foreign exchange earnings as Ethiopia pushes economic reforms and attracts foreign investment.Five companies from the third edition of the Invest in Ethiopia Forum have started operations and begun exporting products to global markets, strengthening Ethiopia's position as a growing industrial and investment hub, the commission added.

Oil & Energy88d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Rally Continues as Peace Hopes Fade

Oil futures extended gains on Tuesday as the global oil market braced for prolonged supply disruptions following a diplomatic collapse between the US and Iran.The Brent futures contract gained over 3.6% to $107.96 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures gained about 3.7% to $101.70/bbl."Oil prices climbed for a second day as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analysts said.Speaking to reporters at the White House, the US president explicitly rejected Tehran's demands for an end to the US naval blockade and war reparations, stating that the current ceasefire is now on "massive life support."The rally was amplified by new US sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oil-shipping network, further dimming hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Treasury officials alleged that the IRGC used front companies across Oman, Hong Kong, and the UAE to bypass sanctions and fund regional operations.The market turned its attention to upcoming monthly reports from the Energy Information Administration and OPEC for clarity on the massive inventory draws caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict.These reports will be critical in assessing the long-term impact of the 10-week conflict on global reserves, which have already seen significant draws as refineries scramble to replace Middle Eastern barrels, analysts noted.

Oil & Energy88d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally After Iran's IRGC Expands Definition of Hormuz

European natural gas futures were up on Tuesday, after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz to encompass a much wider area.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 2.15% to 47.22 euros ($55.47) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract gained 2.79% to 116.59 British pence ($1.58) per therm.Mohammad Akbarzadeh, the deputy political director of the IRGC Navy said on Tuesday that the strategically critical Strait was no longer limited to the area around "islands such as Hormuz and Hengam," and would instead stretch from between the city of Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west, according to a Reuters report.This comes following Trump's decision to reject Iran's response to the US-backed ceasefire proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable" in a Truth Social post on Sunday.On Monday, while addressing reporters from the Oval Office, Trump said that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran was at its "weakest," adding that it was on "massive life support," suggesting greater potential for an escalation in hostilities.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows before the conflict, remained effectively closed for the 11th week running.While there was an uptick in traffic, with 17 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor, it is still far below pre-war daily traffic of about 138.These supply disruptions coincide with the European gas stockpiling season, with inventories significantly depleted, at just 35.4% of capacity, compared to the five-year average for this period at 47.8%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, the situation has been made worse by an unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, along with an unseasonably cool weather hitting large parts of Europe, which is increasing heating demand.

Oil & Energy88d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Gains as Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears Mount

Crude oil futures climbed on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, calling it "unacceptable" and declaring the regional ceasefire very fragile.The Brent futures contract gained over 3.3% to $107.62 per barrel. Murban futures gained about 1.9% to $105.54 per barrel."US President rejected Iran's demands for a total end to Washington's naval blockade and war reparations, calling the response unacceptable," Saxo Bank analysts said.Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump rejected Tehran's demands for an end to the US naval blockade and war reparations, stating that the current ceasefire is now on "massive life support."Adding to the supply-side pressure, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned a network of 12 individuals and entities accused of facilitating the illicit sale of Iranian oil to China.Treasury officials alleged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used front companies across Oman, Hong Kong, and the UAE to bypass sanctions and fund regional operations.Traders are now waiting for data from the EIA, which is set to release its outlook later in the day while OPEC and the IEA will publish updated indicators on Wednesday.These reports will be critical in assessing the long-term impact of the 10-week conflict on global reserves, which have already seen significant draws as refineries scramble to replace Middle Eastern barrels, analysts noted.

Oil & Energy88d ago

Market Chatter: Adnoc Drilling Prepared to Boost UAE Oil Capacity Beyond 5 Million b/d Target

Adnoc Drilling Chief Financial Officer Youssef Salem on Tuesday said the UAE-based oilfield services and drilling company is prepared to boost the country's oil production capacity to more than its targeted output of 5 million barrels per day by 2027 if needed, according to a Reuters report.Adnoc Drilling is ready to deliver any production capacity that parent company and state-owned energy major Abu Dhabi National Oil Company needs, Salem told Reuters in an interview.The UAE recently quit as a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, shrugging off its output restrictions.Last year, Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that the country could increase production capacity to 6 million b/d if required, the report said.According to Salem, the company has exceeded the country's capacity targets, reaching 142 deployed rigs by 2025 compared with an earlier target of 127 rigs by 2030.The company has multiple rig suppliers from China, technology partnerships, and operational teams in place to meet any level of demand from ADNOC, Salem said, adding that well deliveries rose in Q1 versus the year-ago period.Adnoc Drilling has not faced any impact from the disruption caused by the Iran conflict, with the company ensuring the availability of 98% of its rigs in Q1, Salem said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy88d ago

Adnoc Gas Habshan Complex Expected to be 100% Restored by 2027

Adnoc Gas said Tuesday its Habshan complex, a key gas facility in the UAE, is expected to reach 80% processing capacity by the end of the year and 100% by 2027, as the company makes headway with restoration work after Iranian attacks in April.The company restored 60% of the processing capacity "within a short period" following "two security-related incidents" on April 3 and 8, it said in its Q1 earnings report, with a detailed technical assessment nearing completion.Adnoc Gas said some processing trains at the Habshan site remain offline, but overall supply across the entire gas network has been "substantially" restored. Phase 1 of the Rich Gas Development project is also expected to help ease supply constraints.The company also said that "disruption to maritime movements through the Strait of Hormuz continues to impact liftings of Adnoc Gas products."In Q1, the company reported a 20% year-over-year decline in exports and traded liquids, which include liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, and liquefied natural gas. Sales volume dropped to 202 trillion British thermal units from 251 TBtu a year earlier, due to the effective closure of the Strait in March.Meanwhile, lower regional demand and cooler weather resulted in an 11% drop in domestic gas sales volume to 519 TBtu in Q1 from 580 TBtu a year ago.Adnoc Gas also recorded year-over-year declines in plant efficiency. Asset utilization decreased to 75.7% from 85.8%, while asset availability slipped to 93.4% from 97.8%. Asset reliability, at the same time, eased to 98.1% from 99.7%.Going forward, shipping disruptions would likely weigh on Q2 financial performance, according to the company."On the assumption that the Strait is open for the second half of 2026, higher LNG and LPG prices, in line with the current Brent forward curve, are expected to help offset deferred volumes," it said.Adnoc Gas projects that exports and traded liquids will range from 730 TBtu to 770 TBtu for the full year of 2026, compared with 1,036 TBtu in 2025. Domestic gas sales volumes are also estimated to slip to between 1,920 TBtu and 2,000 TBtu this year, from last year's 2,420 TBtu.

Oil & Energy88d ago

Market Chatter: Trump Proposes to Reduce or Suspend Federal Tax on Gasoline

US President Donald Trump has suggested he will either reduce or suspend the federal tax on gasoline to curb rising prices for the fuel amid the Iran war, according to comments to the press on Monday, a video of which was posted by The Hill on YouTube.When a reporter asked if he was going to suspend the tax, Trump answered "I'm going to reduce until the..." then switched to talking about his expectation that gasoline and oil prices will "drop like a rock" once the conflict ends.When asked for how long will he suspend the tax, he said, "Until it's appropriate. It's a, you know a small percentage, but it's still money."The incomplete phrasing suggests he intends to either reduce or suspend the tax, which would follow in the footsteps of many other countries that reduced or suspended the tax as a means of controlling price inflation in response to the energy shock.While his answer to the question was unclear, Trump talked at length about the fact that buyers are turning increasingly to the US for energy supplies.He said that the country is investing in logistics capacity to meet the new demand, which he expects to last beyond the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and he described the US as "a big filling station.""When it first came about 20% of the oil came out of Hormuz, that's a lot, but you know with time, they're going to Texas, they're going to Louisiana, they're going to Alaska ... Alaska, it seems like it's very far away from Asia but it's actually a relatively short trip by comparison to other locations they have to go to to get oil and they're going to Alaska," Trump said."Some of those people (buyers) are going to continue to go to Texas. They like it better. They said it's an extra 45 minutes.They like it better. It's sort of amazing. A lot of people thought oil would go to 250, 300 dollars. It's not.""Today it's less than 100 dollars. Think of that. When this ends you are going to see it drop like a rock."has reached out to the White House for a comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy88d ago

Saudi Aramco CEO Warns Strait Disruptions to Delay Oil Market Normalization Until 2027

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the ongoing disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could delay the market's return to normalcy until 2027.During the company's Q1 earnings call on Monday, Nasser said that even if these disruptions were to last a few more weeks, "it is going to take a much longer time for the oil market to rebalance and stabilize," dragging all the way into the following year, if the situation stays the same until mid-June.The market is currently losing as much as 100 million barrels of oil each week, as traffic through the strategically crucial strait has dropped to low single digits, Nasser said, according to the transcript of the call available on FactSet.A major reason normalization would take so long, he said, was the massive disruption to global tanker logistics, which he said was now "messed up" with "over 600 vessels" stranded inside the Hormuz and another "240 waiting outside."As a result, he said global energy and commodity supply chains would need "several months to return to their pre-conflict traffic," which he said was based on his optimistic view of things.

Oil & Energy88d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise After Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire was Weak

European natural gas futures were up on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on "massive life support."The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 2.15% to 47.22 euros ($55.47) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract gained 2.79% to 116.59 British pence ($1.58) per therm.This comes following Trump's decision to reject Iran's response to the US-backed ceasefire proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable" in a Truth Social post on Sunday.On Monday, while addressing reporters from the Oval Office, Trump said that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran was at its "weakest," adding that it was on "massive life support," hinting at a potential escalation in hostilities in the region.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the 11th week running. While it did see an uptick in traffic, with 17 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor, it is still significantly below the typical daily traffic of 138.These supply disruptions coincide with the European gas stockpiling season, with inventories significantly depleted, at just 35.4% of capacity, compared to the five-year average for this period at 47.8%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, the situation was made worse by an unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, along with an unseasonably cool weather hitting large parts of Europe, which is increasing heating demand.

Oil & Energy88d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Extends Gain as Trump Declares Ceasefire on "Life-Support"

Global oil prices climbed for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, as physical tightening of the market intensified following President Trump's dismissal of a potential Middle East peace deal.The Brent futures contract gained about 2% to $106.32 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $103.60 on May 11 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update."US President rejected Iran's demands for a total end to Washington's naval blockade and war reparations, calling the response unacceptable," Saxo Bank analysts said.Speaking to reporters at the White House, the US president explicitly rejected Tehran's demands for an end to the US naval blockade and war reparations, stating that the current ceasefire is now on "massive life support."Adding to the supply-side pressure, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned a network of 12 individuals and entities accused of facilitating the illicit sale of Iranian oil to China.Treasury officials alleged that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used front companies across Oman, Hong Kong, and the UAE to bypass sanctions and fund regional operations.Traders are now bracing for a wave of data from the three major energy forecasting agencies.The EIA is set to release its outlook later in the day, with OPEC and the IEA following on Wednesday.These reports will be critical in assessing the long-term impact of the 10-week conflict on global reserves, which have already seen significant draws as refineries scramble to replace Middle Eastern barrels, analysts noted.

Oil & Energy89d ago

US Treasury Sanctions 12 Over IRGC-Linked Iranian Oil Sales, Shipments to China

Oil & Energy89d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Higher as Trump Warns Iran Ceasefire 'On Life Support'

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday after President Trump dismissed Iran's latest peace proposal and declared a fragile month-long ceasefire to be on "life support," stoking fears of a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 2.75% to $98.25 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 3.37% to $104.70/bbl.Trump is reportedly meeting with his national security team to discuss next steps in the Middle East conflict, including possibly resuming military action after he rejected Iran's response to a US peace proposal."I would call it the weakest, right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I didn't even finish reading it," Trump told reporters at the White House. "I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support."US President rejected Iran's demands for a total end to Washington's naval blockade and war reparations, calling the response "stupid" and "unacceptable."The continued closure of the Hormuz since late February has severely disrupted global flows of crude, fuels, and gas, with the International Energy Agency calling it the biggest supply shock in history.Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the conflict was "not over," raising fears that tensions in the Middle East could escalate again and further threaten energy supplies."After briefly trading down to USD 96 last week on renewed hopes the strait would reopen, Brent has rebounded above USD 105," Saxo Bank strategists said, citing Morgan Stanley analysts who described the Middle East conflict as a "race against time."Iran has called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also demanded compensation for war damage and resumption of Iranian oil sales.ING strategists said the oil market remains heavily headline-driven, with prices surging after Trump rejected Iran's latest peace plan.Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran's proposal for ending the recent war was reasonable, as the US continues to insist on "unreasonable demands" shaped by the Israeli regime.On Monday, the country's Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Iran's armed forces are battle-ready to deliver a crushing, well-deserved response to any aggression.Tehran reportedly deployed small submarines to act as an "invisible guardian" of the Hormuz amid a series of rejected peace deals with the US.Kpler said that 53 vessels operated by the world's top 10 container shipping lines entered the Persian Gulf before the outbreak of conflict, of which 79% are unable to exit.

Oil & Energy89d ago

63% US Citizens Say Gas Price Spike Hurting Household Finances, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Says

About 63% of US citizens said rising gasoline prices hurt their household finances, up from 55% in a March poll, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday.Reuters/Ipsos collected responses online from 1,254 US adults nationwide between May 8 and May 11.Among Republicans, 51% said higher gasoline prices affected their finances, compared with 74% Democrats.Over two months after US and Israeli strikes began on Feb. 28, the Iran conflict continued to raise concerns over energy markets and rising fuel costs, the poll showed.After Iran disrupted nearly one-fifth of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict lifted US gasoline prices by roughly 50%, Reuters reported.Ahead of the November midterm elections, Republicans face mounting pressure as 65% of respondents held Republicans responsible for higher fuel prices, while 27% said it was because of the Democrats.About 80% of Americans expect gasoline prices to rise further, while nearly 28% said they may delay, shorten or cancel summer travel plans if prices stay elevated.Trump began his second term in January 2025, campaigning to lower costs for US consumers.A total of 66% respondents said Trump had not clearly explained US military involvement in Iran.

Oil & Energy89d ago

OPEC April Oil Output Falls to Lowest Level Since 2000 Amid Hormuz Disruption, Reuters Analysis Says

OPEC oil output fell to its lowest level in over two decades in April as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted Gulf exports and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Reuters analysis on Monday.The Reuters analysis cited data from LSEG, tanker-tracking firms including Kpler, sources at oil companies, OPEC, and industry consultants.Production from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped by 830,000 barrels per day over the month to 20.04 million b/d in April, the survey showed. This marked OPEC's lowest output since at least 2000, excluding later changes in membership.Reuters also revised March production down by 700,000 b/d following an update to its Saudi Arabia estimate.The decline came despite plans by eight OPEC+ producers, including Russia, to begin raising output in April under an agreement to gradually unwind supply cuts.Those hikes failed to materialize after the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28 severely disrupted tanker traffic through Hormuz, a critical export route for Gulf oil producers.Kuwait recorded the largest drop in production during April after enduring a full month of export disruptions, Reuters said. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also posted declines in output.The UAE was the only Gulf producer to increase production during the month, aided by export infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker-tracking data indicated higher UAE exports in April.Outside the Gulf, Venezuela and Libya also raised output, partially offsetting losses elsewhere in the group.

Oil & Energy89d ago

US Biofuels Update: Soybean Oil Futures React Negatively to US Rejection of Iran Peace Proposal

Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Monday, as the US rejected Iran's response to its proposal to end the war and prepared for a trade meeting with Chinese leaders.The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 0.41% higher on Monday at $12.13 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 0.78% lower at 73.74 cents per pound.On Thursday, the June ethanol futures contract on the Nymex exchange ended 0.26% lower at $1.93 per gallon.Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said the mixed trading sentiment was led by soybean oil."The soybean market also posted a second straight higher session but faded from the highest point of the morning as futures were torn between lower soybean oil influence and firm meal prices," Montgomery said in a daily note.Montgomery said the soybean futures traders have a lot of market-impacting information headed their way this week.The analyst added that the week is shaping up to be significant for the market, with the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report due on Tuesday and Trump set to visit China at the end of the week."In position news, last Friday's Commitments of Traders report showed that the combined noncommercial net-long in futures surpassed 1 million contracts, a level which has only occurred twice before, in late 2020/early 2021 and again in spring of 2022," Montgomery said.On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean inspections totaled 24.1 million bushels for the week ending May 7.Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.25 billion bushels, down 23% from the previous year. USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.54 bb in 2025-26, down 18% from the previous year.Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.For Tuesday's WASDE, traders are expecting a slightly higher production outlook for 2026 compared to 2025, but expect total reserves to remain steady amid an improved demand outlook, Montgomery said.Globally, the USDA is expected to raise its estimates of corn and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina for 2026 and 2027 on Tuesday.

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Oil & Energy88d ago