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US-Iran Deal Eases Shipping Risks, Hormuz Normalization Remains Fragile, Kpler Says

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The US-Iran peace deal that triggered a temporary easing of sanctions is expected to provide relief from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but the market remains far from a return to normal trade conditions, Kpler strategists said in a note on Tuesday.

The US's issuance of OFAC General License X, which authorizes certain transactions involving Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21, creates what Kpler described as a "real de-escalation signal" for shipping and cargo risk.

Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler, said crude prices have fallen to a three-month low amid expectations that Iranian supply and Hormuz traffic could begin to normalize.

However, Kpler said the immediate increase in vessel movements reflects the unwinding of a massive backlog rather than a surge in fresh supply.

The data analytics firm said that about 570 commercial vessels were delayed as of June 22. Subasics said that even at a clearance pace of about 15 vessels per day, it could take nearly 40 days to restore normal traffic, with port congestion and compliance checks likely to extend the process.

The US-Iran agreement is largely being seen as a de-risking signal rather than a return to pre-crisis trade.

Traffic via the Hormuz picked up between June 18 - 21, with 108 vessel crossings recorded over the four days, a sharp increase from the single-digit daily levels seen during the crisis. However, Kpler said that the movements mainly represented delayed voyages resuming.

Iran had maintained seaborne crude exports of about 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day before the US blockade in April, meaning the agreement does not create new exports from scratch.

Subasic said that, instead, the peace deal temporarily legitimizes some existing flows and improves confidence among cargo owners and ship operators.

General License X authorizes transactions "ordinarily incident and necessary" to covered oil trades and allows certain dealings involving blocked vessels. However, it does not remove sanctions on ships, operators, or counterparties, leaving many shadow-fleet vessels and trading entities exposed to secondary sanctions risks.

Kpler said that cargo screening would still need to be conducted at the entity level and that any collapse of the agreement could quickly return Iranian-related trade to an effectively off-limits status.

Kpler's base case scenario assumes the current framework remains temporary, while a broader lifting of sanctions would require progress in nuclear negotiations and eventual endorsement by the United Nations Security Council.

The data analytics said another source of uncertainty lies beyond the initial 60-day period. Though Iran is expected to provide free passage through the Strait of Hormuz during that window, Tehran has indicated it may later seek to impose charges for navigation and maritime services.

Kpler analysts said the fees could create new compliance risks, as payments to Iranian state entities would require sanctions screening and may complicate banking and insurance arrangements.

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