A 15% disruption in global oil supplies would inflict a far smaller hit on the US economy today than in past decades, reflecting the country's reduced dependence on oil and its emergence as a net exporter, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released Tuesday.
The 2026 Iran war renewed concerns about the economic fallout from supply disruptions, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an oil shortfall more than twice the peak disruption recorded during the 1973 oil crisis.
Because crude oil and refined products trade in global markets, major supply losses typically raise fuel costs and slow economic activity, making it reasonable to expect weaker growth following a disruption of that scale, the Dallas Fed said.
Researchers noted that the US has become structurally stronger since the 1970s and 1980s, aided by the shale revolution, which transformed the country from a major net oil importer into a net exporter in late 2019.
Using a model that compares the US economy with the rest of the world, the Dallas Fed estimated that a 15% global oil supply disruption would reduce annualized US real gross domestic product growth by 0.3 percentage points today, compared with 5.6 percentage points under 1980 conditions.
For context, the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 disrupted about 4% of global oil supplies and lowered annualized US growth by roughly 1.5 percentage points, according to the model.
The analysis identified lower oil consumption intensity and a stronger oil trade position as the main reasons the US economy now absorbs supply shocks more effectively than it did four decades ago.
Restoring the oil expenditure share to its 1980 level increases the growth impact from 0.3 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points, while reverting the oil trade balance raises the decline to 1.3 percentage points, research data show.
When researchers simultaneously reset both measures to their 1980 levels, annualized US growth fell by 5.1 percentage points, nearly matching the 5.6-percentage-point decline estimated under the full 1980 scenario.
Higher oil prices still reduce non-oil economic activity, but rising export revenue now offsets part of that damage because the US earns more income from oil sales abroad, the Dallas Fed said.
The study found that this offset barely existed in 1980 because the US imported far more oil than it exported, leaving overall economic growth more exposed to swings in energy prices.
A 15% disruption in global oil supplies would reduce annualized growth by 1.7 percentage points across the rest of the world, compared with 0.3 percentage points in the US, highlighting the greater vulnerability of large oil-importing economies, according to the research.