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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide After Trump Expresses Optimism Over Iran Peace Deal

European natural gas futures were down on Friday after US President Donald Trump expressed strong optimism over a peace deal with Iran.The front-month Dutch TTF contract dropped 1.23% to 41.90 euros ($49.37) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures dropped 1.03% to 105.20 British pence ($1.42) per therm.On Thursday, Trump said Iran was willing to hand over its "nuclear dust" to the US, which refers to the country's enriched uranium, which was buried underground following US airstrikes last year.Speaking with the press at the South Lawn of the White House, Trump said that Iran had agreed not to have nuclear weapons and that the two sides were "very close" to making a deal.Media reports say Iran has not commented on this commitment, leaving some room for doubt, with Iran having previously denied other commitments Trump said were agreed upon.Meanwhile, the US naval blockade against Iran remains in full effect, with US Centcom releasing footage showing a naval helicopter guiding a merchant vessel away.The Strait of Hormuz, which usually handles 20% of global LNG flows, was effectively closed for the seventh week running, with just eight vessels passing through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has warned that even if the Strait were to reopen soon, it would take at least two years for energy output in the Middle East to return to normal.In an interview with the Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper on Friday, Birol said that this will vary across different countries, "Iraq, for example, will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia," he said.This comes at a difficult juncture for European natural gas markets, with inventory levels at just 29.56% of total capacity, compared to 35.97% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Oil & Energy67d ago

Market Chatter: IEA Chief Warns of 2-Year Recovery for Middle East Energy Output

The global energy landscape faces a protracted recovery, with the head of the International Energy Agency warning on Friday that it will take roughly two years to restore Middle Eastern output lost to the ongoing regional conflict, Reuters reported.Supply gap is now hitting Asian markets after no new tankers were loaded in March, Reuters reported, citing IEA Chief Fatih Birol in an interview with the newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung.He warned that if the strategic waterway does not reopen shortly, the world must prepare for "significantly higher energy prices" as current inventories are depleted, as per the report.Addressing the possibility of further emergency measures, Birol confirmed that the agency remains on high alert following its massive strategic reserve release in March.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy67d ago

Market Chatter: US Oil Executives Call on Donald Trump to Halt Iran Hormuz Strait Toll Plans

US oil executives have called on President Donald Trump to rule out Iran's plans to collect tolls from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in any peace deal they agree upon, the Financial Times reported.Such a toll would set a dangerous precedent, potentially encouraging other countries, such as China, to implement a similar charge, the American Petroleum Institute, the largest US lobby for the industry, told the newspaper. They argued it would also strengthen Iran's government while hurting the oil industry.Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by threatening to attack any ships that attempt to cross, has choked off about 20% of the world's oil and liquified gas supplies, driving up prices for energy as well as pushing food prices higher.While Tehran is reported to have let some ships evade the blockade in exchange for fees heard at around $2 million, the FT report said it has also signaled its intention to impose a toll indefinitely even if the war ends.While Trump has demanded Iran reopen the strait as part of their fragile two-week ceasefire that ends on Tuesday, traffic remains minimal with shippers reluctant to make the crossing amid high tensions.The FT said US oil bosses were due to speak to Trump about the Strait's reopening on Thursday afternoon and to discuss the potential for increasing oil output."We can't let the Mullahs control with tolls the Strait of Hormuz. We can't let the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] control the Strait of Hormuz. We have to open that up," said Scott Sheffield, a senior voice in the US oil industry."It might require assembling a joint force with Europe, Asian and other Persian Gulf countries to open up the strait, Sheffield said. He said this crisis must be brought to an end to prevent global economic damage, even if that meant putting troops on the ground in Iran.Sheffield had lived in Iran prior to the 1979 revolution, FT reported.The article noted that Trump himself last week said the US could partake in a tolling of ships along with Iran, with "big money" to be made before later backpedalling and posting online that Iran "better not" be charging ships for passage.The article quoted a White House spokeswoman who said: "As the president stated, the Strait of Hormuz is international water, and we are not going to let Iran toll the strait."The head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said that Iran had no business unilaterally imposing a charge."The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran's to close or restrict," said Sultan al-Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil, in a social media post."Any attempt to do so is not a regional issue; it is the disruption of a global economic lifeline and a direct threat to the energy, food and health security of every nation. Setting such a precedent is illegal, dangerous and unacceptable."(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy67d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Futures Ease Amid Trump's Diplomatic Push

Brent crude futures slipped on Friday as US president Donald Trump signaled a potential peace deal with Iran easing prolonged supply disruption fears in the market.The Brent futures contract slipped 0.7% to $98.74 per barrel. Murban closed at $101.66 on April 16 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update."Oil prices remained elevated with speculation rising that higher oil prices will become the new normal even after the Iran war ends, as OPEC production plunged by the most in at least two decades in March on damage to Middle East infrastructure," Saxo Bank analysts said.Brent eased toward $98 a barrel after nearly a 5% jump on Thursday, while WTI hovered around $93," Saxo Bank analysts noted.Trump said on Thursday that Iran "wants to make a deal," signaling potential progress in negotiations between the two countries.Trump shared the remarks while speaking to reporters outside the White House, shortly after posting on Truth Social about the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.However, with OPEC production at a 20-year low and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, experts warned that global energy recovery could take up to two years.Despite the diplomatic optimism, the International Energy Agency reportedly warned that Europe faces a jet fuel collapse within six weeks if Middle East shipping blockades persist.While rumors of a deal circulate, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, leaving crude stranded at sea at levels higher than pre-war averages.

Oil & Energy67d ago

Trump Says Iran Wants Deal, Talks May Resume Over Weekend

US President Donald Trump said Thursday Iran "wants to make a deal," signaling potential progress in negotiations between the two countries.Trump shared the remarks while speaking to reporters outside the White House, shortly after posting on Truth Social about the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.He said talks between Lebanon and Israel could mark a breakthrough, noting they may meet "for the first time in 44 years... and they're probably going to do it at the White House over the next week or two."Trump said further talks between the US and Iran could happen soon, noting negotiations may take place "probably maybe over the weekend" as discussions continue. "...I think we're very close to making a deal with Iran... I think we have a chance," the President said.He added that Iran's stance has shifted. "Iran wants to make a deal, and we're dealing very nicely with them... And they're willing to do things today that they weren't willing to do two months ago," he said.He added that negotiations were very successful, "I think we have a very successful negotiation going on right now, and I think if it happens, it'll be announced fairly soon, and it will give us free oil and free Hormuz Strait. Everything will be nice and I think your oil price will go down lower than it was before."Answering a question on the 20-year limit for uranium enrichment, Trump said no limits have been finalized, stating "we haven't agreed to any point... there's no 20 year limit," while emphasizing nuclear restrictions remain central.Trump said Iran has made commitments, adding "Iran's agreed to that, and they've agreed to it very powerfully," referring to nuclear-related assurances.He credited US military pressure and naval actions, saying "it's a combination of about four weeks of bombing and a very powerful blockade," which he said strengthened leverage.Trump described the current US maritime blockade's effectiveness, saying, "the blockade is maybe more powerful than the bombing."On Hormuz, he said conditions are tightly controlled, with strict enforcement as no ships are entering or going past the Strait. "They're not doing any business. They're unable to do any business because of the blockade," Trump said.Trump said US gasoline prices have eased in recent days, adding "Well, they're not very high, if you look at what they were supposed to be in order to get rid of a nuclear weapon... gas prices have come down very much over the last three, four days."On high oil prices, Trump said prices were likely to ease with a deal announced soon. "If you look at the oil and you look at the price we're paying, it's about half what people thought it would be if you did what I had to do."Arab nations are expected to help cover war costs, Trump said, adding "I think they're going to make a contribution."

Oil & Energy67d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Rise as US-Iran Talks Uncertainty, Hormuz Blockade Fuel Supply Fears

Crude oil futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding the second round of US-Iran peace talks and a prolonged disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns over global supply.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.08% to $93.19 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 3.57% to $98.32/bbl.On Thursday, President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone about prospects for the US and Iran to sign a permanent ceasefire deal, as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week.Trump said without providing evidence that Tehran has agreed to give up the enriched uranium."It's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal," Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.However, Iranian officials are reportedly skeptical about the US' commitment to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend.Tehran believes that, due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks and its continued conduct to date, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend.Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the situation is fast-moving, while maintaining SEB's base case that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts said that as buyers shift toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers.However, the analysts said that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the conflict, which has disrupted about 13 million barrels per day.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.

Oil & Energy67d ago

US Diesel Rail Shipments Surge as Iran Conflict Spurs Arbitrage, Bloomberg Analysis Says

US demand for rail-delivered shipping diesel surged in March as the conflict in Iran disrupted global fuel flows, prompting traders to seek alternative routes and storage options, a Bloomberg analysis showed on Thursday.Requests for distillate storage in tanks connected to rail networks jumped sharply to 250,000 barrels in March, up from 30,000 in February and none in January, Bloomberg said, citing data from storage clearinghouse The Tank Tiger. All the demand came from the East and Gulf Coasts, key export hubs. Early April figures indicate the trend is continuing, with an additional 125,000 barrels in storage requests already recorded.The spike in rail-linked storage demand points to a growing effort by traders and refiners to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. With Midwest diesel prices trading at a steep discount to coastal markets, firms are increasingly moving fuel to export hubs where tighter supplies have lifted prices.The shift comes as conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, constrains global supplies of crude and refined products. In response, international demand for US diesel has strengthened, with exports expected to approach record levels, Bloomberg said, citing information from energy analytics firm Vortexa.While pipelines remain the primary method for transporting fuel domestically, capacity and routing limitations mean they cannot always deliver Midwest product directly to coastal export terminals. Rail and barge shipments, though typically more expensive, are becoming economically viable under current market conditions.Rail deliveries of petroleum products totaled 9,112 carloads in March, nearly 10% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the shift in logistics.Declining inventories along the Gulf Coast and stronger overseas demand have tightened regional markets, occasionally pushing physical diesel prices above futures benchmarks, an uncommon development for a region usually characterized by ample supply.Bloomberg said industry analysts predict the longer disruptions persist in the Middle East, the more likely it is that these atypical trade patterns, particularly the use of rail to move fuel to coastal export hubs, will continue.

Oil & Energy67d ago

Asia to Remain Key Growth Driver Despite Energy Shock, IMF Says

Asia is expected to remain the main engine of global growth despite rising risks from an energy supply shock tied to conflict in the Middle East, International Monetary Fund economists said Thursday.IMF officials Andrea Pescatori and Krishna Srinivasan said the region entered 2026 on a strong footing, with resilient growth last year despite US tariffs and persistent trade uncertainty. IMF recently released its Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.However, escalating conflict has driven up energy prices, lifting inflation, weakening external balances and limiting policy flexibility.The IMF forecasts Asia's growth will slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, assuming the shock is temporary. China and India are expected to generate about 70% of the region's expansion.Inflation is projected to rise to 2.6% this year from 1.4% in 2025. A prolonged or intensified shock could cut cumulative growth through 2027 by 1 to 2 percentage points.Asia is particularly exposed due to its reliance on imported energy, with net oil and gas imports equal to roughly 2.5% of output. The region consumes about 38% of global oil and 24% of natural gas and depends heavily on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply disruptions could trigger shortages and spill over into supply chains, including fertilizers and petrochemicals.The shock is expected to hit economies through multiple channels, including weaker trade balances, reduced household purchasing power, higher production costs and tighter financial conditions driven by rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar.Growth is projected to moderate across most economies, though South Korea is likely to benefit from a strong technology cycle. Emerging Asia is expected to expand by 4.9% this year, while advanced economies also slow. Inflation trends vary, easing in Japan but remaining elevated in Australia and rising in China and India.Risks remain skewed to the downside. In an adverse scenario, regional growth in 2026 could be nearly one percentage point lower than the baseline, while a more severe shock could result in cumulative output losses of about two percentage points by 2027.The IMF said governments should focus on targeted, temporary support for vulnerable households while avoiding broad subsidies that distort prices and strain public finances. Central banks should remain flexible as prolonged shocks could fuel currency weakness and persistent inflation.Asia can best cope by protecting vulnerable people, letting prices adjust, anchoring inflation expectations, and accelerating structural reforms, they said.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Market Chatter: US-Iran Deal May Take Six Months as Gulf Leaders Warn of Energy Risks

Gulf and European leaders see a US-Iran peace deal taking about six months, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing officials from the regions familiar with the matter.Leaders are pushing for an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to restore disrupted energy flows and stabilize global supply chains amid ongoing regional tensions, the report said.They also warned that failure to reopen the waterway within weeks could trigger a broader food supply crisis.Officials said energy prices are likely to climb further if the conflict drags on, according to the report.Gulf countries continue to believe Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons capability, a concern unchanged despite recent US and Israeli military strikes, the report added, citing the sources.They argue any agreement should prohibit uranium enrichment and restrict Iran's long-range missile capabilities as part of a broader security framework.At the same time, Gulf leaders broadly oppose renewed military escalation and favor continued diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran to resolve the crisis, according to the report.The conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes in late February, has triggered retaliatory attacks by Iran across the region, targeting key energy infrastructure, the report said.Oil prices have eased since the early April ceasefire but remain over 35% higher since the conflict began, with Brent trading above $99 per barrel on Thursday.The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely shut, severely limiting exports of oil, liquefied natural gas, aluminum, and fertilizers from Gulf economies.The US and Iran are considering extending the truce by two weeks, though key sticking points remain, including sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and broader regional conflicts, according to the report.has reached out to the foreign ministries of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy68d ago

DeepOcean, Woodside Complete Dual-Scope Subsea Campaign Offshore Senegal

DeepOcean and Woodside Energy said on Thursday have carried out a simultaneous subsea inspection and 3D scanning campaign at the Sangomar offshore oil development in Senegal, in what the companies described as an efficiency milestone in subsea operations.DeepOcean said the operation covered 69 subsea structures, including 17 subsea trees, and combined routine inspection work with high-resolution 3D photogrammetry scanning in a single remotely supported ROV campaign.The approach eliminated the need for separate vessel deployments for inspection and survey tasks and did not require additional offshore personnel.The companies said the "dual-scope" methodology enabled both inspection routines and 3D scanning to be performed concurrently, cutting offshore time to just over half of what would typically be required for two separate operations, while also increasing data output.Meanwhile, Woodside said the system combines ROVs equipped with scanning tools, inspection engineers, proprietary subsea imaging software and digital twin capabilities, using photogrammetry to generate 3D reconstructions from subsea imagery and sonar data.DeepOcean operates across several West African countries, including Congo-Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Ghana, where it supports subsea inspection and IMR services for offshore energy developments.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Shipowners, Charterers Clash Over Hormuz Risk as Rates Surge, Bloomberg Analysis Says

A dispute over Hormuz transit risk has pushed tanker rates to about $475,000 per day, sharply curbing vessel bookings and disrupting Persian Gulf oil shipments, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Thursday.Shipowners and charterers remain split over who bears Hormuz transit risk, sharply limiting new tanker bookings despite steady demand for cargo shipments, the analysis said.The situation highlights how, seven weeks into the Middle East conflict, the critical energy corridor remains highly unsafe, discouraging routine shipping activity and raising uncertainty for global oil trade flows.The analysis said that at least two oil producers holding cargoes in the Persian Gulf have recently sought vessels while requiring owners to ensure smooth loading, secure passage, and timely delivery, according to people familiar with the discussions.Industry participants, including shipowners and brokers, said those requirements are impractical given current conditions, the analysis added.Some shipowners are demanding strict contractual protections that charterers find excessive and therefore preventing most agreements for lifting crude from the region, according to the analysis.Although the route is shut by both the US and Iran, only a limited number of vessels are transiting by hugging coastlines or turning off tracking systems.The Baltic Exchange has directed brokers to include a risk premium in freight calculations, with daily tanker earnings rising to about $475,000 from roughly $160,000 before the conflict, underscoring sharply higher costs.

Oil & Energy68d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Gain on US-Iran Peace Talks Uncertainty, Hormuz Blockade

Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Thursday as the market weighed the prospect of US-Iran peace talks to end the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that continues to disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3.68% to $94.72 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced 4.86% to $99.51/bbl.ING strategists said the physical market is tightening by the day as oil flows via the Hormuz remain halted.US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Total motor gasoline stockpiles decreased by 6.3 mmbbls from last week to 232.9 mmbbls, and distillate stocks dropped by 3.1 mmbbls to 111.6 mmbbls, the agency said."With buyers shifting toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers," ING analysts said, adding that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the Middle East conflict.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire from 5 p.m. ET on Thursday. Iran has been pressing to include a ceasefire in Lebanon in its negotiations with the US, as part of a broader push for a regional truce.However, Iranian officials are skeptical about the US' "good faith and commitment" to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.Tehran reportedly believes that due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to media reports.The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, the situation is fast-moving, but "we maintain our base case" that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships.Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Saipem Secures $400 Million Saudi Offshore Contracts With Aramco

Saipem said Thursday it secured offshore contracts worth about $400 million in Saudi Arabia, expanding work at the Safaniya oil field under its long-term deal with Aramco.The awards, issued as Contract Release Purchase Orders, fall under an existing agreement with Saudi Aramco and cover engineering, procurement, construction and installation activities.One contract includes building a water injection tie-in platform, two wellheads, about 5 kilometers of pipelines and roughly 15 km of subsea power cables, Saipem added.The second contract covers the installation of four additional water injection wellheads along with related subsea infrastructure at the Safaniya field, Saipem said.Saipem will deploy construction vessels already operating in the region to execute offshore work, supporting efficient project delivery timelines.Fabrication will be carried out at its Saudi yard through Saipem Taqa Al-Rushaid Fabricators, reinforcing local industry development and strengthening its partnership with Aramco, according to Saipem.The awards strengthen Saipem's position in Saudi Arabia and deepen its long-standing partnership with Aramco, the company said.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Refiners Surge 53% as Iran Conflict Boosts Margins, TPH Energy Says

Refining stocks surged 53% in Q1 2026 as fuel margins spiked, though earnings lagged expectations with average earnings per share seen at $0.19, TPH Energy Research said Thursday.The quarter was marked by sharp volatility as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply, pushing refining margins higher despite operational and cost-related headwinds, the report said.Global refining activity dropped to about 80 million barrels per day in March from 86 million b/d in January, reflecting Middle East disruptions and feedstock shortages in Asia, TPH added.Fuel margins surged in response, with US gasoline and diesel cracks jumping to $13 per barrel and $46/bbl in March from $6/bbl and $22/bbl earlier in the quarter, the report added.However, average gasoline margins remained weak at $9/bbl for Q1, pressured by strong US refinery utilization of about 91.5%, which kept supply elevated, according to TPH.Diesel margins performed better, averaging $30/bbl, supported by stronger demand running about 1% above five-year average levels and supply disruptions linked to Iran.The Singapore market saw sharper gains, with gasoline and diesel cracks rising to $16/bbl and $41/bbl, up about $3/bbl and $18/bbl over the quarter, according to TPH.Additional tailwinds included wider heavy crude differentials, tighter West Coast supply following refinery closures, and regulatory benefits for smaller refiners.Despite strong margins, earnings disappointed due to weak capture rates of about 66%, as higher crude prices and derivative losses weighed on profitability, TPH added.Other pressures included lower returns on residual products such as asphalt and increased compliance costs tied to renewable fuel obligations, the report added.These headwinds offset benefits from improved crude sourcing and stronger jet fuel spreads, leaving analysts below consensus for several major refiners.Looking ahead, Q2 profitability is expected to improve significantly, supported by stronger margins with gasoline and diesel indicators near $9 and $47 per barrel, it said.TPH forecasts average Q2 earnings per share at $4.66, above consensus of $3.93, with stronger performance expected across all covered refiners, it said.TPH said it is particularly bullish on Phillips 66, Valero (VLO) and Par Pacific (PARR), citing improving fundamentals despite continued caution around margin capture and cost pressures.Price: $241.76, Change: $+6.76, Percent Change: +2.88%

$PARR$VLO

Oil & Energy68d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Gains as US-Iran Talks Signals Offset Hormuz Closure

EMEA crude futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as the market weighed signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has roiled global energy markets.Brent crude futures climbed by 2.46% to $93.52 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.63% to $101.48/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said oil has steadied amid signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key Arabian Gulf commodities.US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.However, the two sides are reportedly pivoting toward a temporary memorandum to avert renewed hostilities, scaling back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal after talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough.Though US and Iranian mediators have signaled optimism regarding a de-escalation framework and resumption of talks, deep-seated friction over Iran's nuclear program continues to stall a final resolution."The oil market continues to edge lower amid hopes that the US and Iran extend their ceasefire by another 2 weeks, along with a potential resumption in talks to bring an end to the war," ING strategists said in a note on Thursday.The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts said the physical market is tightening by the day as each passing day without a restart of oil flows via the Strait.The analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington will not renew sanctions waivers for some Iranian and Russian oil. On Wednesday, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on a number of individuals, firms and vessels linked to Hossein Shamkhani.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Trump Says Israel, Lebanon Agree to 10-Day Ceasefire

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting 5 p.m. ET, following talks with both leaders.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had held "excellent conversations" with Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding both sides agreed to a ceasefire.Trump said, "These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve peace between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day ceasefire."He added that the two nations met for the first time in 34 years, and the talks were held in Washington.Trump said he directed Vice President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, "to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a lasting peace."In a follow-up post, Trump said, "I will be inviting the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, and the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, to the White House for the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983."Trump added, "Both sides want to see peace, and I believe that will happen, quickly!"Separately, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, said a Lebanon ceasefire is as critical as one involving Iran, stressing Tehran's continued push for broader regional truce efforts, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.Israeli attacks have displaced over 1.2 million people, while Iran reiterated support for Lebanon and resistance groups amid ongoing hostilities, Tasnim reported, citing Lebanon's parliament speaker.Meanwhile, Iran reportedly expressed skepticism about renewed US talks, casting doubts on Washington's commitments, and alleged that recent Pakistan-mediated negotiations failed to produce results due to distrust.A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 enabled talks in Islamabad, where Iran proposed a ten-point plan, but after 21 hours of negotiations, no deal was reached, Tasnim News added.

Oil & Energy68d ago

LNG Market Hit by Supply Shock as Europe Faces Tighter Outlook, OIES Says

Global LNG supply fell about 20% in Q1 2026 after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, triggering price shocks across Europe and Asia, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies strategists said Wednesday.The disruption largely impacted Asia, as most Persian Gulf exports from Qatar and the UAE are directed there, though price effects were also felt strongly in Europe, OIES said.Supply flows did not halt immediately, as cargoes shipped before the closure continued arriving through March and early April, delaying the full physical impact on importers.OIES expects a sharper supply squeeze in April, when the absence of fresh shipments from the Persian Gulf becomes more visible across the global market.The disruption followed the European Union's move to ban Russian liquefied natural gas from Jan. 1, 2027, and pipeline gas by Nov. 1, 2027, tightening future supply expectations, OIES said.Even with additional output from North America, the loss of Gulf supply would prevent the market from becoming oversupplied, keeping conditions tighter than previously expected.Despite higher prices, gas demand in Europe has not declined materially and is likely to remain stable through 2026 due to limited short-term flexibility, except in some commercial use, according to OIES.Lower gas consumption in the power sector this summer may ease pressure, helping Europe secure an additional 6 billion cubic meters needed to refill storage amid what is expected to be a tighter LNG market, OIES added.Even if the disruption is short-lived, the price shock and renewed supply concerns are expected to boost interest in alternative energy sources, including low-carbon gases and electrification, particularly in Europe over the medium to longer term, OIES said.

Oil & Energy68d ago

Iran Reportedly Halts Petrochemical Exports Following Israeli Attacks

Iran has suspended exports of all petrochemical products to prioritize domestic needs and curb price volatility, following Israeli attacks on its petrochemical facilities, according to multiple media outlets.The Supreme National Security Council has reportedly issued a directive to ban exports until further notice to prevent a shortage of raw materials used by the downstream industry.The export suspension was first reported by Iranian news agencies, citing a letter from a senior National Petrochemical Company official to the chief executives of petrochemical complexes.Israeli strikes on Apr. 4 and 6 have damaged pipelines and power supply at key petrochemical production hubs in Asaluyeh and Mahshahr, ICIS reported.Despite supply disruptions and rising global prices, the government has kept domestic petrochemical prices at pre-war levels to support consumers, Reuters reported.The instruction to cease petrochemical exports followed the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Apr. 13. The blockade aims to curtail Iran's exports.National Petrochemical Company did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Iran is a major producer of chemicals such as methanol, ammonia, urea, plastics and polymers, and reportedly exports about 29 million metric tons of petrochemical products annually.

Oil & Energy68d ago

EU Approves $4.9 Billion Aid to Shield Industry From Power Costs

The European Union has approved state aid schemes for Bulgaria, Germany and Slovenia to provide temporary electricity price relief for energy-intensive industries, the European Commission said on Thursday.The measures, cleared under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, will offer financial support totaling 334 million euros ($393 million) in Bulgaria, 3.8 billion euros in Germany and 90 million euros in Slovenia.The Commission said the measures are designed to compensate companies in energy-intensive sectors for part of their electricity costs over the next three years, supporting their continued competitiveness while facing higher energy prices.The support will be limited to industries considered at risk of relocating production outside the EU to regions with weaker environmental standards.The EU executive board said that to qualify, companies must reinvest at least 50% of the aid received into decarbonization measures, such as upgrading assets to reduce electricity system costs without increasing fossil fuel use.The schemes meet CISAF requirements, including a minimum electricity price threshold of 50 euros per megawatt-hour and a maximum support duration of three years.Under the scheme, Bulgaria's scheme will run from July 2025 to June 2028, with aid delivered through electricity suppliers via discounts on monthly bills.Germany's program, running from January 2026 to December 2028, will allow companies to claim payments annually based on verified consumption and wholesale power prices. Slovenia's scheme, covering the same period, will disburse aid twice a year based on projected consumption.The Commission said the measures were "necessary, appropriate and proportionate" to support industrial activity while advancing climate goals, in line with EU state aid rules.The CISAF, adopted in June 2025, allows member states to support key sectors in the green transition, including renewable energy deployment, industrial decarbonization, and clean technology manufacturing.It also enables temporary relief on electricity prices to prevent companies from shifting operations abroad before Europe's energy transition delivers structurally lower power costs.Earlier this week, the Commission launched a consultation on a new Temporary Crisis Framework to address elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Oil & Energy68d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher Despite Reports of US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, despite reports of the US and Iran considering an extension to the current ceasefire by two more weeks, to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 1.85% to 42.16 euros ($49.67) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures rose 2.06% to 105.81 British pence ($1.43) per therm.The ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, could be extended as negotiators on both sides plan to hold technical talks, which will cover the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear enrichment, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a person familiar with the matter.Meanwhile, the US Central Command has released audio recordings of US Naval vessels enforcing the blockade against Iran, with commercial ships being threatened with "interdiction and seizure" for transiting to and from Iranian ports.Timothy Lawn, a retired US Army Sergeant Major, said on Wednesday that the US decision to blockade Iran, thus preventing the country from supplying energy to China, which accounted for 90% of its crude oil shipments in 2024 and 2025, has led Tehran to "return in a more conciliatory mood to the negotiating table."Lawn flagged Iran's reliance on Chinese inputs for its weapons and missile programs, a vulnerability now exposed by the blockade.During a news briefing on Thursday, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned Iran that US forces in the Middle East were ready to restart combat operations against Iran on a moment's notice, if the country fails to agree on a peace deal."If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy," he warned.Transit through the Strait has edged higher, with 19 vessels passing through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.As such, Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that traders remained mindful of the fact that "supplies remain severely constrained" with the Strait still being effectively closed, despite growing optimism regarding a potential peace deal.He attributed the recent pullback in energy prices to the unwinding of "large net long positions recently accumulated by investment funds."European gas inventories continued to see net injections, with storage still lower at 29.55% of capacity, compared to 35.97% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

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Oil & Energy68d ago