The Strait of Hormuz conflict has entered a third phase as the focus shifts from military action to governance that could reshape global trade, Kpler said in a Monday note.
The conflict began in June 2025 and intensified with a renewed campaign in February 2026, before Iran closed the Strait after fighting initially focused on its nuclear program and regime change, Kpler said.
A Memorandum of Understanding aimed to restore commercial navigation, but differing US and Iranian interpretations of the agreement instead reignited military confrontation, the note added.
Iran wants to retain authority over commercial transit, while the US has proposed security fees on cargo, leaving both sides focused on establishing a new governance framework rather than restoring the previous navigation model, Kpler said.
Kpler said the debate has shifted from reopening the Strait to deciding who should govern one of the world's most critical maritime trade corridors.
The Strait carries 20 million barrels per day, or 20%, of global oil supply from worldwide production of 103 million barrels per day, underscoring its role in energy markets, according to the note.
The Strait also carries 110 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas, equal to 20% of global exports, and 115 mmt of liquefied petroleum gas, representing 30% of global shipments.
Beyond energy, Hormuz also handles about 20% of global helium supply, 16% of alumina shipments, 15% of petrochemical trade and 14% of fertilizer volumes, highlighting its importance across multiple industrial supply chains, Kpler added.
Many of these supply chains depend on fixed export infrastructure, concentrated production and specialized industrial facilities, leaving little scope to reroute cargoes away from Hormuz, Kpler said.
Military operations may reopen the waterway, but markets need predictable rules, transparent governance and credible institutions to restore commercial confidence, Kpler said.
Kpler said a Hormuz transit toll would establish an independent, multinational and transparent authority to standardize commercial procedures, fund maritime security and provide greater legitimacy than a system controlled by a single coastal state or military power.
No existing international organization governs commercial access to strategic waterways, although any future authority would need to coordinate security, oversee transit procedures, collect fees and resolve commercial disputes, Kpler said.
The world's largest trading economies are likely to drive efforts for a new Hormuz governance framework because they rely most on uninterrupted maritime trade.
Kpler added the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to remain an isolated case, as the Strait of Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Gibraltar face similar challenges over security, commercial access and operational certainty.
Kpler said a single independent international authority could govern major maritime chokepoints under common operating procedures, transit corridors and security frameworks, replacing military deterrence with common governance.