Oil & Energy
Crude Posts Weekly Loss Despite Middle East Tensions, July Gains Top 20%
Global oil benchmarks ended the week lower as markets trimmed geopolitical risk premiums despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, while market attention also turned to the OPEC meeting this weekend.West Texas Intermediate settled at $86.80 per barrel, down from $90.47/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $90.09/bbl, down from $98.70/bbl a week earlier.WTI futures posted a weekly decline of 5.2%, while Brent futures fell nearly 7%. On a monthly basis, however, both WTI and Brent soared over 20%, capping a volatile July marked by supply disruptions."October Brent dropped toward $85.0 early Friday after Thursday's high above $89 per barrel and September WTI traded near $81.60, still on pace for a large monthly advance as the US-Iran conflict continues to strain shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank analysts said.The ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime flare-ups kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under severe pressure, punctuated by naval interventions, targeted tanker incidents, and Houthi embargo threats against Saudi energy infrastructure.These chokepoint disruptions forced energy markets to continually reprice systemic supply risks, outweighing temporary diplomatic pauses and early-month recovery signals from Persian Gulf flows, analysts noted.The supply squeeze also spread across refined products and export terminals.Global middle distillate margins climbed to fresh multi-month highs as regional conflicts tightened diesel availability ahead of winter, compounded by Russian export bans following refinery disruptions and temporary loading suspensions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal."The ICE gasoil crack remains near record highs, trading above $70/bbl," ING analysts said.On the supply front, US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 mmbbls in the week ended July 24, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories were about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said. The decrease was larger than Macquarie's estimate of a 2.5-million-barrel draw for the week ended July 24.US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories dropped to 307.7 mmbbls in the week ended July 24, down from 311.4 mmbbls a week earlier, marking a weekly decline of 3.8 mmbbls, EIA data showed.The weekly US oil rig count increased by one, to 451 in the week ended July 31 from 450 a week earlier, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compared with 410 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.Meanwhile, money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets increased their net long positions in the week ended July 28, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released Friday.The data showed money managers held 195,035 long positions, up 5,550 from July 21, while short positions fell by 15,852 to 86,728.Meanwhile, the UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said Friday that it plans to implement changes to the pricing mechanism for its flagship crude grades, in a move that could reshape Middle Eastern crude benchmarks over the longer term.Effective Nov. 1, Adnoc will price its Murban, Das, Umm Lulu and Upper Zakum crude grades using the prompt-month Platts Dubai benchmark and an Adnoc-announced differential, replacing the current methodology based on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi Murban futures.Although late-month developments, including ongoing backchannel peace negotiations, preliminary Persian Gulf supply recoveries, and prospective diplomatic talks, helped trigger short-term price consolidation and weekly pullbacks, cumulative geopolitical risks left both crude benchmarks with strong double-digit percentage gains for the month.In a Cabinet meeting on Friday, US President Donald Trump said American military forces would soon launch attacks on Iran."We'll be hitting them very hard...," Trump said about future plans, warning Iran to expect sustained US military action.The US and Israel were reportedly preparing to launch operations targeting Iran's energy infrastructure over the weekend, according to several media reports late Friday.Market attention has also shifted to the upcoming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting this weekend for clues on potential policy and production decisions.OPEC and its allies are largely expected to stick to their strategy to incrementally raise oil output when seven members meet virtually on Sunday, with the alliance nearing the final stages of completely unwinding production curbs agreed in April 2023, according to sector experts.
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