The disruption at Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, also dubbed Petroline, could follow four paths, from a partial recovery within weeks to a prolonged shutdown that could leave Hormuz as the key export route, Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude analysis at Kpler, said in a Tuesday note.
The pipeline itself remains largely intact, but severe damage to a pumping station could take four to six weeks to repair, Falakshahi said.
Aramco has reportedly started building a bypass around the damaged station, while minor pipeline damage has already been repaired.
Petroline supplied about 1.8 million barrels per day of refinery feedstock and 3.6 million b/d of oil loadings from Yanbu terminals during September to date.
Yanbu loadings rose 1.1 million b/d to 3.6 million b/d through September, while Saudi Gulf loadings increased nearly 2 million b/d to 2.46 million b/d.
Saudi crude shipments through Hormuz without ship-to-ship transfers remain near 600,000 b/d, while Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship flows climbed 1.1 million b/d to 2.5 million b/d month to date, Kpler data showed.
Kpler assigns a 50% probability to its base case, which sees Petroline operations return within six weeks at about 50% of the pre-attack rate.
Under that scenario, West Coast refineries would cut runs and draw inventories, while Aramco would redirect more crude toward East Coast terminals such as Ras Tanura and Juaymah.
Petroline carried an estimated 5.4 million b/d to 5.5 million b/d before the attacks, and a partial recovery could reduce Yanbu exports by 2.5 million b/d to 2.7 million b/d if Aramco prioritizes domestic refinery demand.
Yanbu terminal stocks stand at about 9 million barrels, while other West Coast refinery inventories total 16.5 million barrels, enough for roughly three and nine days of cover.
Higher Ras Tanura loadings could offset some supply losses to Asia, while West-of-Suez deliveries would require about one additional month of travel.
The base case would pull prompt Dubai premiums back from extreme levels while keeping the structure supported, with Murban's premium gradually narrowing, Falakshahi said.
Kpler assigns a 30% probability to a relief scenario, where Aramco could install a temporary bypass within about 10 days and restore Petroline to full throughput.
That outcome would limit disruption to Red Sea exports and West Coast refinery runs, while easing regional tensions could also weaken prompt Dubai premiums and the November-December spread.
Kpler gives a 20% probability to an escalation scenario in which repeated attacks prevent repairs for six months or damage additional pumping infrastructure or Yanbu terminals.
A prolonged outage could exhaust West Coast inventory buffers, while attacks on Abqaiq could remove more Saudi production for several months and intensify competition for remaining global supplies.
Riyadh could expand military operations into Yemen and potentially strike Iranian proxies in Iraq, while the scenario could also disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb passage and affect Ain Sukhna operations, Falakshahi said.
Such an outcome could push oil prices sharply higher, prompting the US to restore sanctions waivers for Russian crude and consider easing its Iranian naval blockade.
Dubai premiums could rise well above $40/bbl, while Brent could climb past $130/bbl before the US eases its naval blockade.
In the most severe scenario, Petroline could remain offline while Yanbu and Muajjiz inventories drain within one to two weeks, leaving Saudi Arabia dependent on Hormuz and making safe tanker passage the key constraint.
Ras Tanura holds 11.4 million barrels at 51% capacity and Juaymah 16.9 million barrels at 67%, leaving about 20 million barrels of spare storage, but Kpler said shipping those barrels would depend on Hormuz access.
The beyond-escalation scenario would provide the strongest support for Dubai premiums, with Murban-Dubai likely widening further as Saudi barrels face greater Hormuz transit risk, Falakshahi said.