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US Oil Update: Futures Drop as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Resumes

Crude oil futures tumbled in midday trading on Wednesday, extending their decline to pre-war levels, as signs of normalized tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran peace talks eased concerns about supply disruptions.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 4.2% to $70.17 per barrel, while Brent futures retreated by 4.4% to $73.58/bbl.Brent prices are trading near pre-war levels amid a recovery in supplies through the Hormuz. Saxo Bank analysts said Brent crude slipped below $77/bbl, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait continues to normalize.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 mmbbls in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.Fuel inventories rose, with gasoline stocks rising by 2.1 million barrels last week, while distillate increased by 3.1 million barrels, the agency said.Gelber & Associates analysts said the selloff in crude markets comes despite a supportive US inventory print, with commercial crude stocks drawing 6.1 mmbbls last week, as product builds and demand concerns kept the bullish impact limited.On Wednesday, President Trump said that Iran had informed him there would be no tolls, insurance costs, or charges of any kind for vessels looking to transit the strategic waterway. Trump, in a social media post, said no money has been given to Iran or released from their frozen assets by the US.Meanwhile, the latest shipping data shows that more commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler reporting 31 verified crossings across commercial and energy-linked vessels.The data analytics firm said the Strait appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.The market is increasingly pricing a steady return of stranded supply following one of the most severe disruptions in recent history, Saxo Bank strategists said, adding that UAE exports have already recovered to about 85% of pre-war levels.On the supply front, Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said additional supply is returning to the markets as the UAE has restored most of its pre-war production levels, while Kuwait and Iraq are also ramping up exports.The temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian crude exports is also projected to further reinforce expectations of a significant increase in regional supplies, Kim said.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Kobo Resources Says Kossou Project Gold Recoveries Averaged 97%

Kobo Resources (KRI.V) on Wednesday said gold recoveries from its Kossou project in Cote d'Ivoire averaged 97%.Employing a conventional gravity and cyanidation flowsheet, samples that were collected from the Jagger and Road Cut Zones at Kossou yielded overall gold recoveries ranging from 94% to 99%, the company said.Chief executive Edward Gosselin described the results as "highly encouraging" as the company advances the project toward a mineral resource estimate later this year.Kobo Resources shares were last seen unchanged at $0.20 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

$KRI.V

Oil & Energy45d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Slides as Tanker Traffic via Hormuz Rises After US-Iran Deal

EMEA crude futures fell in after-hours trading on Wednesday as shipping data showed an increase in tanker transits via the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of the US-Iran peace deal, easing concerns of immediate supply disruption.Brent crude futures retreated by 4% to $74.02 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were down 3.4% to $67.24/bbl.The market is increasingly pricing a steady return of stranded supply following one of the most severe disruptions in recent history, Saxo Bank strategists said, adding that UAE exports have already recovered to about 85% of pre-war levels.Brent prices are trading near pre-war levels amid a recovery in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. "Brent crude slipped below $77 per barrel, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise," Saxo Bank analysts said.On Wednesday, President Trump, in a social media post, said that Iran had informed him there would be no tolls, insurance costs, or charges of any kind for vessels looking to transit the strategic waterway. Trump said no money has been given to Iran or released from their frozen assets by the US.Trump's remarks come shortly after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal to end the Middle East conflict. Under the memorandum, both sides agreed to reopen the Strait toll-free for at least 60 days and to end all hostilities, including in Lebanon.The latest shipping data shows that more commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler reporting 31 verified crossings across commercial and energy-linked vessels.Kpler said the Hormuz appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.Macquarie strategists said global commodities markets are poised for a faster-than-anticipated normalization after the reopening of the Strait, with Brent price projected to average about $77/bbl in 2026 and $64/bbl in 2027.On the supply front, Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said additional supply is returning to the markets as the UAE has restored most of its pre-war production levels, while Kuwait and Iraq are also ramping up exports.Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 mmbbls in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. Crude inventories are now about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.Gelber & Associates analysts said the selloff in crude markets comes despite a supportive US inventory print, with commercial crude stocks drawing 6.1 mmbbls last week, as product builds and demand concerns kept the bullish impact limited.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Crude Markets to Normalize Faster after Hormuz Reopening, Macquarie Says

Global commodities markets are poised for a faster-than-anticipated normalization after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Macquarie strategists said in a note on Wednesday.Macquarie, in its latest commodities compendium, said oil markets had absorbed an "unprecedented" period of supply disruption, geopolitical tension and technological change with greater resilience than expected, supported by excess supply, high inventories and flexible refining systems.The bank projected that crude prices fell about 20% over the past month, driven by easing risk premiums and manageable crude and product draws.Macquarie analysts said that expectations of a prolonged, one- to two-year normalization period for global oil flows were overstated.Disagreeing with this outlook, the analysts noted that supply chains and trade routes established during the disruption were likely to leave the system "more flexible and diversified" going forward.Macquarie revised its Brent oil price forecasts for 2026, with the average at about $77 per barrel, while the 2027 forecast is about $64/bbl. The WTI 2026 price forecast is estimated at $71/bbl, and the 2027 forecast is $60/bbl.The bank also slightly raised its US natural gas forecast for 2026 to $3.28 per million British thermal units, citing continued growth in associated gas production.Macquarie said its base case assumes a full reopening of the Hormuz, with production and supply expected to return faster and in larger volumes than consensus forecasts suggest.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Petrobras Approves $1.2 Billion RD, SAF Plant as China Fuel Exports Accelerate, TPH Energy Says

Petrobras (PBR) approved a 230-million-gallon renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel plant in Brazil, while China and Paraguay advanced their renewable fuel initiatives, TPH Energy said in a note on Wednesday.Petrobras plans to begin construction of the Sao Paulo facility later in 2026, with startup targeted for 2030, under a project carrying a $1.2 billion investment.Brazil's Fuel of the Future law will require an increase in sustainable aviation fuel use beginning next year, according to TPH Energy.China exported 310,000 metric tons of used cooking oil in May 2026, up 44% from the previous month and 62% from the year before. The volume marked the country's highest monthly total in the past 18 months, with the US receiving nearly one-quarter of shipments.Consultancy JLC expects China's renewable diesel and SAF exports to rise to 1.32 million metric tons, or 414 million gallons, in 2026 from 0.98 million metric tons, or 307 million gallons, in 2025, supported by stronger European demand and Germany's recently approved 2026-2040 renewable fuel targets.Paraguay is raising its diesel biofuel blending mandate from 5% to 8%- 10% to cut fuel costs and support environmental objectives. The country will likely rely on imports to meet the higher requirement because domestic capacity for renewable diesel and biodiesel remains limited, TPH Energy said.Price: $16.43, Change: $-0.61, Percent Change: -3.55%

$PBR

Oil & Energy45d ago

Investors From Middle East Eye Western Markets for Stability, Ironhold Capital Founder Says

Middle Eastern investors are steering capital toward the US and other Western markets in search of secure and economically attractive opportunities, according to Paul Gray, founder and managing partner of New York-based investment firm Ironhold Capital.In an interview with, Gray said investors were moving capital from the Middle East to the US and other Western markets, as Middle Eastern assets were seen as expensive compared to opportunities elsewhere."The wealthy folks in the Middle East want to invest in the West," Gray said. "We've gotten a couple of calls ourselves, even though it's not our specialty. Typically, we raise money here in the States, but we've gotten a couple of calls from people out there just looking to get some diversification, looking to invest in a Western market where their money is going to be protected by the US government."Multiple media outlets cited Musabbeh Al Kaabi, Abu Dhabi National Oil CEO of upstream operations, earlier this month that the UAE state-owned energy major is looking for opportunities in Canada's upstream and liquefied natural gas sectors via its international arm, XRG.In April, the Financial Times reported that the company intends to invest tens of billions of dollars to establish a natural gas business in the US as part of its efforts to diversify. The company is assessing 29 possible deals as part of its plan to create a vertically integrated global gas business, the report said, citing Nameer Siddiqui, the chief investment officer of XRG.Last November, Saudi Arabian energy giant Aramco unveiled 17 memoranda of understanding and agreements with major US companies, with a potential combined value of more than $30 billion. The deals build on 34 MoUs and agreements unveiled in May that carried a potential value of about $90 billion. Together, the agreements support potential collaboration opportunities between Aramco and US companies worth around $120 billion, the company said in a statement issued then.The agreements included an MoU with MidOcean Energy on a potential investment in the Lake Charles liquefied natural gas project as well as a deal with Commonwealth LNG covering its Louisiana liquefaction project and the potential purchase of LNG and gas by Aramco Trading.According to Gray, putting investor money in higher-risk energy markets like Nigeria, Guyana, and Brazil is risky because of political instability. Venezuela despite its huge energy reserves required significant capital investment due to its technological limitations. However, countries like the US and Canada provided a sense of security to investors due to its as democratic systems with established constitutions and legal frameworks."So, money that you and your investors put into the market in a sense is protected by the government, so to speak. Because they're protecting your interests," Gray said.On renewables, Gray said despite the advances made in the sector, the limitations in technology to store such energy meant that fossil fuels were here to stay for at least the next decade. "Obviously, solar, wind, they've made some progress. But there's been very limited progress in batteries, storing energy because we do a decent job of capturing energy. But being able to store it and hold it for a long time and then distribute it on a grid, it's not quite there yet.""I think countries should certainly move in that direction because that's where the technology is going. But like I mentioned before, it's not good enough for us to get rid of oil and gas entirely."A stronger pivot towards renewables is now seen as a stronger possibility as world leaders advocate alternative energy sources.President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has called for electrification across Europe to speed up the shift to a more secure, affordable, and competitive clean energy future, while condemning the weaponization of fossil fuels, which she said left economies vulnerable.

Oil & Energy45d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Declines Over 4%; Brent Sinks to Pre-War Levels

Oil futures collapsed over 4% on Wednesday, with Brent prices rebounding to pre-war levels as the US-Iran peace deal continues to weigh on prices while supply recovers through the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 4.2% to $70.11 per barrel, their lowest since early March, while Brent futures slumped 4.3% to $73.78/bbl and hit their lowest since Feb. 27."If ceasefire talks hold, Hormuz flows normalise and shut-in barrels return, crude can stay under pressure," said Abhishek Kumar, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities."Brent looks headline-driven for now, with a soft bias if implementation goes smoothly, but clear upside risk if there is any delay, tanker incident, insurance issue, toll dispute or renewed regional escalation," Kumar added.Multiple oil tankers previously stranded in the region are preparing to navigate out of the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point as the market braces for a supply spike.Physical crude oil prices are plummeting globally as surging Middle Eastern supply, boosted by a temporary reprieve from US sanctions on Iran, floods the market, Reuters reported on Wednesday.ING analysts noted that because Saudi Arabia and the UAE deployed pipeline diversions during the conflict, the broader Persian Gulf supply will entirely recover to pre-war levels once transit volumes through the strait hit roughly 14 million barrels per day.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that he has formally directed the Department of Justice to launch an immediate investigation into major oil companies, alleging they engaged in corporate price gouging at the pump.

Oil & Energy45d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Prices Back to Pre-War Levels as Supply Concerns Ease

Crude oil prices extended their decline on Wednesday, with Brent dropping to pre-war levels as supply via the Strait of Hormuz recovers.Front-month Murban crude futures declined 3.4% to $67.24 per barrel, hovering near their lowest since Mid-February, while Brent futures slumped 4.3% to $73.78/bbl, its lowest since Feb. 27."Brent crude slipped below $77 per barrel, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise," Saxo Bank analysts said.Multiple oil tankers previously stranded in the region are preparing to navigate out of the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point.Furthermore, ING noted that because Saudi Arabia and the UAE deployed pipeline diversions during the conflict, the broader Persian Gulf supply will entirely recover to pre-war levels once transit volumes through the strait hit roughly 14 million barrels per day."We continue to believe that the oil sell-off is overdone, with the market still tightening," ING added.On the geopolitical front, while Washington claimed Tehran had agreed to permanent, indefinite nuclear inspections, Iranian officials promptly disputed having made such structural concessions, exposing the ongoing fragility of the framework, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Saipem Sells Saudi Shallow-Water Drilling Business to ADES for $285 Million

Italian oilfield services group Saipem said on Wednesday it had agreed to sell its shallow-water drilling business in Saudi Arabia to ADES for $285 million in cash.The divestment of Saudi Arabian Saipem includes a fleet of three owned jack-up rigs, Perro Negro 7, 8, and 10, and two leased rigs, Perro Negro 11 and 13.SAS reported revenues of about 636 million Saudi riyals ($170 million) for the full year 2025.The deal, which is projected to close in Q3 pending regulatory approvals, is part of Saipem's broader strategic pivot to exit shallow-water operations to focus on the higher-margin deepwater and harsh-environment offshore drilling segments.Under the terms of the agreement, Saipem will continue to operate the Perro Negro 10 rig in Mexico through a bareboat charter agreement following the transaction's completion to ensure the fulfillment of existing commitments.The transaction value is on a debt-free/cash-free basis, subject to customary adjustments. Saipem said proceeds from the sale will be funneled toward the group's existing industrial plan objectives.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Market Chatter: Iran Output Relief Triggers Global Crude Discounting

Physical crude oil prices are plummeting worldwide as surging Middle Eastern supply boosted by a temporary reprieve from US sanctions on Iran, floods the market, Reuters reported on Wednesday.Cash Dubai flipped to a 27-cent per barrel discount on Tuesday, while regional grades like Oman and Murban widened their discounts, it said.Conversely, cheap Middle Eastern barrels have closed the arbitrage window for Atlantic Basin crude heading to Asia, flipping US WTI Midland from a premium to a 45-cent discount, the report noted.Meanwhile, North Sea Forties sank to a $1 discount to dated Brent and West African grades like Angolan Nemba were being sold at steep discounts of nearly $8 under the benchmark, as per the report.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy45d ago

Market Chatter: Middle East Crisis Underscores Urgency of Energy Transition, Says China Envoy

China's climate envoy said that global oil and gas shortages stemming from the US-Iran conflict should compel nations to quicken their transition to clean energy, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.While some governments have temporarily reverted to coal to counteract immediate fossil fuel deficits, Liu Zhenmin, China's special envoy for climate change, emphasized at a World Economic Forum panel in Dalian that this approach offers only a fleeting fix, the report said.The report stated that long-term energy security and supply certainty require nations to accelerate their structural shift toward sustainable power.The envoy suggested that international markets look to China's model, which boasts dominant wind and solar installations, expanding electric vehicle networks, and robust battery storage capacity.The country simultaneously maintains massive oil reserves and leads in global coal extraction, however.Liu contrasted Beijing's resilience with the situation in India, where fuel deficits sparked public unrest and forced domestic oil refiners to absorb steep financial losses to prevent consumer price spikes, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy45d ago

Baker Hughes Awarded Engineering Contract at Nigeria's ANOH Gas Processing Plant

Energy services company Baker Hughes (BKR) has been awarded a contract for repair services and engineering advisory at the ANOH Gas Processing Plant in Nigeria, one of its major onshore gas projects, it said in a statement on Tuesday.Baker Hughes has been involved with the project for several years, having supplied an integrated power island for the facility that included 16 gas turbines, the first such in Sub-Saharan Africa, together with compressors and gears.The agreement provides for the maintenance of the plant's installations as well as engineering support.The processing plant is a key component of Nigeria's strategy of developing domestic natural gas resources for power generation and industrial use to move away from more emissions-intensive oil.Baker Hughes will fulfil the contract through its service center in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, it said.

$BKR

Oil & Energy45d ago

Global Gas Flaring Surges for Third Year: World Bank Report

A World Bank report showed global gas flaring rose for a third straight year to 167 billion cubic meters in 2025.This increase wasted an estimated $54 billion worth of natural gas at a time when many nations face severe energy shortages, according to the Global Gas Flaring Tracker released Tuesday.Gas flaring refers to the burning of natural gas associated with oil extraction.When operators drill for oil, natural gas also flows to the surface. Instead of capturing and selling this gas companies often burn it off as waste due to a lack of pipelines, regulation, or market infrastructure.According to the report ending routine flaring globally requires $70 billion to $100 billion in infrastructure investments. This total cost is less than twice the market value of the gas currently burned away each year.The report further noted nine countries including Russia, Iran, Iraq, and US cause over 80% of all global flaring, even though they account for less than half of global oil production.Many of these same countries import expensive liquefied natural gas while burning off their own domestic supply, the report added.While countries like Kazakhstan have successfully cut flaring through strict policy, it said that progress has stalled globally due to inadequate regulation, low capital investment, and weak government leadership.

Oil & Energy45d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop Amid Progress on US-Iran Peace Deal, Rising Hormuz Traffic

European natural gas futures edged lower on Wednesday as the continued progress in US-Iran peace talks further ease supply risks.Front-month Dutch TTF contracts were down 0.90% to 41.635 euros ($47.25) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP futures dropped 1.26% to 99.030 British pence ($1.31) per therm.In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he had "agreed to allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain open, with no further naval blockade," a move that could pave the way for the normalization of vessel traffic through the waterway and the gradual restoration of Middle Eastern LNG flows.Traffic through the strategically crucial Strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, touched a new high, with 55 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This, however, is still below the typical daily average during peacetime, at 138 vessels, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, this comes at a time when China's LNG imports are starting to increase "as it ensures sufficient stockpiles for the peak summer period."This does not bode well for European markets, which are dealing with depleted inventories, at just 46.97% of capacity, compared to 56.23% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 61.4%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy45d ago

Trump Alleges Price Gouging as Crude Correction Outpaces Gasoline Price Decline

US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that he has directed the Department of Justice to launch an immediate investigation into major oil companies, accusing them of price gouging in downstream business.The president's directive highlights an asymmetrical lag between rapidly tumbling crude oil prices, which are now close to pre-war levels, and retail gasoline pricing.According to the Energy Information Administration's gasoline and diesel fuel update, US gasoline prices averaged $3.914 per gallon for the week ended June 22.On the other hand, crude prices have declined sharply over the last two weeks, losing the geopolitical risk premiums that pushed oil prices briefly to a peak of $120 per barrel as the US-Iran conflict escalated in the last few months.Trump warned energy executives that retail fuel costs must decline at an accelerated pace to match the broader collapse observed in upstream energy benchmarks."Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I'm seeing," he said.Trump did not name any oil majors in the post.

Oil & Energy45d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Slips as Stranded Persian Gulf Supply Recovers

Brent futures extended losses on Wednesday following signals that stranded tankers are exiting the Persian Gulf, signaling a steady return of global oil supply after severe maritime disruptions.The Brent futures contract fell more than 1% to $76.21 per barrel hovering near early-March levels. Murban futures closed at its lowest since Mid-February at $69.63/bbl on June 23 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update."Brent crude slipped below $77 per barrel, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise," Saxo Bank analysts said.Multiple oil tankers previously stranded in the region are preparing to navigate out of the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point.ING analysts noted that because Saudi Arabia and the UAE deployed pipeline diversions during the conflict, the broader Persian Gulf supply will entirely recover to pre-war levels once transit volumes through the strait hit roughly 14 million barrels per day."We continue to believe that the oil sell-off is overdone, with the market still tightening," ING added.On the geopolitical front, while Washington claimed Tehran agreed to permanent, indefinite nuclear inspections, Iranian officials promptly disputed making such structural concessions, exposing the ongoing fragility of the framework, Reuters reported on Tuesday.The oil market now awaits US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.

Oil & Energy46d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Slips as Markets Focus on Hormuz Flows After US-Iran Deal

Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Tuesday as markets assessed crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following signs of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by 0.7% to $73.37 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped by 0.9% to $77.15/bbl.ING strategists said the gradual increase in flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the market, while positive signals from US-Iran talks in Switzerland have weighed on sentiment.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that Iran would not be able to levy tolls in the strategic waterway as part of any final agreement with Washington, adding that such an arrangement would violate international law."No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway," Secretary Rubio said.On Tuesday, President Trump said in a social media post that 19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait on Monday, while pointing to falling oil prices.Kpler strategists said that the US-Iran peace deal, which triggered a temporary easing of sanctions, is expected to provide relief from shipping disruptions in the Strait, but the market remains far from a return to normal trade conditions.The analysts said the immediate increase in vessel movements reflects the unwinding of a massive backlog rather than a surge in fresh supply.The latest data show that more commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler reporting that confirmed crossings rose from 32 vessels between June 12-14 to 93 between June 19-21.However, Oman and Iran agreed on Tuesday to press ahead with discussions on the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.The two countries agreed to establish a joint working group between their foreign ministries to continue discussions on the future framework governing navigation via the Hormuz.Pressuring crude prices, the US on Monday authorized the sale of Iranian oil and fuels as part of an agreement to end the Middle East conflict.The US Treasury Department issued a 60-day license that allows Iran to sell its energy products through Aug. 21 and make payments in US dollars. The waiver also allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products into the US.Marine Traffic said in a post on X that the recovery in shipping flow was supported by recent diplomatic developments and the temporary general license, which has helped ease immediate compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits until Aug. 21.Saxo Bank strategists said the temporary license is expected to facilitate the export of some of the estimated 30 million barrels that left Iranian ports last week.

Oil & Energy46d ago

Elevated Tanker Rates Weigh on Gulf Crude Exports Despite Rebound in Hormuz Traffic, Kpler Says

High tanker freight rates in the Middle East Gulf are weighing on crude exports from the region despite a recovery in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, according to Kpler analyst Matt Wright, in a Tuesday note.Wright noted that freight rates on the MEG-Asia route are expected to "remain elevated" due to uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran agreement and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.These high rates are in sharp contrast with narrowing crude differentials in the region. As a result, Very Large Crude Carrier freight costs rose to 19% of the value of Abu Dhabi benchmark Murban crude as of last week."That exceeds the previous record of 17% set at the start of the conflict," Wright said.Wright noted bullishness in MEG-China VLCC freight rates over the next two to four weeks. He attributed the outlook to owner caution and limited willing tonnage entering the Gulf, pushing rates higher despite a recovery in Hormuz transits.Additionally, prompt Gulf crude differentials are expected to remain under pressure.With freight rates hitting 19% of Murban value, the highest on record, refiners are unwilling to pay higher free-on-board premiums.FOB essentially entails the delivery of cargo onto the ship at the point of origin, where the buyer pays for freight, insurance, and other transportation costs. An FOB crude price reflects the value of crude at the export terminal, excluding shipping and insurance costs.Kpler pegged Atlantic Basin VLCC freight rates as "constructive." However, unladen ballast vessels continue to remain scarce."Vessel repositioning toward the Gulf and continued owner reluctance to ballast west should tighten Atlantic availability," according to the note.The analyst said owner earnings are expected to remain bullish. "Owners already positioned in the Gulf retain pricing power while uncertainty persists," Wright said.Freight normalization could be achieved through a sustained period of uninterrupted Hormuz transits and clear security guarantees.Uncertainty prevails around the MoU between the US and Iran signed last week, Kpler said."Following the signing of the MoU between the US and Iran last week, under which Iran agreed to allow transits through the Strait of Hormuz to resume unimpeded, the number of tankers entering and exiting the MEG climbed to 17 on 20 June, up from just two a week earlier," according to the note.However, this increase occurred shortly before Iran announced that the strait was closed again. "As expected, outbound vessels account for the majority of transits so far," Wright said.The first four weeks since the MoU are "critical" for rebuilding shipowner confidence, with volatility and uncertainty around the Strait's status delaying the process.Shipowner sentiment remains cautious toward transits through the strait."As a result, transits remain limited, and freight remains elevated, broadly in line with our expectations," according to the note.However, the analyst said that tonnage outside the MEG continues to rise, while the number of vessels willing to enter remains relatively low."Availability outside the Strait is not the constraint; owner willingness to bring vessels into the Gulf remains the bottleneck," according to the note.The rise in transits aligns with Kpler's estimates.Since the MoU was signed on June 18, 12 VLCCs have entered the MEG.Of these, five carried sanctioned-linked cargoes in the previous 12 months, and all seven non-Iranian-linked vessels can be linked to South Korean shipping company Sinokor, which controls nearly 130 VLCCs and therefore retains significant negotiating leverage in the market."Consequently, while more VLCCs are entering the Gulf, the shift has not materially improved charterers' negotiating position," according to the note.The concentration of willing vessels has limited charterers' bargaining power and prevented a significant easing of freight costs despite increased tanker arrivals.Wright said they remain bullish on MEG-China VLCC freight rates through early July, citing constrained vessel availability within the Gulf and a slower-than-expected recovery in owner confidence."The key downside risk is a rapid normalization in owner behaviour that brings a larger share of the waiting fleet back into the Gulf faster than cargo demand expands," the report said.

Oil & Energy46d ago

Rubio Says No Country Allowed to Charge Tolls in International Waterway

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday said that no country is permitted to charge tolls in international maritime corridors."No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That's existing international law," Rubio said when asked whether the US and its allies can guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.Rubio made the remarks during a press interaction at the Al Bateen Executive Airport in Abu Dhabi.He said discussions over the last 72 hours established a framework for progress with Iran, although negotiations remain ongoing.Asked about Iran's claim that it had not agreed to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, Rubio said, "We know what they agreed to do.""And now they'll either do it or they won't. And if they do, the process moves forward. And if they don't, the President will have some decisions to make," Rubio added.Rubio said the US is consulting Gulf partners following meetings in Switzerland and wants their views considered as negotiations move forward."I think there's a framework and an outline upon which we can make real progress. I think good groundwork was laid over the last 72 hours, but a lot of work remains to be done," Rubio said.The Secretary said Gulf allies support efforts to achieve peace, while emphasizing that regional security and economic concerns remain important considerations in the talks.Rubio said discussions about any future reconstruction fund for Iran remain premature and would depend on decisions made by Iran's leadership as well as progress on broader security matters."If Iran makes a decision, if its leadership makes a decision that they want to be a country instead of a revolutionary movement that exports terror, they're going to have an opportunity to do incredible things in Iran," Rubio said.

Oil & Energy46d ago

US-Iran Deal Eases Shipping Risks, Hormuz Normalization Remains Fragile, Kpler Says

The US-Iran peace deal that triggered a temporary easing of sanctions is expected to provide relief from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but the market remains far from a return to normal trade conditions, Kpler strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The US's issuance of OFAC General License X, which authorizes certain transactions involving Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals through Aug. 21, creates what Kpler described as a "real de-escalation signal" for shipping and cargo risk.Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler, said crude prices have fallen to a three-month low amid expectations that Iranian supply and Hormuz traffic could begin to normalize.However, Kpler said the immediate increase in vessel movements reflects the unwinding of a massive backlog rather than a surge in fresh supply.The data analytics firm said that about 570 commercial vessels were delayed as of June 22. Subasics said that even at a clearance pace of about 15 vessels per day, it could take nearly 40 days to restore normal traffic, with port congestion and compliance checks likely to extend the process.The US-Iran agreement is largely being seen as a de-risking signal rather than a return to pre-crisis trade.Traffic via the Hormuz picked up between June 18 - 21, with 108 vessel crossings recorded over the four days, a sharp increase from the single-digit daily levels seen during the crisis. However, Kpler said that the movements mainly represented delayed voyages resuming.Iran had maintained seaborne crude exports of about 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day before the US blockade in April, meaning the agreement does not create new exports from scratch.Subasic said that, instead, the peace deal temporarily legitimizes some existing flows and improves confidence among cargo owners and ship operators.General License X authorizes transactions "ordinarily incident and necessary" to covered oil trades and allows certain dealings involving blocked vessels. However, it does not remove sanctions on ships, operators, or counterparties, leaving many shadow-fleet vessels and trading entities exposed to secondary sanctions risks.Kpler said that cargo screening would still need to be conducted at the entity level and that any collapse of the agreement could quickly return Iranian-related trade to an effectively off-limits status.Kpler's base case scenario assumes the current framework remains temporary, while a broader lifting of sanctions would require progress in nuclear negotiations and eventual endorsement by the United Nations Security Council.The data analytics said another source of uncertainty lies beyond the initial 60-day period. Though Iran is expected to provide free passage through the Strait of Hormuz during that window, Tehran has indicated it may later seek to impose charges for navigation and maritime services.Kpler analysts said the fees could create new compliance risks, as payments to Iranian state entities would require sanctions screening and may complicate banking and insurance arrangements.

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Oil & Energy46d ago