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Crude Markets to Normalize Faster after Hormuz Reopening, Macquarie Says

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Global commodities markets are poised for a faster-than-anticipated normalization after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under a US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Macquarie strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

Macquarie, in its latest commodities compendium, said oil markets had absorbed an "unprecedented" period of supply disruption, geopolitical tension and technological change with greater resilience than expected, supported by excess supply, high inventories and flexible refining systems.

The bank projected that crude prices fell about 20% over the past month, driven by easing risk premiums and manageable crude and product draws.

Macquarie analysts said that expectations of a prolonged, one- to two-year normalization period for global oil flows were overstated.

Disagreeing with this outlook, the analysts noted that supply chains and trade routes established during the disruption were likely to leave the system "more flexible and diversified" going forward.

Macquarie revised its Brent oil price forecasts for 2026, with the average at about $77 per barrel, while the 2027 forecast is about $64/bbl. The WTI 2026 price forecast is estimated at $71/bbl, and the 2027 forecast is $60/bbl.

The bank also slightly raised its US natural gas forecast for 2026 to $3.28 per million British thermal units, citing continued growth in associated gas production.

Macquarie said its base case assumes a full reopening of the Hormuz, with production and supply expected to return faster and in larger volumes than consensus forecasts suggest.

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