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Update: Market Chatter: France Mulls Potential Tax on TotalEnergies' Excess Q1 Profits as Energy Prices Climb

France has not ruled out a potential exceptional tax on TotalEnergies (TTE) to redistribute excess profits earned by the French energy giant, amid soaring global energy prices, the country's Budget Minister David Amiel told Bloomberg in an interview on Sunday.Speaking with France's Radio J, Amiel said that "there is no taboo" around implementing such a tax, but added that, at least for now, the most effective way to ease pressure on household budgets was by "capping fuel prices at the pump."This comes following a strong Q1 performance by the company, prompting a boost to its dividends and stock buybacks, even as it struggles with disruption to its operations in the Persian Gulf.TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, had warned last month that any such surcharge by the French government would lead to the company bringing an end to fuel price caps at its stations.While no decision has been made, Amiel said that "when there are exceptional profits, there should be exceptional redistribution," adding that while France was lucky to have Total, the company was just as lucky to have France.TotalEnergies responded to' request for comment, making reference to its May 7 statement which said that it was a private company and was taxed for its corporate business in France accordingly.Taxing the company for its overseas operations, it said, would equate "to ignoring the reality of international oil taxation and introducing double taxation, contrary to the principle of tax territoriality, a principle that the European Union and France consistently uphold in the international order,".(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$TTE

Oil & Energy37d ago

Market Chatter: France Mulls Potential Tax on TotalEnergies Excess Q1 Profits as Energy Prices Climb

France did not rule out a potential exceptional tax on TotalEnergies (TTE), aimed at taxing and redistributing the excess profits earned by the French energy giant, amid soaring global energy prices, the country's Budget Minister David Amiel told Bloomberg in an interview on Sunday.Speaking with France's Radio J, Amiel said that "there is no taboo" around implementing such a tax, but added that, at least for now, the most effective way to ease pressure on household budgets was by "capping fuel prices at the pump."This comes following a strong Q1 performance by the company, prompting a boost to its dividends and stock buybacks, even as it struggles with disruptions to its operations in the Persian Gulf.TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, had warned last month that any such surcharge by the French government would lead to the company bringing an end to its fuel caps at its stations.While no decision has been made regarding this so far, Amiel has said that "when there are exceptional profits, there should be exceptional redistribution," adding that while France was lucky to have Total, the company was just as lucky to have France.TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to' request for a comment on this story.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$TTE

Oil & Energy37d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Nearly 2% Amid Persistent Uncertainties in Strait of Hormuz

European natural gas futures were up on Monday, reaching their highest levels in nearly six weeks, amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.The front-month Dutch TTF contract gained 1.67% to 51.005 euros ($59.32) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month rose 1.65% to 125.70 British pence ($1.67) per therm.On Sunday, US President Donald Trump reportedly told Axios over a phone call that "the clock is ticking" for Iran, while warning that the country was "going to get hit much harder" if the regime does not return with a better offer for the long-pending deal with the US.Mohsen Rezaee, a top Iranian official, warned US forces that the "Sea of Oman could become your graveyard" if tensions in the region were to rise further, according to a report by The Hindustan Times.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the 12th week running, with just 3 vessels transiting through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Analysts at ING once again reiterated their view that "the gas market is underpricing the scale of the supply impact from the Persian Gulf," as Asian buyers increasingly tap spot markets to make up for lost supplies and European gas storage remains depleted.European natural gas inventories stood at 36.33% of capacity, down from 44.13% during the same period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 49.5%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, leaving the bloc in a tight position.

Oil & Energy37d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Rises as Middle East Supply Crisis Deepens

Brent crude futures rose above the $110 per barrel mark on Monday as a prolonged Middle East crisis and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to choke global supplies.The Brent futures contract gained 1.4% to $110.74 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $108 on May 15 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update."Brent trades back above [$]111, rising for a third consecutive day with no end in sight to the Middle East crisis," Saxo Bank analysts said.HFI Research noted that the industry is on the verge of witnessing "record-breaking onshore crude inventory draws," predicting that the upcoming weekly data will showcase one of the largest total crude draws in history.In response to these dynamics, HFI Research confirmed it has maxed out its long oil exposure as of Friday's close.The prolonged shipping blockade is forcing both financial institutions and global governments to brace for a severe supply crunch.JP Morgan analysts stated that a core assumption of their framework is that an accelerating depletion of oil inventories will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.However, the bank warned that even if shipping flows resume by early June, the market is expected to stay structurally tight well into the second half of the year.Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain highly volatile.Saxo Bank analysts highlighted recent comments from Donald Trump to Axios, where he stated, "We want to make a deal," but warned that Iran "will have to get there or they will be hit badly,".As the blockade persists, the Financial Times reported that nearly 80 countries have introduced emergency economic shielding measures.Saxo Bank analysts warned that the global market is entering a dangerous phase and approaching a potential tipping point, with traders anticipating another sharp rise for oil prices if the strait remains closed.

Oil & Energy39d ago

Weekly Crude Benchmarks Surge on Hormuz Disruptions, Geopolitical Gridlock

Oil benchmarks rose over the week as an escalating geopolitical gridlock and severe maritime security threats in the Middle East overrode short-lived diplomatic optimism.West Texas Intermediate settled at $105.66 per barrel, up from $94.68/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $109.18/bbl, up from $100.14/bbl a week earlier.WTI registered weekly gains of 10.48%, while Brent was up 7.79%.The upward weekly trajectory was fueled by the prolongation of an effective closure at the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which eroded global safety buffers and triggered supply anxieties that overshadowed high-level discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, analysts noted.Trump departed Beijing on Friday after meeting with President Xi during a two-day diplomatic visit to China without securing a breakthrough to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.During a press briefing on Air Force One, Trump said he discussed lifting sanctions on Chinese companies purchasing Iranian oil with Chinese President Xi Jinping."... I'm going to make a decision over the next few days," Trump said about potentially lifting sanctions.The US recently sanctioned several Chinese refiners tied to Iran's oil trade as Washington expanded economic pressure on Tehran, while China has remained the largest buyer of Iranian crude shipments.China wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened as energy flows through the route remain heavily disrupted following recent tensions with Iran. "He'd like to see it opened up," Trump said.Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, said Friday that China wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened quickly while supporting efforts to maintain the ceasefire, China's state-owned media outlet Xinhua reported.China believes a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire offers the long-term solution to issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Wang said during a press briefing in Beijing.Wang also said China encourages the US and Iran to continue resolving disputes, including nuclear-related issues, through negotiations.The week began with a sharp rally after President Trump rejected an Iranian peace counteroffer, labeling it "totally unacceptable" and declaring the existing ceasefire to be on "massive life support."This diplomatic collapse dashed market hopes for a quick fix, while momentum amplified as Washington levied new sanctions against an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oil-shipping network accused of using front companies across Oman, Hong Kong, and the UAE to bypass restrictions.The physical severity of the 10-week blockade was laid bare by mid-week industry reports.The International Energy Agency's May oil market report confirmed that an unprecedented 14.4 million barrels per day of Gulf production was shut in, while Bloomberg satellite imagery showed Iranian export terminals grinding to a virtual standstill.ANZ analysts warned that if the chokepoint remains closed, the second quarter of 2026 will suffer the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 6.5 mb/d.Crude prices experienced a temporary mid-week reprieve, pausing on Wednesday and retreating on Thursday following reports that Iran had allowed a limited convoy of about 30 vessels to cross the strategic chokepoint.This brief easing coincided with the Trump-Xi summit, though President Trump downplayed any imminent diplomatic breakthrough regarding the energy crisis.Bearish demand revisions also capped gains, as OPEC downgraded its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 1.2 mb/d and the IEA revised its outlook to a demand contraction of 420,000 b/d.Furthermore, OPEC data revealed that its April production had plummeted by 1.73 mb/d to 18.98 mb/d, a steep decline that reflected the final month of the UAE's membership in the producer group.Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration released its May Short-Term Energy Outlook earlier this week. The EIA slightly lowered its Brent crude price outlook for 2026 while raising its 2027 forecast, reflecting a shift in the expected supply-demand balance.Near-term prices were supported by tighter market conditions driven by supply disruptions and lower inventories, while expectations of weaker demand growth and improving supply conditions shaped the medium-term outlook. The agency still expects prices to ease into 2027 as markets normalize.Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to keep global oil markets tight after 10.5 mmb/d of Middle East crude output went offline in April, the EIA said.Brent crude is seen averaging about $106/bbl in Q2 2026 as global inventories fall sharply, according to the EIA STEO. The agency expects prices to later ease to about $89/bbl in Q4 2026 and $79/bbl in 2027 as Middle East supply gradually recovers.Crude and petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 14.6 mmb/d in Q1, down from 20.7 mmb/d in Q4 2025 and 20.4 mmb/d in Q1 2025, according to the EIA's Global Energy Security data released Wednesday.However, the market's mid-week pullback was abruptly reversed on Friday as physical shipping threats flared up once again.Sentiment soured rapidly following reports from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations that a commercial vessel was boarded and seized by unauthorized personnel at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz and forced into Iranian waters.This incident closely followed the confirmed sinking of an Indian merchant ship in the nearby Gulf of Oman.Compounding the physical supply friction, the US Central Command said in an X post on Friday, "As of today, 75 commercial vessels have been redirected and 4 have been disabled to ensure compliance."On the supply front, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 mmbbls in the week ended May 8, the EIA said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 0.3% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.The US oil rig count rose by five from 410 the previous week to 415, in the week ending May 15, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 465 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by three to 675 from 672 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended May 12, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 214,128 long positions, up 89 from May 5, while short positions increased by 2,462 to 82,083.

$BKR

Oil & Energy39d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Jumps as Trump-Xi Meeting Fails to Ease Supply Fears

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Friday after President Trump departed Beijing without securing a breakthrough to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 4.44% to $105.66 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 3.55% to $109.47/bbl.On Friday, Trump reportedly said he didn't push President Xi to pressure Iran to open the Hormuz, offering no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff over the key chokepoint. China is the top buyer of Iranian crude.The US President reportedly said that he is losing patience with Iran. "I am not going to be much more patient. They should make a deal," Trump was quoted as saying."President Trump said he does not need Hormuz reopened, although discussions with Chinese President Xi included the ongoing conflict and energy security concerns," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said China is set to increase its crude oil imports from the US as the world's two largest economies deepen energy ties amid significant global supply disruptions, according to media reports."There's a natural energy trade there," Wright reportedly said, noting that the US is the world's largest producer while China remains the top importer. "I suspect we'll see a growth in their oil imports from the United States."However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Tehran has "no trust" in the US and will negotiate only with Washington if it is serious. Araqchi said that Iran is prepared to return to fighting but also to pursue diplomatic solutions."Currently, trust is the most important issue. We cannot trust the Americans at all. As a result, everything has to be precise, and everything has to be clearly defined before we can reach an agreement," Araghchi told reporters in New Delhi on Friday.Meanwhile, Chinese FM Wang Yi says Beijing believes a solution to issues in the Strait of Hormuz "lies in achieving a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire" between the US and Iran, adding that "force cannot solve problems.""China is likely to support a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but on terms that preserve its flexibility," Kpler strategists said, adding that the closure threatens global growth, Asian energy markets and the export demand underpinning China's economy.On the supply front, the Middle East conflict has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain "severely undersupplied" until October even if hostilities end next month, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.The IEA said that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day.OPEC also said on Wednesday that crude production among member states fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the conflict in late February. The producer group said production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March.

Oil & Energy39d ago

Wright Sees Hormuz Reopening This Summer, US Gas Exports Rising

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Friday that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could resume this summer if negotiations with Iran progress."Traffic will be flowing through the Straits of Hormuz," Wright said during a CNBC interview, reposted by the Department of Energy.He added that shipments could resume "sometime this summer or later.""If Iran continues to hold the world economy hostage, the US military will force the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz," Wright said, while describing diplomacy as the preferred solution."There is confusion. There is faction among the regime," Wright said about Iran's leadership, adding that internal divisions could eventually result in regime change.Referring to disruptions linked to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Wright said the market had lost about 10 billion cubic feet per day of gas exports for now.However, he added that the US is still adding about 2.5 Bcf/d of new export capacity this year."We're continuing to ramp up US natural gas exports," Wright said. "It'll be a record again this year, with a record last year."Wright said the US currently exports about 20 Bcf/d of natural gas, roughly double the volumes exported by the next-largest global suppliers.Wright said the US had sharply reduced the number of drilling rigs needed to expand natural gas production and had shifted from being the world's largest importer to the world's largest exporter.When asked whether global oil production could rise significantly over the next several years through increased output from countries such as Venezuela and the UAE, Wright said it would.Wright added that the rising global living standards will continue increasing long-term demand for both oil and natural gas across international energy markets.

Oil & Energy40d ago

UAE, India Deepen Energy Ties with Crude Storage, LPG Agreements

India and the UAE deepened their energy partnership on Friday as state-owned energy firm Adnoc Group signed strategic agreements with Indian energy firms during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Gulf nation.The agreements expand cooperation across crude oil storage, liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and strategic petroleum reserves.Adnoc signed an agreement with Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves to explore opportunities for crude oil, LNG, and LPG storage in India and the UAE.The deal includes the potential expansion of Adnoc crude storage capacity in India to about 30 million barrels, building on existing storage in Mangalore and including possible new facilities at Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Chandikol in Odisha.The two sides will also study the possibility of storing crude oil in Fujairah, UAE, as part of India's strategic petroleum reserve system, as well as collaboration on LNG and LPG storage infrastructure in India.Separately, Adnoc signed an agreement with Indian Oil Corporation to explore expanded LPG supply and trading opportunities.The agreement builds on an existing LPG term contract between the companies, signed in 2023, and is expected to lead to a long-term LPG sale-and-purchase agreement between Adnoc Gas and Indian Oil.Adnoc said the deal also envisages deeper integration across supply and shipping operations, including through Adnoc Global Trading.

Oil & Energy40d ago

UAE Fast-Tracks Oil Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz, Double Export Capacity by 2027

The UAE is accelerating the expansion of its West-East oil pipeline to double export capacity via Fujairah by 2027, a move aimed at further reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in a Friday statement.The directive came from Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed, who ordered ADNOC to fast-track the project.Officials say construction is already underway and could bring the pipeline online as early as next year.The decision comes amid rising tensions with Iran, which has expanded its claimed operational control over the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Gulf of Oman.Iranian forces have released new maritime control maps and have been linked to attacks on regional energy infrastructure, including incidents near Fujairah, which the UAE has condemned as "economic blackmail."The existing Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline remains central to the UAE's strategy, moving up to 1.8 million barrels per day to the Gulf of Oman coast outside the strait.Alongside Saudi Arabia, the UAE is one of the few Gulf producers able to bypass the chokepoint at scale, while others remain heavily dependent on it.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Select Tankers Resume Hormuz Transit Despite Blockade Risk, Kpler Says

Select crude and liquefied petroleum gas tankers resumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz this week as Iran allowed about 30 vessels to pass under managed protocols, Kpler said Friday.Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency said Thursday Tehran approved vessel movements after Beijing requested smoother shipping access for strategic partners, according to Kpler.Kpler identified 11 vessels that crossed the strait, including five liquefied petroleum gas tankers and two Very Large Crude Carriers, while more ships may have crossed without AIS signals.Eneos said Thursday that the VLCC Eneos Endeavor successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, becoming only the second Japanese crude carrier to clear the Gulf since late February, Kpler added.The tanker loaded about 1.2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude and 700,000 barrels of Das crude from the UAE before it became stranded in the Gulf for over two months.Kpler said the Eneos Endeavor stopped transmitting AIS signals near Dubai on May 9, resurfaced off Muscat on May 13, and later entered the Arabian Sea after clearing the US blockade zone while signaling Kiire, Japan, as its destination.After loading Basrah Medium crude in early March, the Chinese VLCC Yuan Hua Hu cleared the Gulf on May 13 during the Xi-Trump summit in Beijing and is currently signaling Zhoushan, China, as its destination.The Yuan Hua Hu turned off AIS transmissions on May 9, resurfaced near Iran's Larak Island four days later, and later broadcasted location signals intermittently during transit.Kpler said the VLCC Agios Fanourios I reversed course near the Arabian Sea and failed to complete its voyage despite keeping AIS transmissions active throughout the journey.The tanker loaded 2 million barrels of Basrah crude for Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery and remains anchored near Muscat after turning back earlier this week.PV OIL warned US officials that critically low inventories at Nghi Son Refinery could force the facility to halt throughput if delays continue, Kpler added, citing Reuters.

Oil & Energy40d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Rally as Trump Leaves China Without Breakthrough

Crude oil futures surged in midday trading on Friday after President Trump departed China without securing a breakthrough to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns that disruptions to global supplies will deepen.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 3.95% to $105.17 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 3.23% to $109.12/bbl."President Trump said he does not need Hormuz reopened, although discussions with Chinese President Xi included the ongoing conflict and energy security concerns," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.On Friday, Trump reportedly said he didn't push President Xi to pressure Iran to open the Hormuz, offering no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff over the key chokepoint. China is the top buyer of Iranian crude.The US President reportedly said that he is losing patience with Iran. "I am not going to be much more patient. They should make a deal," Trump was quoted as saying.Chinese FM Wang Yi reportedly said Beijing believes a solution to issues in the Strait of Hormuz "lies in achieving a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire" between the US and Iran, adding that "force cannot solve problems."Iran has "no trust" in the US and is only interested in negotiating with Washington if it is serious, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday, adding that Iran is prepared to return to fighting but also to pursue diplomatic solutions.Araghchi said "trust is the most important issue," while addressing reporters in New Delhi on Friday, adding that they "cannot trust Americans at all.""As a result, everything has to be precise, and everything has to be clearly defined before we can reach an agreement," Araghchi reportedly said.Liquidity Energy strategists said crude extended gains overnight on reports that little progress was made during the Trump-Xi summit toward resolving disruptions impacting Middle East energy shipments.Meanwhile, flows through the Hormuz are easing following a ship seizure near the strategic waterway.On Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center says it received a report of a vessel being "taken by unauthorized personnel" near the UAE emirate of Fujairah. UKMTO said the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE in the Gulf of Oman, where it was anchored.China is likely to support a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but on terms that preserve its flexibility, Kpler strategists said, adding that the closure threatens global growth, Asian energy markets and the export demand underpinning China's economy.On the supply side, the Middle East conflict has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain "severely undersupplied" until October even if hostilities end next month, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.The IEA said that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day.

Oil & Energy40d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Climbs 3% as Trump Warns Iran Over Hormuz Deadlock

EMEA crude futures climbed in after-hours trading on Friday after President Trump left Beijing talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping without clear progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly said he is losing patience with Iran.Brent crude futures rose by 3.34% to $109.25 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 2.62% to $107.44/bbl."Oil prices moved toward a weekly gain as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, prolonging disruptions to global energy supplies and keeping markets on edge," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.On Friday, Trump said he did not push President Xi to pressure Iran to open the Hormuz, offering no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff over the key chokepoint. China is the top buyer of Iranian crude.The US President reportedly said that he is losing patience with Iran. "I am not going to be much more patient. They should make a deal," Trump reportedly said."The Trump-Xi summit was held against a backdrop of a Middle East conflict that shows no signs of resolution," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.Chinese FM Wang Yi reportedly said Beijing believes a solution to issues in the Strait of Hormuz "lies in achieving a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire" between the US and Iran, adding that "force cannot solve problems."Iran has "no trust" in the US and is only interested in negotiating with Washington if it is serious, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday, adding that Iran is prepared to return to fighting but also to pursue diplomatic solutions.Meanwhile, flows through the Hormuz are easing following a ship seizure near the strategic waterway.On Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre says it received a report of a vessel being "taken by unauthorized personnel" near the UAE emirate of Fujairah. UKMTO said the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE in the Gulf of Oman, where it was anchored.The US Central Command said on Friday it has redirected 75 commercial vessels and "disabled" four as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.On the supply front, the Middle East conflict has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain "severely undersupplied" until October even if hostilities end next month, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.The IEA said that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day.OPEC also said on Wednesday that crude production among member states fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the conflict in late February. The producer group said production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Market Chatter: Wang Says Xi-Trump Talks Produced Constructive Outcomes, China Urges Hormuz Reopening

Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, said Friday that China wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened quickly while supporting efforts to maintain the ceasefire, China's state-owned media outlet Xinhua reported Friday.China believes a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire offers the long-term solution to issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Wang said during a press briefing in Beijing.Wang also said China encourages the US and Iran to continue resolving disputes, including nuclear-related issues, through negotiations.China will continue to promote peace talks and support efforts to end the war and restore peace in the Middle East, Wang said.Wang said President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump achieved fruitful outcomes after holding extensive meetings during Trump's May 13 to May 15 visit to China.Xi and Trump spent nearly nine hours in formal talks, a welcome banquet, private meetings and visits, while both leaders stressed mutual respect and cooperation, Wang said.According to Wang, the leaders agreed on building a constructive China-US relationship focused on strategic stability and long-term cooperation between the two countries.The two sides also expressed willingness to expand exchanges covering diplomacy, military affairs, economy and trade, health, agriculture, tourism, law enforcement and cultural ties, Wang said.He added that the new framework supports cooperation, manageable competition, stable handling of differences and long-term peace, while rejecting zero-sum games that benefit one side at the other's expense.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China didn't immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy40d ago

Trump May Lift Sanctions on Chinese Firms Buying Iranian Crude

US President Donald Trump said Friday that he discussed lifting sanctions on Chinese companies purchasing Iranian oil with Chinese President Xi Jinping.Trump made the remarks on Friday aboard Air Force One after meeting President Xi during a two-day diplomatic visit to China."... I'm going to make a decision over the next few days," Trump said about potentially lifting sanctions.The US recently sanctioned several Chinese refiners tied to Iran's oil trade as Washington expanded economic pressure on Tehran, while China has remained the largest buyer of Iranian crude shipments.China wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened as energy flows through the route remain heavily disrupted following recent tensions with Iran. "He'd like to see it opened up," Trump said.China gets about 40% of its energy and oil through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, while discussing Beijing's dependence on the passage.On Iran, Trump said, "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Not going to happen," while rejecting Tehran's latest proposal over nuclear restrictions."They agreed to it, but then they took it back, but they'll agree to it eventually," Trump said about Iran's earlier willingness to remove nuclear material before reversing its position.Trump added that President Xi strongly opposed Iran obtaining nuclear weapons during bilateral discussions on Friday, saying, "He feels strongly they can't have a nuclear weapon."Trump said the US-imposed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cost Iran roughly $500 million per day in lost oil-related revenue."We control the strait, and they've [Iran] done no business... in the last two and a half weeks, which is approximately $500 million a day," Trump said.The US imposed the blockade around the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 after peace talks with Iran collapsed, escalating military operations aimed at restricting Tehran's oil exports and shipping access.The ceasefire followed requests from other nations, although the US blockade remained effective and sharply restricted Iranian commercial activity in the region, Trump added."We could knock out their bridges and their electrical capacity within two days," Trump said while warning the US could quickly target Iran's remaining infrastructure if military operations resume."He's got one of the greatest oil finds anywhere in the world, and he's not using it," Trump said while urging UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to expand North Sea drilling."He doesn't want to see a movement for independence," Trump said about Xi's Taiwan position, adding he would decide later on future US arms sales to Taiwan.Oil prices jumped on Friday following Trump's diplomatic visit to China, with Murban up 2.6% at $107.44 per barrel, Brent crude rising 3.3% to $109.23/bbl, and West Texas Intermediate gaining 3.9% to $105.07/bbl.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Atlantic Basin Crude Differentials Soften on Weak APAC Demand, SPR Releases, RBC Says

Atlantic basin physical crude differentials have weakened in recent trading amid softer demand from the Asia-Pacific region, alongside Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a Thursday note.This has eased supply tightness, enabling prompt delivery. "Despite the ongoing supply disruptions out of the Middle East, Atlantic Basin physical crude differentials have remained softer over the last few weeks as seemingly weaker appetite out of APAC and the release of SPR volumes have provided some relief to prompt tightness," analysts said in a weekly commentary.RBC analysts said that buyers' crude sourcing patterns have shifted. Lower refinery activity also increased crude availability across the Atlantic Basin, helping calm prompt market tightness despite continuing Middle East supply disruptions.All these aspects, combined with drawdowns in US commercial inventories, have moderated physical market differentials.RBC analysts highlighted this point, citing Bonny Light crude, which has recently traded at a premium of $3.20 per barrel.Another contributing factor was the softening of the Dated-to-Front Line, the spread between Dated Brent and the front-month futures, in recent trading sessions.RBC still expects oil fundamentals to improve later this summer as refinery runs increase and ongoing outages continue reducing inventories."However, we maintain that the physical market will likely strengthen in the coming weeksbarring underestimated refinery-level demand destruction, as supply outages persist and inventories draw going into summer demand season and the likely increases in refinery activity," RBC analysts said.For natural gas, RBC said seasonal price swings will likely become more extreme, with larger summer and winter peaks gradually pushing yearly averages higher.The bank expects Henry Hub gas prices to remain between $2.76 per million British thermal units and $3.25/MMbtu during Q2 before climbing above $3.51/MMBtu later this year.RBC forecasts US gas production will increase by 1.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and by another 1.2 Bcf/d in 2027."We have been conservative on supply growth, and with production having pared back slightly from high levels, we still think our conservative (vs peers) supply growth forecast for this year and next is fair," RBC strategists said, noting, "We expect production growth of 1.7 and 1.2 Bcf/d in 2026 and 2027, respectively, in annual average terms".The bank also said expanding liquefied natural gas exports and rising electricity demand from data centers will eventually require stronger production growth.RBC said US solar manufacturers filed another tariff circumvention request targeting Chinese-linked solar products imported through Ethiopia.According to the bank, Ethiopian solar module imports increased sharply in June 2025 after duties started on products shipped from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.RBC also said regulators imposed initial duties this year on solar imports from India, Laos and Indonesia after investigators found Chinese firms rerouted products through those countries.The bank said Ethiopia, the Philippines, Nigeria and Kenya represented 77% of US solar module imports in March 2026, rising from 6% during 2025 as suppliers shifted export routes.According to RBC, markets expect economic pressure to force a reopening soon, but the bank questioned whether negotiations can quickly restore normal shipping activity.The Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen in June, while continued shipping disruptions could tighten oil markets during the summer demand season, analysts said.The bank said disagreements surrounding Iran's uranium reserves and enrichment program continue to reduce the likelihood of a fast diplomatic breakthrough.RBC expects Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to maintain its influence over the Strait, as the waterway now plays a larger strategic role for Tehran.Even after a possible agreement, Western shipping firms may avoid paying transit fees to sanctioned Iranian groups, while security risks could discourage shipowners from returning.Shipping specialists also told RBC that traffic volumes may remain restricted unless vessels regain unrestricted access and Iran loses military control over the route.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Strait of Hormuz Unlikely to Return to Normal Flows in June, RBC Says

Expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will quickly return to normal maritime traffic levels in June are based on "magical thinking" and underestimate the political and operational barriers to restoring flows, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Thursday.There is an emerging consensus that the Strait could reopen next month as economic pressure mounts, but there is little evidence that shipping volumes will recover to pre-Feb. 27 levels in the foreseeable future.RBC analysts said that oil market disruptions could persist well into the summer demand season.The analysts said assumptions of a rapid resolution rely on the belief that policymakers can easily "switch on" maritime traffic once costs become unbearable, a view that overlooks the strategic and security realities now embedded in the Middle East conflict.Though a large-scale US ground operation could reopen the Hormuz, RBC sees little political appetite in Washington for a prolonged Middle East military commitment, especially one involving over 100,000 troops and a potential regime-change objective in Tehran.Further military action is expected to fall short of a full invasion capable of changing control of the strategic waterway.RBC analysts also questioned expectations of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, citing unresolved disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and uranium stockpiles.The analysts said even in the event of a deal, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard would seek to retain leverage over the Strait, given its growing strategic importance."The Strait has become critical to deterrence dynamics," the analyst said, adding that Iran is unlikely to surrender what it now views as a key instrument of influence.RBC also cast doubt on the assumption that external actors, including China, would provide decisive pressure or capital to resolve the standoff, saying that Beijing may see strategic benefits in the current situation, including the redistribution of US military assets away from Asia.Under a scenario in which Iran retains operational influence over the waterway, the bank said global shipping flows could normalize only at structurally lower levels, potentially similar to the disruption seen in the Red Sea, where traffic remains about 56% below pre-conflict levels despite prior de-escalation agreements.The return to partial normalization even in such a scenario is expected to take time due to vessel rerouting, logistics constraints, and persistent security risk premiums.RBC forecasts that, under a sustained disruption scenario, crude losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of the month and reach 1.5 billion barrels if conditions persist into June.The bank said that crude prices could eventually exceed levels seen during the Russia-Ukraine crisis and approach 2008 peaks as summer demand tightens balances.

Oil & Energy40d ago

US Oil Update: Oil Futures Climb on US-Iran Rhetoric Over Continued Blockade

Crude prices gained on Friday as aggressive rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran shattered expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 2.6% to $103.81 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 2% to $107.88/bbl."Oil headed for a weekly gain... as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with the US naval blockade of Iran's ports still in place," Saxo Bank analysts said.Optimism faded completely following conflicting updates from world leaders speaking in Beijing.US President Donald Trump reportedly warned that his patience with Iran was "running out." Trump added that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed during their high-stakes summit that Tehran must unconditionally reopen the chokepoint.However, Iran quickly rejected the pressure. Speaking from the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared that Tehran has "no trust" in Washington, Reuters reported.He emphasized that Iran would only return to the negotiating table if the US proved it was serious about talks, leaving diplomatic efforts to end the maritime hostilities deadlocked, as per the report.With Persian Gulf shipping paralyzed, energy markets are increasingly focused on rapidly dwindling global safety buffers."The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more attention is focused on inventory levels. If the US Department of Energy's weekly inventory report shows another significant drawdown in US oil stocks, this is likely to support oil prices," Commerzbank analysts said.The US Energy Information Administration confirmed severe physical tightening in its weekly report on Wednesday noting crude inventories plummeted by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels for the week ended May 8.

Oil & Energy40d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Roughly 4% Despite Uptick in Hormuz Traffic

European natural gas futures were up on Friday despite an uptick in Strait of Hormuz traffic, after Iran permitted several vessels to transit through the Strait.The front-month Dutch TTF contract gained 3.68% to 49.41 euros ($57.46) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month rose 4.23% to 121.72 British pence ($1.64) per therm. Both Dutch TTF and UK Gas were set to end the week up by 12.16% and 12.87%, respectively, according to TradingEconomics.On Thursday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said around 30 ships had crossed the strategically crucial strait, after taking Tehran's permission, according to a report by the Times of India.This was confirmed by the Hormuz Strait Monitor, which reported 30 vessels transiting through the Strait over the past 24 hours, marking a major uptick in traffic relative to recent weeks. This is, however, still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 vessels before the conflict began.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran, warning that he would not be "much more patient" going forward, during an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity.Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi has said that the US should abandon its maximalist demands to proceed with a deal during a meeting with Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow during the BRICS meet in New Delhi on Thursday.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, there are still little to no signs of supply disruptions easing.At the same time, he warned that the "pockets of demand for LNG" across South Asia, could intensify competition with European markets, for a limited pool of global supplies.This also comes at a time when Europe is knee deep into its refilling season with significantly depleted gas inventories, at 35.85% of capacity, compared to 43.36% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also below the five-year average of 48.8% during this period, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy40d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Rises as Supply Concerns Mount

Oil benchmarks climbed on Friday headed for a weekly gain as a commercial tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz and the forced rerouting of 70 vessels by US Central Command raised Middle East shipping risks.Front-month Murban crude futures rose by 1.5% to $106.31 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 2.2% to $108.09/bbl.The price gains reflect a market reacting to immediate shipping threats in the Middle East alongside tightening alternative options for Asian refiners, analysts noted.The ongoing blockade is draining the world's backup oil supplies, overshadowing high-level statements from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing."The two leaders discussed increase[d] oil trade, and both agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," ANZ analysts said.However, the market mood soured rapidly after a UK naval monitoring group reported that a commercial vessel was boarded and seized by unauthorized personnel at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz.The captured tanker was reportedly forced into Iranian territorial waters, an incident that comes after the confirmed sinking of an Indian merchant ship in the nearby Gulf of Oman.These severe security disruptions occurred even as four tankers carrying 2 million barrels of primarily Iraqi crude successfully braved the high-risk transit route earlier this week.Adding to physical supply friction, the US Central Command confirmed it actively rerouted 70 commercial vessels as part of its ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports.This aggressive enforcement coincides with growing anxiety among major Asian energy buyers, particularly in India, where a US sanctions waiver on Russian oil-on-water cargoes is scheduled to expire this weekend.While Indian refiners have imported bumper volumes of discounted Russian crude under the temporary exemption, Washington has yet to grant New Delhi's formal request for an extension, analysts noted.

Oil & Energy40d ago

UK Unveils Energy Independence Bill Amid Middle East Volatility

The UK government will introduce an Energy Independence Bill to accelerate homegrown renewables and shield consumers from price shocks, in response to Middle East volatility that represents a threat to national security, it said on Wednesday.The legislation aims to reduce exposure to international fossil fuel markets and strengthen regulatory oversight of the energy sector, as per the statement.The proposed legislation will establish a framework to shield consumers from international price shocks while expanding the statutory powers of the energy regulator, Ofgem, to oversee third-party market intermediaries and bolster consumer protections.The government also announced a dedicated Nuclear Regulation Bill to spearhead what it said was a new era of British nuclear energy generation.The legislation will codify the recommendations of the recent Nuclear Regulatory Review, aimed at streamlining the country's fragmented and overly-cautious regulatory framework, it said.Key structural changes will include the implementation of a single lead regulator model and the establishment of a unified Commission on Nuclear Regulation to eliminate duplicate oversight, drive down capital costs, and shorten construction timelines for both civil and defence nuclear assets, it said.

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Oil & Energy39d ago

Weekly Crude Benchmarks Surge on Hormuz Disruptions, Geopolitical Gridlock

$BKR