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Refiners Surge 53% as Iran Conflict Boosts Margins, TPH Energy Says

Refining stocks surged 53% in Q1 2026 as fuel margins spiked, though earnings lagged expectations with average earnings per share seen at $0.19, TPH Energy Research said Thursday.The quarter was marked by sharp volatility as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply, pushing refining margins higher despite operational and cost-related headwinds, the report said.Global refining activity dropped to about 80 million barrels per day in March from 86 million b/d in January, reflecting Middle East disruptions and feedstock shortages in Asia, TPH added.Fuel margins surged in response, with US gasoline and diesel cracks jumping to $13 per barrel and $46/bbl in March from $6/bbl and $22/bbl earlier in the quarter, the report added.However, average gasoline margins remained weak at $9/bbl for Q1, pressured by strong US refinery utilization of about 91.5%, which kept supply elevated, according to TPH.Diesel margins performed better, averaging $30/bbl, supported by stronger demand running about 1% above five-year average levels and supply disruptions linked to Iran.The Singapore market saw sharper gains, with gasoline and diesel cracks rising to $16/bbl and $41/bbl, up about $3/bbl and $18/bbl over the quarter, according to TPH.Additional tailwinds included wider heavy crude differentials, tighter West Coast supply following refinery closures, and regulatory benefits for smaller refiners.Despite strong margins, earnings disappointed due to weak capture rates of about 66%, as higher crude prices and derivative losses weighed on profitability, TPH added.Other pressures included lower returns on residual products such as asphalt and increased compliance costs tied to renewable fuel obligations, the report added.These headwinds offset benefits from improved crude sourcing and stronger jet fuel spreads, leaving analysts below consensus for several major refiners.Looking ahead, Q2 profitability is expected to improve significantly, supported by stronger margins with gasoline and diesel indicators near $9 and $47 per barrel, it said.TPH forecasts average Q2 earnings per share at $4.66, above consensus of $3.93, with stronger performance expected across all covered refiners, it said.TPH said it is particularly bullish on Phillips 66, Valero (VLO) and Par Pacific (PARR), citing improving fundamentals despite continued caution around margin capture and cost pressures.Price: $241.76, Change: $+6.76, Percent Change: +2.88%

$PARR$VLO

Oil & Energy158d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Gains as US-Iran Talks Signals Offset Hormuz Closure

EMEA crude futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as the market weighed signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has roiled global energy markets.Brent crude futures climbed by 2.46% to $93.52 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.63% to $101.48/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said oil has steadied amid signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key Arabian Gulf commodities.US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations.However, the two sides are reportedly pivoting toward a temporary memorandum to avert renewed hostilities, scaling back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal after talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough.Though US and Iranian mediators have signaled optimism regarding a de-escalation framework and resumption of talks, deep-seated friction over Iran's nuclear program continues to stall a final resolution."The oil market continues to edge lower amid hopes that the US and Iran extend their ceasefire by another 2 weeks, along with a potential resumption in talks to bring an end to the war," ING strategists said in a note on Thursday.The Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts said the physical market is tightening by the day as each passing day without a restart of oil flows via the Strait.The analysts estimate that about 13 million barrels per day have been disrupted, and the figure could rise further with the US blockade.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington will not renew sanctions waivers for some Iranian and Russian oil. On Wednesday, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on a number of individuals, firms and vessels linked to Hossein Shamkhani.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Trump Says Israel, Lebanon Agree to 10-Day Ceasefire

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting 5 p.m. ET, following talks with both leaders.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had held "excellent conversations" with Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding both sides agreed to a ceasefire.Trump said, "These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve peace between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day ceasefire."He added that the two nations met for the first time in 34 years, and the talks were held in Washington.Trump said he directed Vice President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, "to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a lasting peace."In a follow-up post, Trump said, "I will be inviting the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, and the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, to the White House for the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983."Trump added, "Both sides want to see peace, and I believe that will happen, quickly!"Separately, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, said a Lebanon ceasefire is as critical as one involving Iran, stressing Tehran's continued push for broader regional truce efforts, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.Israeli attacks have displaced over 1.2 million people, while Iran reiterated support for Lebanon and resistance groups amid ongoing hostilities, Tasnim reported, citing Lebanon's parliament speaker.Meanwhile, Iran reportedly expressed skepticism about renewed US talks, casting doubts on Washington's commitments, and alleged that recent Pakistan-mediated negotiations failed to produce results due to distrust.A two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 enabled talks in Islamabad, where Iran proposed a ten-point plan, but after 21 hours of negotiations, no deal was reached, Tasnim News added.

Oil & Energy158d ago

LNG Market Hit by Supply Shock as Europe Faces Tighter Outlook, OIES Says

Global LNG supply fell about 20% in Q1 2026 after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, triggering price shocks across Europe and Asia, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies strategists said Wednesday.The disruption largely impacted Asia, as most Persian Gulf exports from Qatar and the UAE are directed there, though price effects were also felt strongly in Europe, OIES said.Supply flows did not halt immediately, as cargoes shipped before the closure continued arriving through March and early April, delaying the full physical impact on importers.OIES expects a sharper supply squeeze in April, when the absence of fresh shipments from the Persian Gulf becomes more visible across the global market.The disruption followed the European Union's move to ban Russian liquefied natural gas from Jan. 1, 2027, and pipeline gas by Nov. 1, 2027, tightening future supply expectations, OIES said.Even with additional output from North America, the loss of Gulf supply would prevent the market from becoming oversupplied, keeping conditions tighter than previously expected.Despite higher prices, gas demand in Europe has not declined materially and is likely to remain stable through 2026 due to limited short-term flexibility, except in some commercial use, according to OIES.Lower gas consumption in the power sector this summer may ease pressure, helping Europe secure an additional 6 billion cubic meters needed to refill storage amid what is expected to be a tighter LNG market, OIES added.Even if the disruption is short-lived, the price shock and renewed supply concerns are expected to boost interest in alternative energy sources, including low-carbon gases and electrification, particularly in Europe over the medium to longer term, OIES said.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Iran Reportedly Halts Petrochemical Exports Following Israeli Attacks

Iran has suspended exports of all petrochemical products to prioritize domestic needs and curb price volatility, following Israeli attacks on its petrochemical facilities, according to multiple media outlets.The Supreme National Security Council has reportedly issued a directive to ban exports until further notice to prevent a shortage of raw materials used by the downstream industry.The export suspension was first reported by Iranian news agencies, citing a letter from a senior National Petrochemical Company official to the chief executives of petrochemical complexes.Israeli strikes on Apr. 4 and 6 have damaged pipelines and power supply at key petrochemical production hubs in Asaluyeh and Mahshahr, ICIS reported.Despite supply disruptions and rising global prices, the government has kept domestic petrochemical prices at pre-war levels to support consumers, Reuters reported.The instruction to cease petrochemical exports followed the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Apr. 13. The blockade aims to curtail Iran's exports.National Petrochemical Company did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Iran is a major producer of chemicals such as methanol, ammonia, urea, plastics and polymers, and reportedly exports about 29 million metric tons of petrochemical products annually.

Oil & Energy158d ago

EU Approves $4.9 Billion Aid to Shield Industry From Power Costs

The European Union has approved state aid schemes for Bulgaria, Germany and Slovenia to provide temporary electricity price relief for energy-intensive industries, the European Commission said on Thursday.The measures, cleared under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, will offer financial support totaling 334 million euros ($393 million) in Bulgaria, 3.8 billion euros in Germany and 90 million euros in Slovenia.The Commission said the measures are designed to compensate companies in energy-intensive sectors for part of their electricity costs over the next three years, supporting their continued competitiveness while facing higher energy prices.The support will be limited to industries considered at risk of relocating production outside the EU to regions with weaker environmental standards.The EU executive board said that to qualify, companies must reinvest at least 50% of the aid received into decarbonization measures, such as upgrading assets to reduce electricity system costs without increasing fossil fuel use.The schemes meet CISAF requirements, including a minimum electricity price threshold of 50 euros per megawatt-hour and a maximum support duration of three years.Under the scheme, Bulgaria's scheme will run from July 2025 to June 2028, with aid delivered through electricity suppliers via discounts on monthly bills.Germany's program, running from January 2026 to December 2028, will allow companies to claim payments annually based on verified consumption and wholesale power prices. Slovenia's scheme, covering the same period, will disburse aid twice a year based on projected consumption.The Commission said the measures were "necessary, appropriate and proportionate" to support industrial activity while advancing climate goals, in line with EU state aid rules.The CISAF, adopted in June 2025, allows member states to support key sectors in the green transition, including renewable energy deployment, industrial decarbonization, and clean technology manufacturing.It also enables temporary relief on electricity prices to prevent companies from shifting operations abroad before Europe's energy transition delivers structurally lower power costs.Earlier this week, the Commission launched a consultation on a new Temporary Crisis Framework to address elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Oil & Energy158d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher Despite Reports of US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, despite reports of the US and Iran considering an extension to the current ceasefire by two more weeks, to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 1.85% to 42.16 euros ($49.67) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures rose 2.06% to 105.81 British pence ($1.43) per therm.The ceasefire, which ends on Tuesday, could be extended as negotiators on both sides plan to hold technical talks, which will cover the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear enrichment, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a person familiar with the matter.Meanwhile, the US Central Command has released audio recordings of US Naval vessels enforcing the blockade against Iran, with commercial ships being threatened with "interdiction and seizure" for transiting to and from Iranian ports.Timothy Lawn, a retired US Army Sergeant Major, said on Wednesday that the US decision to blockade Iran, thus preventing the country from supplying energy to China, which accounted for 90% of its crude oil shipments in 2024 and 2025, has led Tehran to "return in a more conciliatory mood to the negotiating table."Lawn flagged Iran's reliance on Chinese inputs for its weapons and missile programs, a vulnerability now exposed by the blockade.During a news briefing on Thursday, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned Iran that US forces in the Middle East were ready to restart combat operations against Iran on a moment's notice, if the country fails to agree on a peace deal."If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy," he warned.Transit through the Strait has edged higher, with 19 vessels passing through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.As such, Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that traders remained mindful of the fact that "supplies remain severely constrained" with the Strait still being effectively closed, despite growing optimism regarding a potential peace deal.He attributed the recent pullback in energy prices to the unwinding of "large net long positions recently accumulated by investment funds."European gas inventories continued to see net injections, with storage still lower at 29.55% of capacity, compared to 35.97% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Oil & Energy158d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Gains Amid Potential Ceasefire Extension Talks

Oil prices rose on Thursday amid reports that the US and Iran were considering a two-week extension of their current ceasefire.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 0.1% to $91.39 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.7% to $95.56/bbl.While the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed by a US naval blockade, investors are pinning hopes on a second round of peace talks to prevent further supply shocks."The two parties are reported to be considering extending their ceasefire by another two weeks to allow for more time to negotiate a peace agreement, according to a Bloomberg report," ANZ analysts said.The current ceasefire is slated to expire on April 21, leaving the market hypersensitive to any signals regarding the extension.Iran has reportedly warned it could retaliate against the continued blockade by suspending shipments in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.ING analysts underscored the fragility of the recovery, noting that "US and Iranian demands remain fairly wide apart."Any breakdown in the peace talks could immediately reignite the war premium, analysts noted.On the supply side, US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy158d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Mixed as Markets Gauge Potential US-Iran Talks

Crude prices were mixed on Thursday as investors assessed the potential for a second round of US-Iran talks.Front-month Murban crude futures eased by 0.5% to $100.38 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.7% to $95.61/bbl.While a US led blockade continues to suppress shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, news of an impending second round of peace talks helped temper recent price volatility, analysts said."Oil has steadied, with Brent holding near $95 on signs the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key commodities from the Persian Gulf," Saxo Bank analysts said.Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly offered to allow commercial vessels safe passage through Omani waters within the Strait of Hormuz, provided a broader agreement is reached to prevent further military escalation.However, "the key upside risk for the market is that peace talks between the US and Iran break down. This isn't an unrealistic scenario, given that US and Iranian demands remain fairly wide apart," ING analysts said.Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below historical averages, as an effective US-Iran blockade continued to disrupt vessel movements in the strategic waterway, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Wednesday.On the supply side, US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Iran Conflict Threatens Long-Term LNG Demand in Asia, IEEFA Says

The war in the Middle East and the resulting disruption to liquefied natural gas supplies have already pushed several Asian countries to pursue alternatives, such as coal and nuclear, for their short-term energy needs, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.The report, published on Wednesday, noted that several LNG projects have been cancelled in China and Vietnam, while others, such as South Korea, India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia, have taken steps to accelerate domestic clean energy generation.The IEEFA noted that despite the spike in short-term profits for LNG exporters, amid high prices and soaring demand, the industry is worried that the crisis is "hindering demand growth."This conflict has already done lasting damage to LNG's reputation as a "transition fuel" for Asian economies, as they move from coal to clean energy, the report authored by Sam Reynolds, a research lead at IEEFA, said.Asia purchased a total of 20.4 million tonnes of LNG in March 2026, down from a monthly average of 22.1 Mt in 2025, according to data from Kpler.In the week ending March 29, the report said Asian weekly LNG imports reached their lowest levels since October 2023, with the largest dip seen in China, with imports down 21% year-over-year, and India following suit with a 20% decline compared to the prior year.The report acknowledged that the growth of renewables was unlikely to eliminate the need for LNG in Asia, while adding that the commodity could be cordoned off to "smaller peaking roles," with significant reductions in volume.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Middle East Energy Supply Crisis Spurs Surge in Thermal Coal Demand, Prices, Wood Mackenzie Says

The disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies due to the Iran war has led to an upsurge in global demand and prices for thermal coal as countries scramble to seek alternatives to secure power supplies, Wood Mackenzie said in a note on Wednesday.The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz waterway since the onset of the war in late February has hit the supply of oil and liquefied natural gas.However, it has had little impact on the thermal coal trade as major exporters including Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Colombia do not have direct exposure to the route.The significant knock-on effects of LNG supply disruptions and higher gas prices have resulted in price-sensitive markets across Asia and Europe preferring a switch to coal. Wood Mackenzie analysts said."In supply shocks of this scale, coal becomes a critical fallback for energy security," said Sushmita Vazirani, Principal Analyst, Bulk Commodities at Wood Mackenzie."Despite decarbonisation commitments across Asia, tightening LNG supply and elevated prices are accelerating fuel switching back to coal."In March, free on board Newcastle 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram coal averaged $126/tonne and rose to $132/tonne in recent trades, compared with $114/tonne in February.The pre-war marginal costs of around $112/tonne are likely to see a further rise, with higher crude oil prices expected to partly account for the spike, Wood Mackenzie said.For every $10-a-barrel rise in crude oil prices, coal mine site costs rise by $1-$3 per tonne, pressurizing an already tight market, the note said."Rising diesel prices are creating a cost squeeze for coal producers, just as markets call for more supply. In Australia, heavy reliance on imported diesel adds an additional layer of risk, potentially constraining output and tightening global markets," Vazirani said.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Market Chatter: EU Drafts Measures to Tackle Looming Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Middle East Conflict

The European Union is preparing measures to deal with a looming shortage of jet fuel, amid the supply crunch resulting from the war in Iran, according to a Reuters report, citing officials familiar with the matter.This comes as European airlines warn of shortages within weeks, with the continent reliant on Middle Eastern flows to meet 75% of its jet fuel demand.According to a draft proposal seen by Reuters, the Commission plans an EU-wide mapping "to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilised and maintained."In the longer term, the bloc also plans measures aimed at jet fuel supplies, but noted that these were still in development.Airlines are already preparing for a potential supply crunch, with Lufthansa CTO, Grazia Vittadini, telling Reuters that the company's suppliers are "changing their forecasting windows, and they're no longer keen to give an outlook over a time window that goes beyond one month."Across Europe, the distribution of jet fuel is uneven, with Spain a net exporter with eight refineries, while the UK imports 60% of what it needs.The European Commission did not immediately respond to' request for a comment on this story.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy158d ago

Middle East Conflict Brings US Close to Net Crude Exporter Position For First Time Since WW2, Data Show

US crude exports surged last week as the Middle East conflict persisted, taking it close to achieving a net export position for the first time since the Second World War, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration Wednesday.Crude exports during the period jumped to their highest level in seven months at 5.2 million barrels per day, while imports dropped week over week by more than 1 mmbbls/d to 5.3 mmbbls/d.Effectively, net imports of crude oil, or the difference between imports and exports, slumped to their lowest on record at 66,000 barrels per day.The US was last a net exporter of crude oil in 1943, based on annual data.Demand for US crude oil has recently soared as Asian and European refiners turned to other regions to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels due to the US-Iran conflict."US crude exports are soaring in the weekly data as expected, with Asian demand for West Texas Intermediate running hot," said Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities.The attractiveness of US crude improved as Brent's premium over WTI surged to more than $20 per barrel in March, Reuters said.Kpler ship tracking data, cited by the news agency, showed that about 37% of last week's US crude exports were headed to Asia, up from 30% in the prior year, with Japan and South Korea the top buyers.Around 47% reportedly sailed to Europe, mainly to the Netherlands, France, and Germany.While US oil is gaining traction among refiners worldwide, Crosby said that "US prices will eventually, perhaps quickly, rise to defend their own inventory."Additionally, US exports may soon plateau as they reach maximum capacity of around 6 mmbbls/d, due to pipeline capacity limitation and vessel availability, according to analysts and traders cited by Reuters.In April, US exports may average about 5.2 mmbbls/d, Kpler analyst Matt Smith reportedly said.has reached out to the EIA seeking further information on export capacity and projections.

Oil & Energy158d ago

Tanker Under Sanctions Enters Persian Gulf Despite Blockade, 2nd VLCC in 2 Days, Reuters Analysis Shows

A second supertanker under US sanctions has entered the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, despite the ongoing US blockade against vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports, according to a Reuters report, citing various ship tracking data.On Wednesday, in a post on X, US Centcom said that 9 vessels had turned around following direction from US forces, while noting that no ships had made it past the blockade over the past 48 hours.According to Iran's Fars News Agency, a supertanker subject to US sanctions passed through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz towards the Imam Khomeini Port. The news agency failed to identify the tanker or provide any additional details regarding its voyage.Reuters also reported another Very Large Crude Carrier, RHN, capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil, entering the Gulf on Wednesday, citing data from LSEG and Kpler.This comes just a day after the US sanctioned VLCC Alicia passed through the Strait, headed towards Iraq, according to data from Kpler.Data from Kpler also show that both tankers have records of carrying Iranian oil over the past few years, as US weighs stern secondary sanctions against buyers of Iran's oil.

Oil & Energy158d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Despite Reports of Ceasefire Extension Between the US, Iran

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, amid reports of the US and Iran considering an extension to the current ceasefire by two more weeks, to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 1.96% to 42.21 euros ($49.72) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures rose 1.91% to 105.65 British pence ($1.42) per therm.The ceasefire, which was set to end on the coming Tuesday, could be extended further, as negotiators on both sides plan to hold technical talks, which include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear enrichment, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a person familiar with the matter.Meanwhile, the US Central Command has released audio recordings of US Naval vessels enforcing the blockade against Iran, with commercial ships being threatened with "interdiction and seizure" for transiting to and from Iranian ports.Transit through the Strait, however, inched higher, with 19 vessels passing through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.As such, Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that traders remained mindful of the fact that "supplies remain severely constrained" with the Strait still being effectively closed, despite growing optimism regarding a potential peace deal.He attributed the recent pullback in energy prices to the unwinding of "large net long positions recently accumulated by investment funds."European gas inventories continued to see net injections, with storage still lower at 29.55% of capacity, compared to 35.97% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Oil & Energy158d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Firm as Traders Assess Geopolitical Risks

Brent futures contract firmed on Thursday as traders weighed fresh diplomatic signals against tight global supplies.The Brent futures contract gained 0.6% to $95.50 per barrel. Murban closed at $100.85 on April 15 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update.While a US led blockade continues to suppress shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, news of an impending second round of peace talks has helped temper recent price volatility, analysts said."Oil has steadied, with Brent holding near $95 on signs the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks aimed at ending a war that has choked global supplies of key commodities from the Persian Gulf," Saxo bank analysts said.Iran has reportedly offered to allow commercial vessels safe passage through Omani waters within the Strait of Hormuz, provided a broader agreement is reached to prevent further military escalation.Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below historical averages, as an effective US-Iran blockade continued to disrupt vessel movements in the strategic waterway, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Wednesday."The key upside risk for the market is that peace talks between the US and Iran break down. This isn't an unrealistic scenario, given that US and Iranian demands remain fairly wide apart," ING analysts said.On the supply side, US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy159d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Steadies as US-Iran Talks Hopes Counter Hormuz Blockade

Crude oil futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Wednesday as the market weighed the prospect of US-Iran peace talks to end the Middle East conflict that has brought traffic via the vital Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.12% to $91.39 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.12% to $94.91/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said the US and Iran are preparing for a second round of peace talks in the coming days, with Tehran reportedly considering a pause in shipments through the Hormuz to smooth negotiations.US crude stockpiles fell by 900,000 barrels to 463.8 million bbls in the week ended Apr. 10, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Total motor gasoline stockpiles decreased by 6.3 mmbbls from last week to 232.9 mmbbls, and distillate stocks dropped by 3.1 mmbbls to 111.6 mmbbls, the agency said.The US and Iran are reportedly considering extending their ceasefire, which ends next Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement. However, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday the US would not renew general licenses that allowed for the temporary sale of certain Russian and Iranian crude."The short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil already stranded at sea is set to expire in a few days and will not be renewed," the Treasury said in a social media post on X.The waiver, issued by the Treasury on Mar. 20, allowed about 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already at sea to reach buyers, primarily in Asia.On Wednesday, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for talks to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations, according to media reports.President Trump is also reportedly voicing optimism about a potential deal with Iran to end the conflict currently paused by a two-week ceasefire.Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the market reads the diplomatic developments as a material de-escalation signal, which is naturally pulling the financial crude contracts lower.Meanwhile, the US Central Command said its blockade of Hormuz is now fully in effect, "completely" cutting off Tehran's international sea trade, which powers about 90% of its economy.The US-sanctioned Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry made its way back to the Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Arabian Gulf the day before, according to media reports.Meanwhile, MarineTraffic said on Thursday the Malta-flagged crude tanker Agios Fanourios I became the first crude carrier to transit the Strait since the US blockade came into force.Karan Satwani, senior analyst, supply chain research at Rystad Energy, said the ceasefire continues to shape the operating environment, alongside risks of disruption and potential blockades affecting shipping via the Hormuz.

Oil & Energy159d ago

US Gasoline Prices Set to Decline, Bessent Says

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday he expects gasoline prices to fall toward $3 per gallon during the summer driving season.Bessent shared the remarks during a press briefing at the White House."I'm optimistic that sometime between June 20 and Sep. 20, that we can have $3 gas again," Bessent said.US gasoline prices are currently averaging about $4.108 per gallon, up sharply from below $3/gal earlier this year before the Iran conflict began, according to a Bloomberg report.Bessent added that the outlook for lower prices depends on progress in negotiations to end the war in the Middle East.Discussions with Middle Eastern counterparts suggest supply could quickly recover, Bessent said, noting that production is expected to resume within a week once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.He said oil producers indicated output could resume within a week once the Strait of Hormuz reopens to normal shipping flows.Bessent also warned that authorities are closely monitoring fuel retailers to ensure price declines are passed on to consumers. "We are going to be watching the gas stations, because they raise prices very quickly," Bessent said.He added that gas stations raised prices rapidly when crude surged and should reduce them just as quickly as oil prices have recently eased.The US is urging Gulf countries to help freeze assets linked to Iran's leadership, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as part of broader financial pressure efforts, Bessent said.

Oil & Energy159d ago

Market Chatter: Iran Proposes Safe Exit Route via Oman Waters in Hormuz Standoff

Iran is signaling a potential breakthrough in its maritime standoff with the US, offering to allow vessels safe passage through Omani waters in the Strait of Hormuz if a broader deal to avert renewed conflict is reached, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing industry sources.The Middle East conflict has triggered the biggest disruption to global oil and gas flows on record, after Iran blocked the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.The conflict, which erupted on Feb. 28, has left hundreds of vessels and an estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded within the Arabian Gulf, the report said.Though President Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, suggesting that the war is close to over, control over the Strait remains a key issue in negotiations.Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Iran may be open to allowing ships to transit through the Omani side of the Hormuz without interference, a move that could ease tensions in the strategic waterway.The proposal, however, depends on whether the US is willing to meet Iran's demands, a condition seen as pivotal to any broader breakthrough over the waterway.The proposition marks a Pivot from Tehran's recent threats to impose a unilateral toll on vessels and assert sovereignty over the strategic chokepoint, which the global shipping industry warned would violate long-standing maritime conventions.The shift comes as member states of the UN's International Maritime Organization gathered in London this week to formally oppose the prospect of an Iranian transit tax.The IMO warned that allowing a nation to charge for passage through an international waterway would set a "dangerous precedent" for global trade.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy159d ago

Market Chatter: US-Iran Truce Extension Talks Advance Amid Hormuz Standoff

The US and Iran are weighing a two-week extension of a ceasefire as their nearly seven-week conflict continues, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.Talks are focused on prolonging the current truce, which is set to expire Tuesday, to allow more time for negotiations toward a broader peace deal.The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains central. Iran has reportedly restricted access to most vessels and signaled it wants to retain control beyond the conflict.In response to' query, the White House said the US has not reached a formal agreement to extend the ceasefire with Iran, but remains engaged in ongoing discussions."The United States has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the US and Iran to reach a deal," the White House told, citing a senior US official.Meanwhile, mediators are pushing for technical-level discussions to resolve key sticking points, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, Bloomberg reported.Tensions reportedly remain elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies that has been largely shut since the conflict began.The US has imposed a naval blockade to restrict Iranian exports, while Tehran has limited access to the waterway for other vessels.Iran warned that the continued US blockade could signal a breach of the ceasefire, with Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran's joint military headquarters, raising concerns, according to state media.Abdollahi reportedly said Iran "will not permit any exports or imports" across key waterways if the restrictions persist.Diplomatic efforts are currently ongoing, with Pakistan continuing to mediate and facilitate communication between Washington and Tehran.Israel is also reportedly weighing ceasefire considerations, though no decision has been finalized amid parallel regional conflicts.An Iranian supertanker transited the Strait of Hormuz into Iranian waters despite the US blockade, Bloomberg reported, citing Iran's semi-official Fars news agency.US gasoline and diesel prices remain at seasonal highs despite crude easing from peak pricing levels, adding pressure on consumers ahead of the summer travel period.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Oil & Energy159d ago