The disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies due to the Iran war has led to an upsurge in global demand and prices for thermal coal as countries scramble to seek alternatives to secure power supplies, Wood Mackenzie said in a note on Wednesday.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz waterway since the onset of the war in late February has hit the supply of oil and liquefied natural gas.
However, it has had little impact on the thermal coal trade as major exporters including Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Colombia do not have direct exposure to the route.
The significant knock-on effects of LNG supply disruptions and higher gas prices have resulted in price-sensitive markets across Asia and Europe preferring a switch to coal. Wood Mackenzie analysts said.
"In supply shocks of this scale, coal becomes a critical fallback for energy security," said Sushmita Vazirani, Principal Analyst, Bulk Commodities at Wood Mackenzie.
"Despite decarbonisation commitments across Asia, tightening LNG supply and elevated prices are accelerating fuel switching back to coal."
In March, free on board Newcastle 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram coal averaged $126/tonne and rose to $132/tonne in recent trades, compared with $114/tonne in February.
The pre-war marginal costs of around $112/tonne are likely to see a further rise, with higher crude oil prices expected to partly account for the spike, Wood Mackenzie said.
For every $10-a-barrel rise in crude oil prices, coal mine site costs rise by $1-$3 per tonne, pressurizing an already tight market, the note said.
"Rising diesel prices are creating a cost squeeze for coal producers, just as markets call for more supply. In Australia, heavy reliance on imported diesel adds an additional layer of risk, potentially constraining output and tightening global markets," Vazirani said.