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Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 11

Home resales accelerated slightly to a 4.02 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in April from a 4.01 million rate in March.Two of the four US regions posted month-over-month sales gains in April, while one declined and the other held steady. Sales were unchanged from April 2025."Despite mixed macroeconomic signals-including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence-home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability," said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. "Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains."The supply of homes for sale rose by 5.8% from March and were up 1.4% from a year ago.

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April US Existing Home Sales Rise Less Than Expected

The pace of US existing home sales increased by 0.2% to a 4.02 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in April from 4.01 million in March, below the expectations for a 4.05 million rate in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET, data from the National Association of Realtors released Monday showed.Total sales were unchanged from a year earlier."Despite mixed macroeconomic signals -- including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence -- home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains."Sales of single-family homes were unchanged, while condominium sales rose by 2.7%.Sales were up in the Midwest and South regions of the country but fell in the West region and held steady in the Northeast region. Compared with a year earlier, sales rose in the South region, decreased in the Northeast and Midwest regions and held steady in the West region.Homes remained on the market a median of 32 days, down from 41 days in March but above 29 days a year ago.The supply of homes for sale jumped by 5.8% to 1.47 million homes in April from 1.39 million in March, up 1.4% from the 1.45 million level a year ago."The increase in second-home purchases reflects stronger finances among higher-income households, as well as the post-COVID rise in remote work and hybrid job schedules," Yun added.The month supply on market increased to 4.4 months from 4.2 months in March and 4.3 months supply a year ago.The median home price increased to $417,700 from $409,100, up 0.9% from $414,000 level one year ago.The monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors measures sales of single-family and multi-family homes for resale at the time of closing, including the number of existing homes available and the median sales price. A strong reading is a positive sign for mortgage lenders and related consumer product companies.

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April US Existing Home Sales 4.02 Million Annual Rate Vs. 4.05 Million Expected, Prior 4.01 Million Rate

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Higher Crude Prices, Persian Gulf Outlook Cap European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked modestly lower midday Monday as traders weighed higher crude prices and US President Donald Trump's rejection on Sunday of an Iranian peace plan response.Bank and oil stocks led modest gains on continental trading floors, while property and food shares lagged.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were up 2.7% at $104.01 a barrel.Investors also eyed muted Wall Street futures amid mixed closes overnight on Asian exchanges.In economic news, the European Central Bank is evaluating the results and possible duration of the Middle East war and is keeping future rate hikes as an option on the table, Governing Council member and Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher said, news outlet Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was off 0.1% mid-session.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 0.1%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index gained 0.3%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index rose 0.5%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index declined 0.8%.The REITE, a European REIT index, fell 0.5%.On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was down 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 in London gained 0.1%. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 1%, and Spain's IBEX 35 eased 0.3%.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were higher, near 3.03%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was steady near 22.40, indicating above-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a negative signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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US Dollar Rises Early Monday, Focus This Week on April CPI, Retail Sales

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a decline versus the Canadian dollar, with the focus this week on consumer price and retail sales data for April.Monday's schedule is light, with only existing home sales data for April at 10:00 am ET.April consumer price data are the highlight on Tuesday. Small business sentiment for April, the monthly Treasury budget for April, and weekly Redbook same-store sales are also due to be released.Producer price data for April and weekly mortgage applications and crude oil stocks data are due to be released on Wednesday.Thursday's busy data schedule includes weekly jobless claims, retail sales and import prices for April, business inventories for March, and weekly natural gas stocks.The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index for May and industrial production data for April are scheduled to be released on Friday.A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:EUR/USD fell to 1.1773 from 1.1781 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.1764 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Monday's schedule. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 11.GBP/USD fell to 1.3608 from 1.3629 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.3604 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday's schedule, but Bank of England Governor Sam Woods is due to speak at 10:40 am ET. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for June 18.USD/JPY rose to 157.1042 from 156.7288 at the Friday US close and 156.7758 at the same time Friday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 15-16.USD/CAD fell to 1.3664 from 1.3681 at the Friday US close, but was above a level of 1.3647 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 10.

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Higher Oil Prices Weigh on Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Mixed, Europe Off

Wall Street futures pointed marginally lower pre-bell Monday, as crude prices rose following President Donald Trump's rejection Sunday of a peace proposal from Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to sea traffic.In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq declined 0.1% and the Dow Jones was flat.Investors also await key economic releases this week from Washington, including the consumer price index (CPI) bulletin for April on Tuesday, the producer price index (PPI) report for April on Wednesday, and the April retail sales release on Thursday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded up 2.6% at $97.94 in morning action.Constellation Energy (CEG) is scheduled to release earnings per-bell.Blue-chips Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Brookfield (BN), Oklo (OKLO), and Nebius (NBIS) are slated to report earnings later this week, among others.Asian exchanges traded unevenly overnight, although Seoul's KOSPI index gained 4.3% to strike a fresh all-time high on AI-sector optimism. European bourses edged lower midday on the continent.On the economic calendar is the existing home sales report for April, at 10 am ET.In pre-market action, bitcoin traded at $81,069, and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.39%. Spot gold commanded $4,665 an ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500

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Wall Street Cues, Oil, Geopolitics Roil Asian Stock Marlets

Asian stock markets largely churned Monday, as traders weighed AI-sector optimism but rising crude prices, and mulled US President Donald Trump's rejection on Sunday of an Iranian peace proposal.Brent crude rose to $103.88 a barrel, up 2.6%, during Asian trading hours.Hong Kong and Shanghai finished in the green, while Tokyo lagged. Another fresh zenith was set on Seoul's KOSPI index, which gained 4.3% after Wall Street-listed tech-sector peer issues rose on Friday. Other regional exchanges were mixed.In Japan, the Nikkei 225 opened higher on AI-sector optimism, but sagged and closed down 0.5% as rising crude prices undercut optimism.The benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 295.77 to 62,417.88, although gaining issues outnumbered losers 131 to 89.Leading the upside was video-game maker Konami, up 10.3%, while Nintendo declined 8.4%, with both moves following earnings releases.In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index opened lower but edged into the green, up 0.1% as traders monitored Middle East turmoil, but better-than-expected trade reports from Beijing.The broad gauge Hang Seng rose 13.13 to 26,406.84, as gaining issues outnumbered losers 51 to 32. The Hang Seng TECH Index gained 0.1% on the day, while the Mainland Properties Index rose 1.3%.Leading the upside was property-developer Longfor, gaining 8.4%, while New Oriental Education & Technology declined 5%.On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.1% to 4,225.02.In economic news, China consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 1.2% on year, while the producer price index (PPI), pushed by crude prices, rose 2.8% in the same time period, reported the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).On the trade scene, China's exports in April grew 14.1% on year to $359.4 billion, while imports grew by 15.3% to $274.6 billion, reported China's Customs Administration.On the other regional exchanges, the Taiwan TWSE inclined 0.5%; the Australian ASX 200 declined 0.5%; the Singapore Straits Times Index rose 0.4%, and the Thai Set declined 0.7%. In late trading in Mumbai, the Sensex was down 1.7%The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4% on the day.

Hang SengNikkei 225Shanghai Composite

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Market Chatter: China's Gold Consumption Up 4.4% in Q1

China's gold consumption grew 4.4% year over year to 303.3 tonnes in the first quarter, Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday, citing the China Gold Association.Gold bar and coin consumption jumped 46% to 202.1 tonnes, while gold jewelry consumption fell 37% to 84.6 tonnes, the report said.Gold exchange-traded funds added 50.4 tonnes in the first three months of the year, with total ETF holdings reaching 298.3 tonnes as of the end of March.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

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China Shipbuilding Output Rises 46% in Q1

The Chinese shipbuilding sector's output grew 46% year over year to about 15.7 million deadweight tonnes in the first quarter, Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday, citing the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.The figure comprised 57% of the global total, the report said.New orders soared 195% to 59.5 million DWT, equivalent to about 85% of the global market share.Holding orders increased 44% to 322.3 million DWT, equivalent to about 70% of the worldwide total.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

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Market Chatter: China Auto Sales Slump for Seventh Month in April, But Exports Surge

China's domestic car sales fell for a seventh consecutive month in April, dropping 22% year on year to 1.4 million vehicles, Reuters reported Monday, citing data from the China Passenger Car Association.The CPCA said combustion engine cars underperformed due to high oil prices, while plug-in hybrid demand also remained sluggish, according to the report.Sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, which made up 61% of total sales, declined 6.8%,. This marked a fourth straight month of losses, Reuters wrote.EV and plug-in hybrid exports jumped 112% from a year earlier, exceeding the 80% rise in overall car exports, according to the report. Global fuel price spikes, driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, boosted overseas EV demand.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

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French Foreign Exchange Reserves Decrease in April

France's foreign exchange reserves fell to 386.90 billion euros in April from 390.63 billion euros in March, according to government data published Monday.The total amount consisted of 310.09 billion euros in gold reserves and 31.65 billion euros in foreign currency reserves, along with 38.68 billion euros in claims on the International Monetary Fund and 6.47 billion euros in other reserve assets.

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Australian Wages Rises 0.8% in Three Months to April, Commonwealth Bank Says

Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Wage Insights series showed wages increased 0.8% in the three months to April, with annual growth remaining steady at 3.1%, the bank said in a Monday report.The series is based on de-identified salary data from around 400,000 Commonwealth Bank accounts.The CommBank Labor Insights series shows employment growth remains stable, with an estimated 23,000 jobs added in April, the same as March.The lender's economist, Harry Ottley, said the effects of rising interest rates or the Middle East conflict were yet to flow through to its wages growth data and that wages growth typically lags labor market and economic conditions."The trend unemployment rate has held at 4.3% since July 2025," Ottley added.South Australia recorded the fastest pace of wage growth at 3.7%, responding to outperformance in the broader economy, with the unemployment rate the lowest in the country and economic growth the strongest. Western Australia maintained its equal highest wages growth ranking in April, with wages growth of 3.7%, decreasing slightly from March.Wage growth in the Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland came in at 3.5%, 3.2%, 3%, and 3.3%, respectively. Tasmania reported the slowest wage growth at 2.8%.

ASX 200

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Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Edges Higher in April

Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index stood at 123 in April, up from 122.9 in the previous month, remaining in optimistic territory, according to the latest Consumer Survey released by Bank Indonesia.Bank Indonesia said consumer confidence remained strong, supported mainly by improved perceptions of current economic conditions.The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to 116.5 from 115.4 in March, while the Consumer Expectations Index stood at 129.6, slightly lower than 130.4 in the previous month, the central bank said.

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New Zealand Food Supermarkets' Supplier Costs Rise in April With Further Increase Expected, Infometrics Says

Supplier costs for food supermarkets in New Zealand rose 2% on average in April from a year earlier, marking a continued slowdown in the pace of increases from recent months, Infometrics said in a Monday report.However, Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen cautioned that the slower readings "still largely pre-date rising costs stemming from conflict in the Middle East, with only some limited increases for produce showing through so far."The economic consultancy firm expects additional impact from the conflict to become evident in the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index over the next few months."Fuel costs are set to influence costs first, followed by wider pressures from plastics and packaging costs, with further operating cost rises, like for fertilizer, showing through over time," Olsen said.Supplier costs ticked higher across all departments in April compared with the previous year, including a continued rise in protein costs and a nearly 5% increase in average seafood supplier costs, alongside notable increases for broccoli, kumara, and capsicums, according to the report.

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Westpac Expects Slower Normalization to Strait of Hormuz Shipping Flows

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are now expected to reach around 10% to 15% of pre-conflict levels through June, with a return to normal flows unlikely to materialize until mid-2027, Westpac said in a market outlook report published May 8.That compares with a previous forecast published in March for flows to hit around 20% of pre-conflict levels in May and June before recovering to normal by the close of this year."Our assumption of a more sustained period of disruption to shipping through the Strait means it will take longer for smaller Gulf producers, including Kuwait, that have faced some production 'shut ins' due to storage capacity constraints, to return to normal," the bank said.Due to continued uncertainty over a resolution to the conflict, global monetary and fiscal arms are incorporating higher inflation, lower growth, and weaker labor markets into baseline forecasts. Central banks are navigating the crisis with extreme caution and finding it increasingly difficult to balance inflation and growth risks, according to the report.Westpac said it continues to expect two additional rate hikes from the Australian central bank this year, but with a slightly later timing in August and September.The bank also expects a rate hike in New Zealand in September as higher fuel prices will result in a sharp lift to consumer price index inflation over the coming months.

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International46d ago

Saudi's Annual Industrial Production Falls 14.1% in March

Saudi Arabia's industrial production index declined 14.1% year over year in March, following a revised 15% growth in February, the kingdom's General Authority for Statistics said Sunday.The increase was mainly driven by a decrease in mining and quarrying activity, as well as manufacturing activity. However the sub-index of water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities rose 1.1% during the reporting month.On a monthly basis, the index dropped 22.3%.

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International47d ago

USD/CAD Likely To Remain "Trapped" In a Range-bound Environment In Coming Months, RBC Says

USD/CAD is likely to remain "trapped" in a range-bound environment in the coming months, with the pair seen trading between 1.3500 and 1.3900, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest FX View note.RBC added its end-of-second-quarter forecast for USD/CAD stands at 1.3700.The bank said Friday's Canadian and U.S. employment reports point to both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates for now.Although, RBC noted, the Canadian employment series tends to be volatile, it said the latest print "pours some cold water on the possibility of a BoC rate hike in the short-term."Meanwhile, RBC said the "stabilizing" U.S. labour market further diminishes the risk of a near-term dovish Federal Reserve pivot, particularly as attention shifts to potential secondary-round inflation effects.RBC noted the outlook is also unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, "for which the path is uncertain.""As long as the USD is not experiencing a sustainable broad-based rally, this morning's Canadian data reinforce CAD's underperformance vs its commodity/higher yielding peers in the past month," the bank said.On technicals, RBC said last week's close below 1.3598 "reasserted the downtrend," suggesting that rallies are viewed as a selling opportunity. The bank noted USD/CAD was hovering around trendline resistance at 1.3674, with 1.3728 seen as the next resistance level. "If USD/CAD closes above the latter, then the risk is additional gains towards 1.3799 and 1.3856," RBC added.Support levels are seen at 1.3526 and 1.3482, according to the bank.

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International47d ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

A softer Canadian jobs report today saw the unemployment rate up to 6.9% and resulted in a rates rally and curve steepening, RBC Capital Markets said in its latest CAD Weekly Soundbites note. But, the bank added, when that report is combined with the US labor report, that beat forecasts, it wasn't enough to take USD/CAD out of its range-bound environment.Canadian data also reinforced the Canadian dollar's underperformance versus its G10 commodity and higher-yielding peers over the past month, RBC said.On the Canadian economy, RBC noted the April jobs report showed a 0.2 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, with weakness evident in goods sectors, trade and transport/warehousing, though private-paid employment and total hours worked were little changed in the month.Looking ahead, RBC said next week will not feature key Canadian data releases, although there will be a number of second-tier reports including housing market data, wholesale trade on Thursday and manufacturing sales on Friday. "The softening labour market YTD has not translated to the product market, where Q1 GDP is tracking above-potential including the March nowcast," it added.The bank added that investors will also watch inflation data in Norway, New Zealand inflation expectations, U.S. producer prices, second-quarter GDP revisions in the euro area, U.K. first-quarter GDP, U.S. retail sales, and Japanese producer prices. RBC also noted that the Bank of Japan and Riksbank will release minutes from their latest meetings, while Norges Bank's Financial Stability Report is due Tuesday.On rates, RBC said the Bank of Canada's expected hold last week was delivered, although "the balance of changes tilted hawkish." The bank noted GDP growth is tracking in the 1.5%-2% range in the first quarter, which would result in a lessening of excess slack in the economy if realized in the full expenditure breakdown. RBC added improved labour market outcomes are expected as part of slack reduction over the year. "We maintain our long-held view: base case is the BoC on hold in 2026, with hikes in 2027, but the chance of H2 hikes far exceeds the chance of a cut."Meanwhile, RBC noted Government of Canada bonds outperformed their U.S. Treasury counterparts following the weaker jobs report, with the Canada/U.S. 10-year spread tightening 5 basis points to at -89 basis points from last Friday.On technicals, RBC said after yields failed to close above the key double top at 3.62%, the move back below a trendline dating to late February, now at 3.54%, "eases some of the topside risks.""This opens 3.43% and 3.39% next on the downside," RBC added.

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International47d ago

USD's Weekly Coppock Curve "Still Nominally In An Uptrend" Vs CAD, "But It Is Peaking", says Rosenberg Research

Walter Murphy over at Rosenberg Research noted in a last comment in early April the U.S. dollar's weekly Coppock Curve was in a confirmed uptrend against the Canadian dollar and was on pace to remain constructive into the latter part of May. Five weeks on, the indicator is still nominally in an uptrend, but it is peaking, he said. More importantly, the greenback is currently a good deal below its early-April levels against the Canadian currency, "despite those seemingly favorable momentum conditions", he added.According to Murphy, April's promise was "overwhelmed" by the combination of the 2025-2026 resistance trendline and the lower reaches of C$1.402-C$1.417 chart resistance area. "Those two elements have clearly proven their mettle (again)," Murphy said.Murphy noted the greenback is currently in the middle of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support range, while the resistance line is now at C$1.385 and declining by C$0.001 per week. "At that rate, it will not challenge the upper portion of the support band until early July," Murphy said.The peaking Coppock indicator will likely enter a confirmed downtrend by the end of May, according to Murphy. However, he said, the resulting bearish bias may only continue for a relatively few weeks, "perhaps into late June or early July."Under those conditions, Murphy said there may not be enough time for the U.S. dollar to do much more than test the lower boundaries of the C$1.375-C$1.340 support area.He added the year-to-date lows in the C$1.353-C$1.348 range "would be expected to provide some intervening support."

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International47d ago

US Existing Homes Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate in April

The National Association of Realtors' measure of US existing-home sales is expected to accelerate to a 4.05 million annual rate in April, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, after falling by 3.6% to a 3.98 million rate in March.Existing-home sales were at a 4.02 million rate in April 2025, so the year-over-year change would be slightly positive.The data are scheduled to be released at 10:00 am ET Monday.The pending home sales index, also produced by the NAR, was up 1.5% in March but was 1.1% below its reading a year ago. That measure is taken at contract signing and is meant to foreshadow movements in existing homes closings a month or two out.Recent mortgage application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that mortgage rates fell early in April before rising at the end of the month.

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International47d ago

Job Reports Not Enough To Take USD-CAD Out Of Its Range Bound Environment, RBC says

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