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German Annual Wholesale Prices Up 4.9% in June

Germany's wholesale selling prices climbed 4.9% year over year in January, following a 5.9% jump a month ago, the country's Federal Statistical Office said Tuesday.On a monthly basis, wholesale prices were 0.7% lower, against the consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase.

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International30d ago

Japan's Industrial Production Falls 2.1% in May

Japan's industrial production fell 2.1% year over year in May, according to final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released on Tuesday.This marks the first contraction in six months following the 2% growth recorded in April. The latest print was worse than the Trading Economics forecast for a 1.7% decrease.On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, factory output edged up 0.1%, softer than the 0.5% growth in April and against the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase, tracked by Investing.com.

Nikkei 225

International30d ago

Renewed Middle East Tensions Create Upside Risks to New Zealand's Inflation Forecasts, RBNZ Chief Economist Says

While near-term inflation pressures in New Zealand appear to have eased, renewed tensions in the Middle East over the last week present upside risks to the central bank's 3.3% inflation forecast for the September quarter, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway said Tuesday.The conflict delivered another significant inflation shock to economies across the globe, and the challenge for monetary policy is to make sure that a temporary increase in petrochemical prices does not lead to persistent inflation, Conway said in a speech at a Business New Zealand event in Wellington.The RBNZ previously forecast inflation in New Zealand to be 4.2% in the June quarter and 4.3% in the current quarter, but reduced those estimates to 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively, in its latest monetary policy review.Research indicates that businesses in New Zealand pass on cost increases more readily now than in the past, and are less likely to cut prices when costs fall, which raises the risk of temporary shocks morphing into persistent inflation, Conway said.Larger firms tend to reprice more frequently, so their pricing decisions can offer an early signal on inflationary pressures, and understanding such price-setting behavior will be key as the RBNZ strives to bring inflation back to within its 1% to 3% target range over the medium term, the economist said."Taken together, these findings suggest that cost shocks may now pass through and become embedded in inflation more quickly than in the past," Conway said, adding that properly guided monetary policy can prevent this from happening.

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International30d ago

Market Chatter: Bank of Korea Widely Expected to Raise Rates to 2.75%

The Bank of Korea is projected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll of economists published on Tuesday.The move would mark the central bank's first interest rate hike in more than three years.Out of 37 economists surveyed by Reuters between July 7 and July 13, 36 forecast a rate increase this week.Driven by persistent inflation pressures that remain well above the central bank's 2% target, the majority of economists also expect policymakers to implement an additional rate hike before the end of 2026, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International30d ago

BRC: UK Retail Sales Gain 1.7% in June

Retail sales in the UK rose 1.7% year over year on a like-for-like basis in June, following a 3.4% jump in May, according to data from the British Retail Consortium published Tuesday.The reading, which missed the expected 2.6% increase for the month, corresponds to the slowest retail sales growth since February.BRC attributed the increase to the heatwave, with a rise in demand for clothing, electric fans, air-conditioning units, food, and drinks, adding that the hot weather was the main sales factor for the second consecutive month. The FIFA World Cup also bolstered sales during the month.

FTSE 100

International30d ago

Business Confidence in Australia Rises in June As Concerns Over Impact of Middle East Tensions Ease, NAB Says

Business confidence in Australia rose 9 points to negative 5 in June, driven by gains in retail and manufacturing, National Australia Bank said in a Tuesday report.Confidence remains 4 points below its February level and below the long run average of 5 index points, NAB said. It remains negative in all industries but improved across most industries, except for transport, utilities, and mining.Business conditions was unchanged at 3 index points, for a third consecutive month. In trend terms, business conditions declined from above-average levels in late 2025 to be slightly below average. Capacity utilization was steady at 82%."The picture that emerges is one of an economy that is slowing, but not as sharply as many had feared a few months ago," said Sally Auld, NAB chief economist.The survey suggests businesses are becoming less concerned, as the rise in fuel costs and disruption to activity from the Middle East conflict had a smaller impact on the Australian economy than feared.It also points to a lower-than-expected inflation impact from the conflict, with purchase cost growth well down from its March peak, final prices slowing, and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years, per the report.

ASX 200

International30d ago

Australia's Consumer Confidence Gains Slightly but Sentiment Still 'Deeply Pessimistic,' Says Westpac

Australia's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.1% to 83.9 in July from 80.6 in June, as consumers showed relief that worst-case scenarios such as higher energy prices had not played out, according to a Tuesday report by Westpac.Despite the gain, sentiment remains "deeply pessimistic," with the index still in the bottom 10% of results over the survey's 50-year history, as family finances remain under intense pressure and the outlook is uncertain, the report said.The family finances versus a year ago sub-index rose 5.6% to 71.1, while the family finances next 12 months sub-index posted an over 13% rebound to 96.5, reflecting reduced fears about the year ahead.The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell a further 5.8% to 162.6 in July, down 10% from May's peak, while the Unemployment Expectations Index dropped 7.1% to 129.9, reflecting growing optimism about the labour market outlook.The time to buy a dwelling index rose 5.3% to 85.4 in July, continuing a recovery from the extremely weak May reading of 72, per the report. Westpac said it expects inflation to remain "too high" in the June quarter update and anticipates a further 25-basis-point rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia in August.

ASX 200

International30d ago

South Korea's All-Industry Output Falls 0.3% in May

South Korea's all industry production index, which measures output across the mining, manufacturing, services and construction sectors, fell 0.3% in May from a month earlier, according to data released by Statistics Korea on Tuesday.The index compared with a 0.4% decline in April and stood at 117.7 points based on a 2020 benchmark of 100.Mining and manufacturing output fell 3%, sharper than the pace of drop in April, while the services index rose 1.3%, reversing the 1.9% fall the previous month. Construction output increased 3.8%, als rebounding from a 1.4% decline in April.On an annual basis, the all-industry production index rose 2.3%, softer than the 2.4% growth the previous month.Manufacturing output fell 0.9%, while services output increased 4.9%.

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International30d ago

New Zealand Business Confidence Recovers in June Quarter, NZIER Says

New Zealand recorded a recovery in business confidence in the June quarter, with a net 12% of firms forecasting better general economic conditions over the coming months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) said in a Tuesday report.The latest result is an improvement from the net 1% of firms that expected an improvement in the previous quarterly survey that was conducted shortly after the start of the Middle East conflict.An easing of fuel prices likely supported the improvement in confidence in the June quarter, but geopolitical conditions in the Middle East continue to be highly volatile, with tensions resurfacing and fuel prices rising in recent weeks, according to the report.Amid this uncertainty, a net 10% of firms reported cutting staff numbers in the June quarter, while a net 1% expect to reduce headcount in the next quarter."The renewed conflict between the US and Iran and heightened uncertainty over the upcoming general election in November will likely further weigh on firms' hiring and investment intentions over the coming months," NZIER said.It added that the June survey points to some continued pessimism in New Zealand's building sector. In contrast, retailers were more optimistic about the outlook and demand in the near-term, while sentiment in the manufacturing sector is neutral.

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International30d ago

Australian Consumer Confidence Rises With Improving Confidence in Economic, Financial Outlook

Australian consumer confidence rose 0.6 points to 75.3 points in the week of July 6 to 12, with improving confidence in economic and financial outlook over the next 12 months, according to a Tuesday note from ANZ.The four-week moving average rose 1.1 points to 74.7 points.Weekly inflation expectations were up 0.3 percentage points to 5.7%, following four consecutive weekly declines, while the four-week moving average fell to 5.6%.Inflation expectations have declined since April, reaching their lowest level on a four-week moving average basis since mid-March, ANZ economist Sophia Angala said.Current financial conditions over the last year rose 1.4 points to 65.3, and financial conditions over the next 12 months also rose 2 points to 84.6.Short-term economic confidence over the next 12 months was up 2.1 points to 69.3, while medium-term economic confidence for the next five years fell 1.9 points to 80.6.Meanwhile, the "time to buy a major household item" sub-index fell 1 point to 76.5, per the report.

ASX 200

International30d ago

Singapore's GDP Growth Slows to 5.7% in Q2: Advance Estimates

Singapore's economy expanded 5.7% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Tuesday.The latest pace of expansion was slower than the 6.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter, although it surpassed the consensus forecast for a 5.5% increase, tracked by Investing.com.On a quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy edged up 1.1% in Q2, following a 1.3% expansion in the previous three-month period. It was in line with Investing.com's forecast for a 1.1% increase.

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International30d ago

TSX Closer: The Index Falls as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil, Investors Eye Bank of Canada Decision

The Toronto Stock Exchange fell on Monday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a sharp jump in oil prices and expectations the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this week.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 52.59 points, or 0.15%, to 35,252.72, with the majority of sectors closing higher.Energy led gainers, up 3,17%, with Battery Metals Index, Health Care, Utilities, Telecom, Industrials, and Information and Technology, up 0.50%, 1.18%, 0.10%, 0.65%, 0.14%, and 0.08%, respectively. Base Metals was down 2.58%, while Financial was down 0.37%In commodities, gold fell to its lowest level this month on Monday amid heightened inflation worries following renewed fighting between Iran and the US over the weekend. The precious metal for August delivery was last seen down $105.10, or 2.6%, to $4,008.60 per ounce, the lowest since June 24. The US on the weekend struck sites in Iran, while Tehran targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US assets in neighboring countries.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged 9.2% on Monday to the highest in a month after the Middle East conflict escalated, fueling concerns about potential disruptions to global crude supplies. WTI crude oil closed up $6.73 to settle at $78.14 per barrel, the highest since June 15, while September Brent crude was last seen up $7.39, or 9.7%, to $83.40.In currencies, ING sees limited upside for Canadian Dollar and forecasts USD/CAD at 1.36 in one year. The Canadian dollar is unlikely to receive much support from interest rate differentials because Canadian yields don't offer a compelling advantage over US yields, according to ING Global Markets Research in a note Monday.ING said it sees limited scope for markets to meaningfully bring forward expectations for Bank of Canada tightening, with only around 17 basis points of hikes currently priced by year-end. The bank forecasts the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.41 in one month, at 1.39 in three months, at 1.37 in six months and at 1.36 in one year.Separately, Commerzbank said a "significant" appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar is unlikely to take place until there's a Federal Reserve repricing or progress in trade relations with the United States."Lower USD-CAD levels are unlikely to materialize until then," wrote Commerzbank Foreign Exchange Analyst Michael Pfister in the note on Monday. A renewed escalation in the Iran conflict could push oil prices higher and provide near-term support for the Canadian dollar, as Canada is a major oil exporter, noted Commerzbank.While economists broadly expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold this week, some see the next policy move shifting toward tightening as the economy regains momentum. The BoC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday for the sixth time in a row, acknowledging that inflation risks have eased as oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, according to economists.Policymakers are also likely to reiterate that there is little evidence higher energy prices have spilled over into broader inflation, while emphasizing that they remain prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge, said economists.UBS said in a note that it sees a hold decision at the BoC, keeping the policy rate at 2.25%. "We expect the signal to remain standing pat amidst ongoing uncertainty with the Governor likely to lean into the scenarios that could lead to hikes (broader inflation pressures and stronger growth) or cuts (ongoing economic weakness with narrowly driven headline price pressures)."Canada's economy is evolving broadly in line with expectations, with activity rebounding after an early-year soft patch, allowing Scotiabank Economics to predict the BoC will begin gradually hiking rates toward the end of 2026.April gross domestic product rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% on the month, while labor market conditions are improving sooner than expected, wrote the bank in a note Monday. Scotiabank maintains its 2026 growth forecast of 0.9%, with momentum building as rate cuts support demand and government spending picks up. Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2% next year.Meanwhile, attention also remained on Canada-US trade relations ahead of the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge later this month.The opening of the new Gordie Howe Bridge between Canada and the US is scheduled for July 27, following a weekend agreement that cleared unexpected concerns raised by President Donald Trump's administration over its launch, according to Scotiabank Economics.Although the resolution supports trade and cross-border activity, the dispute underscores lingering concerns over contract certainty, investment confidence and the durability of bilateral agreements with the United States, wrote Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, in a Monday note.In corporate news, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD) unveiled a new payment platform for Canadian small and medium-sized businesses. The bank said it is offering the Clover all-in-one platform in Canada to help clients accept payments, manage their business and build customer relationships through an integrated ecosystem.The solution, to be offered under the TD Merchants Solution banner, combines point-of-sale hardware, payment processing, e-commerce tools and business management software, a statement said.

S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$CAD$CXY$TD.TO

International31d ago

June US Overall Consumer Prices Expected to Fall by 0.1%, Core Prices Up 0.2%

The US Consumer Price Index is expected to fall by 0.1% in June after a 0.5% gain in May, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The year-over-year rate is forecast to slow to 3.8% from 4.2% as a result.The CPI data are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Tuesday.Gasoline prices were lower in June based on AAA data, suggesting a decline in gasoline prices in the CPI report. Food prices are expected to add slightly to CPI after a 0.2% gain in the previous month.The same survey looks for a 0.2% increase in core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, same as in the previous month. The year-over-year rate is expected to remain at 2.9%.Price inflation in the owners' equivalent rents and regular rents categories is forecast to subside, according to Scotiabank. Those two categories combine for nearly one-third of overall CPI and are a key focus for the Federal Reserve.New vehicle and used vehicles prices are expected to rebound after a 0.3% drop and 0.1% gain, respectively, in the previous month.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measures for June, the overall and core PCE price readings, are due to be released on July 30.

International31d ago

Federal Reserve Watch for July 13: Waller Concerned About Elevated Core Inflation

Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voter) said that he is watching core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, closely to determine the underlying path of price growth and to make monetary policy decisions.Waller's comments come one day before the release of June consumer inflation data that is expected to show a slowdown in overall prices due to a drop in gasoline prices but a further gain in core prices that would maintain the current year-over-year rate.Recent comments of note:(July 10) The Federal Reserve's semiannual policy report to Congress repeated comments from Fed officials that the FOMC will "deliver price stability," but markets will be more focused on Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first testimony as chair on July 14 and 15. Warsh's first day of testifying will coincide with the release of consumer price data for June.(July 9) New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that he expects energy prices to slow this year even as tensions in the Middle East have picked up but would not comment on how the FOMC could act at its next meeting at the end of the month.(July 8) Minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC minutes showed considerable divisions among the participants regarding the path of monetary policy, most hinging on evolution of inflation. Many participants expected the recent elevated inflation is due to temporary factors that will dissipate and could allow the FOMC to maintain or even lower the target range, which others suggested that inflation will remain elevated and require rate increases.(July 6) Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voter) said that forward guidance is useful in some cases, including as tool in place of actual rate actions, but requires flexibility when conditions evolve differently from was expected.

International31d ago

US Treasury June Budget Deficit Smaller Than Expected

The US Treasury posted a $120.31 billion budget deficit in June compared with the $128.3 billion deficit expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg after a $292.65 billion deficit a year ago.In June 2025, the Treasury posted a $27.01 billion surplus.Through the first nine months of the fiscal year, the deficit is $1.367 trillion, wider than a $1.337 trillion gap in the same period a year ago.

International31d ago

US June Treasury Budget Deficit $120.31 Billion Vs $128.3 Billion Deficit Expected, June 2025 $27.01 Billion Surplus

International31d ago

Federal Reserve Governor Waller Says Watching Elevated Core Inflation

While energy prices are the headline over the inflation picture, core inflation is a larger concern that may need to be addressed if it remains elevated, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday at the New York Association for Business Economics.Waller made his remarks one day before the release of June consumer price data that are expected to show a decline in headline inflation due to falling energy prices, but a further increase in core inflation outside of energy and food prices."Conventional wisdom among central bankers is to look through one-time price increases, such as those associated with higher tariffs and a jump in oil prices," Waller said. "But, at this point, I am concerned about the elevated pace of core inflation this year, which has steadily moved up -- as measured by the 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rate -- from 3% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May."Waller said that core inflation remains at a turning point, where further upward movements are possible, but so is a slowdown back toward the 2% goal, with the path of monetary policy depending on it."Because core inflation is a good guide to future inflation, I am concerned that, if this upward trend continues, it will be hard to push inflation back toward the Committee's 2% goal with monetary policy at its current setting," Waller said. "As I said in a May 22 speech, I am cognizant of the mistake we made in 2021 by not responding sooner to the high inflation we observed, and I am determined to avoid repeating it."Waller said that he will need to see many months of lower inflation readings to convince him that the trend is moving in the right direction, which he said is "a reasonable outcome" that would allow the FOMC to maintain the current policy rate."But I don't take the inflationary signals I have discussed today lightly," he said. "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term."At the same time, the FOMC needs to carefully act to address underlying inflation while balancing it with damage to the economy by acting too aggressively."I am committed to returning inflation to the FOMC's 2 percent goal but also determined to avoid overtightening policy and risking a recession," he said. "Tomorrow's inflation data will be one of several data releases I'll be looking at to determine the appropriate path of policy."Waller said was not concerned about the slowdown in hiring in the June employment data, noting that the monthly average payrolls gain in recent months was well above the 2025 average and indicative of strong labor demand."In sum, I believe employment is close to its maximum sustainable level, neither a source of concern for the strength of the six-year economic expansion nor a source of inflationary pressure," Waller said. "Unless I see evidence of a significantly weakening labor market, my focus will be on inflation."Likewise, consumer demand is likely to remain strong, supporting economic growth, he said."I expect solid consumer spending growth to continue, helped by energy prices that have recently fallen from their April highs," he said. "And, despite some concerns on Wall Street about whether AI demand will continue its fast growth, I expect that AI-related investment will continue at a strong pace in the near term and most likely next year as well."

International31d ago

Fed Governor Waller Says Concerned About 'Elevated Pace' of Core Inflation

International31d ago

German Current Account Surplus Falls in May

Germany's current account surplus totaled 10.4 billion euros in May, down by 6.2 billion euros from the previous month, the Deutsche Bundesbank said Monday.The German central bank attributed the movement to a slight increase in trade surplus in goods, alongside a swing to deficit from surplus in so-called invisible current account transactions.

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International31d ago

India's Goods, Services Imports Rise Around 27% in June

India's total imports of goods and services increased 26.9% year over year to an estimated $88.8 billion in June, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday.Of the total, merchandise imports rose to $70.8 billion in June from $54.1 billion a year earlier, while services imports increased to $17.9 billion from $15.9 billion.Total exports in the reporting month rose 9.5% year on year to an estimated $73.5 billion, resulting in an increase in trade deficit to $15.3 billion from $2.9 billion.

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International30d ago

TSX Closer: The Index Falls as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil, Investors Eye Bank of Canada Decision

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