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Manufacturing, Wholesale Sales Improved Canada's Data Flow for February, said BMO

The February Canadian data flow just got a whole lot better on the back of manufacturing and wholesale sales data, said Bank of Montreal (BMO) after the release Wednesday of both.Manufacturing volumes jumped 3.4% in the month, although that just reverses a chunk of the 4.2% month-over-month decline seen in January with a big swing in autos, noted the bank.Wholesale volumes rose 1.1% month over month, also reversing most of the prior-month decline, pointed out BMO.BMO said retail numbers are still outstanding, but added this sets up February for growth of around 0.2%, or consistent with Statistics Canada's initial flash estimate ("work hours were down, but StatsCan also noted strength in mining in the month, which can be a wildcard)".A "sturdy" print would leave growth for all of Q1 tracking around 1.5%, with the Bank of Canada's 1.8% call well within reach, according to BMO.

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Treasury68d ago

Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries stabilized in the late New York session, edged higher in Asia. German two-year Schatz gapped higher. Equities were up, led by the Nikkei, on hopes of an Iran war ceasefire extension. The euro (EUR) was stable around $1.181. Brent was above US$96/barrel.Fed: Beige Book showed most districts saw slight to modest growth and moderate price increases. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee says the Fed faces "a little bit of danger" on two fronts, the oil price rise and the tariff impact. St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem says rates are likely on hold for some time.Iran war: The U.S. is seeking a "grand bargain" with Iran, offering sanctions relief and support for civilian nuclear or energy program in exchange for Iran ending uranium enrichment and cutting support for militant groups (Telegraph). Iran mulls allowing free passage through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters).Israel: Ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah expected within the week, given U.S. pressure (FT).==EUROPE:ECB: European Central Bank officials are leaning towards holding rates steady at the April meeting (Bloomberg sources). Governing Council (GC) member Isabel Schnabel says the ECB can afford to take time to analyze the Iran war shock; Schnabel doesn't want to impose an unnecessary cost on the economy. GC member Francois Villeroy de Galhau says focus on April would be premature, ECB should avoid knee-jerk adjustments to policy. Madis Muller says the ECB may not have all the data to determine if rates need to be raised this month. GC member Joachim Nagel says the April move hinges on the Strait of Hormuz situation; he won't exclude anything for April.BoE: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey says he is in no rush to raise rates.==ASIA:China: Gross domestic product growth increased to 5.0% year over year in Q1, higher than the 4.8% consensus.

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Treasury68d ago

CREA Lowers Its Canada Home Sales Growth Forecast Amid "Tepid" Economic Start To Year, Higher Chance of Rate Hike in 2026

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Thursday said it cut its home sales growth forecasts for this year amid a "tepid" start to the year for the economy and higher odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year to tame inflation resulting from the oil price spike.Some 474,972 residential properties are forecast to be sold in 2026, representing an increase of 1% over 2025, wrote CREA in a statement. This is lower than the 5.1% increase forecast that it released in January.The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5% on an annual basis to $688,955 this year, which is less than the 2.8% growth CREA saw in January.In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb a further 2.1% to 485,071 units. That said, this number could be revised above the 500,000 mark should higher interest rates prove unnecessary to fight inflation, added CREA. In January, it estimated a 2027 rise of 3.5%.In a separate note on Thursday, CREA said Canadian home sales activity was little changed in March.In summary: National home sales were almost unchanged, down 0.1% month over month; Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 2.3% below March 2025.The number of newly listed properties edged down by 0.2% month over month; The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell 0.4% month over month and was down 4.7% on a year-over-year basis; The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 0.8% on a year-over-year basis in March 2026.There were 167,524 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of March, up just 1% from a year earlier and 10.6% below the long-term average for that time of the year. Overall supply has generally been declining since May of last year, pointed out CREA.There were five months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March, unchanged from January and February and right in line with the long-term average for the measure. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller's market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer's market would be above 6.4 months.The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $673,084 in March, dipping 0.8% from the same month last year.

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Treasury68d ago

SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:-- Stocks scale new highs in the United States and Asia, Brent above US$96/barrel.-- President Trump said the Iran war was very close to over; European Central Bank's Schnabel said there was no need to rush to raise rates, it can afford to take its time. Pricing for the April meeting dropped to 3bps; Bank of England's Bailey said the UK won't rush to judgments because there are a lot of uncertainties; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is confident Kevin Warsh will be Federal Reserve chair on time.-- China Q1 gross domestic product accelerated to 5.0% year over year from 4.5% in Q4, above forecast. March retail sales +1.7% year over year and FAI year-to-date (YTD) at 1.7% year over year underwhelmed, while industrial production (IP) came in +5.7% versus 5.3% forecast. Property investment YTD -11.2% year over year. USD/CNY steady at 6.8190.-- United Kingdom February GDP growth 0.5% month over month, 0.5% three-month over/three-month, above forecast. BoE forecast 0.1% to 0.2% for Q1. Services 0.5%, manufacturing -0.1%, construction 1.0%. Trade deficit widens to 18.8 billion pounds, exports -1.5%, imports +3.2%.Australia March employment +17,900, full-time 52,500, unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. AUD/USD +0.3% at 0.7195.Day ahead: U.S. weekly jobless claims, IP, Philly Fed business outlook. Eurozone final consumer price index. ECB accounts of the March meeting. Federal Reserve speakers Miran, Williams. ECB's Kazaks, Schnabel, Rehn, Lane, Kocher, Radev, Villeroy, Nagel, Lane. BoE's Taylor. Reserve Bank of Australia's Hunter.Nikkei +2.2%, EUR 10-year IRS -2bps at 3.05%, Brent crude flat at US$94.9/barrel, Gold +0.3% at $4,816/oz.

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Treasury68d ago

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Steady at 4.28% Pre-Bell; 2-Yr Rate Slips 1.3 Basis Points to 3.75%

Treasury68d ago

US Treasury Yields Mixed Pre-Bell as Investors Await Jobless Claims, Industrial Production Amid Hopes for Iran Deal

Treasury69d ago

Tiny Extends Convertible-Debenture Issuer Bid Deadline to June 15

Tiny (TINY.TO) after trade Wednesday said it extended the deadline for its offer to buy back its 11.00% secured convertible debentures due May 12, 2030.The issuer bid, launched on Feb. 5, will now remain open until 5:00 p.m. Toronto time on June 15, unless the company decides to extend, change, or withdraw it again. All other terms of the offer remain unchanged, it said."The company is further extending the offer to continue to evaluate various options, achieve an optimal outcome for its stakeholders, and meet the objectives set out by the board of directors of Tiny. The company will continue to provide updates as necessary, and during future quarterly financial results communications," Tiny said.

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Treasury69d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Wednesday vs 3:00 Tuesday2yr 100-06 vs 100-07; 3.763% vs 3.751%5yr 99-28 vs 100-00; 3.894% vs 3.871%10yr 98-24 vs 98-30; 4.278% vs 4.256%30yr 97-25 vs 98-04; 4.889% vs 4.867%2/10 51.394 bps vs 50.525 bps5/30 99.231 bps vs 99.445 bps

Treasury69d ago

Morgan Stanley Still Sees Bank of Canada's First Rate Hike in Q1 2027

The Bank of Canada delivered a dovish hold at its March policy meeting, said Morgan Stanley.The January Monetary Policy Report laid out a range of scenarios for the CUSMA trade deal renegotiation, framing it as the key risk for the Canadian economy going forward.The February jobs report was decidedly weak -- the Canadian economy lost 84,000 jobs and the unemployment rose by 25 bps to 6.71%.Morgan Stanley stated it continues to expect the BoC to remain on hold this year and hike rates in Q1 2027. Considerable weakness in the labor market and consumption, persistence of the oil shock and downside risks from the CUSMA review have lowered the bar for cuts at the upcoming policy meetings.

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Treasury69d ago

Canada Preserves Fiscal Edge Despite Move to Protect Economy, Says National Bank

The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) arrives in a period when a rapidly changing geopolitical backdrop makes economic and fiscal projecting, already difficult in the most 'normal' of times, even more challenging, said National Bank of Canada.Dubbed 'Global Economy in the Shadow of War', the April 2026 WEO released on Tuesday concedes this uncertainty with the presentation of a scenario-based forecast that hinges on developments in the Middle East.In the base case outlook, however, global growth is only on a modestly lower path compared with prior guidance, noted the bank.While Canada's growth outlook is largely unchanged, governments have moved to protect/defend a trade-sensitive economy, stated National Bank.That extra budgetary red ink is captured in this latest IMF forecast, pointed out the bank. Net borrowing is seen as more substantive yet again, which is directionally inconsistent with other G7 countries, which saw improvements relative to the October 2025 IMF report.That's not to say Canada doesn't remain in a favorable fiscal standing, added National Bank. The budget deficit, while loftier following the pandemic, remains contained relative to other jurisdictions, particularly the United States, which isn't expected to see the same level of consolidation in the years to come.Meantime, Canada's "serious" net debt edge, brought on by plentiful financial assets at the government/public pension level, is only set to build from here, according to the bank.

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Treasury69d ago

More Businesses Have Been Closing Than Opening in Canada, Says CFIB

More businesses in Canada have closed than opened for six consecutive quarters and more than half (55%) of small business owners say they wouldn't recommend starting a business right now, according to new research by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).Canada has been in an entrepreneurial "drought"; a sustained period when business exits consistently outpace new business starts, since early 2024, CFIB said in a report published on Wednesday.With high costs, red tape and labor challenges discouraging the next generation of entrepreneurs, reversing Canada's entrepreneurial drought must be treated as a national economic priority, added CFIB."We cannot afford to regulate ambition out of our economy," said Brianna Solberg, CFIB's director for the Prairies and the North said. "When more than half of current small business owners are telling you they wouldn't recommend starting a business, it's time to listen."

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Treasury69d ago

Prince Edward Island's Deep Deficits May End A Decade of Balanced Provincial Budgets, Says BMO

The province of Prince Edward Island (P.E.I.) is projecting a $410 million budget deficit for FY26/27, following a much larger-than-expected shortfall of $450 million now expected for FY25/26, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The bank recalled the original budget plan had estimated a $184 million deficit, but somewhat softer revenues and sharply higher spending have dragged the province deeper into the red.At roughly 3.5% of gross domestic product, the FY26/27 shortfall is on track to be the largest in Canada this year, BMO said.Deficits persist in future years, narrowing modestly to $338 million by FY28/29.The deep deficits will put upward pressure on net debt this year, which is pegged at $4.5 billion, or just over 38% of GDP. Persistent deficits will push that ratio to 40% by FY28/29, toward the high end of the provincial spectrum, BMO pointed out.Long-term borrowing is estimated at $900 million for FY26/27, down very slightly from the prior fiscal year.This is a much deeper run of deficits for P.E.I., potentially closing the book on a decade of effectively balanced budgets, according to the bank.

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Treasury69d ago

"It Could Be Time For a Positive Re-rating on Canada," says Rosenberg Research After Liberals Secure a Majority

"It could be time for a positive re-rating on Canada," said Rosenberg Research on Wednesday, but it wants to see first what happens to the economy under Canada's Liberal Party as "we've been disappointed before" in that party's fiscal policies.Rosenberg Research added it is praying the Liberals, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, will pursue pro-business policies now that it holds a majority of seats in parliament.The research noted Canada has just gone through a "subtle but potentially tectonic political shift" after the Liberals on Monday swept by-elections in three ridings in Canada, which, when combined with five recent floor-crossers from the Conservatives and the NDP, has added enough seats to secure it a formal parliamentary majority.It's more than just how it becomes far easier to pass legislation, according to the research, in noting the Liberals will now control a majority of seats on every House of Commons committee, and "that is extremely important" because the recent era of opposition parties being in a position to outvote the government and therefore amend bills, launch investigations and delay legislation is "now thankfully over."This now gives Prime Minister Mark Carney's government the capacity to start pushing some of its positive economic policy planks, related to natural resource development and pipeline expansion, into faster motion, said the research, adding the critical question is which Carney is going to show up. "Will he pursue pro-business policies, or flank left?", the research asked."Let's pray for the former," it said, before adding. "The fact that he doesn't have to kowtow to special interest groups or left-leaning parties any longer only has upside."In essence, the research said, a majority bestows upon Carney the "luxury" of more quickly pushing through bills on energy deregulation and permitting reform, breaking down barriers between provinces, improving defense procurement, promoting international trade, building infrastructure and enacting other pro-growth priorities.Also, on the plus side for the long-term growth outlook, the research said, a majority empowers the Liberals to avoid the need for side deals with the smaller left-wing parties: the Green Party, the NDP, or the Bloc Quebecois. This was a feature of the minority governments under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from 2019 to 2024 and exerted political pressure for higher fiscal deficits and policies that thwarted economic growth, it added.Jot something down

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Treasury69d ago

Prince Edward Island's Fiscal Outlook Deteriorates in Affordability Budget, Says Scotiabank

Weaker revenue and higher spending have led Prince Edward Island to anticipate larger deficits and a faster increase in debt than previously projected, despite some efforts to find fiscal savings and target new affordability measures, said Scotiabank.The decline in the deficit in future years will depend in large part on the achievement of the planned $200 million annual savings through a spending review at the Canadian province, as well as the planned slowdown in health spending growth, noted the bank.The FY26 deficit is estimated to be $450 million, or 4% of nominal gross domestic product, up from $367 million, or 3.2% of NGDP, in the mid-year update, and is projected to decline from $410 million (3.5%) in FY27 to $338 million (2.6%) by FY29.Real GDP growth is assumed to grow 2% this year and in 2027, down from an estimated 2.4% in 2025.The higher deficits for longer will further drive up the province's net debt over the outlook, pointed out Scotiabank. Net debt is projected to rise from $3.77 billion, or 33.2% of GDP, in FY26 to $4.50 billion (38.1%) in FY27 and $4.89 billion (39.8%) in FY28, before reaching $5.13 billion (39.9%) in FY29.The province's cash requirements remain elevated amid the large deficits and capital program, added the bank. For FY27, total cash needs are estimated at $918.4 million, down from $1.05 billion in FY26, driven by the consolidated deficit ($410 million), $486.5 million in capital asset acquisitions, and $105.1 million in net borrowing on behalf of Crown corporations, which is partially offset by $166.2 million in amortization.These borrowing requirements are planned to be met through $900 million in long-term borrowing and $18.4 million in short-term borrowing and working capital.

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Treasury69d ago

Canada's Manufacturing Sales Rise as Expected in February; Unfilled Orders Reach Record High on Aerospace Products, Parts

Total manufacturing sales rose 3.6% month over month to $71.2 billion in February, following a 3.1% month-over-month decline in January, said Statistics Canada on Wednesday.February's gain was roughly in line with a 3.8% month-over-month consensus increase provided by MUFG.Sales rose in 12 of the 21 subsectors, led by the transportation equipment (+18.8% month over month), machinery (+7.7%) and primary metal (+4.9%) subsectors, noted Canada's statistical agency. Those increases were partially offset by a 3.2% month-over-month decline in sales of chemical products.On a year-over year basis, total manufacturing sales were down 1.7% in February.In constant dollars, total manufacturing sales rose 3.4% month over month in February, while the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPPI) increased 0.4%.Total inventories rose 0.6% month over month to $121.9 billion in February, driven by higher inventories of finished products (+1.4%) and goods in process (+1.0%), added StatsCan. Raw material inventories declined 0.3% during the same period.The inventory-to-sales ratio declined from 1.76 in January to 1.71 in February. This ratio measures the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level.Unfilled orders reached a record high, rising 2.3% month over month to $117.6 billion in February, driven primarily by higher unfilled orders for aerospace products and parts (+4.2% month over month), according to the Ottawa-based agency.

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Treasury69d ago

Wholesale Sales Rose In February, says Statistics Canada

Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 2.0% to $86.8 billion in February, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.StatsCan said sales increased in five of the seven subsectors, representing 85.4% of total wholesale sales. It added the largest increases came from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (+6.1% to $14.4 billion) and the food, beverage and tobacco subsector (+2.9% to $16.5 billion).Wholesale sales were 1.2% higher in February compared with the same month one year earlier.In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 1.1% in February.Among other headlines, Ontario and Quebec led provincial wholesale sales gains, while there was a decline in wholesale inventories.

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Treasury69d ago

Brief: Canada's February Manufacturing Inventories Add 0.6% M/M; Unfilled Orders Reach Record High, Up 2.3% M/M

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Treasury69d ago

Wholesale Sales (Excluding Petroleum, Petroleum Products, and Other Hydrocarbons and Excluding Oilseed and Grain) Rose 2.0% in February, says Statistics Canada

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Treasury69d ago

Brief: Canada's Manufacturing Sales Rise 3.6% M/M in February; MUFG Says Consensus Saw 3.8% M/M Gain

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Treasury69d ago

Canada's Fuel Tax Suspension to Offer Minimal, Temporary Effect on CPI, Says Scotiabank

The Canadian government on Tuesday announced to expect a spring fiscal update on April 28 and a gasoline tax cut decision that offers minimal effects, said Scotiabank.The fuel cut will knock about 0.1% off the month-over-month April consumer price index when prorated and probably another 0.1 off May when the full month is affected, noted the bank.Then the cut shakes out from June until September, after which its reversal would add back around two-tenths to October CPI, stated Scotiabank.Key are whether it's just a cut for the Summer driving season, whether margins across refiners and retailers crowd in the space, and whether it gets passed on or absorbed in the profit margins of businesses that use a lot of fuel, pointed out the bank.The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures of inflation-trimmed mean and weighted median CPI exclude the direct effects of changes in taxes and the indirect effects are likely to be "very small," according to Scotiabank.

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Treasury69d ago

"It Could Be Time For a Positive Re-rating on Canada," says Rosenberg Research After Liberals Secure a Majority

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