FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Bank of Canada Seen Hiking Rates In March 2027, Earlier Than Previously Seen, By Participants In Its Own Survey

By

The Bank of Canada is seen increasing its policy rate in March 2027, according to findings in its own Q1 Market Participants Survey (MPS) released Monday.

The MPS showed that a median of 28 financial participants expect the policy rate to rise by 25bps to 2.50% in March 2027. The Q4 2025 MPS had predicted a 25bps rate hike in Q2 2027.

Among other findings, a median of market participants forecast the consumer price index to be 2.6% at the end of the year and 2.1% at the end of 2027. The Q4 2025 MPS had projected CPI at 2.1% at the end of this year, as well as 12 months later.

The Q1 MPS also showed the median response saw gross domestic product growth at 1.6% this year and at 1.9% in 2027. Both are unchanged from the previous survey.

The survey was conducted from March 25 to April 1.

Related Articles

Treasury

SocGen's EU Governments Weekly Bond Positioning Report

The weekly analysis of flows into eurozone government bonds shows that, for the week ending last Friday, investors were net buyers of Germany's Bunds, France's OATs and Spain's SPGBs, and net sellers of Italy's BTPs, said Societe Generale.Bunds saw net buying over the week, continuing the trend of the previous 11 weeks and driven by both domestic and non-domestic investors. Domestic investors were net buyers, extending a 15-week buying streak, with activity concentrated in the 5-10y sector, where banks and asset managers were the most active participants. Non-domestic investors were also net buyers for the 12th consecutive week, primarily in the 5-10y and 10-20y sectors, led by asset managers and banks.OATs experienced net buying, continuing the buying trend observed over the previous three weeks and driven primarily by both domestic and non-domestic investors. Domestic investors were net buyers for the 16th consecutive week, with activity concentrated in the 20y+ and 10-20y segments, led mainly by asset managers. Meanwhile, non-domestic investors continued to be net buyers for the second consecutive week, driven by hedge funds and asset managers, with activity focused mainly in the 20y+ maturity.BTPs saw net selling, reversing the buying trend, driven by domestic investors. Domestic investors were net sellers, reversing the buying trend of the previous nine weeks, with activity concentrated mainly in the 20y+ segment and led by banks. Non-domestic investors continued to be net buyers, driven primarily by asset managers and hedge funds in the 20y+ and 2-5y segments.SPGBs saw net buying, extending the buying trend of the previous four weeks, driven by non-domestic investors. Domestic investors were net sellers after being buyers for the previous two weeks, with activity concentrated in the 5-10y and 10-20y sectors and driven primarily by asset managers. Non-domestic investors remained net buyers for the fifth consecutive week, with activity focused mainly in the 5-10y and 10-20y segments and driven largely by asset managers.

$$CXY
Treasury

Most Canadians Now Say Economic Growth Is Top Focus for Energy Policy, Survey Finds

Three-in-five, or 61%, of Canadians say growing the economy should be the bigger focus for energy policy than stewarding the environment, which is supported by 39%, a survey from Angus Reid Institute released on Monday found.Since 2019, there has been a major shift in priorities for Canadians when it comes to energy policy, notes Angus Reid.At that time, more 55% believed protecting the environment should be a bigger focus than economic growth, which stood 45%, it added.

$$CXY
Treasury

Travel + Leisure Launches $900 Million Senior Notes Offering

Travel + Leisure (TNL) said Monday it has launched a private offering of $900 million of senior secured notes due 2031.The company said it plans to use the net proceeds to redeem its 6.625% secured notes due July 2026, repay debt and for general corporate purposes.Price: $64.23, Change: $-1.55, Percent Change: -2.36%

$TNL