CIBC Says "Weak" Labor Market in April Strengthens View Central Bank to Stay on Hold With Rates for Rest of Year

-- The Canadian labor market continued its "weak start" to 2026 in April, with a third decline in employment within the first four months of the year, seeing the unemployment rate rise further, said CIBC after Friday's Labour Force Survey (LFS).

The 18,000 decline in jobs came against consensus expectations for a 10,000 increase and, combined with a slight uptick in participation, resulted in a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, noted the bank.

The unemployment rate increased most for young people aged 15-24, but also continued to drift higher for core-aged (25-54) workers. By sector, information, culture & recreation saw the largest decline in employment on the month, and by class of worker, the reduction was driven wholly by full-time, or 47,000 lower, and by public sector paid employment, down 10,000.

Wage growth for permanent employees decelerated to 4.8% year over year, from 5.1% in the prior month, but remained higher than its 2025 average, pointed out CIBC.

Statistics Canada noted that higher wage inflation so far this year has largely been due to compositional factors, such as a smaller proportion of workers with shorter job tenures.

For the Bank of Canada, evidence that slack within the labor market is, if anything, increasing rather than reducing, should limit the ability for the oil price shock to spread into wider inflationary pressure, stated CIBC.

The bank continues to see the BoC holding interest rates at their current level throughout 2026.

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Ticks Up; Heads for Weekly Loss

Crude futures rose Friday on renewed Middle East doubts, though both benchmarks remain on track for weekly losses as diplomatic uncertainty continues to weigh on the market.The Brent futures contract gained 0.2% to $100.30 per barrel. Murban futures gained 1.2% to $97.92 per barrel. For the week, both contracts are still headed for weekly losses."Crude oil prices suffered a rollercoaster rise as doubts emerged over US-Iran peace negotiations," ANZ analysts said.Despite earlier optimism, reports of explosions near Bandar Abbas and renewed friction over Strait of Hormuz naval escorts pushed prices higher, overriding the impact of tightening US inventories, analysts noted.On the supply side, fundamental data confirms that the prolonged obstruction of the Strait is severely taxing global reserves.US Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday showed a 2.3-million-barrel drawdown in domestic crude stockpiles."Demand for US crude remains strong, with exports sitting at 4.75mb/d," ANZ noted.This depletion is largely a result of American refineries utilizing domestic oil to compensate for international shortages, market experts said.

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally After US, Iran Trade Blows, UAE Struck Again

European natural gas futures were up on Friday, after the US and Iran launched attacks against one another, acts which ran counter to this week's optimism that the sides were making progress towards peace, while Iran also attacked the UAE.Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose 1.91% to 44.39 euros ($52.13) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP contracts gained 2.05% to 109.06 British pence ($1.48) per therm. The Dutch TTF and UK Gas were set to end the week down by 3.21% and 3.25%, respectively, according to data from TradingEconomics.On Thursday, US Centcom said that it had intercepted "multiple missiles, drones and small boats" launched by the Iranian side, while US forces responded in self defense, as the Navy's guided missile destroyers transited through the Strait of Hormuz.Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, has said that the country's attacks were "retaliatory" and were in response to US forces violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker, according to a report by state news agency Tasnim News.On Friday, the UAE's Ministry of Defense confirmed that the country's air defenses had engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones earlier in the day, resulting in some injuries.This marked a major escalation in hostilities in the region, following several weeks of ceasefire, during which both sides had attempted to work out a deal.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows before the conflict, remained effectively closed for the 10th week running, with just 7 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, highlighted the growing disconnect in the markets while speaking to the Washington Report on Thursday. He argued that the system was "structurally impaired, with diminished redundancy and resilience," which the market was yet to price.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, worsening shortages in Europe have prompted countries in the region to once again seek out more Russian gas, despite imposing steeper sanctions against Moscow earlier this year."The EU imported more Russian Arctic LNG in the first four months of 2026 than in any equivalent period since the Yamal LNG project began exporting in 2017," Hynes said.This comes as the region steps into gas refilling season with depleted inventory levels at 34.26% of capacity, compared to 41.58% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

CIBC Says "Weak" Labor Market in April Strengthens View Central Bank to Stay on Hold With Rates for Rest of Year

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Oil & Energy5m ago
EMEA Oil Update: Crude Ticks Up; Heads for Weekly Loss
Crude futures rose Friday on renewed Middle East doubts, though both benchmarks remain on track for weekly losses as diplomatic uncertainty continues to weigh on the market.The Brent futures contract gained 0.2% to $100.30 per barrel. Murban futures gained 1.2% to $97.92 per barrel. For the week, both contracts are still headed for weekly losses."Crude oil prices suffered a rollercoaster rise as doubts emerged over US-Iran peace negotiations," ANZ analysts said.Despite earlier optimism, reports of explosions near Bandar Abbas and renewed friction over Strait of Hormuz naval escorts pushed prices higher, overriding the impact of tightening US inventories, analysts noted.On the supply side, fundamental data confirms that the prolonged obstruction of the Strait is severely taxing global reserves.US Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday showed a 2.3-million-barrel drawdown in domestic crude stockpiles."Demand for US crude remains strong, with exports sitting at 4.75mb/d," ANZ noted.This depletion is largely a result of American refineries utilizing domestic oil to compensate for international shortages, market experts said.

Oil & Energy8m ago
EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rally After US, Iran Trade Blows, UAE Struck Again
European natural gas futures were up on Friday, after the US and Iran launched attacks against one another, acts which ran counter to this week's optimism that the sides were making progress towards peace, while Iran also attacked the UAE.Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose 1.91% to 44.39 euros ($52.13) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP contracts gained 2.05% to 109.06 British pence ($1.48) per therm. The Dutch TTF and UK Gas were set to end the week down by 3.21% and 3.25%, respectively, according to data from TradingEconomics.On Thursday, US Centcom said that it had intercepted "multiple missiles, drones and small boats" launched by the Iranian side, while US forces responded in self defense, as the Navy's guided missile destroyers transited through the Strait of Hormuz.Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, has said that the country's attacks were "retaliatory" and were in response to US forces violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker, according to a report by state news agency Tasnim News.On Friday, the UAE's Ministry of Defense confirmed that the country's air defenses had engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones earlier in the day, resulting in some injuries.This marked a major escalation in hostilities in the region, following several weeks of ceasefire, during which both sides had attempted to work out a deal.Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows before the conflict, remained effectively closed for the 10th week running, with just 7 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, highlighted the growing disconnect in the markets while speaking to the Washington Report on Thursday. He argued that the system was "structurally impaired, with diminished redundancy and resilience," which the market was yet to price.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, worsening shortages in Europe have prompted countries in the region to once again seek out more Russian gas, despite imposing steeper sanctions against Moscow earlier this year."The EU imported more Russian Arctic LNG in the first four months of 2026 than in any equivalent period since the Yamal LNG project began exporting in 2017," Hynes said.This comes as the region steps into gas refilling season with depleted inventory levels at 34.26% of capacity, compared to 41.58% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.