Commodities
OPEC to Stay Course on Output Hikes as UAE Exit to Make Little Near-Term Impact, Analysts Say
Seven Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries-and-Allies members are widely expected to stick to the group's strategy of incremental output adjustments when they meet on Sunday, with UAE's departure unlikely to have any immediate impact on their production policy or decision-making, sector analysts told.The seven OPEC+ countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, that previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, are expected to raise the collective quota by 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day in July, as per projections shared by four analysts, while another analyst expected a raise between 300,000 to 350,000 bbl/d."Yes, OPEC will almost certainly continue the output increases. The first meeting after UAE exit had already set the template, as they went for a [188,000 bbl/d] increment, essentially adjusting for UAE's exit, but not addressing it upfront," said Suvro Sarkar, Head of Energy Research at DBS, in an email to. "We can expect similar increment this time as well.""Given oil is trending close to $100/bbl, there's no pressure as such on OPEC to pause," he said. "The increases are mainly on paper at this stage and the unwinding suits Saudi's strategy of defending market share while prices remain elevated from the war premium."After hitting a pause on production hikes for Q1, the OPEC+ members decided to implement an upward production adjustment of 188,000 bbl/d for June, 206,000 bbl/d in May, and 206,000 bbl/d in April in their three previous monthly meetings.The members can be done with the unwinding process by Q3, depending on market conditions, having already rolled back their 2.2 mmbbl/d of voluntary cuts, with about 570,000 bbl/d remaining to be reversed from their 1.6 mmbbl/d voluntary adjustments, said Amena Bakr, head of Middle East & OPEC+ at Kpler, in an interview with.Analysts agreed that the increase in output will only be on paper and any decision by the OPEC+ members is likely to be insignificant in the immediate term due to the ongoing energy supply crisis and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz."In my opinion OPEC will continue to raise its production subject to its spare production capacity aiming to raise its market share and also depress excessive crude oil prices.... However, any current hike in its production is futile until the Strait of Hormuz reopens," international oil economist Mamdouh G. Salameh said.According to Salameh, UAE's exit from the group could lend OPEC+ greater flexibility in production targets, with the possibility of the alliance agreeing to redistribute the former's production quota of 3.5 million b/d among its members."The withdrawal of UAE from OPEC will reduce tension inside the organization over future production quotas as UAE's share will be added to other OPEC members with the capacity to produce more. Naturally OPEC members will have greater flexibility in production targets," Salameh added.According to Bakr, there was a possibility of the seven members having a discussion on how to divide UAE's share, but it will likely be a futile exercise in the absence of other OPEC members. In case of a normalcy in situation, which includes the complete unwinding of the voluntary cuts and a resumption of regular flows through Hormuz Strait, the OPEC could consider a fair distribution of UAE's quota among other members, she added.The UAE in late-April decided to quit OPEC, after a nearly six-decade long association, in a development that shocked energy markets, citing long-term strategic and economic priorities and future energy plans.While UAE's exit could encourage other member nations to consider a similar strategy, the energy supply crisis is likely to help OPEC maintain cohesion within the group as it doesn't have to deal with the contentious issue of production cuts for the time being, Bakr said."You get tension when you impose cuts. And we're in a completely opposite situation now. We're in a situation where the market needs more supply," she added.Echoing Bakr, Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf editor at Argus Media, said UAE's exit from the group was unlikely to have any effect in the immediate term."UAE's withdrawal won't have too much of an effect in the immediate term - not in terms of market balances, or in terms of OPEC dynamics. What we saw at last month's meeting - the first since the UAE announced its exit - is that the OPEC secretariat is largely keen and content to not overemphasize it," Itayim said."My understanding is that the UAE will formally only exit by the end of the year, as per OPEC statutes. So... in reality, not much has changed just yet," he added.According to Sarkar, while UAE's exit is unlikely to affect OPEC's decision-making in the short-term for now, an impact could be felt in 2027 and beyond."On the question of contagion risk, yes Iraq and Kazakhstan could use the UAE precedent as leverage in internal quota negotiations rather than actually exiting. Other countries do not have the level of strategic conviction or financial muscle power that UAE has to pursue their independent aims," he added.