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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Slip as Weather Models Cool Demand Outlook

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US natural gas futures fell in midday trading on Friday on shifting weather forecasts, after rallying nearly 4.5% in the prior session.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both declined 3.69% to $3.213 per million British thermal units.

Thursday's rally followed an Energy Information Administration report showing US inventories rose by 95 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 29, below the 97-105 Bcf market expectation and well under the year-ago build of 199 Bcf and the five-year average injection of 101 Bcf. Stocks were 138 Bcf, or 6% above the five-year average and 3 Bcf, or less than 1%, below last year.

Aegis Hedging said prices were pressured by updated forecasts showing limited overall changes, though regional shifts were notable. In the 1-10 day outlook, the Northeast saw only minor warming, while most temperature gains were outside the Lower 48, in Canada, according to CWG. The Rockies and Midwest turned significantly cooler, with declines of more than 10-12 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Criterion models.

The EIA reported Thursday that higher central US temperatures increased cooling demand in the week ended June 3, adding 247 cooling degree days across the Lower 48 -113 above normal. That drove a 1.0 Bcf/d, or 3%, increase in electric power sector consumption. However, total US natural gas demand fell 1.0 Bcf/d, or 1%, according to LSEG Data.

On the supply side, NRG said dry gas production rose 1.2 Bcf/d day-over-day to 108.2 Bcf/d, reversing earlier-week declines.

LNG flows also eased. The EIA reported that LNG-carrying capacity from vessels departing US ports totaled 111 Bcf in the week ended Jun. 3, down 10 Bcf from the prior week, with 29 vessels departing, three fewer week over week. The decline reflected ongoing maintenance at export facilities.

Freeport's 16.5 MTPA terminal entered planned maintenance in mid-May lasting several weeks. Cameron's 13.5 MTPA facility recently completed scheduled annual maintenance on one train after about 30 days, while Corpus Christi experienced a partial outage in May, according to Vortexa. Sabine Pass, the largest US liquefaction hub, is not expected to see prolonged downtime in 2026, it said.

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