Commodities
Biofuels Update: Soybean Oil Heads for 4th Monthly Gain, Palm Oil Retreats
Chicago soybean oil futures were on track for a fourth monthly rise on Thursday, while Malaysian palm oil partially reversed the previous month's gains due to slowing exports.The May soybean oil contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was little changed in early trade, hovering near contract highs at 75.32 cents per pound. The contract was set to rise 9.4% over the month, tracking strength in the crude oil market.A robust soybean oil market helped lift soybeans, with the May CBOT soybean contract set for a 0.7% monthly gain on Thursday. In early trade, it lost 0.23% versus the previous closing price to $11.79 per bushel.Rising biofuel demand and delays in Argentina's soybean harvest due to rainfall supported prices and dampened concerns about surplus supply.Relative to a 60% seasonal average by this time, progress with Argentina's current harvest was a mere 10%, according to Trading Economics.In Brazil, the harvest was more than 90% completed, and exports could surge 21.5% to 16.4 million metric tons in April versus year-ago levels, price reporting agency MySteel said, citing industry figures.In the US, the pace of planting remained faster than the five-year average, although rainfall in some areas could slow activity.In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures retreated toward the end of the session, bringing monthly losses to around 6%, as weaker export performance offset upsides from higher crude oil prices and biofuel demand.The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' May crude palm oil contract eased 0.02% to settle at 4,504 Malaysian ringgit ($1,133.94) per metric ton. The June contract edged lower by 0.11% to 4,540 ringgit/mt.April losses partially reversed the 19% gain posted last month after the onset of the US-Iran conflict.Despite a strengthening in crude oil prices, MySteel said "the (palm oil) market may refocus on near-term pressure in the physical market."Weakening fundamentals continued to weigh on prices, particularly with a reported 15.7% to 16.8% month-over-month decline in Malaysian shipments for the April 1-25 period, as estimated by cargo surveyors.Expectations of higher production in the coming months following a seasonal low also added to negative sentiment.Meanwhile, the full-year production outlook points to tighter supplies, due to concerns over surging fertilizer costs and a possible drought.Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, warned that the country's palm oil output could drop by 1 million to 2 million tons if the El Nino weather phenomenon develops and if farmers delay application of fertilizer toward the end of the season, Reuters reported."In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to trade in a range," MySteel said, citing limited support provided from elevated crude oil prices.In the US, May-dated ethanol futures on the NYMEX jumped 3.27% to $2.05 per gallon on Wednesday, as industry data showed a surge in weekly exports and a decline in outputExports almost doubled to 170,000 barrels per day in the week ended April 24, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed, relative to the previous week's 91,000 b/d. Exports were also down versus the prior year's 141,000 b/d.US domestic output dropped week over week to 1.01 million barrels per day, from 1.04 mmbbls/d recorded a week ago and a year earlier.Consequently, ethanol stocks in the US fell to 25.9 million barrels from the previous week's 26.9 mmbbls. The level, however, remained higher than the prior year's 25.4 mmbbls.