United States Oil Fund

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Premarket Thursday

Energy stocks were declining premarket Thursday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 0.6%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 1.8% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.6% lower.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 2.3% lower at $75.06 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil lost 1.5% to $78.39 per barrel, and natural gas futures were down 0.3% at $3.14 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Equinor (EQNR) and its partners have selected the development concept for the Ringvei Vest project in the Norwegian North Sea, which is expected to contribute about 240 million barrels of oil equivalent, the company said. Equinor stock was down more than 4% pre-bell.Venture Global (VG) signed new binding agreements with German energy company EnBW to supply 820,000 tonnes per annum of US liquefied natural gas over a period of five years beginning in 2026, the LNG producer said. Venture Global shares were 0.4% lower premarket.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Thursday as Interim US-Iran Deal Lifts Risk Sentiment

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.4%, and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 1.3% in Thursday's premarket activity, as investors welcomed an interim US-Iran agreement that reduced concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.7%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 1.3% before the start of regular trading.US initial jobless claims fell to a level of 226,000 in the employment survey week ended June 13 from an upwardly revised 230,000 level in the previous week, compared with expectations for a larger decrease to 225,000 in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:30 am ET.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index rose to 10.3 in June after decreasing to minus 0.4 in May, compared with expectations for a slightly smaller increase to a reading of 10 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.May's leading indicators data will be released at 10:00 am ET, followed by weekly natural gas stocks at 10:30 am ET.In premarket action, bitcoin was down by 0.6%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.5% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) advanced 0.4%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was flat.Power Play:FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 0.9%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.8% lower.HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) shares traded up 12% in early hours activity a day after the company said it received municipal approval to purchase the 32-megawatt Big Boden data center in Sweden from Bodens Utvecklings.Winners and Losers:Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.2%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was down 0.1%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) gained 1.1%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.1% higher.Legend Biotech (LEGN) stock was down more than 9% premarket after the company priced an underwritten public offering of 7.7 million American depositary shares at $29.35 each, for gross proceeds of about $226 million.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) gained 2%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was flat, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 1.9%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was 2.1% higher, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 4.2%.Intel (INTC) shares were up more than 9% in premarket activity after President Donald Trump said Apple (AAPL) has "agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America." Apple stock was gaining by 0.3%.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) gained by 0.03%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was down by 0.5%.Equinor (EQNR) stock was down more than 3% before market open after edging down 0.2% in the prior close. The company and its partners said they have selected the development concept for the Ringvei Vest project in the Norwegian North Sea, which is expected to contribute about 240 million barrels of oil equivalent.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was up 0.3%, the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was flat, and the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 0.5%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) rose 1%.Diageo (DEO) shares gained nearly 1% pre-bell after the Financial Times reported that Chief Executive Dave Lewis has ordered senior executives to implement broad cost-cutting measures as part of a major restructuring effort at the spirits giant.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 1%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) was up 1.9% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.SpaceX (SPCX) stock was down more than 1% before the opening bell after experiencing its first post-IPO retreat from recent record highs, as market data and multiple analysts point to active put option trading and technical downward pressure following the stock's initial surge.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated by 1.9% to $75.35 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas gained by 0.5% to $3.16 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) declined by 1.2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.6% lower.Gold futures for July were down by 2.7% to $4,261.40 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures retreated by 5.6% to $67.33 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained by 0.6%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.02% lower.

Oil Falls to the Lowest in More than Three Months as the Iran-U.S. Deal Looks to Free Persian Gulf Supply

Oil traded at the lowest in more than three-months early on Thursday after Iran and the United States signed a ceasefire deal that promises to soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz, freeing up supply from Iran and the Persian Gulf nations that has been blocked since the war began on Feb. 28.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$1.31 to US$75.48 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was down US$1.07 to US$78.48.Oil prices have sunk by 16% since last Friday as the United States and Iran on the weekend reached a deal to end the war that has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February. The closure of the Strait trapped in much of the supply from Persian Gulf nations that produced a fifth of daily oil demand.The United States and Iran on Wednesday signed their 14-point memorandum of understanding, which begins a 60-day negotiations period and sees sanctions on Iranian exports lifted and reopens the key Strait, freeing supply trapped on tankers in the Gulf since the war began ."Crude prices fell to fresh lows after Wednesday's rebound proved short-lived, with markets continuing to price in a rapid normalization of supply following President Trump's signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal. Attention has now shifted to the pace at which traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can recover. An estimated 100 million barrels of crude and refined products are already loaded on tankers and waiting to leave the Gulf, while regional producers are taking steps to restart shut-in production," Saxo Bank noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported U.S. oil stocks fell by 8.3-million barrels last week, the eighth-straight weekly drop. Bloomberg News reported the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also been depleted, with stocks falling to the lowest since 1983 as the country looked to boost supply to lower fuel prices.

Update: WTI Oil Closes Higher As Details Of Iran-U.S. Peace Deal Emerge; IEA Expects Production To Surge In 2027

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher Wednesday, rising off the lowest in more than three months as details of the peace deal between Iran and the United States emerge, while the International Energy Agency sees inventories depleted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to return to surplus next year.WTI oil for July delivery closed up US$0.74 to settle at US$76.79 per barrel, rising off the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen up US$0.41 to US$79.37.Oil markets are settling as the memorandum of understanding reached by the United States and Iran to end their war looks to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil shipment from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand.CNN said it obtained a copy of the deal, reporting the two countries agreed to restore normal shipping through the Strait within 30 days, while Iran will be allowed to resume exporting oil to global markets amid other concessions to Islamic Republic."The MoU declares an immediate ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but front-loads concrete economic benefits to Iran - oil export waivers, frozen asset releases, and naval blockade removal - while deferring all hard nuclear questions to a final agreement," Erik Meyersson, chief EM Strategist at SEB Research, wrote.Since the war began on Feb.28, oil-importing countries have depleted inventories amid the loss of most Persian Gulf supply. In its influential monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said global oil inventories fell by an average 3.8-million barrels per day since the start of the conflict, while it expects stocks to fall to record lows in coming months before the market returns to surplus late this year.The agency said it sees global demand down 1.1-million barrels per day this year, down 700,000 bpd from its May report, with 2026 annual supply down by an average 3.0-million bpd due to closure of the Strait. However the market is expected to return to a significant surplus in 2027, with the IEA seeing demand in the year to rebound by two-million bpd while global production surges."Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year. Global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d. By contrast, oil supplies look set to surge by around 8 mb/d to 110 mb/d. This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves," the agency said.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$0.74; Settles at US$76.69 per Barrel

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Lean Lower Pre-Bell Wednesday

Energy stocks were leaning lower pre-bell Wednesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 0.1%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 0.3% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 2.1% lower.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 1% higher at $76.81 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil rose 1.1% to $79.86 per barrel, and natural gas futures were down 2.5% at $3.15 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Western Midstream Partners (WES) said the second produced-water treatment pilot facility in its joint industry project has begun operations in Reeves County, Texas, in the Permian Basin. Shares of Western Midstream Partners were 0.6% lower premarket.ConocoPhillips (COP) confirmed that it has signed a development agreement with Syria's new government, after an earlier Financial Times report said the company was poised to become the first major US oil and gas producer to do so. ConocoPhillips shares were 0.3% higher pre-bell.Antero Resources (AR) has set up a commercial paper program under which it may issue up to $1.65 billion of short-term unsecured notes, the company said in a regulatory filing. Antero Resources stock was flat premarket.

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, Equity Futures Mixed Pre-Bell Wednesday Ahead of Fed Rates Announcement

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.1% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 0.7% in Wednesday's premarket activity, ahead of the highly anticipated interest rate announcement by the Federal Reserve at 2 pm ET.US stock futures were mixed, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.6% before the start of regular trading.Mortgage applications fell by 3.8% in the week ended June 12 after a 10.8% increase in the previous week, as average 30-year fixed mortgage rates held steady, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday.US retail sales rose by 0.9% in May, a larger gain than the 0.6% increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET and following the previous month's revised 0.4% gain.The pending home sales data for May and the business inventories data for April are both scheduled to be released at 10:00 am ET.Weekly petroleum stocks data are due to be released at 10:30 am ET.The Federal Reserve's 2 pm ET announcement will be followed by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference at 2:30 pm ET.In premarket action, bitcoin was down by 1.3%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 1.2% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) retreated by 2.1%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was inactive.Power Play:Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) retreated by 0.1%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) fell 0.2% and the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.5% higher.AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) shares rose 2.4%, and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) stock was up 1.6% premarket after the companies signed a preclinical research collaboration, option, and license deal to discover and develop T-cell-engaging multispecific antibodies.Winners and Losers:IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 0.3%, the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) was up 0.1%, and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.SpaceX (SPCX) stock was up more than 3% before the opening bell, following a 4.8% rise in Tuesday's session. Investor Michael Burry, known for calling the US housing collapse and the 2008 financial crisis, wrote in his newsletter on Tuesday that the company's put options remain too expensive.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced by 1.3%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was up 0.8%, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 1.9%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was 1.9% higher, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 2.7%.Nokia (NOK) shares were up 2.6% in premarket activity after the company said it will expand its advanced semiconductor test and packaging facilities in Allentown, Pennsylvania, to increase the manufacturing of photonic chips for artificial intelligence networks.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was down 0.6%, and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was up 1%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.2%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was flat.Stellantis (STLA) shares were up 1.9% pre-bell after Bloomberg reported, citing FIM-CISL labor union secretary general Ferdinando Uliano, that the company has pledged new investments in Italy, including 5 billion euros ($5.80 billion) in research and development by 2030 and the addition of engineering jobs.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated by 0.03%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 0.4%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.2% higher.Aegon (AEG) shares were down 0.8% pre-bell after gaining 1.5% at the prior close. The company said it has appointed Will Fuller as chief operating officer, effective Jan. 1, 2027.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was down 0.8%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) retreated by 0.1%.YPF (YPF) stock was down 0.1% before the opening bell, adding to the 2.6% loss at the previous close. Reuters reported that the company signed a letter of intent to explore collaborations in fast-charging networks and energy storage infrastructure.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained by 0.9% to $76.73 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas retreated by 0.7% to $3.22 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) declined by 0.4%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 1.1% lower.Gold futures for July were slightly lower to $4,352.50 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures gained 0.1% to $70.58 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) declined by 0.01%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.3% lower.

Oil Edges Higher Early As Details Of Iran-U.S. Peace Deal Emerge; IEA Expects Production To Surge In 2027

Oil edged higher early Wednesday, rising off the lowest in more than three months as details of the peace deal between Iran and the United States emerge, while the International Energy Agency sees inventories depleted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to return to surplus next year.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$0.87 to US$76.92 per barrel, rising off the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was up US$0.69 to US$79.66.Oil markets are settling as the memorandum of understanding reached by the United States and Iran to end their war reached on the weekend looks to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil shipment from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand.While the text of the MoU has not yet been released, CNN said it obtained a copy of the deal, reporting the two countries agreed to restore normal shipping through the Strait within 30 days, while Iran will be allowed to resume exporting oil to global markets amid other concessions to Islamic Republic."The MoU declares an immediate ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but front-loads concrete economic benefits to Iran - oil export waivers, frozen asset releases, and naval blockade removal - while deferring all hard nuclear questions to a final agreement," Erik Meyersson, chief EM Strategist at SEB Research, wrote.Since the war began on Feb.28, oil-importing countries have depleted inventories amid the loss of most Persian Gulf supply. In its influential monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said global oil inventories fell by an average 3.8-million barrels per day since the start of the conflict, while it expects stocks to fall to record lows in coming months before the market returns to surplus late this year.The agency said it sees global demand down 1.1-million barrels per day this year, down 700,000 bpd from its May report, with 2026 annual supply down by an average 3.0-million bpd due to closure of the Strait. However the market is expected to return to a significant surplus in 2027, with the IEA seeing demand in the year to rebound by two-million bpd while global production surges."Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year. Global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d. By contrast, oil supplies look set to surge by around 8 mb/d to 110 mb/d. This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves," the agency said.

Brent Crude Up 0.1% at Just Above US$79 and NY Crude Flat To Slightly Higher At Above US$76

Oil Prices Not Expected to Return to Pre-War Levels Anytime Soon Despite Peace Deal, Commerzbank Says

Commerzbank sees only limited further downside potential in oil prices and does not expect a return toward pre-war levels until next year despite the preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran, according to a Tuesday note.Even in the best-case scenario, in which the Strait of Hormuz is sustainably reopened, it is expected that shipping traffic and energy exports from the Gulf region will take some time to normalize again, the bank noted.Some of the countries in the Gulf region can be expected to increase their production above pre-war levels in the medium to long term. This was already planned by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which, until recently, had been voluntarily curbing their production, the bank said.Given the current level of demand, this would result in a substantial excess supply, which could push the oil price significantly lower. However, it cannot be assumed that countries with spare capacity will or are able to fully utilize it, according to Commerzbank.Oil demand is also likely to be higher than before the outbreak of the war for a certain period, as many countries need to refill their oil reserves. As the demand-intensive season has begun and a rapid normalization of energy exports from the Gulf region is unlikely, inventories are likely to continue to fall in the coming months.Commerzbank forecasts a Brent oil price of US$85/barrel even at the end of 2026 and does not expect a return toward $65/barrel until 2027.

Crude Oil Prices Hold Steady as Investors Digest Supply Impacts of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

Crude oil prices were little changed as investors continued to digest potential impacts of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude at last look edged up 0.3% to US$79.16/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.2% to $76.19/barrel. The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has not been made public, but details began to emerge Tuesday, with a U.S. official saying Iran would be allowed to sell oil upon signing, Reuters said in a Wednesday report."The current baseline is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and that ships will begin transiting through this critical chokepoint in both directions," Reuters quoted PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga as saying. "The gradual resumption of oil flows, however slow, will materially affect the oil balance."The International Energy Agency also forecast a significant supply overhang in 2027, with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day and demand rising by only 2 million bpd.

Update: WTI Oil Falls 5.8% on Hopes for a Quick Return of Persian Gulf Supply Following the Iran-U.S. Truce

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell for a fourth-straight session on Tuesday, closing down 5.8% on expectations supply is on the rise as the market anticipates the weekend truce between Iran and the United States will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$4.70 to settle at US$76.05 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen down $4.46 to US$78.71.Oil is down 17% in the past four sessions as the market expects a return of Persian Gulf supply as the U.S and Iran reached a truce in the war that produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, shutting in much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by countries in the region.While terms of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, ships are expected to soon begin openly transiting the Strait that has been blocked since the Feb. 28 start to the war, boosting supply to the mostly Asian markets that depend on Gulf exports. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal reported the United States is already allowing Iran to ship oil through the Strait.However the war has damaged oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf nations following Iranian attacks on its neighbors, while shut-in oilfields could be slow to restart, keeping supply below pre-war levels, even as the market anticipates a quick return of the region's production."The (price) reaction highlights how quickly markets have shifted from pricing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history to focusing on recovery. Brent crude, which briefly traded above USD 120 per barrel during the height of the crisis, has fallen back toward the low USD 80s as traders anticipate a return of stranded supply and easing market tightness. Even so, prices remain well above the pre-war USD 60-70 range.," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$4.70, or 5.8%, Settles at US$76.05 per Barrel

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Tuesday

Energy stocks were declining pre-bell Tuesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) falling 0.7%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 4% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.1% higher.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 3.9% lower at $77.62 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil fell 3.3% to $80.47 per barrel, and natural gas futures were up 0.6% at $3.17 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Sable Offshore (SOC) stock was down more than 4% after the company said it launched a proposed senior secured term loan of up to $1 billion to refinance its existing secured term loan with Exxon Mobil (XOM).Shell's (SHEL) electric vehicle charging service Shell Recharge and SINEXCEL have launched a joint laboratory in Shenzhen, China, to develop EV charging technologies and energy solutions, the Chinese energy technology company said. Shell shares were 0.5% lower premarket.ConocoPhillips (COP) is set to become the first major US oil and gas company to sign a development agreement with Syria's new government, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. ConocoPhillips stock was down more than 1% pre-bell.

Oil Prices Fall Again on Hopes for a Quick Return of Persian Gulf Supply Following the Iran-U.S. Truce

Oil prices fell for a fourth-straight session early Tuesday on expectations supply is on the rise as the market anticipates the weekend truce between Iran and the United States will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $2.89 to US$77.86 per barrel, the lowest since March 3, while August Brent oil was down $2.97 to US$80.20.Oil is now down 14% in the past four sessions as the market expects a return of Persian Gulf supply as the U.S and Iran reached a truce in the war that produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, shutting in much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by countries in the region.While terms of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, ships are expected to soon begin openly transiting the Strait that has been blocked since the Feb. 28 start to the war, boosting supply to the mostly Asian markets that depend on Gulf exports.However the war has damaged oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf nations following Iranian attacks on its neighbors, while shut-in oilfields could be slow to restart, keeping supply below pre-war levels, even as the market anticipates a quick return of the region's production."The (price) reaction highlights how quickly markets have shifted from pricing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history to focusing on recovery. Brent crude, which briefly traded above USD 120 per barrel during the height of the crisis, has fallen back toward the low USD 80s as traders anticipate a return of stranded supply and easing market tightness. Even so, prices remain well above the pre-war USD 60-70 range.," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Tuesday Ahead of Fed Policy Meeting

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.04%, and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 0.2% in Tuesday's premarket activity, ahead of the Fed's monetary policy committee meeting on interest rates.A decision on interest rates is due tomorrow.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.2% before the start of regular trading.In premarket action, bitcoin was down by 0.3%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 0.3% lower, Ether ETF (EETH) retreated by 1.4%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) declined by 0.02%.Power Play:HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.2%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 0.2%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was down 0.7%.Alvotech (ALVO) stock was down more than 6% premarket after the company priced an underwritten public offering of about 22.7 million shares at $3.75 per share, for gross proceeds of about $85 million.Winners and Losers:IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 0.2%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) was up 0.5% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.SpaceX (SPCX) stock was up more than 4% before the opening bell following a 19.6% rise at the prior close. The company said it has signed an agreement to acquire Cursor in a deal with an implied equity value of $60 billion.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced 0.5%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.6% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 1.5%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) increased by 0.4%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 0.5%.Qualcomm (QCOM) shares were up more than 4% in premarket activity after CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the company is developing more than 40 new AI device designs as it prepares for the next wave of "agent" powered consumer electronics.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was down 0.1%, and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was up 1.1%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained by 0.1%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 1.1% higher.Tesla (TSLA) shares were down nearly 1% pre-bell after closing Monday with a 1.2% gain. Global electric vehicle sales are expected to be slower than previously expected, especially in the United States, hurt by the withdrawal of regulatory support for electrification in the country, according to a Tuesday note published by BloombergNEF.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.2%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 0.5%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.5% lower.Fiserv (FISV) shares were up more than 1% pre-bell after the company said it has launched tender offers to buy all $750 million of 5.15% senior notes due 2027, and all $2 billion of 4.40% senior notes due 2049.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was flat, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was down by 0.3%.TotalEnergies (TTE) stock was up nearly 1% before market open, a day after the European Commission said it had approved a joint venture between TotalEnergies and Masdar focused on renewable energy projects in the Asia-Pacific region.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated by 2.9% to $78.40 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas advanced by 0.9% to $3.18 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) declined by 3.9%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.2% lower.Gold futures for July advanced by 0.2% to $4,360.00 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures rose by 0.4% to $70.44 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was up by 0.6%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose by 0.7%.

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Likely Dropped 6.1 Million Barrels in Week Ended June 12, Macquarie Says

U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have fallen 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 12, adding to a draw of 7.2 MM BBL in the prior week, Macquarie said in a Monday note.Macquarie also noted that persistently high crude exports and strategic petroleum reserve draws could inject volatility into weekly stats."With June/July as the expected window for potential gasoline demand destruction tomanifest, two consecutive soft prints here are notable," Macquarie said. "That said, firm signs of large US gasoline demand destruction have yet to emerge."Crude runs at refineries are forecast to have edged higher by 0.1 million barrels per day. Net imports are expected to have dropped, with exports up 0.3 MBD and imports down 0.2 MBD, Macquarie said.Implied domestic supply is projected to have bounced back from the previous week, rising 0.6 MBD. Strategic petroleum reserves are expected to have been reduced by 8.9 MM BBL.Gasoline stocks are forecast to have gained 0.7 MM BBL, while distillate stocks are projected to have fallen 0.4 MM BBL. Jet fuel stocks are forecast to have increased by 0.5 MM BBL. Macquarie modeled implied demand for these three products at about 14.4 MBD during the report week.

Brent Crude Down 2% at Near US$81.50 and NY Crude Down 2.25% at Under US$79

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Markets Await Further Details on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

Crude oil prices dropped further on Tuesday as markets await further developments on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following an initial deal between the U.S. and Iran to end the war.Brent crude at last look fell 2.1% to US$81.44/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 2.4% to $78.81/barrel. This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding has been signed to end the war in the Middle East, exacerbated by weaker physical demand, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.The U.S. is set to start a new round of talks in Switzerland on Friday to reach a final agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, as reported by Reuters.Flows through the strait are expected to resume soon, adding to downward pressure on prices, according to analysts. A range of indicators has also pointed to weakening physical oil markets in recent weeks, Reuters quoted Morgan Stanley analysts as saying in a client note.However, details are not yet available and a permanent deal has not yet been reached, so volatility risks remain, analysts said in the report.

Update: WTI Oil Slumps as Iran and the United States Agree to a Truce, Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday after the United States and Iran reached a truce in the war that has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of the daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$4.13 to settle at US$80.75 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$83.21.In a deal brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran on Sunday reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal will see the Strait reopening on Friday, releasing tankers trapped in the Gulf and freeing up oil exports from the region. A final deal is expected to take up to two months to reach.The war has forced importing countries to draw down stockpiles, depleting global inventories that had been swelled by over-production prior to the start of the war. Iranian attacks on its regional neighbors damaged crucial oil infrastructure and shut in producing producing oil fields, which will take at least months to restore pre-war output, likely keeping prices elevated for months."Whether prices, currently around US$13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices. The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market," Saxo Bank noted.