Treasury
TSX Closer: Index Plunges On Concerns Around Elevated Oil Prices and Inflation, Overshadows Pipeline Agreement
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply lower Friday as rising global bond yields sapped investor appetite for equities, with elevated oil prices reigniting concerns around the outlook for higher inflation and with that, overshadowing news of an energy agreement that could see pipeline construction start in oil-rich Alberta within about two years.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 434.92 points, or 1.25%, to 33,833.25, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down 5.5% as gold was lower, and Health Care, down 3.6%.Higher oil price have boosted the Energy sector, which gained 2% on a day when the big local news centered around the Canadian federal government's plans to greenlight Alberta oil pipeline construction in return for oil-sands producers moving ahead with a massive carbon-capture.With a green light from the federal government, Alberta hopes to begin construction on a new oil pipeline as early as fall 2027, with oil flowing by 2033-34,CTV National News reported, while noting there remains no clear private sector investor to pay for it.Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith met in Calgary Friday to sign an updated deal. It outlines that the federal government will work towards designating the pipeline a project of national interest by Oct. 1, with a date of Sept. 1, 2027, for potential construction approval.The deal also raises the effective carbon price for Alberta to $130-a-tonne by 2040, instead of 2030 as previously laid out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the pair in November. That deal originally laid out conditions for the new pipeline to the West Coast. Alberta estimates the new pricing will save the industry about $250 billion by 2050.Friday's see headline carbon-emission costs move from a current $95 per tonne to $115 in 2030, $130 by 2035 and $140 by 2040, Alberta's headline carbon price is currently set at $95-a-tonne.But today the impact of the higher oil price outside of Canada dictated how the trading day went.As the conflict in the Middle East is about to enter its twelfth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping following the failure of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, noted National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor. "If the crisis is not resolved, what looms is a multi-faceted supply shock that would put considerable pressure on supply chains, drive inflation upwards beyond the sectors most exposed to energy prices, and likely force several central banks to tighten monetary policy," it said."Of course," National Bank added, "such an outcome is not inevitable, as a negotiated agreement between the two warring parties remains a distinct possibility. Indeed, this is currently factored into our baseline scenario. It is important to note, however, that while a reopening of the strait would lead to better economic outcomes in many regions, it would not resolve all the issues. This is because it would likely take several weeks, or even several months, before maritime traffic could return to its pre-crisis level."National Bank said even if the political impasse were to be resolved relatively quickly, as it still anticipates, the world would not return to its previous growth trajectory. The resilience of the U.S. would likely be more than offset by the weakness of emerging markets in Asia and Europe, and this would result in growth of 3.0% this year and 3.3% next year, it added.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter in his weekly 'Talking Points' note said Canada "has certainly not escaped the global bond sell-off", noting 30-year yields were above 4%. They touched that level on one day in late 2023, but haven't otherwise been there since 2010, he noted. Porter added the "important" five-year yield has jumped to 3.35%, its highest level in almost two years and is now up more than 65 bps since the start of the war. "That will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and further dampen a soggy housing market, thus tightening conditions notably without the Bank of Canada even lifting a finger."Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 4.2% on fading hopes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as this week's U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran. WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.25 to settle at US$105.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$3.56 to US$109.28.But gold traded lower by midafternoon Friday as the dollar and yields climbed on concerns around inflation and concerns the rise in oil prices will force central banks to hike interest rates. Gold for June delivery was down $140.90 to US$4,544.40 per ounce.
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