$SU

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Late Afternoon

Energy stocks declined late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) each shedding 1.8%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index slumped 5%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index advanced 0.6%.In sector news, skirmishes continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group rejected a US-brokered proposal aimed at securing a broader truce, Bloomberg reported.US President Donald Trump said he would meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal is finalized to end the US-Iran war.West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3% to $90.28 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent declined 2.2% to $92.90 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures dropped 3.6% to $3.22 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Suncor Energy (SU) shares were down 4.8% in Friday afternoon trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to neutral from buy and raised its price target to CA$100 ($71.70) from CA$98.56.Duke Energy (DUK) said Friday it secured up to a $61.8 million grant from the US Department of Energy to support critical upgrades for its coal-fired power plants in Kentucky and North Carolina. Duke Energy shares rose 2.1%.StealthGas (GASS) shares rose 4.3% in Friday trading after the company's Q1 revenue beat Street consensus.NextNRG (NXXT) on Friday reported preliminary revenue of $9.3 million in May, up from $6.6 million a year earlier. NextNRG shares fell 15%.

Suncor Energy Shares Fall After Goldman Sachs Downgrade

Suncor Energy (SU) shares were down 4.3% in Friday afternoon trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to neutral from buy and raised its price target to CA$100 ($71.70) from CA$98.56.Trading volume stood at over 2.4 million shares compared with a daily average of about 4.4 million shares.Price: $62.67, Change: $-2.80, Percent Change: -4.28%

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Suncor Energy to Neutral From Buy, Raises Price Target to CA$100 From CA$98.56

Suncor Energy (SU) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of CA$102, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

Suncor Energy Benefits From Downstream Strength, Lower Cash Flow Volatility, RBC Says

Suncor Energy (SU) is expected to deliver improved operating and financial performance supported by its integrated downstream business and lower cash flow volatility, RBC said in a note Tuesday.The analysts said the main highlight from their discussions with management was the company's shift in strategy from "value over volume" to "value and volume," which has become a key part of the downstream turnaround at Suncor. This is reflected in a 10% refinery capacity re-rating to 511,000 barrels per day in March.Suncor Energy's downstream segment plays both an offensive and defensive role within its integrated business. It reduces exposure to Western Canadian Select price spreads, dampens free funds flow volatility, and provides financial diversification, the analysts added.Looking ahead, refining and marketing pre-tax FFO is estimated at $7.7 billion in 2026 under the base case, or about one-third of total corporate FFO, amid geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran war, according to the note.RBC reaffirmed its outperform rating and price target of CA$100 ($72.43) on Suncor.Price: $66.32, Change: $-1.03, Percent Change: -1.52%

Canadian Oil Sands Output Mixed as Cenovus, Suncor Track Ahead of Estimates, TPH Says

Canadian oil sands producers showed a mixed but broadly firm production profile in April, with several major operators tracking ahead of Q2 expectations, according to TPH Energy strategists on Tuesday.Cenovus Energy (CVE) led the group, with combined Foster Creek and Christina Lake volumes averaging about 600 million barrels per day in April, above the TPH Q2 estimate of 576 million b/d.Jeoffrey Lambujon, analyst at TPH Energy, said that the energy firm's key assets, Foster Creek and Christina Lake, rose over the month by about 7 million b/d to about 215 million b/d and 366 million b/d, respectively.The company's Sunrise project also strengthened, increasing about 8 million b/d over the month to a quarter-to-date average of 62 million b/d, ahead of the modeled 60 million b/d.TPH said Suncor Energy (SU) showed an uneven trend ahead of planned maintenance. The energy firm's Firebag operations declined, falling about 24 million b/d over the month to 216 million b/d, well above TPH's Q2 estimate of 159 million b/d, while MacKay River edged higher by 2 million b/d to 35 million b/d, broadly in line with expectations.Lambujon said the mixed performance suggests volatility ahead of turnaround activity.Imperial Oil saw Cold Lake volumes ease by about 6 million b/d over the month to an estimated 151 million b/d, below TPH's Q2 forecast of 156 million b/d.The softness points to modest operational drag versus expectations in the in-situ segment, Lambujon said.Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) delivered a more balanced performance, with Kirby projects flat over the month at a quarterly average of about 58 million b/d, ahead of the 53 million b/d TPH estimate.The company's Primrose Wolf Lake assets edged lower by 1 million b/d to 73 million b/d. However, it remained below the modeled 91 million b/d for the quarter. Jackfish was the weakest spot, falling 19 million b/d over the month to 115 million b/d, below the 132 million b/d forecast.Overall, TPH said the data points to resilience in key FCCL and select in-situ assets. However, performance dispersion remains pronounced across operators and individual projects as the sector moves deeper into Q2.Price: $29.29, Change: $-0.77, Percent Change: -2.55%

US Gasoline Hits Highest Memorial Day Level Since 2022 on Supply Shocks, EIA Says

US gasoline prices climbed to the highest level for the Memorial Day holiday since 2022 as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up crude prices and tightened global fuel supplies, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday.The EIA said the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.49 per gallon on May 18, up 42% from a year earlier and marking the highest level for the Monday before Memorial Day weekend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted oil markets three years ago.Rising crude prices, which typically account for about half of retail gasoline costs, have been the biggest driver behind the increase since February.The agency said global crude markets have been rattled by supply disruptions linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil shipments.Regional factors, including refinery outages, fuel specifications, and taxes, are also amplifying price disparities across the country.The Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted some of the steepest increases after refinery maintenance and outages constrained fuel supplies. Midwest gasoline prices averaged $4.40/gal on May 18, up 45% from a year earlier, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 47% to $4.59/gal.The EIA said several large refineries in the Midwest have been affected in recent weeks, including Phillips 66's (PSX) Wood River refinery in Illinois and Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Robinson refinery, both of which were undergoing maintenance.BP's (BP) Whiting refinery in Indiana also experienced a temporary outage following a power disruption. Suncor Energy's (SU) Commerce City refinery in Colorado suffered an unplanned shutdown after a power outage during maintenance work.On the West Coast, where gasoline prices are typically the nation's highest because of stricter fuel standards, limited pipeline connectivity and higher state taxes, prices averaged $5.61/gal, up 31% from a year earlier.California's unique fuel specifications, which make gasoline more expensive to produce, have continued to weigh on the region, according to the EIA. Imports into the West Coast have also risen as refining capacity in the region declines.The Gulf Coast retained the country's cheapest gasoline prices, averaging $3.95/gal, benefiting from its concentration of refining capacity and relatively low fuel taxes. The East Coast, the nation's largest gasoline-consuming region, averaged $4.31/gal.The EIA said the US has rolled out several emergency measures to ease fuel market pressures.The government is releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with the International Energy Agency, temporarily allowing nationwide sales of E15 gasoline and issuing waivers under the Jones Act to facilitate fuel shipments between US ports.Federal regulators have also relaxed enforcement of summer-grade gasoline standards. Despite the higher prices, holiday travel demand remains resilient.The American Automobile Association estimates 39.1 million Americans will travel by car over the Memorial Day weekend, in line with last year.Price: $67.65, Change: $-0.08, Percent Change: -0.12%

Suncor Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at C$105.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target following first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner."Suncor posted Q1 beats across the board, with downstream throughput/product sales primarily driving better AFFO vs. consensus, with better-than-expected capex further supporting a clean FCF beat. Headline Q1 metrics included beats on AFFO/shr (C$3.39 vs. TPHe/Street C$3.34/3.29) and capex (C$1.08B excl. capitalized interest vs. TPHe/Street C$1.19B/1.22B), which together drove the beat on FCF (C$2.91B vs. TPHe/Street C$2.76B/$2.69B). The beat vs. our model on AFFO owed mainly to much greater Downstream performance with 498mbpd throughput coming in well north of TPHe/Street 477/472, representing 97% utilization on the newly rerated 511mbpd nameplate capacity; C$1.98B AFFO was slightly above TPHe C$1.87B but well north of Street C$1.61B. On Upstream ops, 875mbopd came in modestly below our model but also well above Street, comparing to TPHe/Street 880/868, with the delta vs. TPHe driven by Oil Sands production of 799mbopd vs. TPHe 805, with Syncrude maintenance offsetting record Fort Hills; C$2.89B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street C$2.94B/C$2.83B. E&P was in-line on volumes vs. our model but again well north of Street, at 76mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 75/62; C$0.56B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street $0.41B/C$0.35B," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $88.79, Change: $-6.26, Percent Change: -6.59%

Suncor Energy Posts Record Q1 Upstream, Downstream Operating Results

Canadian energy company Suncor Energy (SU) Tuesday reported new Q1 records for upstream production and refining throughput.For the quarter ended March 31, upstream output totaled 875,200 barrels per day, up from the 853,200 b/d posted in the year-ago period and a new record for the quarter.Oil sands production during the quarter totaled 798,800 b/d, compared with 790,000 b/d a year earlier, with quarterly output at Fort Hills reaching a record high, the company said.The exploration and production segment contributed 76,400 b/d output, higher than the previous year's 62,300 b/d, due to "strong production at all assets," according to Suncor.Consequently, upstream sales grew year over year to 872,100 b/d from 828,400 b/d.In the downstream segment, crude oil processing reached a Q1 record of 497,800 b/d, higher than the prior year's 482,700 b/d, driven by capacity additions from debottlenecking activities and sustained strong operating performance, the company said.Capacity additions led to a 10% increase in refining network nameplate capacity to 511,000 b/d as of Jan. 1. With this new nameplate capacity, refinery utilization averaged 97% in Q1, up from the prior year's 94%, according to the report.The company also said that its refined product sales grew to a quarterly record of 680,900 b/d, relative to 604,900 b/d a year earlier, reflecting higher refinery production.Suncor said it achieved strong sales performance as it "capitalized on global export sales opportunities while continuing to deliver more domestic volumes through retail growth and strategic partnerships."

Research Alert: CFRA Maintained Buy Rating On Suncor Energy Inc. As Free Funds Flows Grows 53%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We maintain our 4-STARS (Buy) rating and boost our target price to CAD103. This reflects a 8.0x EBITDA multiple and 18.0x earnings multiple based on our 2027 projections. We increased the EBITDA multiple in tandem with the industry multiple to reflect superior operational execution. The story is largely unchanged since the 2026 Investor Day, as Q1 proved to be another strong quarter of cash flow generation and value return. Upstream production reached 875.2k bbl/d, up 2.6% Y/Y. Refining throughput reached 497.8k bbl/d at 97% utilization, while refined product sales increased 13% to 680.9k bbl/d. Free funds flow grew 53% to CAD2.91B. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through CAD825M in share repurchases and over CAD700M in dividends. We maintained our 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts of CAD6.97 and CAD5.39, respectively.

Research Alert: Su Maintained Buy As Free Funds Flows Grows 53%: Tp $75

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We maintain our 4-STARS (Buy) rating and boost our target price to CAD103. This reflects a 8.0x EBITDA multiple and 18.0x earnings multiple based on our 2027 projections. We increased the EBITDA multiple in tandem with the industry multiple to reflect superior operational execution. The story is largely unchanged since the 2026 Investor Day, as Q1 proved to be another strong quarter of cash flow generation and value return. Upstream production reached 875.2k bbl/d, up 2.6% Y/Y. Refining throughput reached 497.8k bbl/d at 97% utilization, while refined product sales increased 13% to 680.9k bbl/d. Free funds flow grew 53% to CAD2.91B. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through CAD825M in share repurchases and over CAD700M in dividends. We maintained our 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts of CAD6.97 and CAD5.39, respectively.

Research Alert: Su Q1: Record Q1 Production, Increases Share Repurchases 30%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:SU reported adjusted operating earnings of CAD2.3B, up 41%, driven by improved downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations, and volume growth. Adjusted funds from operations increased 32% to CAD4.03B while free funds flow surged 53% to CAD2.91B, with upstream production reaching 875.2k bbl/d (+2.6%) and refining throughput at 497.8k bbl/d with 97% utilization. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, while management increased monthly share repurchases by 27% to CAD350M, projecting total 2026 buybacks of nearly CAD4B, a 30%+ increase over 2025 levels. The Investor Day outlined three-year targets including CAD2B increase in free funds flow by 2028, USD5/bbl reduction in corporate WTI breakeven to USD38/bbl, and 100k bbl/d upstream production growth. We remain bullish on their highly efficient integrated positioning, as crude price drops should enable return to ~100% utilization with higher throughput capacity and benefit from that pricing environment.

Research Alert: Su Q1: Record Q1 Production, Increases Share Repurchases 30%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:SU reported adjusted operating earnings of CAD2.3B, up 41%, driven by improved downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations, and volume growth. Adjusted funds from operations increased 32% to CAD4.03B while free funds flow surged 53% to CAD2.91B, with upstream production reaching 875.2k bbl/d (+2.6%) and refining throughput at 497.8k bbl/d with 97% utilization. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, while management increased monthly share repurchases by 27% to CAD350M, projecting total 2026 buybacks of nearly CAD4B, a 30%+ increase over 2025 levels. The Investor Day outlined three-year targets including CAD2B increase in free funds flow by 2028, USD5/bbl reduction in corporate WTI breakeven to USD38/bbl, and 100k bbl/d upstream production growth. We remain bullish on their highly efficient integrated positioning, as crude price drops should enable return to ~100% utilization with higher throughput capacity and benefit from that pricing environment.

Suncor Energy Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Gross Revenue Rise

Suncor Energy (SU) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of CA$1.93 ($1.42) per share, up from CA$1.31 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected CA$1.74.Gross revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was CA$15.42 billion, up from CA$13.33 billion a year earlier.Four analysts surveyed by FactSet expected CA$12.83 billion, if comparable.

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q1 Revenue C$15.42 Billion, vs. FactSet Est of C$12.83 Billion

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q1 Adjusted Operating EPS C$1.93, vs. FactSet Est of C$1.74

Suncor Energy Maintained at Outperformer at CIBC Ahead of Q1 Results; Price Target at C$110.00

CIBC Capital Markets on Monday reiterated its outperformer rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) and its C$110.00 price target ahead of the May 5 release of the oil producer and refiner's first-quarter results."We estimate Q1/26 production of 862 MBoe/d and CFPS of $3.23, vs. consensus of 868 MBoe/d and $3.29, respectively. We expect the impact from the natural gas outage on oil sands production to be largely offset by the company's ability to transfer barrels between assets. On the downstream side, we expect the company to continue showing strong market capture, with FIFO/LIFO gains of at least $500 million. The company repurchased $823 million of shares during Q1/26, and we expect full-year share buybacks to be approximately $4 billion. The company hosted an Investor Day focusing on growth of 100 MBbl/d by 2028, a decrease of the WTI dividend breakeven to US$38, and prudent capital allocation including increased FCF generation and returns to shareholders," the investment bank noted.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $92.33, Change: $+0.50, Percent Change: +0.54%

Suncor Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Ahead of Q1 Results; Price Target at C$105.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Tuesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target ahead of first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner."Updating our model took our Q1'26 CFPS estimate higher to C$3.34 vs. prior TPHe/Street C$2.47/C$3.23, with markto-market factors the primary driver, more than offsetting moving pieces on ops (mainly Upstream production). At the segment level and in the context of total AFFO of TPHe C$3.95B, the key components of our build-up include TPHe C$2.94B for oil sands (TPHe 805mbopd in-line with Street, down vs. our prior 821 on sector-wide NGTL impacts and the early Feb coker outage which the company maximized in terms of elected maintenance work), C$423MM for E&P (TPHe 75mboepd production vs. prior TPHe/Street of ~60/~58 the driver of the delta in our overall production outlook), and TPHe C$1.87B (TPHe 477mbopd throughput vs. prior TPHe/Street 461/475)," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon noted.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)