Chip, Drug Makers to Drive Non-Residential Construction Rebound, UBS Says
US non-residential construction is approaching a reacceleration, driven by semiconductor and pharmaceutical investments, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Tuesday.The brokerage expects manufacturing-related construction to rebound to more than $200 billion by the end of next year following a 25% drop to $186 billion in the last 12 months.Electric vehicle and battery plants, as well as semiconductor investments, drove the previous buildout cycle from 2021 to 2024, UBS analysts, including Steven Fisher, said."Our analysis and project tracking continues to suggest the drivers this cycle will be another round of semiconductor factories and pharmaceutical projects, in addition to some general industrial and defense related investments," Fisher wrote.UBS upgraded its 2027 growth outlook for non-residential construction to 6.7% from 6%, while lowering the 2026 view to show a 0.9% drop, all in nominal terms.The semiconductor industry has announced nearly $300 billion in year-to-date investments, according to the note. The CHIPS and Science Act, which became law in 2022, initially boosted capacity expansion, but companies have reassessed plans over the last one to two years."For some time, semiconductor manufacturers have remained relatively disciplined in their capacity expansion plans, preferring to add capacity in response to demand rather than build ahead of it," Fisher said. "That demand now appears firmly in place."Pharmaceutical companies have announced about $400 billion in new investments over the last two years, including a commitment of at least $20 billion from Eli Lilly (LLY), amid surging demand for weight loss drugs, the UBS note showed.Defense spending is also on the rise due to the evolving geopolitical situation."In addition to structural drivers discussed above, we think that cyclical drivers will add to growth," Fisher said.The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index has been expanding for eight months in a row following three years of sluggish performance, according to the brokerage. Separately, S&P Global (SPGI) said last week that manufacturing growth held steady sequentially in August.UBS said equipment rental firm United Rentals (URI) is the main beneficiary of the manufacturing capacity expansion.The brokerage is also positive on United Rentals' peer Equipmentshare.com (EQPT) and construction machinery names Oshkosh (OSK), Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE) and CNH Industrial (CNH).Materials providers like Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) and CRH (CRH) and some companies in the engineering and construction sector will also benefit from a pickup in factory activity, according to the note.
