$LCOM6

Oil Prices Rise as Expected Talks Between Iran and the U.S. Fail to Take Place

Oil prices rose early Monday as talks expected to be held over the weekend between the United States and Iran in Pakistan didn't happen. But prices eased off overnight highs as Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for it being allowed to continue its nuclear program and the U.S. ending the blockade of its ports.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up $1.36 to US$95.76 per barrel, after earlier touching US$97.10, while June Brent oil was up US$1.44 to US$106.77.Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28. The Strait is the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations and its closure has produced the largest-ever supply shock, pushing up oil prices by 41% since the start of the war.Talks expected to be staged in Islamabad over the weekend were cancelled as negotiators failed to turn up, though a ceasefire held as the war enters its third month."With face to face negotiations failing to materialize in Islamabad despite the market hour headlines pointing to progress in the talks, it seems that neither side feels sufficient pressure to make serious concessions. For eight weeks, the White House has been exceedingly successful in deploying the "over soon" message to keep a lid on front month prices," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.The Guardian on Monday reported Iran is offering to end its chokehold on the Strait in return for an end to the U.S. blockade, and without addressing concerns around its nuclear program, which U.S. President Trump has made a key demand for ending the war. The paper said the proposal was passed to the United States by Pakistan.

NY Crude Now Up 0.7% at Just Over US$95, Was Near US$96.30; Brent Crude Now Up 1% at US$106.36, Was Near US$107.60

NY Crude Up 2% at Near US$96.30 and Brent Crude Up 2.2% at Near US$107.60

Brent Crude Up 2.4% at Near US$107.90 As US-Iran Peace Talks Stall

Update: WTI Oil Falls as a Report Says Peace Talks Between the U.S. and Iran May Resume

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell on Friday following a report that said Pakistani officials expect another round of talks between the United States and Iran.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.45 to settle at US$94.40 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$0.15 to US$105.22.Bloomberg News reported Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a team of negotiators are expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday for talks with a U.S. delegation already in place. The Wall Street Journal said U.S negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel the Pakistan capital for the talks that could re-open the Strait of Hormuz.The Strait is the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand prior to the Feb. 28 start to the war, which also trapped shipments of of diesel and jet fuel, as well as petrochemical feedstocks and fertilizers."What began as a crude oil supply shock linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now broadened into a multi-commodity disruption. The implications are no longer confined to energy markets alone but are spreading into industrial production, transportation, and ultimately agriculture and food price," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.Still, a quick end to the war is unlikely to produce a quick end the largest-ever energy supply shock. The U.S. Pentagon on Thursday warned it may take six months to clear mines laid in the Strait, the Washington Post reported on Thursday."That is a completely different timescale from what the financial market is pricing. Even a political deal tomorrow does not immediately reopen the strait," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.45; Settles at US$94.40 per Barrel

Oil Prices Fall as a Report Says Peace Talks Between the U.S. and Iran May Resume

Oil prices fell early on Friday following a report that said Pakistani officials expect another round of talks between the United States and Iran.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen down US$1.07 to US$94.78 per barrel, while May Brent oil fell US$0.42 to US$104.65.Bloomberg News reported Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a team of negotiators are expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday for talks with a U.S. delegation already in place. The report sent prices down from overnight highs on hopes a potential deal that would reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz.The Strait is the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations, which supplied 20% of daily oil demand prior to the Feb. 28 start to the war, which also trapped shipments of of diesel and jet fuel, as well as petrochemical feedstocks and fertilizers."What began as a crude oil supply shock linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has now broadened into a multi-commodity disruption. The implications are no longer confined to energy markets alone but are spreading into industrial production, transportation, and ultimately agriculture and food price," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.Still, a quick end to the war is unlikely to produce a quick end the largest-ever energy supply shock. The U.S. Pentagon on Thursday warned it may take six months to clear mines laid in the Strait, the Washington Post reported on Thursday."That is a completely different timescale from what the financial market is pricing. Even a political deal tomorrow does not immediately reopen the strait," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB Research, wrote.

Brent Crude Now Down 1.5% at Near US$103.50 and NY Crude Down Near 2.2% at Near US$93.80 As Pakistan Officials Say Second Round of U.S. and Iran Talks Expected

Brent Crude Up 2.1% at Near US$107.30 and NY Crude Up 1.9% at US$97.65

Update: WTI Oil Closes Higher as the Prospects for a Peace Deal in the Iran War Stall

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed highe on Thursday with the United States and Iran making little progress to end a war that has produced the largest-ever supply shock with shipments from the Persian Gulf region barred from the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$2.89 to settle at US$95.85 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$3.07 to US$104.98.The United States and Iran remain at an impasse, with Iran refusing to negotiate as long as the U.S. Navy continues to blockade its ports, while the U.S. refuses to lift the blockade. Iran is attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of the world's daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations, while reports say U.S. forces are boarding Iranian ships in the Indian Ocean."The Iranian leadership had made the lifting of the US blockade a precondition for the resumption of negotiations, with a senior official calling it an act of military aggression. President Trump for his part has indicated that the ceasefire will remain in place for now, leaving the conflict in a no airstrike, minimal movement of ships, unsustainable equilibrium," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research wrote.WTI oil is up 43% since the Feb. 28 start to the war, but has retreated below the four-year high of US$112.95 touched on April 7 on hopes for a coming end to the conflict. However should traders expect the current impasse between the two sides to stretch out, prices could retest that four-year high."Trump has been touting that a deal with Iran is imminent through most of April. But a deal now looks increasingly elusive. Poly market bets in the US for when the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) will reopen have declined sharply over the past week. Bets on a reopening by 13 May has declined 27% since last Friday to now only 39%. Expectations for when the SoH will reopen is sliding rapidly into the future. That implies a higher oil price," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research wrote.

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$2.89; Settles at US$95.85 per Barrel

Oil Edges Higher as the Prospect for a Peace Deal in the Iran War Stalls

Oil edged higher early on Thursday with the United States and Iran making little progress to end a war that has produced the largest-ever supply shock with shipments from the Persian Gulf region barred from the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$0.33 to US$93.29 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up US$0.50 to US$102.41.The United States and Iran remain at an impasse, with Iran refusing to negotiate as long as the U.S. Navy continues to blockade its ports, while the U.S. refuses to lift the blockade. Iran is attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of the world's daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations, while reports say U.S. forces are boarding Iranian ships in the Indian Ocean."The Iranian leadership had made the lifting of the US blockade a precondition for the resumption of negotiations, with a senior official calling it an act of military aggression. President Trump for his part has indicated that the ceasefire will remain in place for now, leaving the conflict in a no airstrike, minimal movement of ships, unsustainable equilibrium," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research wrote.WTI oil is up 37% since the Feb. 28 start to the war, but has retreated below the four-year high of US$112.95 touched on April 7 on hopes for a coming end to the conflict. However should traders expect the current impasse between the two sides to stretch out, prices could retests that four-year high."Trump has been touting that a deal with Iran is imminent through most of April. But a deal now looks increasingly elusive. Poly market bets in the US for when the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) will reopen have declined sharply over the past week. Bets on a reopening by 13 May has declined 27% since last Friday to now only 39%. Expectations for when the SoH will reopen is sliding rapidly into the future. That implies a higher oil price," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research wrote.

Brent Crude Up 1.1% at US$103 and NY Crude Up 1.15% at Near US$94

Brent Crude Up 1.75% at US$103.70

Update: WTI Oil Moves Higher as the U.S. Extends Its Ceasefire While Iran Continues to Refuses To Talk

West Texas Intermediate (WTO) crude oil rose Wednesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran while continuing to blockade the country's ports, and as Iran attacked ships in the Persian Gulf while rejecting talks with the U.S. until the blockade is lifted.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$3.29 to settle at US$92.96 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$3.65 to US$102.13.Oil markets continue to react to developments in the U.S. war on Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping shipments from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. While U.S. President Trump on Tuesday extended a ceasefire for attacks on the country, he refused to lift a blockade on Iran's ports. Iran has made lifting the blockade a key demand for resuming negotiations to end the war."Oil prices continue to whipsaw ... after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, even as peace talks remain on hold due to Tehran's refusal to negotiate while the US maintains its naval blockade ... the result is a continued and severe, and potentially growing, disruption to flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.Despite the U.S. ceasefire, Iran attacked three ships on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported, while U.S. forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean.In its weekly report, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.9-million barrels last week, while inventories of gasoline and distillates fell.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$3.29; Settles at US$92.96 per Barrel

Oil Moves Higher as the U.S. Extends Its Ceasefire While Iran Continues to Refuses To Talk

Oil prices moved higher early Wednesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran while continuing to blockade the country's ports, and as Iran attacked ships in the Persian Gulf while rejecting talks with the U.S. until the blockade is lifted.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up $0.15 to US$89.82 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up $0.42 to US$98.90.Oil markets continue to react to developments in the U.S. war on Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping shipments from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. While U.S. President Trump on Tuesday extended a ceasefire for attacks on the country, he refused to lift a blockade on Iran's ports. Iran has made lifting the blockade a key demand for resuming negotiations to end the war, and again allowing ships to transit the Strait."Oil prices continue to whipsaw, but with Brent holding below US$100 after Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran, even as peace talks remain on hold due to Tehran's refusal to negotiate while the US maintains its naval blockade...the result is a continued and severe, and potentially growing, disruption to flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.Despite the U.S. ceasefire, Iran attacked two ships on Wednesday, with the Wall Street Journal reporting gunboat attacks on a container ship and another unidentified vessel, while U.S. forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean.A report showed U.S. oil inventories fell last week. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported inventories fell by 4.4-milion barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a 1.0-mllion barrel drop, according to Investing.com. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Wednesday morning.

Brent Crude Up 1.1% at US$99.60

Update: WTI Oil Rises Amid an Uncertain Outlook for U.S.-Iran Talks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed higher on Tuesday amid an uncertain outlook for talks between Iran and the United States.WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up US$2.52 to settle at US$92.13 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen US$3.11 to US$98.59.The drop comes amid expectations that talks between the two countries will reach a deal to end hostilities as a two-week ceasefire agreement is set to expire tomorrow. However Iran has not publicly confirmed it will send negotiators to Pakistan to meet with the United States, though the Wall Street Journal reported Iran has told mediators it will send a team to the talks.Prices surged on Monday as Iran on Friday briefly opened and then again closed the Strait of Hormuz as the United States continued to block Iranian ports and disabled and boarded an Iranian cargo ship. The closure of the Strait is blocking oil exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand."Potential talks with the US in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Wednesday follows a weekend marked by renewed tensions and conflicting signals, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for now. The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities," Saxo Bank noted.The closure of the Strait has forced up spot prices for oil as Asian nations fight for immediately available supply while raising concerns high oil prices, as well as the price of refined products, LNG and other commodities supplied by Persian Gulf countries, will hike inflation and force higher interest rates.

May WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$2.52; Settles at US$92.13 per Barrel