$LCOM6

Brent Crude Up Near 0.9% at Near US$111.40 and NY Crude Up Near 0.4% at About US$105.50

Market Chatter: Trump Administration Authorizes New pipeline From Canada to U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an order authorizing the Bridger Pipeline's proposed project to transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Wyoming, CTV News reported.Bridger Pipeline's project would have the capacity to move more than 1 million barrels of oil per day, according to the company. If built and connected, analysts told Reuters it could increase Canada's crude exports to the U.S. by more than 12%.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Closes Lower, Off Overnight Highs Despite Little Sign of Progress to End the Iran War

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Thursday, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.81 to settle at US$105.07 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$113.91, after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that they should be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock.The shortage is hitting hardest in Asia, which buys 80% of Persian Gulf exports, with countries bidding up spot prices and increasingly looking to tap China's strategic stockpiles to avoid shortages."There continue to be reports of fuel shortages in rural communities in several (Asian) countries whilst fuel distribution appears to be a bit of hap hazard. We continue to see more and more essentially government to government deals with China allowing some exports to friendly countries and Thailand considering providing more support to neighboring countries," Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie Group, wrote.Still, there is little sign of any negotiations to end the war and reopen the blocked Strait. Talks scheduled between the United States and Iran expected to be held last weekend in Pakistan failed to take place after the U.S. refused an Iranian demand to lift a blockade of Iranian ports. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. President Trump is asking other countries to join a coalition to reopen the Strait in what the American government is calling the "Maritime Freedom Construct" as it looks for its embassies to press allies to join, while Trump warned of an extended blockade of the Strait until Iran agreed to end its nuclear program.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.81; Settles at US$105.07 per Barrel

Oil Price Ease, Falling Off Overnight Highs Despite Little Sign of Progress to End the Iran War

Oil prices eased early on Thursday, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen down US$2.44 to US$104.44 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was down US$4.01 to US$114.02 after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that they should be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock.The shortage is hitting hardest in Asia, which buys 80% of Persian Gulf exports, with countries bidding up spot prices and increasingly looking to tap China's strategic stockpiles to avoid shortages."There continue to be reports of fuel shortages in rural communities in several (Asian) countries whilst fuel distribution appears to be a bit of hap hazard. We continue to see more and more essentially government to government deals with China allowing some exports to friendly countries and Thailand considering providing more support to neighboring countries," Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie Group, wrote.Still, there is little sign of any negotiations to end the war and reopen the blocked Strait. Talks scheduled between the United States and Iran expected to be held last weekend in Pakistan failed to take place after the U.S. refused an Iranian demand to lift a blockade of Iranian ports. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. President Trump is asking other countries to join a coalition to reopen the Strait in what the American government is calling the "Maritime Freedom Construct" as it looks for its embassies to press allies to join, while Trump warned of an extended blockade of the Strait until Iran agreed to end its nuclear program.

Brent Crude Down 2.5% at Near US$115 and NY Crude Down 1.5% at Near US$105.20 After Eight Day Streak of Higher Prices

Brent Crude Now Down 1.5% at About US$116.20, Having Touched Above $126 a Barrel Earlier

Update: WTI Oil Closes Above US$100 With No End to the Iran War in Sight; U.S. Inventories Fall

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Wednesday, rising for a fourth-straight session as hopes for a coming end to the Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fade, while a report showed an larger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$6.95 to settle at US$106.88 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$6.74 to US$118.00.WTI has now climbed 59% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock."The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets ... Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today's US inventory report for further signs of how quickly US stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand," Saxo Bank wrote.In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 6.2-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters forecast a drop of 2.2-million barrels.The oil market is also focusing on the Tuesday decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the OPEC Cartel. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer and the No. 7 global oil exporter. The decision is unlikely to have a near-term effect, given the supply shock, but could add additional supply to the market once the conflict ends."Given the world is currently suffering from a lack of supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE's departure doesn't really matter since it is already producing at its maximum capacity. That is the maximum it can export via its pipeline (1.5-1.8 mb/d) to the Gulf of Oman given the closure of the Strait, which is why the UAE's overall output fell to 2.37 mb/d in March (vs. 3.64 mb/d in February). In the longer run, when hopefully the conflict is resolved, it may matter more as the UAE could supply the global oil market with an additional 1.0 mb/d. Moreover, OPEC/OPEC+ is losing one of its most vital members," Art Woo, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$6.95: Settles at US$106.88 per Barrel

U.A.E's OPEC Withdrawal Likely to Begin Lowering Oil Prices by 2027

The decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the OPEC cartel on May 1 is unlikely to offer any near-term relief from high oil prices this year, but raises over-supply risks and lower prices beginning as soon as 2027, Woods Mackenzie said on Wednesday.The UAE's move to leave OPEC comes amid its long-standing push to boost production as it chafed under OPEC quotas while spending to boost its potential output. The country is OPEC's No.3 oil producer and the world's No.7 exporter. Removing quota restrictions makes it a powerful competitor to the cartel and could begin returning the market to over-supply once a recovery from the Iran war is complete."As the nation with the second-largest liquids capacity in OPEC, the UAE's exit is momentous. However, it's not entirely surprising as political tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been building over the last few years and have intensified in recent months amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. UAE's departure from OPEC will have minimal impact on market fundamentals in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Gulf countries, including the UAE, will take months to return to pre-war production volumes. Beyond this year, losing the UAE will compound OPEC's challenge to balance the market and increase the risk of oversupply weakening prices," chief analyst Simon Flowers said in a release.The analytics firm said when the UAE begins competing with OPEC, OPEC+ and other producers for market share next year "challenges OPEC's current policy of unwinding its voluntary cuts. If tensions escalate, competition between the UAE and OPEC for market share could send medium-term oil prices sharply lower".

Oil Prices Firm Above US$100 With No End to the Iran War in Sight

Oil prices firmed above US$100 per barrel early on Monday, rising for a fourth-straight session as hopes for a coming end to the Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fade, while a report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. oil inventories.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$3.35 to US$103.28 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was up US$3.45 to US$114.71.WTI has climbed about 49% since the war began on Feb. 28, when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, following attacks by the United States and Israel. The United States is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran has demanded that be lifted before peace talks can resume, which the U.S. is refusing to do, continuing the largest-ever supply shock."The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets ... Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today's US inventory report for further signs of how quickly US stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand," Saxo Bank wrote.In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil stocks fell by 1.79-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate expected a rise of 0.3-million barrels, according to Investing.com.The oil market is also focusing on the Tuesday decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from the OPEC Cartel. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer and the No. 7 global oil exporter. The decision is likely to have a near-term effect, given the supply shock, but could add additional supply to the market once the conflict ends."Given the world is currently suffering from a lack of supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE's departure doesn't really matter since it is already producing at its maximum capacity. That is the maximum it can export via its pipeline (1.5-1.8 mb/d) to the Gulf of Oman given the closure of the Strait, which is why the UAE's overall output fell to 2.37 mb/d in March (vs. 3.64 mb/d in February). In the longer run, when hopefully the conflict is resolved, it may matter more as the UAE could supply the global oil market with an additional 1.0 mb/d. Moreover, OPEC/OPEC+ is losing one of its most vital members," Art Woo, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote.

Brent Crude Up 3.15% at Near US$114.75

Update: WTI Rises as Progress on Ending the Iran War Stalls; the UAE Ends Its OPEC Membership

(Updates prices and adds UAE's Withdrawal from OPEC in the final two paragraphs.)West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed higher on Tuesday, with the U.S. benchmark price flirting with the US$100 per barrel for the first time in three weeks as hopes for an end to the war on Iran fade and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$3.56 to settle at US$99.93 per barrel as it failed to hold the US$100 mark it topped during the session, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$2.58 to US$110.81.Weekend talks expected to be held in Pakistan between Iran and the United States failed to take place, while a Monday proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for lifting a U.S. blockade of its ports and deferring talks over its nuclear program was rejected by President Trump.Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28. The Strait is the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations and its closure has produced the largest-ever supply shock, pushing up oil prices by 49% since the start of the war."Oil extended its rally ... amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel," Saxo Bank noted.The closure of the Strait has pushed up spot price for oil, as the Asian nations that rely on Gulf producers compete for available barrels. Rising prices have heightened inflation and raises the risk of a global recession as the lack of supply forces demand destruction and chokes off economic growth."Alarm bells will ring loudly if the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) doesn't reopen during May. Spot crude and product prices will trade higher and higher. And if a decent reopening doesn't take place before June/July, then the risk is significant for a real crisis where the world may be forced to reduce its oil consumption closer to the level of availability," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.Also on Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates, the No.3 OPEC producer and the No.7 global oil exporter, said it will withdraw from OPEC on May 1, freeing itself from the cartel's quota system that restricted its output well below its production capacity."We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance and wish them success. During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets," the country's government said in a release.

April WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$3.56; Settles at US$99.93 per Barrel

Market Chatter: United Arab Emirates Says It Will Leave OPEC Effective May 1

The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will leave the oil cartel OPEC and its wider OPEC+ group effective May 1, a move rumored for some time as the Emirates chaffed under production restrictions and increasingly had frostier relations with neighboring Saudi Arabia, The Associated Press is reporting.The UAE had been a longtime member of OPEC, first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when the UAE became its own country in 1971, the report notes.But the UAE has been increasingly trying to leverage its own foreign policy in the Middle East that has contradicted some positions of Riyadh over time -- particularly as Saudi Arabia began to directly challenge the Emirates in trying to draw foreign investments as the kingdom opened up under assertive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the report says.The UAE made the announcement via its state-run WAM news agency. "This decision reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets," the UAE said."Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions," it added.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

United Arab Emirates Says It Will Leave OPEC Effective May 1 ,The Associated Press is reporting

Oil Prices Jump as Progress on Ending the Iran War Stalls

Oil prices were sharply higher early on Tuesday, with the U.S. benchmark price rising back above US$100 per barrel for the first time in three weeks as hopes for an end to the war on Iran fade and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$4.94 to US$101.31 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was up US$3.66 to US$111.89.Weekend talks expected to be held in Pakistan between Iran and the United States failed to take place, while a Monday proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for lifting a U.S. blockade of its ports and deferring talks over its nuclear program was rejected by President Trump.Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28. The Strait is the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations and its closure has produced the largest-ever supply shock, pushing up oil prices by 44% since the start of the war."Oil extended its rally ... amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel," Saxo Bank noted.The closure of the Strait has pushed up spot price for oil, as the Asian nations that rely on Gulf producers compete for available barrels. Rising prices have heightened inflation and raises the risk of a global recession as the lack of supply forces demand destruction and chokes off economic growth."Alarm bells will ring loudly if the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) doesn't reopen during May. Spot crude and product prices will trade higher and higher. And if a decent reopening doesn't take place before June/July, then the risk is significant for a real crisis where the world may be forced to reduce its oil consumption closer to the level of availability," Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst commodities at SEB Research, wrote.

Brent Crude Up 3.1% at US$111.55 and NY Crude Up 3.6% at Near US$99.90

Update: WTI Oil Rises as Expected Talks Between Iran and the U.S. Fail to Take Place

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher Monday as talks expected to be held over the weekend between the United States and Iran in Pakistan didn't happen, even as Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for it being allowed to continue its nuclear program and the U.S. ending the blockade of its ports.WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$1.97 to settle at US$96.37 per barrel, while June Brent oil was last seen up US$3.13 to US$108.46.Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28. The Strait is the chokepoint for 20% of daily global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations and its closure has produced the largest-ever supply shock, pushing up oil prices by 41% since the start of the war.Talks expected to be staged in Islamabad over the weekend were cancelled as negotiators failed to turn up, though a ceasefire held as the war enters its third month."With face to face negotiations failing to materialize in Islamabad despite the market hour headlines pointing to progress in the talks, it seems that neither side feels sufficient pressure to make serious concessions. For eight weeks, the White House has been exceedingly successful in deploying the "over soon" message to keep a lid on front month prices," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.The Guardian on Monday reported Iran is offering to end its chokehold on the Strait in return for an end to the U.S. blockade, and without addressing concerns around its nuclear program, which U.S. President Trump has made a key demand for ending the war. The paper said the proposal was passed to the United States by Pakistan.

June WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$1.97; Settles at US$96.37 per Barrel