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Commodities

Oil Gains as Iran Deal Hopes Fade, US Rig Data Sends Mixed Signals, TPH Says

Oil prices rose Monday as prospects for a US-Iran agreement weakened amid reports of new US demands and ongoing military tensions, TPH Energy Research analysts said in a Monday note.Brent crude climbed about 3% from Friday's close after Iran said no agreement had been reached and reports indicated President Donald Trump is seeking revisions to a proposed framework.The move follows a roughly 9% decline in Brent since May 22, when optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough had weighed on prices.The reported changes would address the transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.TPH said the uranium provision is likely to face strong resistance from Tehran, potentially complicating negotiations already strained by what Iran has described as shifting US positions.Iran has maintained that progress in nuclear talks is contingent on ending the conflict and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Economic issues also remain unresolved, with Tehran seeking sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and a reconstruction package reportedly worth about $300 billion.Separately, Qatar's deputy prime minister said temporary fees to fund mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz could be negotiable. TPH said the remarks mark the first public indication from a regional government that such charges may be considered.On the supply side, US land drilling activity produced mixed signals last week. The Enverus rig count was unchanged at 592 rigs, while the Baker Hughes (BKR) count rose five rigs to 541. Over the past four weeks, the two measures show net gains of six and four rigs, respectively.Enverus reported a six-rig increase in horizontal drilling activity, split evenly between public and private operators, with all gains occurring outside the Permian Basin. The Bakken led with a three-rig increase.TPH cautioned that data quality remains an issue, estimating the Enverus dataset may be missing at least 12 horizontal rigs.Recent rig deployments by Helmerich & Payne (HP), Patterson-UTI (PTEN) and Precision Drilling suggest stronger activity than reflected in the reported figures, with Patterson-UTI and Precision confirming increases in their published rig counts.

$BKR$HP$PTEN
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Opinion On Shares Of Helmerich & Payne Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Our 12-month target price of $22, raised $3, reflects a 4.8x multiple of enterprise value to projected FY 27 (Sep.) EBITDA, about in line with HP's historical forward average. We now see a FY 26 loss per share of $0.28 vs. prior EPS estimate of $0.12. For FY 27, we keep our EPS estimate unchanged at $0.85. We believe our below-consensus view on earnings power in both FY26 and FY27 speaks to a more tepid pace of recovery in North America, where pricing pressure is still evident. We also note that the International land rig business likely depends, to a significant degree, on how quickly the Middle East recovers from the disruption imposed by the war with Iran. We think E&P customers are not likely to aggressively pursue land drilling expansion plans beyond current budgets (at least not in CY 26). We note that E&Ps also divert a considerable portion of operating cash flow to other areas, such as buybacks and dividends.

$HP
Wire

Oilfield Services Stocks Post Solid Q1 Results Amid Easing Middle East Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says

Oilfield services and equipment stocks delivered strong Q1 results, mainly driven by stable North American activity and better-than-feared Middle East impact, Morgan Stanley said in a note Thursday.According to the note, Middle East disruptions remained the main near-term headwind for the sector, but management teams broadly described the impact as "transitory."Companies including Baker Hughes (BKR), Halliburton (HAL), SLB (SLB), NOV (NOV), Helmerich & Payne (HP), and Tenaris (TS) pointed to effects such as offshore activity curtailments, supply chain friction, higher logistics costs, and softer regional activity.The companies also highlighted incremental activity upside outside the region, as customers increasingly focus on energy security and supply diversification. Tenaris noted that operators are already accelerating North American and offshore activity in response, while Transocean (RIG) said the conflict has reinforced the global energy security imperative, the bank said."The broader takeaway was that the geopolitical shock may ultimately extend the international and offshore upcycle, thus supporting a more constructive medium-term backdrop," the firm added.Morgan Stanley raised its price targets on Tenaris to $53 from $50 and on Helmerich & Payne to $39 from $35.Price: $62.98, Change: $-0.62, Percent Change: -0.97%

$BKR$HAL$HP$RIG$SLB$TS
Research

Research Alert: Hp: A Rough March Quarter, Both At Home And Abroad

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:HP posted an adjusted operating loss of $0.38 per share in Q2, deteriorating from a $0.15 loss in Q1 and missing consensus by $0.34, while revenues of $932M fell 8.4% sequentially amid lower activity levels. Adjusted EBITDA of $178M declined 23% sequentially amid persistent margin compression across all segments. Regional headwinds abounded with North America direct margin falling 10% to $215M on reduced average active rigs and pricing pressure, while International plunged 60% to $11.5M primarily due to Middle East conflict impacts starting February 28. Management guided North America direct margin to recover to $230M-$240M in Q4, but provided an exceptionally wide $12M-$32M range for International given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. HP meaningfully strengthened its balance sheet by completing the Utica Square sale for after-tax proceeds exceeding $100M and retiring $400M in debt ahead of schedule, while returning $25M to shareholders and focusing on the $350M bond maturity in CY 27.

$HP
Wire

RBC Raises Price Target on Helmerich & Payne to $40 From $38, Keeps Sector Perform Rating

Helmerich & Payne (HP) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $38, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $37.39, Change: $+0.49, Percent Change: +1.33%

$HP
Research

Research Alert: Hp: A Rough March Quarter, Both At Home And Abroad

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:HP posted an adjusted operating loss of $0.38 per share in Q3, deteriorating from a $0.15 loss in Q2 and missing consensus by $0.34, while revenues of $932M fell 8.4% sequentially amid lower activity levels. Adjusted EBITDA of $178M declined 23% sequentially amid persistent margin compression across all segments. Regional headwinds abounded with North America direct margin falling 10% to $215M on reduced average active rigs and pricing pressure, while International plunged 60% to $11.5M primarily due to Middle East conflict impacts starting February 28. Management guided North America direct margin to recover to $230M-$240M in Q4, but provided an exceptionally wide $12M-$32M range for International given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. HP meaningfully strengthened its balance sheet by completing the Utica Square sale for after-tax proceeds exceeding $100M and retiring $400M in debt ahead of schedule, while returning $25M to shareholders and focusing on the $350M bond maturity in 2027.

$HP
Commodities

US Active Rig Count Slips by 1 Week Over Week, US-Focused Service Firms Perform Strongly in Q1: RBC

Baker Hughes (BKR) US active land rig count fell by one week over week to 529, RBC Capital Markets said on Monday, while the US oil land rig count was flat at 397.The gas land rig count decreased by two in the week to 125, while miscellaneous rigs increased by one. The US oil land rig count fell by four month over month, while the gas land rig count fell by six over the same period.The Permian Basin's active rig count was flat over the week at 242. That region alone has 61% of the Lower 48 rigs and 46% of total land rigs in the US.US December production, based on EIA data, was 13.2 million barrels a day, rising 1% year over year, mainly driven by rising offshore production, which climbed 12% year over year.At the same time, land production decreased by an average 111,000 barrels per day as increases in New Mexico were partially offset by reductions elsewhere.Natural gas withdrawals in the US were 132 billion cubic feet per day, up 4% and supported by gains in Louisiana and New Mexico, RBC said.The three most active drillers in the Permian Basin are Helmerich & Payne (HP), with 88 rigs and 35% of the total, Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) with 31 rigs and Nabors Industries (NBR) with 27 rigs.The most active Permian operators are Exxon Mobil (XOM) with 34 rigs, Occidental (OXY) with 20 and ConocoPhillips (COP) with 16.In Haynesville, the rig count fell by 1 to 55 and the three most active drillers were Helmerich & Payne with 10 rigs, Independence Contract Drilling (ICD) with 9 and Precision Drilling (PD) with 8.WTI crude stocks fell by 5% week on week, RBC said.NOV (NOV) lowered its first quarter guidance due to financial impacts from disruption in the Middle East during March. Its updated EBITDA guidance is for $177 million,RBC has downgraded NOV to sector perform it said, noting less compelling risk/reward opportunity in its shares.Stocks in RBC's coverage universe within oil and gas services have risen by 36% this year with US-focused firms outperforming those with exposure in the Middle East.

$BKR$COP$HP$NOV$OXY$PTEN$XOM