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Oil Gains as Iran Deal Hopes Fade, US Rig Data Sends Mixed Signals, TPH Says

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Oil prices rose Monday as prospects for a US-Iran agreement weakened amid reports of new US demands and ongoing military tensions, TPH Energy Research analysts said in a Monday note.

Brent crude climbed about 3% from Friday's close after Iran said no agreement had been reached and reports indicated President Donald Trump is seeking revisions to a proposed framework.

The move follows a roughly 9% decline in Brent since May 22, when optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough had weighed on prices.

The reported changes would address the transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

TPH said the uranium provision is likely to face strong resistance from Tehran, potentially complicating negotiations already strained by what Iran has described as shifting US positions.

Iran has maintained that progress in nuclear talks is contingent on ending the conflict and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic issues also remain unresolved, with Tehran seeking sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and a reconstruction package reportedly worth about $300 billion.

Separately, Qatar's deputy prime minister said temporary fees to fund mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz could be negotiable. TPH said the remarks mark the first public indication from a regional government that such charges may be considered.

On the supply side, US land drilling activity produced mixed signals last week. The Enverus rig count was unchanged at 592 rigs, while the Baker Hughes (BKR) count rose five rigs to 541. Over the past four weeks, the two measures show net gains of six and four rigs, respectively.

Enverus reported a six-rig increase in horizontal drilling activity, split evenly between public and private operators, with all gains occurring outside the Permian Basin. The Bakken led with a three-rig increase.

TPH cautioned that data quality remains an issue, estimating the Enverus dataset may be missing at least 12 horizontal rigs.

Recent rig deployments by Helmerich & Payne (HP), Patterson-UTI (PTEN) and Precision Drilling suggest stronger activity than reflected in the reported figures, with Patterson-UTI and Precision confirming increases in their published rig counts.

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