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Wire

Estee Lauder's Turnaround Progressing, Puig Deal Complicates Narrative, Morgan Stanley Says

Estee Lauder's (EL) turnaround of its base business is progressing well and the company is seeing sufficient improvement in its organic sales growth to confirm the high end of its previous full-year sales range, Morgan Stanley said in a note emailed Monday with a review of the company's fiscal Q3 results.Also, the company's Q3 earnings per share upside backed an increase in its 2026 guidance, as well as a strong early 2027 outlook, even amid the pressure caused by the conflict in Iran, the note said.Morgan Stanley said, however, Estee Lauder's assumption that the prestige beauty business will accelerate in 2027 may be optimistic, adding the company was "incentivized to put its best foot forward ahead of potential equity in a Puig deal."There are some questions on "whether the execution/cultural risk of a large acquisition is worth the opportunity cost [versus Estee Lauder's] base business turnaround despite sizeable potential EPS accretion," the note said.The investment firm noted Puig is a complex target due to its big size, fragmented brand/geographic exposure, and the cultural risk of combining family-run companies."We remain on the sidelines here, waiting to see how strategic discussions play out, and looking for more confidence in sustained" Estee Lauder organic sales growth, the note said.Morgan Stanley kept its equal-weight rating on Estee Lauder and increased the company's price target to $90 from $85.Price: $82.07, Change: $+2.77, Percent Change: +3.49%

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Following stronger-than-expected FQ3 results, we lower our 12-month target by $10 to $87. This is based on 29x our FY 27 EPS estimate (rolled forward from 45x FY 26), a discount to shares' 39x three-year average forward multiple. We raise our FY 26 EPS estimate to $2.22 from $2.16 and FY 27's to $2.99 from $2.73. EL posted better gross margins (+140 bps) despite tariff costs and improved operating margins (+360 bps). Management also offered a constructive view on FY 27 operating margins, implying a 190 bps improvement at the midpoint. While these results were ahead of consensus, we highlight cost cuts as the primary driver, particularly point-of-sale headcount reductions. At current levels, shares trade at a premium to the overall market, limiting upside unless there is a recovery in EL's China market and legacy brand stabilization. This is offset by robust FQ3 organic growth in the Fragrance segment (+10%) and a higher FY 26 organic growth guide (+3%). We see balanced risk/reward at current valuation levels.

$EL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.6%.In sector news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure sufficient support from certain bondholders and the federal government for a $500 million lifeline, The Wall Street Journal reported. As a result, the airline is preparing to cease operations, the report said.In corporate news, Colgate-Palmolive (CL) shares rose 1.8% after the company reported Q1 results that topped analysts' expectations.The United Auto Workers union intends to hold a vote next week over whether to strike at a Stellantis (STLA) pickup truck factory in Suburban Detroit, Bloomberg reported, citing a UAW podcast. Stellantis shares were down 1.6%.Newell Brands (NWL) raised its 2026 sales outlook, crediting tax refunds, operational improvements, and better-than-expected consumer demand. Its shares jumped past 9%.Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 2.4%.

$CL$EL$NWL$STLA
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Friday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were mixed Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.7%.In sector news, Spirit Airlines failed to secure sufficient support from certain bondholders and the federal government for a $500 million lifeline, The Wall Street Journal reported. As a result, the airline is preparing to cease operations, the report said.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 3.2%.Newell Brands (NWL) raised its 2026 sales outlook, crediting tax refunds, operational improvements, and better-than-expected consumer demand. Its shares jumped past 9%.Harley-Davidson (HOG) is recalling about 88,039 motorcycles in the US due to a defect involving the airbox backplate breather port, Reuters reported Friday, citing a statement from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The company's shares were up 1.9%.

$EL$HOG$NWL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were mixed Friday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rising 0.7%.In corporate news, Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program. Its shares rose 3.5%.

$EL
US Markets

Estee Lauder Raises Earnings Outlook; Plans to Lay Off Additional Staff

Estee Lauder (EL) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Friday as the cosmetics company said it aimed to lay off more staff than previously planned as part of an ongoing restructuring program.Adjusted earnings are anticipated to come in between $2.35 and $2.45 per share for fiscal 2026, up from the company's prior guidance of $2.05 to $2.25. The current consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $2.23.The owner of beauty brands such as MAC expects sales to grow by 4%, compared with its previous outlook that called for an increase of 3% to 5%. Organic sales are pegged to rise by 3%, the high end of its previously issued forecast.Strong year-to-date results and "disciplined cost management" gives the company confidence in raising its fiscal 2026 outlook, Chief Financial Officer Akhil Shrivastava said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.The stock was up 6.3% in Friday trade, reducing its year-to-date loss to 22%.Estee Lauder, which is in talks to merge with Spanish beauty company Puig, said it now aims to eliminate 9,000 to 10,000 positions, up from its previous target of eliminating 5,800 to 7,000 roles. More than 70% of the increase is attributable to reduced department store staff roles as Estee Lauder taps into digital channels, Chief Executive Stephane de La Faverie told analysts.The company expanded the scope of its restructuring program in April to include additional initiatives, de La Faverie said.Estee Lauder expects pretax restructuring charges of between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, compared with $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion previously projected. The restructuring program is now projected to generate annual gross benefits of $1 billion to $1.2 billion.For the fiscal third quarter that ended in March, Estee Lauder's adjusted EPS jumped to $0.91 from last year's $0.65, which was the average analyst estimate on FactSet for the 2026 quarter. Sales improved 5% to $3.71 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $3.69 billion.Revenue in the skin care business rose 3% to $1.86 billion, while makeup increased 4% to $1.07 billion. Fragrance sales climbed 13%.The company said that business disruptions in the Middle East stemming from the US-Israel war with Iran are projected to have a greater impact on its fourth-quarter results versus the prior three-month period, which benefited from shipments made before the conflict began.Estee Lauder estimates EPS to take a $0.06 hit in the current quarter and sales to be dragged down by 2%.Energy prices have soared as the Iran war curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The war paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached.The company's preliminary view is that fiscal 2027 sales would rise by 3% to 5%.Price: $81.37, Change: $+4.66, Percent Change: +6.07%

$EL
Commodities

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, Equity Futures Mixed Amid Continued Earnings Results

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.3% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 0.1% in Friday's premarket activity, as earnings reports continued to pour in.US stock futures were mixed, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures slipping by 0.2% before the start of regular trading.The S&P Global US manufacturing purchasing managers index for April will be released at 9:45 am ET, followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index for April at 10 am ET.The weekly Baker Hughes domestic oil-and-gas rig count posts at 1 pm ET.In premarket action, bitcoin was up by 1.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 2.3% higher, Ether ETF (EETH) advanced 2.1%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) gained 1.6%.Power Play:ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was up 0.4% and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was flat. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was also flat. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.1%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 0.5% higher.Estee Lauder (EL) shares were up more than 11% pre-bell after the company reported higher fiscal Q3 earnings and said it expects to eliminate between 9,000 and 10,000 positions as part of a revised profit recovery program.Winners and Losers:Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.4%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 1.2%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was inactive. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was flat.Moderna (MRNA) stock was up more than 3% premarket after the company reported a narrower-than-expected net loss and higher revenue.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was down 0.1%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was 0.4% lower.Imperial Oil (IMO) stock was down more than 2% before Friday's opening bell after the company reported lower Q1 net income and revenue.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.4%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 1.3%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 1.1% lower.Aon (AON) shares were up 3% pre-bell after the company reported higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 0.4%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.4% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.Gates Industrial (GTES) stock was up more than 3% before the opening bell after Timken (TKR) agreed to sell the assets of its belts business to Gates.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced by 0.3%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.6% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 0.03%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) declined by 0.4%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell by 0.8%.Apple (AAPL) shares were up about 3% in premarket activity after the iPhone maker's fiscal Q2 results topped market estimates.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 2.6% to $102.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas gained by 0.3% to $2.78 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) decreased by 2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.8% higher.Gold futures for May were down by 0.5% to $4,607.80 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures added 1.5% to $75.31 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.5% lower, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gained by 0.8%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAPL$AON$BETH$BITO$EEM$EETH$EL$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GLD$GTES$IBB$IGM$IGV$IMO$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$MRNA$PMR$QQQ$RTH$SLV$SOXX$SPY$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Mixed Premarket Friday

Consumer stocks were mixed premarket Friday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) 0.4% higher and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.1%.Colgate-Palmolive (CL) stock was up more than 2% after the company posted higher Q1 non-GAAP earnings and net sales.Estee Lauder (EL) shares were up more than 11% after the company reported higher fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings and net sales, and raised its outlook for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share.Church & Dwight (CHD) stock was up more than 2% after the company reported Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales that topped analysts' expectations, with adjusted EPS increasing year over year.

$CHD$CL$EL$XLP$XLY
Research

Research Alert: El: Margin Recovery Ahead Of Plans; Encouraging Preliminary Fy 27 Guidance

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:EL delivered stronger-than-expected results with organic sales growing 2% and adjusted operating margin expanding 360 bps to 15.0%, due to PRGP benefits tracking above expectations. The company raised FY 26 (Jun.) guidance to ~3% organic growth and 10.7%-11.0% adjusted operating margin, with a preliminary FY 27 view of 12.5%-13.0% margins validating the Beauty Reimagined transformation. The margin story is the key takeaway, with PRGP delivering results faster than anticipated and restructuring benefits raised to $1.0B-$1.2B from $0.8B-$1.0B. Management's FY 27 outlook implies 3%-5% organic growth dependent on prestige beauty recovery and China momentum. Fragrance led with 10% growth while Skin Care and Makeup remained flat, as mainland China grew 6% organically with share gains for the third consecutive quarter. The FY 27 margin outlook approaching 13% represents the primary catalyst, exceeding 12% consensus and marking meaningful progress toward restoring historical profitability.

$EL
US Markets

Stocks Mostly Up Pre-Bell as Investors Await More Corporate Earnings

The benchmark US stock measures were mostly pointing higher before the open Friday as investors await the week's final round of corporate earnings and track ongoing Middle East tensions, with no apparent signs of progress toward a peace deal between Washington and Tehran.The S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2% in premarket activity, while the Nasdaq was off 0.1%. The indexes finished Thursday's trading session in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging new closing highs.Oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are scheduled to release their latest quarterly results before the bell, along with Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Estee Lauder (EL), Moderna (MRNA), Magna International (MGA) and Newell Brands (NWL).Shares of Apple (AAPL) advanced 2.8% pre-bell as the iPhone maker's fiscal second-quarter results topped market estimates. Reddit (RDDT) climbed 16% after the social media platform recorded better-than-expected first-quarter results and issued an upbeat revenue outlook for the ongoing three-month period at the midpoint. Nvidia (NVDA) rebounded 0.4% following a 4.6% decline at the close of Thursday.President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the US will maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports, according to Bloomberg News. "Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible," Trump reportedly said. "So we'll see how long they hold out."Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, reportedly said Thursday that Iran will defend its nuclear and missile capabilities.West Texas Intermediate crude oil inclined 0.3% to $105.43 a barrel before the opening bell, while Brent increased 0.9% to $111.37.US economic growth fell short of Wall Street's expectations in the first quarter as spending slowed amid inflationary pressures, government data showed Thursday.Separate official data showed that inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index, accelerated in March to the fastest pace since mid-2022 as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices soaring.Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate nudging 0.1 basis point lower to 3.88% and the 10-year rate decreasing 0.8 basis point to 4.38%.Friday's economic calendar has the final Purchasing Managers' manufacturing index for April at 9:45 am ET, followed by the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for the same month at 10 am. The weekly Baker Hughes oil-and-gas rig count posts at 1 pm.Gold fell 1.1% to $4,578 per troy ounce, while bitcoin rose 1.1% to $77,248.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAPL$CL$CVX$EL$MGA$MRNA$NVDA$NWL$RDDT$XOM
Wire

Estee Lauder Q3 Likely to be Slightly Below Consensus, RBC Says

Estee Lauder's (EL) fiscal Q3 results are expected to be slightly below consensus due to external headwinds, RBC Capital Market said in a note on Wednesday. The results are due May 1.The report also said the company is expected to reiterate its full-year guidance given the wide top and bottom line ranges."We see a neutral risk to reward this quarter," the note said.On the ongoing Middle East conflict, the report said the impact is not expected to be "overwhelming" as its exposure to Israel and the Middle East is likely limited.Additionally, category trends in the US are largely resilient and the consumer environment has not significantly changed since the last earnings report, according to the note.RBC kept its outperform rating and a $111 price target.Price: $76.01, Change: $-1.09, Percent Change: -1.41%

$EL
Wire

Jefferies Adjusts Estee Lauder Price Target to $85 From $105, Maintains Hold Rating

Estee Lauder (EL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $96.73, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $75.91, Change: $-1.19, Percent Change: -1.55%

$EL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were lower late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) decreasing 0.8%.In sector news, Redbook US same-store sales rose 6.7% from a year earlier in the week ended April 18 after a 7% year-over-year increase in the previous week.In corporate news, T-Mobile's (TMUS) largest shareholder, Deutsche Telekom, is mulling a full combination with the US-based carrier in what would be the largest-ever public M&A deal, Bloomberg reported. T-Mobile shares were down 1.4%.Tractor Supply (TSCO) reported Q1 results that missed market projections amid a below-average performance of its companion animal product business. Its shares dropped past 12%.D.R. Horton's (DHI) fiscal Q2 results came in better than expected, although the homebuilder tempered its full-year revenue outlook. Its shares rose past 6%.Estee Lauder (EL) has hired JPMorgan (JPM) to come up with a financing package of about 5 billion euros ($5.88 billion) to fund its takeover of Puig, Spanish business newspaper Expansion reported Tuesday. Estee Lauder shares were down 3%.

$DHI$EL$TMUS$TSCO
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Ease in Afternoon Trading

Consumer stocks were lower Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) decreasing 0.2%.In sector news, Redbook US same-store sales rose by 6.7% from a year earlier in the week ended April 18 after a 7% year-over-year increase in the previous week. "Some retailers reported weaker year-over-year Easter sales, facing challenging comparisons to last year's pre-Easter shopping week in April," Redbook noted. Sales of home improvement items and outdoor merchandise picked up as spring began while household basics, food and consumables held steady.In corporate news, Tractor Supply (TSCO) reported Q1 results that missed Wall Street's projections amid a below-average performance of its companion animal product business. Its shares dropped past 10%.D.R. Horton's (DHI) fiscal Q2 results came in better than expected, although the homebuilder tempered its full-year revenue outlook. Its shares rose past 7%.Estee Lauder (EL) has hired JPMorgan (JPM) to come up with a financing package of about 5 billion euros ($5.88 billion) to fund its takeover of Puig, Spanish business newspaper Expansion reported Tuesday. Estee Lauder shares were down 1.4%.

$DHI$EL$TSCO

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