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Dollar General's Core Consumer Remains Resilient Despite Inflation Pressures, Truist Says
US Markets

Dollar General's Core Consumer Remains Resilient Despite Inflation Pressures, Truist Says

Dollar General's (DG) core lower- and middle-income consumers are under pressure amid sticky inflation and higher gas prices, but continue to show resilience, Truist Securities said in a Wednesday note.Dollar General's consumer base continues to be steady and manage budgets despite inflation and periods of stress, Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli said. Continued employment is a key factor driving this strength and shopping behavior, the analyst added."Most importantly, this customer is also still employed, which is the single biggest driver to shopping behavior, even as the recent drop in gas prices (if sustained) should also help at the margin," Ciccarelli wrote.Dollar General is also benefiting from "trade-in" activity from higher- and upper-middle-income shoppers, attracted by its value and convenience proposition, the brokerage said. Third-party delivery services are further expanding its reach, helping bring in more higher-income customers."While still a small part of the base, Dollar General's highest income customers are their fastest growing cohort," the note added.Dollar General remains "very comfortable" with its competitive pricing and positioning, Truist said, noting that its prices are within about 3%-5% of mass retailers like Walmart (WMT).The brokerage maintained its Hold rating and $114 price target on Dollar General.

$DASH$DG$UBER
Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook
US Markets

Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Wednesday, while the discount retailer trimmed its revenue expectations.The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to between $4.45 and $4.55 per share from $4.40 to $4.50 previously projected. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $4.44 per share.Ollie's revenue is pegged at $2.98 billion to $3 billion, compared with the prior outlook that called for $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion. Wall Street is modeling for $3 billion."We are cognizant of the state of the consumer right now," Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "They are prioritizing their spending around their needs and driving a little less if they can. Weather is still a bit of a lingering factor and we don't have the benefit of higher tax refunds to offset some of these pressures in the second quarter."Gasoline prices in the US have surged as the Iran war pushed crude oil costs higher due to the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), TJX (TJX) and Burlington Stores (BURL) recently raised their full-year earnings guidance.Shares of Ollie's rose 0.9% intraday Wednesday. The stock is down 27% so far this year.For the first quarter ended May 2, adjusted EPS rose to $0.91 from $0.75 a year earlier, ahead of the Street's $0.87 estimate. Sales jumped 14% to $658.9 million, but fell short of the FactSet consensus of $661.7 million.Comparable sales grew 1.7%, decelerating from the prior-year quarter's 2.6% rise but topping analysts' 1.6% growth view."Our comp target remains a positive 2% for the full fiscal year," Helm told analysts. "Our current trends are running below this level, primarily reflecting continued weather volatility and ongoing pressure on the lower income consumer."Wall Street expects Ollie's full-year comparable sales to increase 1.7%.Price: $79.44, Change: $+0.19, Percent Change: +0.24%

$BURL$DG$DLTR$OLLI$TJX
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Dollar General Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month target to $123 from $151, based on ~17x our FY 27 (Jan.) EPS estimate of $7.25 (raised from $7.21). Our FY 28 EPS estimate is lowered to $7.84 from $7.88. This compares with the stock's long-term average forward P/E of 18x. Despite a solid Apr-Q EPS beat and an increase to full-year EPS guidance, we maintain our Hold rating, as we see elevated risk in the back half of the year. Key concerns include ongoing pressure on low-income consumer spending, potential freight and fuel cost headwinds, and intensifying competition as peers increasingly lean on targeted promotions to drive value perception. We also note that the company's higher full-year EPS outlook was supported in part by a lower effective tax rate and better-than-expected Apr-Q results, suggesting the underlying operating outlook for the remainder of the year is largely unchanged. Comps also become more challenging in upcoming quarters, particularly on the gross margin line.

$DG
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were lower late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.6%.Redbook US same-store sales rose by 9% from a year earlier in the week ended May 30, the same pace as in the previous week.In corporate news, Uber (UBER) has placed usage caps on some AI-powered coding tools used by its staff to control costs after the company exceeded its AI budget earlier this year, Bloomberg reported. Uber shares were down 3.2%.Dollar General (DG) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday, while the discount retailer's fiscal Q1 bottom line topped estimates but revenue missed expectations. Its shares fell 3.5%.Victoria's Secret (VSXY) shares soared 47% after the lingerie retailer raised its full-year sales and earnings guidance.Signet Jewelers (SIG) raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday after posting fiscal Q1 results that topped Wall Street expectations, citing stronger holiday performance and early second-quarter momentum. Its shares rose 4%.

$DG$SIG$UBER$VSXY
Wire

Dollar General Posts 'Solid' Q1, Truist Says

Dollar General (DG) posted a "solid" Q1 performance, including a 2.0% growth in comparable sales, Truist said in a note Tuesday.The report said the firm is benefitting among others from trade-in activity by higher-income consumers, incremental sales from delivery business, and the comparable lift from remodels, while lower-income consumers remain under pressure.Truist analysts said they are "modestly" raising their 2026/2027 EPS estimates, partly from a lower tax rate."We think DG is "interesting" at current levels, but Walmart (WMT, Buy) competition + economic pressures on their core customer keep us cautious," the note said.Truist raised its price target to $114 from $109 while maintaining its hold rating.Price: $108.06, Change: $-1.88, Percent Change: -1.71%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Tuesday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were lower Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.5%.Redbook US same-store sales rose by 9% from a year earlier in the week ended May 30, the same pace as in the previous week.In corporate news, Dollar General (DG) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday, while the discount retailer's fiscal Q1 bottom line topped estimates but revenue missed expectations. Its shares were down 1.5%.Victoria's Secret (VSXY) shares soared 46% after the lingerie retailer raised its full-year sales and earnings guidance.Signet Jewelers (SIG) raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday after posting fiscal Q1 results that topped Wall Street expectations, citing stronger holiday performance and early second-quarter momentum. Its shares rose 2.9%.

$DG$SIG$VSXY
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were lower Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.3% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.4%.In corporate news, Dollar General (DG) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday, while the discount retailer's fiscal Q1 bottom line topped estimates but revenue missed expectations. Its shares were down 1.4%.

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Wire

Truist Securities Adjusts Dollar General Price Target to $114 From $109, Maintains Hold Rating

Dollar General (DG) has an average rating of Hold and mean price target of $137.67, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $108.66, Change: $-1.27, Percent Change: -1.16%

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Wire

Loop Capital Adjusts Dollar General Price Target to $115 From $110, Maintains Hold Rating

Dollar General (DG) has an average rating of Hold and mean price target of $137.67, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $107.86, Change: $-2.07, Percent Change: -1.88%

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Research

Research Alert: Dollar General: Slight Beat And Profit Raise Despite A Tough Macro

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:DG delivered an earnings beat in Apr-Q with EPS of $2.00 (+13%) exceeding consensus by $0.11, while revenue of $10.8B (+3.4%) missed by $25M. Same-store sales increased 2.0%, in line with consensus, led by 1.4% traffic growth and 0.5% basket increase, though marking the slowest pace in over a year, partly due to severe winter weather. The results highlight continued operational discipline and margin improvement despite a challenging consumer backdrop. Management raised FY 27 (Jan.) EPS guidance to $7.20-$7.45 (up $0.10) while maintaining its sales outlook of 3.7%-4.2% net sales growth and 2.2%-2.7% same-store sales growth. Gross margin expanded 65 bps to 31.6% due to higher inventory markups and continued shrink reduction, while operating margin improved 40 bps to 5.9%. The company remains committed to its real estate strategy with 4,730 projects planned. We were somewhat surprised by the guidance increase given still-weak consumer sentiment and potential headwinds from higher fuel and transportation costs.

$DG
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Tuesday

Consumer stocks were declining pre-bell Tuesday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) 0.1% lower and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.5%.Dollar General (DG) stock was up more than 4% after the company reported higher fiscal Q1 earnings and net sales.Signet Jewelers (SIG) shares were up more than 4% after the company posted higher fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings and sales, and raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS outlook.Oddity Tech (ODD) shares were down more than 23% after the company said it swung to a Q1 adjusted loss, as net revenue fell during the period, and projected up to a 30% decline in Q2 net revenue.

$DG$ODD$SIG$XLP$XLY
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were declining pre-bell Tuesday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) 0.1% lower and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.5%.Dollar General (DG) stock was up more than 5% after the company reported higher fiscal Q1 earnings and net sales.

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Dollar General Raises Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook Following Mixed First-Quarter Results
US Markets

Dollar General Raises Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook Following Mixed First-Quarter Results

Dollar General (DG) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday, while the discount retailer's fiscal first-quarter bottom line topped estimates but revenue missed expectations.The company now expects per-share earnings to come in between $7.20 and $7.45 for fiscal 2026, up from its previous guidance of $7.10 to $7.35. The current consensus on FactSet is for $7.24. The stock gained 4.6% in the most recent premarket activity.Dollar General continues to project sales to grow by 3.7% to 4.2% for the ongoing fiscal year and same-store sales to increase by 2.2% to 2.7%. The Street is looking for sales of $44.39 billion and same-store sales growth of 2.4%."We believe the essential nature of our offering and our expansive footprint position us well to navigate the current macroeconomic environment," Chief Executive Todd Vasos said in a statement. "Overall, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on the goals outlined in our long-term financial framework, while creating sustainable long-term shareholder value."Dollar General reported sales of $10.79 billion for the quarter ended May 1, up from $10.44 billion the year before, but below the average analyst estimate for $10.82 billion. EPS improved 12% to $2, ahead of the Street's view for $1.89."We are pleased with our first-quarter EPS performance, which exceeded our expectations as strong operating margin expansion more than offset the impact of severe winter weather and higher fuel costs," according to Vasos. "Our topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth, while continued progress on our key initiatives drove another quarter of strong operating profit growth."Same-store sales inclined 2%, in line with the Street's estimate. The metric was buoyed by gains of 1.4% and 0.5% in customer traffic and average transaction amount, respectively. Same-store sales grew in each of the consumables, seasonal, home products and apparel categories, according to the company.Gross profit as a percentage of sales rose by 65 basis points year over year to 31.6% in the quarter, boosted mainly by lower shrink and inventory damages, as well as higher inventory markups, Dollar General said.In an emailed client note, Truist Securities said it has a "cautious" view on the company due to its exposure to pressured low and middle-income consumers, as well as competition from Walmart (WMT). The brokerage has a hold rating on the retailer's stock.Last week, fellow discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on the back of better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.

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Stocks Down Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Peace Talks
US Markets

Stocks Down Pre-Bell Amid Uncertainty Over US-Iran Peace Talks

The benchmark US stock measures were tracking in the red before the opening bell Tuesday amid uncertainty over the status of peace talks between the US and Iran.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged down 0.1% each in premarket activity, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.2%. All three indexes logged new closing highs in the previous trading session.In a social media post on Monday, President Donald Trump said that talks with Iran were continuing "at a rapid pace." The post came after Trump told CNBC in an interview earlier on Monday that he "couldn't care less" if negotiations with Tehran failed.Iranian state-affiliated outlet Tasnim reportedly said Monday that the country suspended talks with Washington in retaliation to Israel's military action in Lebanon. In a separate social media post, Trump said he spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran-backed Hezbollah representatives, with both agreeing to stop the fighting."These shifting conditions alongside continued kinetic skirmishes between the parties are likely to further erode Iranian trust as officials have already cited the fluidity of priorities as a point of friction with Iran making clear that nuclear dialogue is contingent on successful negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz," Tudor Pickering Holt said in a note on Monday.West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 1.2% to $91.06 a barrel before the opening bell, while Brent decreased 1.1% to $93.90.Tuesday's thin economic calendar has the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April at 10 am ET. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack is scheduled to speak at 8:30 am.Treasury yields were down in premarket action, with the two-year rate retreating 3.9 basis points to 4.01% and the 10-year rate falling 4.7 basis points to 4.43%.Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) jumped 24% pre-bell after the company finished Monday trading with a 7% gain. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rose 26% as the information technology firm lifted its full-year outlook and reported stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results.Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) class A and C shares declined more than 2% each as the Google parent disclosed plans to raise $80 billion in equity for artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion.Dollar General (DG), Donaldson (DCI), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) and Signet Jewelers (SIG) report their latest financial results before the bell, among others. Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and GitLab (GTLB) post earnings after the markets close.Gold gained 1.2% to $4,561 per troy ounce, while bitcoin dropped 2.7% to $69,539.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$DCI$DG$GOOG$GOOGL$GTLB$HPE$MRVL$PANW$SIG$ULTA$VSCO
Asia Markets

US Equity Investors to Focus on Labor Market Data and Trump's Decision on Framework to End Iran War This Week

US equity investors will focus this week on the labor market data while keeping an eye on another mega-cap chipmaker's quarterly earnings and President Donald Trump's decision on a framework to end the Iran war.* The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the market forecasting an expansion of 95,000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Payrolls increased 115,000 in April, surpassing the 65,000 gain expected, and marking the first back-to-back months of positive job creation since May 2025, according to a note from Stifel. Payrolls increased 178,000 in March, above the 65,000 jump expected and marking the largest monthly gain since December 2024, the note said.* Other macroeconomic data due this week includes the ISM manufacturing and services purchasing manager's indexes, JOLTS job openings, ADP nonfarm employment change, and initial jobless claims.* Quarterly earnings on the tap this week include Broadcom (AVGO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Dollar General (DG), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Planet Labs (PL).* The US said it struck Iranian military sites at the weekend and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday it had targeted a U.S. base in response, Reuters reported early Monday. The weekend US strikes on Iran's Gulf coast were in response to "aggressive Iranian actions that included the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters," the US Central Command said in a post on X.* Meanwhile, Israeli forces have captured a strategically important fortress, marking the country's deepest incursion into Lebanon in more than a quarter of a century, SKY News reported early Monday.* Early Monday, Brent crude futures jumped 3.7% to $94.53, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged 4.3% to $91.09. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 1.8 basis points to 4.47% and the two-year higher by 2.6 basis points to 4.04%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AVGO$CRWD$DG$HPE$PANW$PL
Wire

Dollar General Could Guide Conservatively Amid Cost Headwinds, Economic Pressure on Consumers, Oppenheimer Says

Dollar General (DG) it is expected to deliver Q1 in-line with Street estimates and potentially issue more conservative guidance amid the current economic environment facing consumers, Oppenheimer said Friday.Dollar General is set to report Q1 results on Tuesday.Shares of Dollar General are down 17% year-to-date versus a 10% gain in the S&P 500. For long-term investors, this offers an attractive buying opportunity, though volatility is likely to persist with more challenging comparisons just ahead, according to the note.The brokerage expects Q1 results to be in line with consensus forecasts for EPS of $1.89 and 2% comparable sales growth, with higher energy prices potentially limiting upside in the quarter.Given new cost headwinds and rising pressures on the lower-end consumer, the brokerage believes Dollar General could guide toward the lower end of its full-year 2026 outlook.Oppenheimer adjusted its forecast to reflect this environment as well as a higher tax rate in 2027. Its base case still assumes double-digit EPS growth in 2027, the brokerage said.Oppenheimer kept an outperform rating on Dollar General with a price target of $150.Price: $109.27, Change: $-0.63, Percent Change: -0.57%

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Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says
US Markets

Dollar General, Dollar Tree Face Mounting Pressures Amid Macro Headwinds, Deutsche Bank Says

Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) face growing challenges amid mounting energy costs and a tough pricing environment, Deutsche Bank said in a Wednesday note.Dollar Tree is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on Thursday, followed by Dollar General on June 2. Both discount retailers have lost more than 20% each in value so far this year."While it's been a rough few months for shares of (Dollar General) and (Dollar Tree), we are incrementally more cautious not only on the low-end consumer ... but also these models' ability to absorb/mitigate rising energy costs at a time consumers seek affordability," Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai said.Gasoline and crude oil prices have surged due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating on Dollar General to hold from buy, and lowered the price target to $110 from $170.Shares of Dollar General "may be unable to outperform this year as numerous headwinds impact results," Katai said.The biggest challenge is for Dollar General to expand gross margin amid diesel cost pressures, at a time of "a sharp food retail pricing environment" led by major retailers Walmart (WMT), Kroger (KR), and Target (TGT), Katai said.Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Dollar Tree, with a price target of $99.While discretionary reads have been favorable, Dollar Tree is "at risk of losing share given value perception challenges with the rapid expansion of multi-price, and increased reliance on holidays/occasions to drive traffic/sales," Katai said. "Moreover, this plays out against a backdrop of rising costs."Price: $104.95, Change: $+1.34, Percent Change: +1.29%

$DG$DLTR$KR$TGT$WMT
Wire

Dollar General Poised to Meet Market's Bar for Comparable Sales Growth in Q1, UBS Says

Dollar General (DG) is expected to meet the market's bar for 2% comparable sales growth in Q1, with the company likely to point out that the quarter started out slow due to the impact of the storms early in the three-month period, UBS said in a note emailed Wednesday.With regard to its guidance, the company is expected to reiterate its full year comp guidance of 2.2% to 2.7%, UBS said. Additionally, Dollar General could bump up the low end of its EPS guidance of $7.10 to $7.35, as a show of conviction in its forecast, according to the note.The company will reiterate its opportunity to realize its long-term operating margin guidance of 6% to 7%, UBS said, adding that it is forecasting a 5.3% operating margin this year, 5.7% in 2027, and 5.9% in 2028.UBS noted that Dollar General is beginning to see meaningful tailwinds from newer businesses like e-commerce and retail media, with e-commerce potentially accounting for 20% to 25% of comp growth looking ahead.Dollar General is scheduled to report its Q1 results on June 2.UBS maintained its buy rating with a $168 price target.Price: $105.52, Change: $+1.91, Percent Change: +1.84%

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Research

Deutsche Bank Downgrades Dollar General to Hold From Buy, Cuts Price Target to $110 From $170

Dollar General (DG) has an average rating of Hold and mean price target of $138.26, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Research

Gordon Haskett Downgrades Dollar General to Hold From Buy, Adjusts Price Target to $110 From $140

Dollar General (DG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $141.59, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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