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Wire

Dollar General Shares Rise After HSBC Upgrade

Dollar General (DG) shares rose over 2.4% in Thursday trading after HSBC upgraded the stock to buy from hold, and raised its price target to $160 per share from $125 earlier.Trading volume stood at about 871,083 shares, compared with a daily average of over 2.5 million.Price: $123.23, Change: $+2.63, Percent Change: +2.18%

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Research

HSBC Upgrades Dollar General to Buy From Hold, Adjusts Price Target to $160 From $125

Dollar General (DG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $141.41, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$DG
Wire

Dollar General, Instacart Agree on Same-Day Delivery Partnership

Dollar General (DG) and Maplebear (CART), which does business as Instacart, agreed on a new partnership to offer same-day delivery of Dollar General products through Instacart, the companies said Wednesday.No financial terms were disclosed.The delivery partnership will start with a pilot covering about 7,000 Dollar General and pOpshelf stores in six states over the coming weeks and potentially expand to around 20,000 stores across 48 states this fall, the companies added.Price: $120.72, Change: $-1.91, Percent Change: -1.56%

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Uneven Investor Sentiment Toward Hardline Retailers Could Persist Amid Macro Headwinds, UBS Says
US Markets

Uneven Investor Sentiment Toward Hardline Retailers Could Persist Amid Macro Headwinds, UBS Says

Investor sentiment toward US hardline retailers has become uneven and is likely to remain so unless macroeconomic headwinds dissipate, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Friday.Describing the prevailing mood as "a mix of apathy, caution, and chagrin," the brokerage said investors have become increasingly selective about hardline retail stocks amid a lack of long-term secular growth potential for the sector."Headlines surrounding affordability pressures, interest rates, inflation, labor market disruption, tariffs, freight costs, and geopolitical instability have created a backdrop that feels persistently unsettled," UBS analysts, including Michael Lasser, said in a note to clients. "As a result, many investors increasingly view the sector through a defensive lens rather than an aspirational one."Last month, official data showed that US inflation accelerated sequentially in July, while consumer spending growth eased. A University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment in the country dropped in August amid concerns that inflation will continue to be high for the "foreseeable future."Dollar stores have seen an acceleration recently, while retail giant Walmart (WMT) and Costco Wholesale (COST) have seen a "moderation," sparking renewed debate about changing consumer behavior, UBS said."Investors continue to monitor credit card delinquencies, wealth effects tied to equity markets, and fuel prices as key variables that could shape spending patterns over the next several quarters," the analysts wrote.Walmart seems to be undergoing "a gradual regeneration" of its shareholder base, according to the brokerage. "The prevailing view is that the stock may remain range-bound near term as investors wait for proof that the most compelling elements of the investment thesis can translate into tangible financial outcomes," the analysts said.Costco's latest sales data reignited debate over whether the warehouse chain's recent performance reflects "continued deceleration or the early stages of stabilization," UBS said."Bulls remain focused on traffic growth, membership engagement, and the enduring strength of Costco's flywheel," the analysts wrote. "Skeptics question whether the stock can continue to command its premium valuation if the business settles into a slightly lower long-term comp framework."Following a few quarters of mid-single-digit comparable sales growth at Target (TGT), the investor discussion has moved to debating the retailer's long-term earnings potential from questioning the business' relevance, according to the note.Walmart, Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), Home Depot (HD), and Tractor Supply (TSCO) are generally seen as tariff refund beneficiaries, while Target, Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Five Below (FIVE) are "more commonly" viewed as the companies on the other end of the spectrum, UBS said."This distinction may become increasingly important as investors begin to focus on the anniversary of these benefits and their second- and third-order implications for margins, pricing strategies, and earnings growth moving into next year," the analysts said.Price: $107.27, Change: $-1.15, Percent Change: -1.06%

$BBY$COST$DG$DLTR$FIVE$HD$TGT$TSCO$WMT$WSM
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Cuts Sales Outlook as Second-Quarter Revenue Misses Views
US Markets

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Cuts Sales Outlook as Second-Quarter Revenue Misses Views

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) lowered its full-year sales outlook on Wednesday as the discount retailer's fiscal second-quarter revenue fell short of market estimates amid weather headwinds and economic pressure on consumers.The company now expects sales between $2.93 billion and $2.94 billion for fiscal 2026, down from its previous guidance of $2.98 billion to $3 billion. Comparable store sales are pegged to be flat to up 0.5%, compared with the prior forecast that called for about 2% growth.The FactSet-polled consensus is for revenue of $2.96 billion and same-store sales to increase by 0.6%."We have updated our second half sales assumptions to better align with recent sales trends and the current environment," Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "While our outlook reflects a more measured view of the near term, our confidence in the long term growth opportunity remains unchanged."Adjusted earnings are expected in a range of $4.57 to $4.65 for the ongoing fiscal year, up from the retailer's previous outlook of $4.45 to $4.55. The Street is looking for non-GAAP EPS of $4.42.The outlook includes tariff refunds of $28.3 million received during the second quarter, which it plans to deploy in pricing. Last month, Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised their full-year earnings outlooks as the discount retailers' bottom-lines benefitted from tariff refunds.Shares of Ollie's were up 5% in Wednesday trade, although the stock has lost 31% so far this year.For the quarter ended Aug. 1, Ollie's revenue rose 9.1% to $741.3 million, but fell short of the average analyst estimate of $747.7 million. Comparable sales fell 1.8%, driven by a drop in average basket size. The same store sales print followed a 5% gain in the prior-year quarter and was worse than a 1.1% decline modeled by analysts."We believe our sales results were negatively impacted by the combination of less favorable weather, continued economic pressure on the consumer, and an elevated promotional environment, which all led to a more challenging backdrop than we originally expected," Chief Executive Eric van der Valk said in the earnings release.Ollie's attributed the same-store sales decline to lower ticket, rather than traffic, Truist Securities said in a Wednesday client note. That appears to contradict what other retailers have experienced in recent months, Truist said.The brokerage had previously assumed that high gas prices may have contributed to an expected comparable sales deceleration. Last week, UBS Securities said it expected Ollie's second-quarter same-store sales to have been pressured by higher fuel prices.The retailer's adjusted EPS jumped to $1.42 in the quarter from $0.99 year over year, surpassing the Street's expectations for $1.12.Price: $75.40, Change: $+3.05, Percent Change: +4.22%

$DG$DLTR$OLLI
Wire

Dollar General's Fiscal Q2 Shows Sustainable Turnaround Momentum, UBS Says

Dollar General's (DG) fiscal Q2 results provided "credible evidence" that its turnaround can be sustained, with healthier traffic, broader category growth and improved core margins supporting a bullish outlook, UBS Securities said in a report Friday.Comparable sales rose 3.5%, driven by a 2% increase in traffic and a 1.5% rise in ticket. All four merchandising categories posted positive comparable sales for a sixth straight quarter, while underlying earnings remained strong even after excluding the benefit from tariff-related refunds.The fiscal Q2 results point to "better execution," continued trade-in, particularly among the highest-income shoppers, a "healthier discretionary" mix, and ongoing supply-chain and shrink gains.Dollar General also raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 4% to 4.3%, same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 2.9% and earnings per share of $7.80 to $8. The revised EPS range compares with UBS's estimate of $7.95 and consensus of $7.54, according to the report.The investment firm said Dollar General is entering fiscal 2027 with stronger "core earnings power" despite tougher comparisons and the absence of the one-time refund benefit.UBS kept its $168 price target on the company, with a buy rating.Shares of the company were down 2.7% in Friday afternoon trading.Price: $122.51, Change: $-3.39, Percent Change: -2.69%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Fall Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks declined late Thursday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) falling 1.4% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) dropping 1.1%.In corporate news, Hormel Foods (HRL) lowered its fiscal 2026 sales outlook after reporting mixed Q3 results with sales falling amid soft consumer demand. The stock slumped 10%.Celsius Holdings (CELH) shares fell 6.1% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy and raised its price target to $35 from $30.Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised their full-year earnings outlooks as the discount retailers' earnings benefited from tariff refunds in fiscal Q2. Dollar General shares rose 2.9%, and Dollar Tree fell 3.2%.Unilever (UL) hired Rothschild to market its 212-year-old Colman's mustard brand as it seeks to address potential competition concerns from the planned combination of its food business with McCormick (MKC), Sky News reported. Unilever shares fell 0.7%.

$CELH$DG$DLTR$HRL$UL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Thursday Afternoon

Consumer stocks were lower Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.9% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.8%.In corporate news, Hormel Foods (HRL) lowered its fiscal 2026 sales outlook on Thursday as it reported mixed Q3 results, with the top line pressured amid a challenging consumer environment. Its shares fell past 9%.Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised their full-year earnings outlooks on Thursday as the discount retailers' bottom-lines benefitted from tariff refunds in the fiscal Q2. Dollar General shares rose past 4%, and Dollar Tree was down 3.3%.Unilever (UL) has hired Rothschild to market its 212-year-old Colman's mustard brand as it seeks to address potential competition concerns from the planned combination of its food business with McCormick (MKC), Sky News reported. Unilever shares were shedding 0.5%.

$DG$DLTR$HRL$UL
Dollar General, Dollar Tree Raise Earnings Outlook as Tariff Refunds Boost Quarterly Bottom-Lines
US Markets

Dollar General, Dollar Tree Raise Earnings Outlook as Tariff Refunds Boost Quarterly Bottom-Lines

Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) raised their full-year earnings outlooks on Thursday as the discount retailers' bottom-lines benefitted from tariff refunds in the fiscal second quarter.Dollar General now anticipates earnings between $7.80 and $8 per share for fiscal 2026, up from $7.20 to $7.45 previously expected. The current consensus on FactSet is for EPS of $7.39. The stock rose 4.7% in Thursday trade.Revenue is expected to grow by 4% to 4.3% for the ongoing fiscal year, compared with the prior guidance that called for an increase of 3.7% to 4.2%. Same-store sales are seen rising 2.5% to 2.9% versus the previous outlook for a 2.2% to 2.7% gain. The Street is looking for revenue to rise by 4% and same-store sales to rise by 2.4%.For the three months through July, Dollar General's EPS jumped 33% year over year to $2.48. The result included a tariff refund-related benefit of about $0.25 per share, the retailer said.Sales improved 5.2% to $11.29 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $11.2 billion. Same-store sales were up 3.5%, ahead of the market's estimate that called for growth of 2.6%, buoyed by gains in customer traffic and average transaction amount."Our results reflect continued momentum across the business, including our fifth consecutive quarter of customer traffic growth and the sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales growth across all four merchandising categories," Chief Executive Todd Vasos said in a statement.Oppenheimer expected Dollar General to report robust quarterly results "with continued broad-based category momentum," according to a client note sent earlier in the weekSeparately, Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $7.70 to $8.05, including a $0.60 benefit from tariff-related refunds. It previously expected EPS of $6.70 to $7.10. The consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $7.07.The retailer continues to project sales between $20.5 billion and $20.7 billion for the ongoing fiscal year, with comparable sales growth of 3% to 4%. The Street expects sales of $20.64 billion and same-store sales growth of 3.5%.For the quarter ended Aug. 1, Dollar Tree's adjusted EPS surged to $2.70 from $0.77 the year before, driven by a tariff refund benefit of $1.31. Analysts were estimating non-GAAP EPS of $1.15.Overall revenue improved 7% to $4.89 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $4.86 billion. Same-store net sales rose 3.7% amid gains in average ticket, while the market expected a 3.2% rise."Positive traffic trends helped drive strong comparable sales growth and EPS exceeded the high end of our outlook," according to CEO Mike Creedon.Dollar Tree forecasts EPS of $0.80 to $0.95 on a sales range of $5 billion to $5.1 billion for the ongoing quarter. The Street is looking for GAAP EPS of $1.37 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.40 on sales of $5.04 billion. Comparable store sales are forecast to grow by 3% to 4%, while the market's current view is for a gain of 3.6%.Shares of the company rose 4% intraday Thursday.Price: $128.04, Change: $+5.24, Percent Change: +4.26%

$DG$DLTR
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, Equity Futures Mixed Pre-Bell Thursday Ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.6%, and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 1% higher in Thursday's premarket activity, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.US stock futures were mixed, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipping 0.01%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 1% before the start of regular trading.US initial jobless claims fell to a level of 203,000 in the week ended Aug. 22 from an upwardly revised 207,000 level in the previous week, in contrast with expectations for an increase to 208,000 in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:40 am ET.The US advance international trade in goods deficit widened to $118.81 billion in July from $101.41 billion in June, according to data released by the US Census Bureau.Weekly natural gas stocks will be released at 10:30 am ET, followed by the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing reading for August at 11 am ET.In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 1.2%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 1.4% higher, Ether ETF (EETH) advanced 1.4%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) increased 0.4%.Power Play:ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was down 0.5%, the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) retreated 0.6%, and the iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was inactive. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) lost 0.4%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was inactive.Dollar General (DG) shares were up more than 10% pre-bell after the company reported higher fiscal Q2 earnings and revenue.Winners and Losers:TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) gained 2%, the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 0.8% higher, and the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 0.7%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) advanced 2.3%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 2.8%.Nvidia (NVDA) stock was 7% higher after the company posted overnight higher fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.5%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 0.6%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) slipped 0.01%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 0.3% lower.Moderna (MRNA) stock was down more than 4% premarket after the company said it plans to offer $2 billion worth of convertible senior notes due 2032 in a private placement.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) retreated 0.7%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was down 1.8%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 1.8% higher.Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) shares were up 4% in early hours activity after the company reported fiscal 2026 net income Thursday of $305.5 million.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 0.4%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.1% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.GE Vernova (GEV) stock was up more than 2% before the opening bell after the company said it will deliver a new 400-kV gas-insulated switchgear substation in Chesterfield, England, for National Grid projects.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was inactive, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was up by 0.1%.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained by 0.2% to reach $82.37 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas was up 1.9% at $2.90 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) increased 0.6%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.4% higher.Gold futures for November were down by 0.1% at $4,647.60 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures gained 0.3% to reach $69.02 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) decreased 0.2%, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was 0.2% lower.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BETH$BITO$DG$EEM$EETH$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GEV$GLD$IBB$IGM$IGV$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$MRNA$NVDA$PMR$PURR$QQQ$RTH$SLV$SOXX$SPY$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Lean Lower Premarket Thursday

Consumer stocks were leaning lower premarket Thursday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.5% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) declining by 0.4%.Dollar General (DG) stock was up more than 8% after the company reported higher fiscal Q2 earnings and net sales, and raised its fiscal 2026 outlook.Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares were down more than 6% after the company set fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings per share guidance that fell short of analysts' estimates.Burlington Stores (BURL) stock was down more than 4% after the company issued fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings per share outlook below analysts' expectations.

$BURL$DG$DLTR$XLP$XLY
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were leaning lower premarket Thursday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.6% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) declining by 0.4%.Dollar General (DG) stock was up more than 7% after the company reported higher fiscal Q2 earnings and net sales, and raised its fiscal 2026 outlook.

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Stocks Mostly Up Pre-Bell as Traders Parse Nvidia Results, Await Fed Chair's Speech
US Markets

Stocks Mostly Up Pre-Bell as Traders Parse Nvidia Results, Await Fed Chair's Speech

US equity markets were mostly trending higher before the opening bell Thursday as traders digest Nvidia's (NVDA) latest financial results and prepare for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday.The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq increased 1% in premarket activity, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.1%. The three main indexes finished the previous trading session lower, with the Dow snapping a three-day winning streak.Shares of Nvidia jumped 6.9% pre-bell as the tech bellwether's fiscal second-quarter results more than doubled from a year ago and topped Wall Street expectations amid record data center sales.CrowdStrike (CRWD) climbed 9.3% as the firm lifted its full-year net new annual recurring revenue outlook amid increasing demand for cybersecurity to address risks associated with the adoption of artificial intelligence. Salesforce (CRM) spiked 11% after raising its fiscal 2027 guidance.Dollar General (DG) shares gained nearly 13% after the discount retailer beat Wall Street estimates for the fiscal second quarter. Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares fell over 4% after the company's latest quarterly earnings.The Fed's annual economic policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to kick off on Thursday, with Warsh scheduled to speak on Friday.Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 64% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its benchmark lending rate steady next month, with the remaining odds in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Government data on Wednesday showed that US inflation accelerated sequentially in July, keeping the Fed's preferred gauge for price increases well above its 2% target, while consumer spending growth eased."As long as the month-on-month rate continues to come in close to 0.2%, the annual rate of inflation will converge on 2% over time, but the question is how much more patience the Fed actually has," ING Bank said in a Wednesday report. "Markets continue to price a (25 basis point) rate hike before year-end while economists, in general, still favor an extended pause for policy rates."Treasury yields were up in premarket action, with the two- and 10-year rates each inclining 0.6 basis points to 4.23% and 4.67%, respectively.Iran and Oman are working on finalizing a deal that will see both countries share control of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.Tehran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly told state news agency Tasnim that the US is obstructing the Iran-Oman deal, according to a CNBC report. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani is reportedly traveling to Iran on Thursday as part of efforts to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran.West Texas Intermediate crude oil dipped 0.1% to $82.17 a barrel before the open, while Brent nudged 0.4% higher to $88.18.Burlington Stores (BURL), Best Buy (BBY) and Hormel Foods (HRL) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings before the bell, among others. Marvell Technology (MRVL), Workday (WDAY) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) post their results after the markets close.Thursday's economic calendar has the international trade in goods data, as well as the retail and wholesale inventories reports, all for July, at 8:30 am ET, along with the weekly jobless claims bulletin. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for August is out at 11 am.Gold declined 0.6% to $4,654.79 per troy ounce, while bitcoin gained nearly 2% to $79,982.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BBY$BURL$CRM$CRWD$DG$DLTR$HRL$MRVL$NVDA$ULTA$WDAY
Wire

Dollar General Q2 Results Likely to Show Broad-Based Momentum, Oppenheimer Says

Dollar General (DG) is expected to deliver another strong quarter when it reports fiscal Q2 results on Thursday, with comparable-store sales growth of at least 2.5%, Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note.The brokerage said the company's top-line momentum should remain supported by management initiatives and trade-in, while Street estimates for a 2.6% increase in comparable-store sales and earnings per share of $2.01 appear achievable.According to the report, management is expected to reaffirm its fiscal 2026 targets rather than raise them, as higher fuel costs could limit upside. The company maintained its sales outlook last quarter while raising its EPS forecast, partly due to a lower tax rate.Oppenheimer maintained its outperform rating on the stock with a price target of $150.Shares of Dollar General were down 1.9% in Tuesday trading.Price: $123.03, Change: $-2.30, Percent Change: -1.84%

$DG
TJX Poised for In-Line Second-Quarter Earnings Amid 'Ok' Sales Momentum, UBS Says
US Markets

TJX Poised for In-Line Second-Quarter Earnings Amid 'Ok' Sales Momentum, UBS Says

TJX (TJX) is expected to post fiscal second-quarter earnings in line with Wall Street's estimates amid "Ok" sales momentum, likely prompting the off-price retailer to raise its full-year outlook, UBS Securities said Tuesday.The brokerage expects the parent of TJ Maxx and Marshalls to log earnings of $1.19 a share for the quarter when it reports results Aug. 19. That would match the Street's views and be above the company's own guidance range of $1.15 to $1.17. UBS projects revenue at $15.16 billion, reflecting roughly 2.4% comparable sales growth and benefit from 145 net store openings over the last 12 months."We believe TJX had Ok sales momentum through July, and we believe this sets TJX up to deliver an in-line (second-quarter) EPS report," UBS analysts, including Jay Sole, said in a note to clients. "We expect sales growth to be strong across all banners."This could prompt TJX to lift its fiscal 2027 EPS guidance to between $5.10 and $5.17 from its current outlook range of $5.08 to $5.15, according to the note. The Street is looking for $5.23."Google data highlights TJX's US search growth trends accelerating (quarter over quarter), particularly for HomeGoods," the analysts said. "We view these as positive signals for HomeGoods' sales growth trends leading into (the third quarter)."For the ongoing quarter, TJX is expected to "maintain its habit of providing beatable quarterly guidance" and provide an EPS estimate of $1.30 to $1.32, compared with the Street's $1.35 view, UBS said."Our conversations with investors indicate they view TJX as having the best combination of defensiveness and growth among softlines stocks," the analysts wrote. "While TJX probably doesn't deliver great Marmaxx division (second-quarter) comp growth, we don't believe this will change the market's TJX thesis."Overall, UBS sees TJX's sales growing at a 7.5% compound annual growth rate through 2030, driven by store expansion and market share gains. "We believe this should drive solid (mid-single-digit percentage) comp sales growth," the analysts said.Discount retailers Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) are scheduled to report their respective fiscal second-quarter results Aug. 27.Price: $156.43, Change: $-2.39, Percent Change: -1.50%

$DG$DLTR$TJX
Dollar General's Core Consumer Remains Resilient Despite Inflation Pressures, Truist Says
US Markets

Dollar General's Core Consumer Remains Resilient Despite Inflation Pressures, Truist Says

Dollar General's (DG) core lower- and middle-income consumers are under pressure amid sticky inflation and higher gas prices, but continue to show resilience, Truist Securities said in a Wednesday note.Dollar General's consumer base continues to be steady and manage budgets despite inflation and periods of stress, Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli said. Continued employment is a key factor driving this strength and shopping behavior, the analyst added."Most importantly, this customer is also still employed, which is the single biggest driver to shopping behavior, even as the recent drop in gas prices (if sustained) should also help at the margin," Ciccarelli wrote.Dollar General is also benefiting from "trade-in" activity from higher- and upper-middle-income shoppers, attracted by its value and convenience proposition, the brokerage said. Third-party delivery services are further expanding its reach, helping bring in more higher-income customers."While still a small part of the base, Dollar General's highest income customers are their fastest growing cohort," the note added.Dollar General remains "very comfortable" with its competitive pricing and positioning, Truist said, noting that its prices are within about 3%-5% of mass retailers like Walmart (WMT).The brokerage maintained its Hold rating and $114 price target on Dollar General.

$DASH$DG$UBER
Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook
US Markets

Ollie's Bargain Lifts Full-Year Earnings Guide, Trims Revenue Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Wednesday, while the discount retailer trimmed its revenue expectations.The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to between $4.45 and $4.55 per share from $4.40 to $4.50 previously projected. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $4.44 per share.Ollie's revenue is pegged at $2.98 billion to $3 billion, compared with the prior outlook that called for $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion. Wall Street is modeling for $3 billion."We are cognizant of the state of the consumer right now," Chief Financial Officer Robert Helm said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "They are prioritizing their spending around their needs and driving a little less if they can. Weather is still a bit of a lingering factor and we don't have the benefit of higher tax refunds to offset some of these pressures in the second quarter."Gasoline prices in the US have surged as the Iran war pushed crude oil costs higher due to the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), TJX (TJX) and Burlington Stores (BURL) recently raised their full-year earnings guidance.Shares of Ollie's rose 0.9% intraday Wednesday. The stock is down 27% so far this year.For the first quarter ended May 2, adjusted EPS rose to $0.91 from $0.75 a year earlier, ahead of the Street's $0.87 estimate. Sales jumped 14% to $658.9 million, but fell short of the FactSet consensus of $661.7 million.Comparable sales grew 1.7%, decelerating from the prior-year quarter's 2.6% rise but topping analysts' 1.6% growth view."Our comp target remains a positive 2% for the full fiscal year," Helm told analysts. "Our current trends are running below this level, primarily reflecting continued weather volatility and ongoing pressure on the lower income consumer."Wall Street expects Ollie's full-year comparable sales to increase 1.7%.Price: $79.44, Change: $+0.19, Percent Change: +0.24%

$BURL$DG$DLTR$OLLI$TJX
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Dollar General Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month target to $123 from $151, based on ~17x our FY 27 (Jan.) EPS estimate of $7.25 (raised from $7.21). Our FY 28 EPS estimate is lowered to $7.84 from $7.88. This compares with the stock's long-term average forward P/E of 18x. Despite a solid Apr-Q EPS beat and an increase to full-year EPS guidance, we maintain our Hold rating, as we see elevated risk in the back half of the year. Key concerns include ongoing pressure on low-income consumer spending, potential freight and fuel cost headwinds, and intensifying competition as peers increasingly lean on targeted promotions to drive value perception. We also note that the company's higher full-year EPS outlook was supported in part by a lower effective tax rate and better-than-expected Apr-Q results, suggesting the underlying operating outlook for the remainder of the year is largely unchanged. Comps also become more challenging in upcoming quarters, particularly on the gross margin line.

$DG
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were lower late Tuesday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.6%.Redbook US same-store sales rose by 9% from a year earlier in the week ended May 30, the same pace as in the previous week.In corporate news, Uber (UBER) has placed usage caps on some AI-powered coding tools used by its staff to control costs after the company exceeded its AI budget earlier this year, Bloomberg reported. Uber shares were down 3.2%.Dollar General (DG) raised its full-year earnings outlook on Tuesday, while the discount retailer's fiscal Q1 bottom line topped estimates but revenue missed expectations. Its shares fell 3.5%.Victoria's Secret (VSXY) shares soared 47% after the lingerie retailer raised its full-year sales and earnings guidance.Signet Jewelers (SIG) raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday after posting fiscal Q1 results that topped Wall Street expectations, citing stronger holiday performance and early second-quarter momentum. Its shares rose 4%.

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Wire

Dollar General Posts 'Solid' Q1, Truist Says

Dollar General (DG) posted a "solid" Q1 performance, including a 2.0% growth in comparable sales, Truist said in a note Tuesday.The report said the firm is benefitting among others from trade-in activity by higher-income consumers, incremental sales from delivery business, and the comparable lift from remodels, while lower-income consumers remain under pressure.Truist analysts said they are "modestly" raising their 2026/2027 EPS estimates, partly from a lower tax rate."We think DG is "interesting" at current levels, but Walmart (WMT, Buy) competition + economic pressures on their core customer keep us cautious," the note said.Truist raised its price target to $114 from $109 while maintaining its hold rating.Price: $108.06, Change: $-1.88, Percent Change: -1.71%

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