Target Likely to Post Strong First-Quarter Comparable Sales Growth, UBS Says
Target (TGT) is expected to post strong fiscal first-quarter comparable sales growth, indicating a "cleaner" setup into the year for the retailer, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Tuesday.The market is anticipating Target's first-quarter comparable sales growth of 4% to 5%, ahead of the company's projections and the consensus view for an increase of about 1%, according to the brokerage. The company's comparable sales in the quarter grew 3.9%, UBS said in a note to clients, citing Bloomberg Second Measure data."Despite a tumultuous last few years, (Target's) recovery in 2026 is off to a promising start," UBS analysts, including Michael Lasser, said. "Many of last year's headwinds are now rolling off, including the impact from boycotts, one-time tariff costs, and elevated markdown activity.""As a result, the setup into 2026 is cleaner," the analysts wrote.Target is scheduled to report results May 20.The company is also reaping gains from its transformation initiatives that include streamlining operations and improving merchandising relevance, according to UBS.Based on recent traffic trends, Target may be outperforming both Walmart (WMT) and Costco Wholesale (COST) on a year-over-year basis, though against "much easier" comparisons, the analysts said."In essence, we think the company will report $0.30 to $0.40 of (earnings-per-share) upside in (the first quarter)," the analysts wrote. Target is expected to pass this through to its full-year bottom-line outlook, bringing the updated range to $7.85 to $8.85 from $7.50 to $8.50, according to the note.While the company's turnaround plan seemed to have impressed investors, as its shares have advanced more that 20% so far this year, UBS still sees "significant more potential" for the stock.The brokerage outlined what it called "three elements of the upside case.""First, there is potential for comp outperformance that is not fully reflected in expectations," the analysts said. "Second, if that outperformance materializes, it should translate into better flow-through on margins. And third, we think there's room for the multiple to run higher."Price: $121.50, Change: $+3.06, Percent Change: +2.58%
