Origin Energy to Benefit From Higher LNG Prices on Middle East Conflict, Jefferies Lifts Estimates
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) is set to benefit from higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, with average core profit expected to rise by 6.3% over the next three years, Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday.Origin's 27.5% stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) positions the company well, as the investment firm raises assumptions for benchmark JKM spot prices by 43.7% to $14.5 in fiscal 2027 and $12.1 in fiscal 2028.The upside, however, is partly challenged by hedging and legacy contracts to deliver 30 cargoes over 2025 to 2029.Jefferies increased EBITDA estimates for APLNG by 3.3% to AU$5.33 billion in fiscal 2026 and by 25.6% to $5.76 billion in 2027.An increase to windfall taxes in the upcoming May budget could potentially impact LNG investment in Australia, the firm added.Jefferies maintained a buy rating and raised its price target to AU$13.34 from AU$13.03.
