S&P/TSX Composite

TSX Closer: Index Down Again Friday As Global Economy May Soon Face Renewed Tariffs Spats

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower Friday following a day-prior surge that recovered all of the losses made over the prior five sessions, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will lift the tariffs charged on cars and trucks from the European Union next week to 25%, potentially adding more pressures on a global economy already struggling with the fallout from the Middle East war.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 73.15 points, or 0.2%, to 33,891.18, with sectors mixed. Energy was down by more than 1%, while the Battery Metals Index rose 2.3% and Info Tech was up near 2%Still FactSet noted that going in to today the index was up 1,196.29 points or 3.65% in April, and up 2,251.57 points or 7.1% year-to-date.In its Monthly Equity Monitor for May 2026 published today National Bank noted equities are "riding exceptionally strong earnings expectations", with global markets reaching new highs despite an ongoing oil shock and persistent geopolitical risk. "Markets appear to be pricing in a rapid return to normal, but the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to support a meaningful commodity-price premium," the bank said.National Bank remains cautious on risk assets, as renewed escalation could have severe global consequences, while even de-escalation may leave inflation and rates higher for longer. AI productivity gains offer upside over time, but they may not arrive quickly enough to fully offset the near-term drag from the commodity-price shock, weaker real income, and higher interest rates, the bank added.Meanwhile, on the economics front, Trump's latest threat against the EU comes as The Canadian Press reported Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney is rejecting the notion that his government might use energy or critical minerals as "leverage" in upcoming trade talks with the U.S. administration. Carney is cited in an interview as saying he wouldn't describe those sectors as "leverage" since Canada is not talking about stopping any sort of existing trade. His comments come after United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told an audience in Washington that Canada should not attempt to use its energy and mineral resources as leverage in discussions about renewing the continental free trade pact, the report notes.Of commodities, gold edged higher by midafternoon Friday but remained rangebound, even as the dollar and treasury yields rose while traders turn to bonds and also while the Iran War pushes up oil prices and boosts inflation and threatens higher interest rates. Gold for June delivery was up US$12.80 to US$4,642.40 per ounce.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as Iran made a new peace proposal, that U.S. President Trump rejected. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$3.13 to US$101.94 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$2.17 to US$108.23.

TSX Down 11 Points at Midday, With Energy The Worst Performer

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down just 11 points at midday with energy, down 1.2%, the biggest decliner.Info tech (+2.4%) and utilities (+0.8%) are the best performers.CIBC writes, in a note entitled 'Top-10 Best Ideas' for May said its factor mapping for the TSX index is "more positively skewed towards quality, value, and free-cash-flow yield, with less emphasis on the AI-growth factor" compared to its' U.S. mapping. "In today's narrow breadth environment, high grading and barbell strategies may serve as effective diversifiers. Combining momentum and trend factors for capital appreciation with value and yield for cheapness and income can support risk management," the bank added.CIBC notes the large-cap S&P/TSX 60 index recently began to outperform the broader S&P/TSX Composite index and the small-cap TSX Venture index. It said this shift in relative strength by size may indicate investors' preference for quality and liquidity, high grading is often associated with a defensive stance. CIBC said its best ideas for the month of April returned 8.53% with a 80% positive hit rate and 488 bps of positive alpha relative to the TSX index. Year to date, the monthly baskets have returned +12.75%, outperforming the benchmark TSX Index by 564 bps. Comparatively, the TSX Index returned +7.1% and SPX index returned +5.3%.The following are its top-10 best ideas for the month of May: Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), Keyera (KEY.TO), Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO), Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO); Manulife Financial (MFC.TO), Power Corp (POW.TO); Magna International (MG.TO), Restaurant Brands (QSR.TO), Methanex (MX.TO), Granite Real Estate (GRT-UN.TO).

TSX Had First Win In Six Sessions on Thursday

TSX Now Down Near 35 Pts, Was Down Double That In Early Moments of Friday Trade

Nasdaq 100 Futures Down Less Than 0.1%

S&P Futures Up Near 0.15%, At All Time Highs

TSX Closer: Index Up For the First Day In Six On Bargain Hunting, Economic Rebound In Q1

The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its first wining session in six, recovered all the 630 points and more lost over the prior five sessions, on some bargain hunting and a first-quarter rebound for the Canadian economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 645.94 points, or 1.9% to close at 33,964.33, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up near 3%, even with gold prices deflated. Even Energy was up 0.8%, despite lower oil prices.The Battery Metals Index lost 2.7%.On the economy, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank noted Canada's economy rebounded in Q1 and "might be performing a smidge better" than the Bank of Canada's published forecast yesterday. "Still," Holt said, "it's backward data that settles nothing much other than to reject gloomier consensus views on the underlying performance of the economy coming into the start of the year."Holt noted the economy grew by 0.17% month over month seasonally-adjusted, rounded up to 0.2% on screens. Statcan's preliminary guidance for March was that GDP was unchanged, absent any details. What this translates into is Q1 GDP tracking growth of 1.7% on a quarter over quarter SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), a rebound from the 0.3% q/q SAAR contraction in Q4, "with an asterisk beside both readings", Holt added.That asterisk speaks to the fact that we're using monthly, production-side GDP accounts, Holt said. The BoC and the street focuses upon more complete quarterly GDP accounts that also consider how activity was generated, such as by considering swings in inventory investment, he added.Holt said the difference may be material. Q4 GDP in expenditure-based terms shrank by -0.6% q/q SAAR because inventory depletion drove a 4.2 percentage point weighted drag against GDP economy. Final domestic demand excludes inventory effects and it grew by 2.3% q/q SAAR in Q4. "We don't have the complete inventory and trade picture for Q1 yet and so there continues to be some tracking risk," Holt added.Holt cited a chart that shows what drove February GDP. Manufacturing punched above its weight while the rest was an evenly distributed mixture of small growth additions and drags, he said. Some of the drags were weather oriented in his view, like construction, and maybe some of the leisure categories, he added.So, while GDP rebounded, it likely outpaced the supply side of the economy which will probably translate into a narrower output gap when we get the full set of Q1 GDP accounts, according to Holt.Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Thursday as the dollar dropped after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, while first-quarter gross domestic product rose less than expected. Gold for June delivery was up US$71.30 to US$4,632.80 per ounce, remaining within the US$200 range it has traded within for the past month.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.81 to settle at US$105.07 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$113.91, after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.

TSX up 455 Points at Midday With Healthcare, Materials, The Best Performers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 455 points at midday, partially recouping some of the 630 points lost over five straight days of losses.The best performers are healthcare (+3.6%) and materials (+2.3%). Bausch Health (BHC.TO), which reported an earnings beat after markets closed on Wednesday, is near-10% higher, to $8.41.Real Canadian GDP was up 0.2% in February, Statistics Canada reported today, and the advance reading for March and the first quarter, showed the economy is "far from running on all cylinders".CIBC's Andrew Grantham said: "While growth in Q1 appears close to the Bank of Canada's MPR projection, the apparent stall again in March is a concern regarding momentum heading into the spring. Consumer spending appears to be slowing again, which is understandable given the squeeze from higher gasoline prices as well as a still sluggish labour market. We continue to believe that there's enough slack within the economy to keep core measures of inflation fairly muted, even as the impact of higher energy prices passes through in some areas, which will enable the BoC to leave interest rates on hold through 2026."For its part National Bank said the latest data confirms the Canadian economy has held up in the first quarter despite headwinds. Despite the expected stagnation of the economy in March, GDP by industry shows growth of 1.7% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year. Not less than 12 out of 19 sectors posted growth during the quarter, it noted."Under normal circumstances, such growth would be considered decent, but it comes at a time when the population is shrinking, which is holding back the economy's potential GDP. Consequently, GDP per capita is on track to experience its strongest growth in 15 quarters (+2.1% annualized). This is good news for an economy with excess supply and an unemployment rate above its full-employment level," National Bank said."Unfortunately," it added, "past performance is no guarantee of future results regarding this renewed growth. The Canadian economy remains vulnerable due to tariff uncertainty and now, the global geopolitical situation. While higher commodity prices could benefit some industries, the potential upside should be offset by the negative impact on consumers, which are facing a jump in inflation. Weak real estate activity in major urban centers across the country (Toronto, Vancouver, among others) is causing a negative wealth effect, which represents another headwind for consumers."In stocks, Bombardier (BBD-B.TO) shares jumped 17% to $279.86 after it reported an first-quarter earnings beat.

TSX Up 270-plus Pts Early Thursday After Losing About 630 Pts Over Five Straight Days of Losses

Economy Expanded 0.4% In Q1 When February Rise, Flat Advance Read For March Are Taken Into Account, says Statistics Canada

Canadian real gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.2% month over month in February, with goods-producing industries driving the growth for the second consecutive month, said the country's statistical agency on Thursday.February's GDP growth was perfectly in line with a consensus figure provided by MUFG.Advance information indicates that real GDP was "essentially unchanged" in March, writes Statistics Canada in a statement. Increases in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were offset by decreases in retail trade and mining, quarrying, and oil and natural gas extraction.With this advance estimate for March, information on real GDP by industry suggests the economy expanded 0.4% in Q1 2026, stated StatsCan.Goods-producing industries grew 0.4% month over month in February, driven by expansions in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, added the Ottawa-based agency. Services-producing industries edged up 0.1%, as rebounds in transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade were largely offset by contractions in the public sector.For Canada, GDP and Income and Expenditure Accounts measure the production of goods and services in the Canadian economy as well as the incomes arising from this production and expenditure on the production. GDP represents the unduplicated value of goods and services produced during the reference period and are available for domestic consumption, investment or export.

Brief: Statistics Canada Says Preliminary Q1 GDP Expands 0.4%

Brief: Statistics Canada Says Preliminary GDP for March "Essentially Unchanged" M/M

Brief: Canada's GDP Expands 0.2% M/M in February; MUFG Says Consensus Saw 0.2% M/M Rise

Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 0.35% and S&P Futures Up Near 0.3%

S&P Futures Flat To Slightly Higher In Last Trading Day of April

TSX Closer: The Index Falls For a Fifth-Straight Session as the Bank of Canada Stands Pat

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down for a fifth-straight session Wednesday, with most sectors lower, bar the notable exception of Energy as Scotiabank's Derek Holt said market participants are "chasing higher oil prices oil prices" that are up "on a bet that war may be back on, if it ever subsided".The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 265.95 points, or 0.8%, to 33,318.39,, led lower by the Battery Metals Index, down 4.8%, and Base Metals, down 2.2%. In contrast the S&P 500 was flat to slightly lower, while the Nasdaq was flat to slightly higher.FactSet noted the index, going in to today, was down 370.77 points, or 1.09%, over the prior four trading days, its longest losing streak since Dec. 31, 2025, when the market also fell for four straight trading days. Month-to-date going in to Wednesday the index was up 2.49%, and year-to-date it was up 1,871.58 points, or 5.9%.As unanimously expected and priced, the Bank of Canada this morning left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%.But Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said "markets couldn't really have cared less about the BoC's communications. They're chasing higher oil prices that are on fire." Holt noted WTI and Brent were up about US$7.00 to US$8.00 "on a bet that war may be back on, if it ever subsided."Accordingly, Holt said, the post-communications market reactions are mixing market pricing of oil impacts and BoC communications while treating the latter as "stale on arrival". Holt noted July is now 50/50 priced for a BoC rate hike. He added: "June is not a base case at this point, but is underpriced in my opinion; six more weeks of this and it will be harder for Macklem & Co to sit tight and the BoC doesn't have to have an MPR to move." Holt noted volatile markets are swinging between pricing about 55 to 70 basis points of Scotia's 75bps forecast hikes by year-end.Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said the BoC communications "leaned hawkish and emphasised greater concern on upside risks to inflation". In the months ahead, Macquarie expects rhetoric to move further in a hawkish direction amid economic improvement and a falling unemployment rate. Macquarie continues to anticipate the next move from the BoC will be a 25 bps rate hike. On today's hawkish communication, Macquarie pulls slightly forward its baseline timing for this to September, from October, and it also now expects a second 25 bps hike in Q4 2026, previously Q1 2027.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, rising for a fourth-straight session as hopes around an end to the Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fade, while a report showed an larger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up US$6.95 to settle at US$106.88 per barrel, the highest since April 7, while June Brent oil was up US$6.74 to US$118.00.But gold was lower for a third-straight day, pressured by inflation worries even as the Federal Reserve's policy committee as expected left rates steady when ending its two-day meeting this afternoon. Gold for June delivery was down US$50.40 to US$4,558.00 an ounce, the lowest since March 30.

TSX Down 230 Points at Midday With Info Tech, Industrials, The Worst Performers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down near 230 points at midday, with most sectors lower, led by info tech (-2.0%) and industrials (-1.8%).Energy (+1.9%) is the top performer, boosted by higher oil prices.The Bank of Canada held its key benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25%. Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said the decision to leave the policy rate at 2.25% came as no surprise given the clouded outlook ahead.Shenfeld noted the Bank assumed that oil prices will gradually decline to US$75/bbl in mid-2027, "still lifting near term inflation but leaving the growth outlook little changed from the prior forecast, one that only makes very gradual progress in eliminating economic slack". While the BoC sees "little evidence" of a spillover to core inflation so far,", it said that it will not let "higher energy prices become persistent inflation".Shenfield said, "If that sounds hawkish, its worth noting that the Bank doesn't see that happening, projecting a spike to 3% inflation but a return to the 2% target early next year, a view we share, and while it says it might need to adjust the policy rate, those changes "can be expected to be small."In stocks, CGI (GIB-A.TO) is down near 14% after it reported its second-quarter results this morning.CN Rail (CNR.TO) is 6.1% lower after reporting inline first-quarter results.

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor's Press Conference Ends

Brief: Bank of Canada's Governor Says Businesses Today Are More Cautious Than Post-COVID About Passing Along Higher Costs to Their Clients

Brief: Bank of Canada's Rogers Says If There's A "Big" Change in CUSMA Review, Then That Could Be A "Shock" to Economy