S&P/TSX Composite Index

Brief: Bank of Canada Sees Economy Remaining in Excess Supply

Brief: Bank of Canada Reiterates Ready to Respond With Rate Changes as Needed

Brief: Bank of Canada Keeps Rates Unchanged, as Expected

TSX Closer: Index Falls As Oil Slump Weighs On Energy Shares Ahead Of BoC Interest-Rate Decision

The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped Tuesday as a sharp decline in oil prices weighed on energy shares, while investors assessed mixed economic data, a wider Canadian trade surplus and the outlook for the Bank of Canada's interest-rate decision coming tomorrow.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 67.05 points, or 0.19%, to 34,411.69, with sectors mixed over Tuesday's session.Energy led decliners, down 3.13%, while Health Care, Information and Technology, and the Base Metals were down 0.60%, 1.17%, and 0.54%, respectively. Battery Metals Index led gainers, up 1.53%, with Financial, up 0.97%, Utilities, up 0.32%, Industrials, up 0.35%, and Telecom, up 0.45%.In commodities, gold fell to at a six-month low on Tuesday even as the dollar weakened. The precious metal for July delivery was last seen down US$74.00 to US$4.289.40 per ounce, the lowest since Dec. 10. The price of the metal has dropped 7.7% over the past month as investors turn to the dollar to hedge against the threat of higher interest rates as inflation rises due to the high oil prices that have followed the U.S. war on Iran.Meanwhile in oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 3.4% on Tuesday on calming tensions in the Middle East as Iran and Israel ended their missile attacks and U.S. President Trump said negotiations to end the war on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are in their "final throes". WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$3.10 to settle at US$88.20 per barrel, while August Brent oil was last seen down US$2.82 to US$91.43.On the economic front, Statistics Canada reported Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world widened in April as exports outpaced imports. It widened to $2.7 billion in April from $1.8 billion in March, as exports rose 1.6% month over month, while imports edged up 0.3% month over month, said the country's statistical agency on Tuesday. This was the second consecutive monthly trade surplus, and the largest since January 2025, wrote Statistics Canada in a statement.The April surplus was roughly in line with a $2.50-billion consensus surplus provided by MUFG. Exports of energy products rose 9.7% month over month in April. This followed an increase of 23.4% in March. Both monthly increases were driven by higher prices, which continued to rise in April amid the uncertainty caused by the conflict in Iran, the agency added.The country's expanding trade surplus is helped not only by higher oil prices but also by an increase in export volumes, said CIBC. Total exports rose by 1.6% month over month, driven by energy products, food and autos. Export growth would have been stronger were it not for a pullback in the volatile gold trade, stated CIBC. Excluding the two volatile areas of energy and metal/non-metallic minerals, exports were up by 5.1% and total exports saw another solid increase in volume terms.Total imports edged up slightly in both nominal and volume terms. The solid increase in export volumes is positive for monthly and quarterly gross domestic product, although the strong advance estimate for April GDP will likely have already included most, if not all, of that information, added CIBC. The further gain in export volumes at the start of Q2, following a solid rise in March, will mean that net trade should be a positive for quarterly GDP and support a rebound in economic activity following two marginal contractions, the lender added.Recent trade data suggested that Canadian exports have largely recovered to pre-2025 levels, although still with some weakness in sectors hit hardest by United States tariffs. However, with tariff uncertainty remaining as CUSMA renegotiations drag on, further upward momentum will likely be limited in the near-term, CIBC noted.Looking ahead to monetary policy, Rosenberg Research said the Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% during Wednesday's policy meeting, with markets continuing to price in one 25 basis points rate hike before year-end.Besides the Canadian dollar) has been the weakest reserve currency in recent weeks, as Canada's deteriorating real growth profile, unfavorable Canada-United States two-year spreads, and declining bullion prices weigh on the currency, said National Bank of Canada. Full-time employment at a record high makes it hard to call Canada a recession story, but a sustained Canadian dollar rally will likely require Ottawa to secure a trade accord with the United States this summer, pointed out the bank.Meanwhile, fresh industry data pointed to continued softness in consumer demand, with Canadian vehicle sales remaining below year-ago levels. Canadian auto sales fell 0.6% month over month to 1.89 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May, based on data from Omdia, said Scotiabank.The monthly selling rate has trended in the 1.85 million to 1.9 million annualized range since February, an improvement from the three months to January when sales averaged 1.75 million to 1.8 million but still below the two-million rate a year ago.

TSX Closure: The Index Gains As Energy, Financial Shares, Advance Ahead of the BoC's Rate Decision

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday, recovering some of Friday's 804-point drop as strength in energy, financial and base metals stocks offset weakness in battery metals and defensive sectors, while investors weighed rising oil prices, inflation concerns and expectations the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates unchanged this week.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 65.29 points, or 0.19%, to 34,478.74, with sectors mixed. Battery Metals Index led decliners , down 12.33%, while Health Care, Telecom, Utilities and Industrials were down 2.27%, 0.42%, 0.83%, and 0.15%, respectively. Energy led gainers, up 1.63%, with Financial, up 0.42%, Information and Technology, up 0.88%, and the Base Metals, up 1.13%.In commodities, gold fell to a fresh five-month low as rising oil prices fueled concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and pressure central banks to raise interest rates. Gold for June delivery was last down US$5.00 at US$4,360.30 an ounce, while Saxo Bank said renewed tensions in the Middle East and a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report had reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates in 2026.However, oil prices rose as renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel heightened concerns over global crude supplies, although gains eased after reports the two sides had agreed to halt further attacks. WTI crude settled up US$0.76 at US$91.30 a barrel after earlier climbing as high as US$95.47, while Brent crude rose US$1.13 to US$94.22. Market participants continued to monitor the impact of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global oil shipments, with reports noted that supply risks are overshadowing OPEC+'s planned production increases.Against that backdrop, National Bank said the BoC should consider publishing an unemployment-rate forecast as part of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, mentioning that labor market conditions are central to the inflation outlook and the future path of interest rates.The bank noted that the monthly Labour Force Survey remains the most closely watched Canadian economic release for bond markets, as employment and unemployment data help investors gauge inflation pressures and recalibrate expectations for monetary policy. It added that publishing unemployment-rate projections, alongside an estimate of the economy's trend or natural unemployment rate, would improve market understanding of how the central bank is likely to pursue its price-stability mandate.Meanwhile, CIBC said Canada's efforts to reduce its reliance on the U.S. economy through trade diversification have yielded only modest results despite recent progress. The bank noted that Canada has 15 free-trade agreements covering 51 countries and more than 61% of global GDP, but the impact on export diversification has been limited.CIBC said the share of Canadian exports destined for the United States has fallen to 69% over the past 12 months from 76% in 2024, with demand from China and Europe helping offset some of the decline. The lender added that despite ongoing trade tensions, Canada's long-term economic alignment is likely to remain with the United States.Looking ahead, National Bank said the BoC is expected to leave its overnight target unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. This would mark the fifth consecutive hold after policymakers first declared in October that policy is at "about the right level" to keep inflation near target and support the economy's transition, noted the bank.There is little in the data to justify a more hawkish shift from the BoC at its Wednesday policy meeting, said ING. April inflation undershot expectations with the headline consumer price index rising more modestly than feared to 2.8% year over year from 2.4%, the market consensus had been 3.1%, while core inflation surprisingly slowed. Meanwhile, the labor market has been mixed, noted the bank.Despite the gain in employment data on Friday, UBS said the BoC considers this in the broader trend of a "soggy" labor market. A flat four-month moving average in employment growth, even with Friday's strong gain in May, suggests the BoC would need to see a sustained improvement rather than just this one-month gain before this would tip the balance, stated UBS. This also has to be framed alongside disappointing growth in Q1, writes the bank in a note to clients.Additionally, the federal government on Monday offered loans to airlines struggling to cope with the soaring price of jet fuel, as Iran war forced them to cut flight schedules and curtail profit forecasts, reported The Canadian Press.The new program will let carriers borrow up to $150 million each, said Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne."By building on existing relief measures with targeted and temporary support for Canada's airline sector, we are helping maintain connectivity, protect Canadian jobs and reduce pressures on travelers during this period of elevated fuel costs," Champagne said in a news release.Besides, s new report pointed out Canada could be poised for a slower-than-usual summer rental market as average asking rents for May were down approximately $100 from a year earlier, reported CP.The latest monthly analysis from Rentals.ca and Urbanation finds the average asking rent for May was down 4.7 per cent year-over-year to $2,029, marking the 20th consecutive annual decline, it added.

S&P/TSX Composite Index Up 198.14 Points to 34,611.59 at Midday

TSX Close: Index Drops More Than 2% as Base Metals Lead a Broad Market Decline

The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped sharply Friday, falling off a day-prior record high as weakness in base metals, technology and energy stocks outweighed gains in other sectors, while investors assessed stronger-than-expected employment data from both Canada and the United States that pushed bond yields higher and impacted expectations for interest-rate cuts.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 803.61 points, or 2.28%, to 34,413.45, with sectors mixed over Friday's session.Base Metals led decliners , down 9.54%, while Energy, Industrials and Information and Technology were down 4.09%, 0.41% and 4.35%, respectively. Health Care led gainers, up 3.77%, with Financial, up 0.04%, Telecom, up 0.28%, Utilities, up 0.44%, and the Battery Metals Index, up 0.11%.Statistics Canada reported that employment rose by 88,000 jobs in May, well above expectations for a gain of about 10,100, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.9% in April. The increase marked the first significant monthly job gain since November 2025.Employment increased among core-aged ,25 to 54 years old, women (+31,000; +0.5% month over month), core-aged men (+25,000; +0.3%), and youth aged 15 to 24 (+22,000; +0.8%). Employment increased in several industries, most notably in construction (+27,000; +1.7% month over month), information, culture and recreation (+19,000; +2.3%), transportation and warehousing (+19,000; +1.7%) and accommodation and food services (+17,000; +1.5%).In contrast to expectations for a "modest" 10,000 increase, Canadian employment rose 88,000 during the month, said Desjardins after the Friday release of Labour Force Survey (LFS). Strength was broad-based across industries and was all in full-time work, noted the bank. Yields across the Government of Canada bond curve are rising, led by the short end, where traders are now pricing in between one and two rate hikes for the remainder of this year, added the bank.That said, given the volatility in the LFS, it's difficult to have much confidence in the signaling power of Friday's reading, according to Desjardins. The bank continues to see downside risks for the Canadian economy, both from fundamental weakness and trade negotiations.Still, other economists remained cautious on the outlook for monetary policy and the Canadian dollar despite the stronger labour market data.UBS noted that April inflation readings came in below market expectations, while the USMCA trade deal negotiations deadline of July 1 is approaching fast. This follows a period of generally weaker economic data from Canada, as evidenced by a sharp decline in economic surprise indexes, writes the bank in a note to clients. Against that backdrop, the bank expects the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at next week's meeting.As a result, UBS expects the Canadian dollar to face near-term headwinds and said it would not be surprised to see USD/CAD trade in a 1.40-1.42 range before eventually stabilizing and moving back toward 1.35.In commodities, gold prices fell sharply after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data boosted the dollar and treasury yields. Gold for July delivery was last down US$137.20 at US$4,367.80 per ounce, its lowest level since Jan. 2.The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations for an increase of 80,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The data lifted the U.S. dollar and pushed bond yields higher.Oil prices declined but remained elevated amid ongoing uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery settled down US$2.50 at US$90.54 per barrel, while August Brent crude fell US$1.99 to US$93.04.Crude prices were stressed after Israel and Lebanon reached a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement, although concerns over regional stability persisted as reports indicated continued military activity in Lebanon and tensions between the United States and Iran remained unresolved. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and declining U.S. crude inventories continued to provide underlying support for prices.Also, one of the federal Liberals' flagship affordability measures will land in the bank accounts of eligible Canadians starting Friday, reported The Canadian Press.The program was previously called the GST/HST credit and is usually paid out on a quarterly basis to lower-income households to help them keep pace with the rising cost of living. An estimated 12-million Canadians are eligible for the one-time benefit and amounts vary based on the size of the household, with a single adult with no children getting up to $267 and a couple with two kids receiving a maximum of $533, CP reported.

Canada's Jobs Report Better Than Expected in May on Full-Time Jobs as Posts First Significant Gain Since November 2025

Canada's employment increased by 88,000, or 0.4% month over month, in May and the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 6.6%, said the country's statistical agency on Friday.The job gains and unemployment rate were better than the consensus gain of 10,100 and a consensus jobless rate of 6.9% provided by MUFG.The employment increase of 88,000 in May is the first "significant" employment gain since November 2025, noted Statistics Canada in a statement.Employment increased among core-aged (25 to 54 years old) women (+31,000; +0.5% month over month), core-aged men (+25,000; +0.3%), and youth aged 15 to 24 (+22,000; +0.8%).Employment increased in several industries, most notably in construction (+27,000; +1.7% month over month), information, culture and recreation (+19,000; +2.3%), transportation and warehousing (+19,000; +1.7%) and accommodation and food services (+17,000; +1.5%). On the other hand, employment decreased in wholesale and retail trade (-35,000; -1.2%).Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.0%, or $1.10 to $37.24, on a year-over-year basis in May, following growth of 4.5% not seasonally adjusted in April, added StatsCan.The monthly LFS estimates are based on a sample and are therefore subject to sampling variability. As a result, monthly estimates will show more variability than trends observed over longer time periods. This analysis focuses on differences between estimates that are statistically significant at the 68% confidence level.LFS estimates at the Canada level don't include the territories. The LFS estimates are the first in a series of labor market indicators released by StatsCan, which includes indicators from programs such as the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH); Employment Insurance Statistics; and the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.

Brief: Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Increase 3.0% Y/Y in May

Brief: Canada's Unemployment Rate at 6.6% in May; MUFG Says Consensus Saw at 6.9%

Brief: Canada Gains 88,000 Jobs, or 0.4% M/M, in May; MUFG Says Consensus Saw 10,100 Increase

TSX Closer: The Index Sets a Fresh Record Closing High

The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday set its second record close in three sessions, with most sectors higher as investors returned for more buying after a day-prior drop, while there continues to be a general satisfaction in the market that the Canadian federal government is working on strengthening the economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 415.52 points, or 1.2%, to 35,217.06, beating Tuesday's record close of 35,169.46. Most sectors were higher, led by Health Care, up 3.2%. But the Battery Metals Index fell 4.5%.According to FactSet the TSX going in to today was up 11.13% from its 2026 closing low of 31317.41 hit March 20 and year to date up 3,088.78 points or 9.74%.Base Metals were down 0.9% even though gold prices were higher by midafternoon Thursday as the dollar and treasury yields weakened, while oil prices dropped after Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, lowering the inflation fears that have kept the precious mental rangebound since the start of the war between the United States and Iran. Gold for July delivery was up US$40.50 to US$4,507.40 per ounce.Energy was up 1.2% even as West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 3.1%. WTI crude oil for July delivery was down US$2.98 to settle at US$93.04 per barrel, while August Brent oil was down US$3.53 to US$94.28.After months of delay, the federal government has unveiled its AI strategy Thursday, outlining a vision focused on job creation, sovereignty and increased AI adoption, CTV News noted. But the plan lacks details on how Canadians will be protected from the technology's potentially adverse effects, it said.CTV News noted the strategy explicitly pledges to help create 250,000 jobs by 2031 and generate an additional $200 billion of economic growth. But it also noted the Conference Board of Canada recently projected AI and automation could lead to an initial loss of 550,000 jobs by 2030 as businesses restructure. In a technical briefing with reporters prior to today's announcement, government officials said they don't contest or agree with the Conference Board of Canada report, but will "monitor the impacts of potential displacements", CTV noted. "We have done a high adoption scenario to be able to understand what we believe will be created as a function of sectors on a high adoption scale," the official said.Meanwhile, the federal government announced a new industry-led alliance aimed at growing the skilled workforce for Canada's mining industry, which is struggling to fill key jobs, The Canadian Press reported. It noted jobs Minister Patty Hajdu made the announcement Thursday in southwestern Nova Scotia, saying the new body, dubbed the mining and minerals workforce alliance, is part of Prime Minister Mark Carney's drive to build a more independent economy.

TSX Surges 404 Points to Record High With Healthcare, Financials, Leading

The Toronto Stock Exchange surged 404 points higher to a record high of 35,205 at midday, as most sectors rally.Healthcare and financials are the best performers, up 2.0% and 1.6%, respectively.Materials and telecoms are the worst performers, both down 1%.In economic news, the Canadian Parliamentary Budget Office now projects real gross domestic product growth of 1.1% for this year and 1.6% for 2027, down from last September's projection of 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively.The PBO, which is now treating the current tariff environment as permanent, said its Economic and Fiscal Outlook for June 2026 assessed that the Canadian economy grew by 1.7% in 2025, "with a weakened outlook thereafter".After accounting for historical revisions, nominal GDP is projected to be, on average, $19.5 billion higher annually over the 2026 to 2030 period compared with the outlook from September, due to stronger energy prices, the PBO calculates. PBO's status quo fiscal outlook includes the incremental measures announced in Budget 2025 and the Spring Economic Update 2026. Combined, these measures amount to $68.4 billion in (net) new spending over 2025-26 to 2030-31.PBO projects Canada's budgetary deficit to increase from $36.3 billion, or 1.2% of GDP, in 2024-25 to $72.0 billion, 2.2% of GDP, in 2025-26 as modest revenue growth is outpaced by growth in expenses, reflecting the introduction of new measures.In other news, Morningstar, in a note titled '10 Top-Performing Canadian Dividend Stocks', said Barrick (ABX.TO) and Great-West Lifeco (GWO.TO) were among May's high-yielding winners."Dividend-paying stocks that combine healthy balance sheets with hefty yields can provide steady income, cushion against market downturns, and grow investments at a healthy clip," Morningstar said.In May 2026, the top-performing dividend payers included airline Exchange Income (EIF.TO), industrial distributor Russel Metals (RUS.TO), and telecom services firm Quebecor (QBR-B.TO), it noted.The Morningstar Canada Index, which measures the performance of Canada's broad regional markets, targeting the top 97% of stocks by market capitalization, was screened for companies with a forward dividend yield of at least 1.5%, excluding real estate investment trusts, it added.

TSX Now Up Near 240 Pts

TSX Opens Up About 110 Pts

Nasdaq 100 Futures Down 1.1% and S&P Futures Down 0.4% Ahead of Jobless Claims Today, Payrolls Data on Friday

S&P Futures Down 0.3% Ahead of US Payrolls Data

TSX Closer: Index Falls From a Record Close; Rosenberg Research Lifts Exposure to Gold and Gold Miners

The Toronto Stock Exchange fell from a record close Wednesday on profit taking, but also as Canadian investors come to terms with the fact the country is in a 'technical' recession just as the United States ramps us its demands with trade talks involving the two nations set to resume soon.The S&PTSX Composite Index closed down 367.92 points, or 1.05%, to 34,801.54, with most sectors lower, led by Info Tech, down near 3.5%. The Battery Metals Index led gainers, up by near 3%.Energy also rose, up by 1.2% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a third day with the ceasefire between Iran and the United States appearing to fracture after the two sides exchanged strikes, lowering hopes for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI oil for July delivery closed up US$2.26 to settle at US$96.02 per barrel, while August Brent oil was up US$1.88 to US$97.88.But Base Metals lost 3.2%, not helped by gold trading lower as the dollar rose to a two-month high after oil prices rose following fresh hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, renewing worries energy inflation will force central banks to lift interest rates. Gold for July delivery was down US$53.80 to US$4,466.10 an ounce.Still, Rosenberg Research has increased its exposure to gold exchange-traded (GLD) and gold miners (GDX). "We made several adjustments to the Rosie Model Portfolio to put into action some of the constructive themes we have been writing about recently, while also taking profits and rebalancing some of our strongest performers." it said on Wednesday.Rosenberg Research continues to see structural support for gold prices. Which, it said, should support the profit outlook for gold miners. After a period of weak, range-bound performance driven by war-related market conditions, Rosenberg Research sees this as a good point to rebuild exposure. Following the adjustment, gold (GLD) has a 5.7% weight in the portfolio, while gold miners (GLDX) have a 5.8% weight, it noted.On the economics front, Canada's economy shrank in the last two quarters, which meets the definition of a 'technical recession'. But some economists say that label is misleading, while others argue that the distinction doesn't really matter, CTV News is reporting. "Technically, we are in a recession," Colin Mang, assistant professor of economics at McMaster University, told CTV News Channel on Tuesday. "We've had two quarters where overall spending in the economy dropped, but to put things into context, the decline from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 was only about $1 million. That represents 0.03% of our total $3.2 trillion economy."CTV noted Mang's comments came after Statistics Canada released its latest gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, which found that the slight first-quarter GDP drop followed a dip of 1% in the fourth quarter of last year, a number StatCan revised down. According to StatCan, the Canadian economy has seen negative real GDP growth in three of the last four quarters.On top of that, Canada is already on the back foot ahead of trade talks with the United States resuming. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday his Liberal government will soon introduce legislation on forced labor in supply chains after the Trump administration proposed a 10% additional tariff on Canada and other countries following an investigation into the issue.Trade discussions between the two countries. will continue ahead of the July 1 CUSMA review deadline, but they are likely to extend beyond that date as the nations work through unresolved trade issues and tariff disputes.

TSX Falls 185 Points at Midday

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 185 points at midday with most sectors in the red.The biggest decliners are the technology and materials sectors, both down 2.8%, while energy and utilities, up 1.9% and 0.9%, are the best performers. Shopify (SHOP.TO) which late on Tuesday said t it is upping its share buyback program by US$3 billion, is down 2.5%.On the economics front, home sales jumped in Canada's largest real estate market last month, BNN noted. Sales in Toronto rose by the most in 10 months as lower prices began to lure back buyers. Sales rose by 10% in May from April, the biggest month-to-month increase since last July. But the seasonally adjusted benchmark price of a home dipped 0.2% from the previous month. Housing markets across Canada have been slumping, with prices falling 20% on average since 2022, it also noted.Statistics Canada reported that labor productivity fell 0.5% in the first quarter, led by goods-producing sectors (-1.7%). Services edged up 0.3%. Hours worked rose 0.4% even as output contracted, pushing unit labour costs +1.4% (the fourth straight quarterly increase), the agency said.In stocks, Canadian telecom stocks under CIBC coverage returned an average of 8% in May, outperforming the TSX (+2%). Quebecor (QBR-B.TO) led the group, returning 17% in May after reporting its second consecutive quarter of ARPU growth, with wireless service revenue growth of 9% vs. 22 bps growth at the Big 3 on average. The remaining telecom companies generated low- to high-single-digit returns as the group exited Q1 earnings, CIBC said.

TSX Down 180 Pts After Setting Fresh Record Close on Tuesday