S&P/TSX Composite Index

TSX Now 300+ Pts Higher, Above 34,800 and At All Time High Levels

TSX Opens More Than 250 Pts Higher, Above 34.700 and At All Time High Levels

S&P Futures Were Up 0.9%, With US markets Shut Monday and the US Administration Nearing a Deal With Iran, Bloomberg Reported

Copper Quest Announcing Adoption of Semi-Annual Reporting; Lodestar Metals Also

Lodestar Metals Announcing Adoption of Semi-Annual Reporting

TSX Closer: The Index Rises For a Third Session But Ends Shy of Its Record Close

The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a third-straight session on Friday but fell short of closing at a fresh record high amid broad sector based buying as investors continue to see strong market fundamentals, even as Rosenberg Research sees "potential trigger for weakness" in the index.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 61.87 points, or 0.2%, at 34,471.36, adding to the near 670 points gained over the prior two sessions. But while it touched an early afternoon session high above 34,572, it didn't manage to hold there and eventually slipped below an existing record close of 34,541.27 posted on March 2.Among sectors, Info Tech was up 1.6%, Telecom up near 1.3% and Base Metals up near 1%, despite a lower gold price. In contrast, Health Care was down near 0.5% and Energy eased 0.15%, despite modest gains for the oil price.For this week's Technical Analysis, Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research shifted his focus to global equity markets, including Canada's. Murphy noted the Dow Jones Canada Stock Index was up 6.14% year to date at the end of last week. This put it in 13th place among the 31 non-U.S. Dow Jones Indexes. Over the same period, the TSX index gained 6.69%.Murphy noted recent comments pointed out the TSX index has been probing Fibonacci resistance in the 33,851 area, the level where the rally from last April's low is 1.618 times the earlier 2023-2025 uptrend. "That is still the case, so it is taking on the role of key resistance," he added.Murphy also noted last month's comment noted the weekly Coppock Curve's post-February downtrend had begun a bottoming process from above its neutral zero line that could continue into mid-May. In the five weeks since then, the "bottoming process" has morphed into a flatline consolidation structure, Murphy said. "That, plus the fact that it did not confirm February's high, increases the potential that the indicator is becoming more susceptible to a breakdown than a breakout. That would be a potential trigger for weakness in the TSX index," he added.In the meantime, Murphy said, March's 31,146 low remains key support. A breakdown will complete a top formation, allowing for a deep test of 30,808-29,379, he added. Murphy noted 33,581 is important Fibonacci resistance, and beyond that, his team would look to 35,842 for next resistance.On the economic front, data released earlier Friday showed the retail sales tend has turned upward, at least for now. National Bank noted an increase of 0.9% in March, three ticks above the consensus estimate and the prior provided advance estimate last month. Also, Statistics Canada's advance estimate for April suggested nominal retail sales rose 0.6% in the month. "But once again, given the continued surge in gasoline prices that occurred in the month, this figure heavily reflects higher prices at the pump," National Bank said. "As a result, in real terms, retail sales should register a second monthly contraction going into the second quarter. Consumers also face a mortgage interest-payment shock and a fragile labour market, which could weigh on discretionary spending going forward," it added.Still, in reflecting optimism around the outlook for the Canadian economy, RBC published a note today entitled 'Canada's GDP growth likely turned positive in Q1 after Q4 contraction', a full week ahead of when the related data is slated for release. Canada's economy likely returned to growth in Q1 with gross domestic product bouncing back by an annualized 1.7% after declining 0.6% in Q4, supported by improving domestic growth drivers, RBC said.Of commodities, gold prices had eased by midafternoon Friday, remaining rangebound as the dollar steadied. Gold for June delivery was down US$19.30 to US$4,523.20 per ounce.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small gain on fading hopes for a quick peace deal between the United States and Iran. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up US$0.25 to settle at US$96.60 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$0.75 to US$103.33.

TSX up 98 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 98 points at midday with most sectors higher.The tech sector, up 1.7% is the best performer, followed by telecoms, up 1%.Healthcare, down 0.9%, is the sole declinerIn economics, the focus was on the release of retail sales data for March, and an advance figure for April. TD noted retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, ahead of the 0.6% gain reported in the advance estimate. In volume terms, sales declined 0.7% m/m, showing higher prices eating into activity. Statistics Canada's advance estimate pointed to a 0.6% m/m increase in April.The inflation effect was expected in March and is going to carry through to April with the CPI showing goods prices rising a cumulative 1.8% (seasonally adjusted) through these two months, noted TD Economics. "The sinking volumes figures suggest consumers are already cutting back, as higher energy prices eat into budgets," the bank said.TD's outlook is that private domestic demand, and particularly consumer demand, will be subdued in the second quarter, largely due to significantly higher energy prices. Provided energy prices begin falling in June, this should provide some relief and help private domestic demand gain traction in the second half of 2026, the bank said. For the Bank of Canada, the current slack in the economy should allow them to look through the initial energy shock and wait for more clarity on how pervasive inflation pressures are becoming, it added.CIBC said overall while headline sales were a little stronger than the consensus forecast and advance estimate, that surprise wasn't large enough to change the underlying message. Namely that inflation-adjusted consumer spending appears to be stalling again following a solid start to the year. "That stall in spending will limit the ability of higher gasoline prices to spread to wider inflationary pressures, enabling the BoC to look through the near-term spike in headline inflation and keep interest rates on hold this year," it added.The issue of the lingering tariffs war with the United States remains and Reuters overnight cited a Pentagon official as saying the U.S. decision to suspend planned biannual defense talks with Canada follows deepening concern that Ottawa is failing to take steps to become a "credible" security partner, including by hiking military spending and completing a review of an F-35 fighter jet acquisition. The Pentagon announced on May 18 it was "pausing" its participation in the U.S.-Canada Permanent Joint Board on Defence, the senior advisory body on North American continental defense established in 1940.In stocks, CAE (CAE.TO) is down 13% today and touched a new 52-week low of $34.16, after it reported its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday after hours.

TSX Opens Up 120 Pts, Just Shy of Record Close Levels

S&P Futures and Nasdaq 100 Futures Both Up About 0.1% Ahead of US Holiday Weekend

S&P Futures Up 0.25%

TSX Closer: The Index Rises Again, Closes in on Its Record High

The resources-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday rose to within 140 points of its record close, with commodities center stage as RBC said surging gold prices and inroads to foreign markets cushion Canada's exports from U.S. tariff pressures, while Scotiabank looked for the 'sweet spot price' on oil as the Iran war continues.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 247.67 points, or 0.7%, at 34,409.49, adding to the near 420 points gained yesterday when it recovered much of the 500 points lost over the two sessions leading in to that. The record close of 34,541.27 was set on March 2.Most sectors were higher, led by Base Metals (boosted by gold) and the Battery Metals index, both up by more than 2%.Energy did slip about 0.1% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a third day Thursday as the United States awaits Iran's response to it latest peace proposal, though reports said the Persian Gulf country will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$1.91 to settle at US$96.35 per barrel, while July Brent oil was down US$1.54 to US$103.48.Gold had edged higher by midafternoon Thursday, moving up from early losses as the dollar and yields moderated despite an uncertain outlook for a peace deal between Iran and the United States. Gold for June delivery was up US$7.70 to US$4,543.00 per ounce after earlier touching US$4,488.30.RBC published a note saying diversifying exports outside of the United States has emerged as a critical offset to tariff pressures for Canada with higher gold exports exaggerating gains from foreign markets.Among highlights, RBC noted Canadian exports fared better than expected last year, declining by just 0.8% year over year on a nominal basis, with a rise in exports to non-U.S. markets, particularly the U.K., emerged as a counterbalance to weaker U.S. exports due to tariffs.RBC said the caveat is that the non-U.S. export gains did not come primarily from diversifying exports in highly tariffed sectors. The increase had more to do with a price surge in gold exports, and the new TMX oil pipeline increasing export capacity outside of North America, it added.Meanwhile, Olivier Gervais, Director, Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank, published 'The Sweet Spot Price: When Do Oil Prices No Longer Benefit the Canadian Economy?'As a net oil exporter, Canada typically benefits from higher oil prices, but is there a point when the gains diminish or disappear?, asked Gervais in a note dated May 21.Scotiabank results confirm that higher oil prices remain a net positive for activity at current levels, but the macro payoff diminishes as prices rise, Gervais said, adding Scotiabank finds evidence that once oil prices move into the US$120-US$130 range, in 2026 dollars, they no longer provide a statistically meaningful boost to Canadian activity.But these estimates should be interpreted with caution, Gervais said. "Rather than a precise tipping point, this range is better viewed as an indicative zone where the positive relationship becomes markedly less clear," he added.

TSX up 117 Points at Midday, Boosted by Commodities, Utilities

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 117 points at midday, led by strong gains in commodities and utilities.The energy sector is up 1.6% as oil prices bounce back from Wednesday's plunge. The United States is still waiting on Iran's response to its latest peace proposal, though Reuters reports that Iran will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program.Crude oil is up US$2.90 to US$101.16 on last look.Utilities is up 1.2%, while the mining sector is up 1%.Healthcare and info tech are the sole decliners, shedding 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.In stocks, Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD.TO) is 8.8% lower after it reported lower fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, even though revenue advanced 15%.

TSX Now Down Near 95 Pts, Was Down Nearer 130 Pts In Early Moments of Thursday Trade; Down and Up Market Trend Continues

S&P Futures Flat To Slightly Higher and Nasdaq 100 Futures Flat To Slightly Lower

TSX Closer: The Index Closes Higher For the First Time In Three Sessions

The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recovered much of the 500-plus points lost over the prior two sessions as CIBC said "the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks", amid fears higher rates would lift borrowing costs for many companies and sideline them and consumers when they are needed to help spur the economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 420.59 points, or 1.25%. to 34,161.82. with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up 2.5%, helped by elevated gold. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 4.9% and Energy was 2.3% lower.On the outlook for rates, CIBC Capital Markets economists Avery Shenfeld and Andrew Grantham published a note titled 'Who really fears inflation, the Bank of Canada or the Fed?'.Soaring oil prices, alongside price hikes for aluminum, helium and other supplies shipped through the now shuttered Strait of Hormuz, have markets looking at downside risks to global growth, and more immediately, upside risks to inflation, the CIBC pair noted. That's seen markets replace earlier expectations for a Fed rate cut this year with the possibility of a hike, and price in roughly two 25 basis point increases in Canada before year end, they said. But, they also asked, which of those central banks should be in greater fear of inflation these days, and does current relative pricing for policy changes make sense?CIBC's current rate forecast has both central banks on hold for an extended period, although the bank has penciled in a quarter point rate cut for the Fed in December that is conditional on an early end to the war. The Bank of Canada's own language, suggests it will not be looking to hike rates this year in any scenario that sees the pressure from oil prices abating in the second half of the year on a resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the CIBC duo noted.But with that geopolitical outcome by no means certain, investors will put some weight on a scenario in which a more protracted conflict sees triple-digit crude prices extending from here to the end of the year, Shenfeld and Grantham said. Their analysis suggest the United States would be more at risk of a broader inflationary spiral than Canada in that scenario, making it unlikely the BoC would be hiking first and more aggressively than the Fed.Further afield, things could look a bit different, according to CIBC. A very extended rise in crude prices might be more of a positive for the Canadian economy than a negative, if it triggered an acceleration in energy-sector capital spending. Or, in CIBC's base case, with a return to US$75/bbl oil prices, the bank could see the BoC nudging interest rates up to 2.75% by the end of 2027 if a favorable outcome in trade talks reduces the drag on exports and business capital spending and begins to lower unemployment. But for this year at least, the bar to get the Bank of Canada into a tightening stance is higher than the market thinks, at least relative to what the case would be for the Fed, CIBC added.BMO Capital Markets noted at the same time as the consumer price index was released this week, April's New Housing Price Index pointed to further deceleration in shelter costs for May. The house-only portion, which feeds directly into homeowners' replacement costs, fell 0.6% in April alone, the largest drop since 2009. By this measure, prices remain 3.5% below year-ago levels. And, the bank also noted, there's little relief on the horizon as the market continues to digest a glut of new inventory and a backlog of projects coming online.Separately, BMO noted, rent growth also continues to decelerate, although progress is slower than what it has seen on the ground as the CPI reflects delays in things like switching to cheaper leases. Here, the bank said, it looks like the downside pressure will remain as long as immigration controls keep demand growing much slower than supply. "Altogether, housing continues to be a key source of disinflationary pressure as the economy faces further challenges in energy and other resources," it added.Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Wednesday as treasury yields and the dollar fell. Gold for June delivery was upUS $25.90 to US$4,537.10 per ounce.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower after as U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages while threatening to renew attacks if a deal cannot be reached. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $5.89 to settle at US$98.26 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$6.18 to US$105.10.

TSX up 443 Points Led by Miners; Energy, The Sole Decliner

The Toronto Stock Exchange surged 443 points, or 1.3%, at midday, recovering some of this week's losses.Miners, up 2.6%, is the best performer, followed by info tech and financials, both up 1.6%.Energy, down 1.6%, is the sole decliner, as oil and natural gas prices edge down.In company news, Keyera (KEY.TO) is proceeding with the construction of a rail hub in Alberta. Keyera will build and own the Alberta Corridor Export Rail Terminal, and has set aside an initial $240 million for the project, including a $100 million incremental to Keyera's 2026 growth capital guidance. The project will be underpinned by long term commercial arrangements with CN Rail (CN.TO) and AltaGas (ALA.TO).Wallbridge Mining (WM.TO) jumped 40% to $0.105 and is the most actively traded on the TSX with over 13 million shares changing hands after Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) agreed to purchase 243.9-million Wallbridge shares for $22.4 million. The private placement is expected to close on May 22.

TSX Opens Near 80 Pts Higher; But Down More Than 500 Pts Over Last Two Sessions

Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 0.7% and S&P Futures Up 0.33%

S&P Futures Up 0.33%

TSX Closer: Index Down a Second-Straight Session, This Time More Likely On a Local Issue

The Toronto Stock Exchange fell again Tuesday, following Friday's tumble ahead of the holiday weekend in Canada, but this time it was lower on a more local issue as market watchers are divided over whether to prepare for the Bank of Canada turning more dovish or hawkish on interest rates.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 92.11 points, or 0.27%, to 33,741.24, adding to the 435 points lost Friday when rising global bond yields sapped investor appetite for equities, with elevated oil prices reigniting concerns around the outlook for higher inflation.Still, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell near 0.7% and near 0.8% respectively today. Also, most sectors on the TSX were higher Tuesday, led by Energy up 2.3%, even with oil prices lower. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index crashed 7.6%, while Base Metals was down by more than 4%, with gold down.In commentary on the broader market, Edward Jones in a summary of its 'Weekly market wrap' dated May 15 noted markets this year have been "robust". In fact, it said, despite near 10% corrections in both the S&P 500 and the TSX in March, and ongoing uncertainty around the Iran war and oil prices, stocks are back near record highs. Then in noting there is an old adage that says, 'Sell in May and go away', Edward Jones asked: should investors take that approach this year?"Overall," it said, in answering its own question, "a lot of good news is reflected in markets, and we may see a period of sideways movement or consolidation of recent gains."Nonetheless, we don't yet see the conditions in place for a deep or prolonged downturn in markets -- and as we know from history, time in the markets is a better strategy than trying to time yourself in and out of markets."While we don't recommend selling investments, we do suggest reviewing your investment strategy: To help ensure you are well diversified and seeking opportunities if market volatility does arise, in accordance with your goals and risk tolerance."On the economics front, data released early today showed Canada's inflation measures were softer than anticipated in April. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.8% year on year due to gasoline. The average of trim/median rose by 0.16% MoM and 2.05% year on year. Traditional core (ex. food/energy) was 0.0% MoM and up 1.5% year on year.Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins, wrote underlying inflation is "screaming" for a more dovish Bank of Canada. "Having had nightmares about another round of persistently high inflation, Canadian monetary policymakers can now rest easier," he said, following the release of the CPI data.The latest CPI data suggest underlying price pressures remain "extremely muted", he said, noting the Desjardins bias-adjusted median and trimmed mean measures now point to an average annual rate of just 1.6%, well below the simple average of 2.1% for the unadjusted measures.According to Mendes, the bias-adjusted measures of inflation Desjardins has developed do a better job of accounting for skew in the distribution of price changes. "The last time the gap between the bias-adjusted and unadjusted metrics was this wide in early 2024, it confirmed our thesis that the Bank of Canada was set to embark on an aggressive easing cycle. While rate cuts are not yet on the table, market-implied pricing for two rate hikes seems misplaced. An honest assessment of underlying inflation would have the Bank of Canada turning more dovish. With the unemployment rate elevated and savings diminished, higher gasoline prices may be chewing through household finances in a way that reduces spending and inflationary impulses in other categories," Mendes added.Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Scotiabank's Head of Capital Markets Economics, said Canada is emerging from a prior soft patch on high frequency core inflation measures, "but hardly at a screaming pace" thus far. A lot of data still lies ahead and nothing is settled by one report, he added.Looking ahead, David Doyle, Head of Economics at Macquarie Group, anticipates some firming in inflation ahead as pass through from higher oil prices occurs and the output gap shrinks amidst economic improvement. Macquarie's baseline remains for 50 bps of BoC hikes by end-year with the most likely timing for the first 25 bps hike in September.Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil eased Tuesday after the United States extended a ceasefire with Iran, in favor of continuing peace talks with the country. WTI oil for June delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$107.77, falling off the highest since April 7. July Brent oil was down US$1.70 to US$110.40.Gold moved lower by midafternoon Tuesday as the dollar and yields continued to climb on rising concerns higher interest rates are coming as oil prices rise due to the war on Iran. Gold for June delivery was down US$45.80 to US$4,509.50 per ounce.