S&P/TSX Composite Index

TSX Opens Up Another 100-plus Pts After Setting Fresh Record Close on Monday

S&P Futures Now Up Near 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Now Up 0.3%

S&P Futures Down Less Than 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Up Less Than 0.1%

TSX Closer: The Index Closes at Fresh Record High

The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a fresh record close Monday, its third-straight gain, even with mixed commodity prices, as investors continue to see strong market fundamentals and resilience in the economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed was up 337.79 points, or 1%, to 35,275.64, beating the prior record close of 35217.06 hit on June 4. According to FactSet the TSX going in to today was month-to-date up 0.49% and year-to-date up 3,225.09 points or 10.17%.Not only were commodity prices mixed, but sectors were too. The Battery Metals Index was the biggest mover and gainer in rising 4.7%, followed by Base Metals up 2%.Energy was the biggest loser, down 2.7% as West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower Monday after the United States and Iran reached a truce in the war that has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of the daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$4.13 to settle at US$80.75 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was down US$4.12 to US$83.21.According to Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, traders are cheering the news of an agreed-to US-Iran MoU, and that its key condition is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from both sides. On the Iran side because of threats to shipping and on the U.S. side related to a naval blockade. "For markets, the Strait is the only thing that matters, because its blockage was most pernicious for the global economy. The importance of its re-opening swamps that of other things, such as what central banks will do or say now that they need to consider the MoU itself in their deliberations," Wizman said.But in the spirit of temperance, some caveats are in order, Wizman added. "The MoU is not a permanent peace deal; its details have not yet emerged; it has yet to be signed; there may be domestic opposition to abiding by its terms in the U.S., especially if the U.S. is seen to have made unnecessary concessions; Israel may not be a party to any deal, especially if Iran is able to re-arm its 'axis of resistance'."Still, as reflected in gains for Base Metals, gold was higher by midafternoon Monday, climbing for a second day as the U.S. dollar and yields fell after Iran and the United States agreed to a truce in their war, pushing oil prices lower and easing inflation fears that have pushed investors away from the precious metal. Gold for July delivery was up US$114.30 to US$4,353.10 per ounce.On economics, RBC Economics may have captured investor sentiment in a note entitled 'The economy is bruised, not broken' in which the bank said Canada's economy has proven resilient through early 2026, "bending, not collapsing despite significant headwinds".According to RBC, a second consecutive gross domestic product decline in Q1 sparked recession concerns, but it added the underlying data tells a more encouraging story: Per-capita growth shows Canada is in an early-stage recovery rather than a contraction.RBC said: "To be clear, the economy is not strong yet. Unemployment is still too high. Population declines will continue to limit the underlying growth rate that can be generated. Sectors directly targeted by U.S. tariffs continue to underperform, and high fuel costs are cutting into household purchasing power."But, headline growth numbers mask an important shift: Slowing population growth is depressing aggregate GDP while measures that reflect how households experience the economy show signs of improvement."On a per-person basis, the economy is still growing, RBC said, while noting the unemployment rate also edged lower; to 6.6% in May from 6.8% at end of 2025, "a seemingly contradictory outcome that makes sense only when accounting for the contraction in the available workforce"."We remain cautiously optimistic that enough support remains in place to sustain gradual improvement in those per-person and per-worker economic indicators this year with further tailwinds building into 2027," RBC added.

TSX up 336 Points at Midday With Info Tech, Miners, The Best Performers

The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 336 points at midday, with most sectors higher as investors cheer U.S. president Trump's announcement of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from Friday.The memorandum of understanding between the two countries is due to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.Info tech and miners are the best performers, up 2.6% and 1.9%, respectively.Energy is the worst performer, down 3.7% on lower oil prices.On the economics front, total manufacturing sales rose 4.2% month over month to $77.1 billion in April, following a 3.4% increase in March, said Statistics Canada on Monday. April's manufacturing sales were close to the 4.5% month-over-month consensus rise provided by Scotiabank.Meanwhile, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 0.6% to $89.3 billion in April, Statistics Canada said Monday. According to a Scotiabank preview, Canadian wholesale sales were expected to post a "small" rise. BMO had said wholesale trade should grow 0.5% this time, a little faster than the 0.1% advance figure but slower than March's 1.9% move.

TSX Opens More Than 400 Pts Higher At Near 35,350

S&P Futures Up 1.2% and Nasdaq 100 Futures Up 2%

TSX Closer: The Index Gains as Gold Rebounds, Household Net Worth Climbs

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a gain on Friday as investors welcomed higher gold prices and assessed fresh data showing Canadian household wealth continued to grow in the first quarter despite volatility in financial markets.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 266.39 points, or 0.77%, to 34,937.85, as strong gains in battery metals, base metals and financial stocks outweighed weakness in health care, technology and energy shares.Battery Metals Index led gainers, up 6.70%, with Base Metals, Industrials, Utilities, and Financial, up 2.21%, 0.60%, 0.07%, and 0.86%, respectively. Health Care led decliners, down 1.64%, with Information and Technology, down 0.99%, Telecom, down 0.12%, and Energy, down 0.48%.In commodities, gold traded sharply higher on Friday, rising off a seven-month low on expectations Iran is ready to sign a peace deal with the United States, promising to lower the high oil prices that have raised inflation and boosted the U.S. dollar and bond yields.Gold for July delivery was last seen up US$124.80 to US$4,238.80 per ounce after falling to the lowest since Nov. 20 a day earlier. The rise comes as U.S. President Trump on Thursday said he canceled planned attacks on Iran and said a peace deal with the country is near.For oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell for a second day on Friday, falling to the lowest in nearly two months on expectations the United States and Iran are near a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$2.83 to settle at US$84.88 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while August Brent oil was last seen down US$3.11 to US$87.27.With the prospect of lower geopolitical tensions and a potential peace deal in sight between the United States and Iran, the US dollar (USD) sold off early Friday as the demand for safe havens cooled, said Rosenberg Research.Oil prices are responding to the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran, as both Brent and WTI have pulled back by more than 4.0%, noted Rosenberg. The other currencies that are underperforming as things settle are the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone, two currencies that markets closely identify with oil price moves, stated Rosenberg.Beyond commodity markets, fresh economic data showed Canadian household wealth continued to grow in the first quarter despite volatility in financial markets. Household net worth rises in the face of volatile equity markets, said Statistics Canada in a statement on Friday.The net worth of Canadian households, the value of all assets minus all liabilities, rose 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026 to reach just over $18.6 trillion, as the value of both non-financial and financial assets increased in tandem. Following two consecutive quarterly declines, non-financial assets were up 1.1% in Q1, led by an uptick in the value of residential real estate. Financial assets increased by 1.3%.Household balance sheets added $148.0 billion in financial assets in Q1, and this gain was driven by net purchases of mutual fund units and higher valuations of domestic equities and investment funds amid easing valuations for foreign equity holdings, StatsCan noted.Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted stock of household credit market debt in Canada reached $3.25 trillion in Q1, the latest StatsCan data revealed. At the same time, the ratio of household credit market debt as a proportion of household disposable income increased for the sixth consecutive quarter, climbing by 0.9 percentage point to 179.6% in Q1. In other words, there was roughly $1.80 in credit-market debt for every dollar of household disposable income, the agency said.The household debt service ratio, measured as total obligated payments of principal and interest on credit market debt as a proportion of household disposable income, rose after two consecutive quarterly declines. The ratio finished Q1 at 14.75%, up from 14.68% in Q4 2025, as total debt payments rose 1.1% to outpace income, added StatsCan.The value of household residential real estate rose 1.3% to $8.47 trillion in Q1, despite a decline in real estate activity as measured by resales. According to the MLS House Price Index, the composite house price increased by 0.7% in the first three months of 2026; however, the number of resales declined by 8.4%. In contrast, StatsCan's New Condominium Apartment Price Index indicated that, since the first quarter of 2025, new condominium apartment prices have fallen by 5.9% in Toronto and by 2.9% in Vancouver. According to the Bank of Canada's Financial Stability Report, pressures in condominium markets, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, have created challenges for condominium owners and investors.Besides, the household saving rate fell to 3.5% in Q1 as growth in disposable income (+0.6%) lagged that in nominal household spending (+0.9%). Households continued purchasing mutual fund shares in the first quarter of 2026, registering the third-largest acquisition (+$75.3 billion) on record and following the record-high investment in the fourth quarter of 2025 (+97.1 billion) StatsCan said. In 2025, households benefitted from record-high reinvested earnings through fund investment incomes and capital gains, while in the first quarter of 2026, households focused on record net investments in exchange-traded funds.Additionally, the Bank of Montreal (BMO) noted implications of the expected negative birth rate in the country. In Canada, demographic attention has been rightly focused on the massive influx and then capping of non-permanent residents, said BMO. However, a collapse in natural population growth has been unfolding in the background. Net births are expected to turn negative for the first time ever in 2028, stated BMO. That is, more Canadians will begin to pass away than will be replaced with new babies.According to the bank, there are many causes and many longer-term implications. Among the latter, the lower labor force and potential economic growth, lower break-even job growth rates, a role for artificial intelligence to drive more productivity, mounting stress on social security funding, and an evolving housing demand curve.

TSX Closer: The Index Advances Despite Weak Building Permit Data; Gold Rebounds

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply higher on Thursday, as investors assessed mixed economic data and the Bank of Canada's policy outlook, while a rebound in gold prices after U.S. President Trump said he's near a deal to end the war on Iran helped offset weakness in several heavyweight sectors.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 520.14 points, or 1.52%, to 34,671.46, with most sectors finishing higher on Thursday.Base Metals led gainers, up 6.39%, with Information and Technology, up 1.34%, Utilities, up 0.35%, Telecom, up 0.29%, Industrials, up 0.19%, Financial, up 1.14%, and Health Care, up 0.38%. Battery Metals Index led decliners, down 3.16%, while Energy closed down 0.14%.The latest construction data pointed to a broad-based slowdown in development activity, with both residential and non-residential projects weighing on overall building intentions.The total value of building permits issued in Canada fell $1.0 billion, or 7.6%, month over month, to $12.5 billion in April, as both the non-residential sector and the residential sector contributed to the decline in construction intentions, said the country's statistical agency on Thursday.April's slip was more than twice the 3% month-over-month drop estimated by the Bank of Montreal. On a constant dollar basis, the total value of building permits issued in April declined 7.7% from the previous month and was up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis, said Statistics Canada. The value of non-residential building permits fell $585.9 million to $5.0 billion in April.In commodities, gold rose off a six-month low on Thursday, rising for the first time in five sessions after U.S. President Trump said he canceled planned attacks on Iran and talks between the two may be resuming. Gold for July delivery was last seen up US$10.00 to US$4,143.30 per ounce, rising off the lowest since Nov. 24 and recovering from session lows of US$4,046.20.Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Thursday, falling off session highs after Trump's comments. WTI oil for July delivery closed down US$2.32 to settle at US$87.71 per barrel, falling off a session high of US$93.64, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$2.86 to US$90.24.The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% at Wednesday's policy meeting and kept the policy rate at the lower end of its estimated neutral range of 2.25%-3.25%, UBS said. While communications were little changed, the BoC acknowledged more plainly the "policy dilemma" caused by weakening economic activity and rising inflation. With the outlook remaining uncertain, UBS expects the central bank to remain on hold this year and believes the balance of risks could even be tilted toward rate cuts rather than hikes, depending on how the economy evolves.In Governor Tiff Macklem's opening remarks, he made it clear that "holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks", referring to downside growth risks and upside inflation risks, noted Rosenberg Research.However, the Canadian dollar should remain vulnerable since it will take a lot more to knock United States traders from the view that the Federal Reserve will be hiking rates sooner rather than later, according to Rosenberg.Macklem's commentary was largely consistent with what was outlined at the April policy meeting, noted David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group. As the governor did in April, Macklem referred to the potential for "consecutive increases" in the policy rate should energy prices remain elevated. Macquarie continues to anticipate the BoC's next move to be a rate hike, with the baseline timing in September 2026. Doyle added that the expectation for labor market improvement and stronger growth momentum informs this view.Policymakers remained sanguine on inflation, citing improvement in core inflation measures and limited evidence of broad-based spillovers from higher energy prices. The BoC also reiterated that it would look through the Iran war's near-term impact on inflation, said Nomura, adding that, overall, downside risks to growth remain elevated while price pressures appear contained. The bank continues to expect the BoC to remain on hold through 2026.The BoC's decision to keep rates unchanged reinforced Bank of Montreal's (BMO) view that rates will likely be at this level through 2026.BMO, noting the BoC's policy dilemma, said: "Raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy. Easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent. For now, holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks."

TSX Closer: Index Drops as Investors Assess Bank of Canada's Hold, Inflation and Trade Risks

The Toronto Stock Exchange dropped on Wednesday as weakness in base metals and financial stocks offset gains in energy shares, while investors digested the Bank of Canada's latest decision to hold interest-rates unchanged and assessed the competing risks of slowing economic growth, elevated inflation and ongoing trade uncertainty.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 260.37 points, or 0.76%, to 34,151.032, with sectors mixed over Wednesday's session.Base Metals led decliners , down 3.46%, while Health Care, Battery Metals Index, Industrials, and the Financial were down 1.36%, 1.80%, 1.26%, and 0.22%, respectively. Energy led gainers, up 1.63%, with Information and Technology, up 0.54%, Utilities, up 0.47%, and Telecom, up 0.39%.The BoC on Wednesday kept irates unchanged, including the key overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected. This was the fifth consecutive decision to maintain rates on hold. Since the BoC's April policy decision, the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased, wrote the central bank in its statement.Higher energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the U.S. administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated. Against this backdrop, the Canadian economy has remained soft and inflation has increased. The BoC noted it expects the economy to remain in excess supply.The central bank expects consumer price index inflation to hover close to 3% in the coming months before easing gradually toward 2%. The BoC reiterated it is committed to keeping inflation close to the 2% target over time.Uncertainty is unusually elevated, and the risks could shift, said Governor Tiff Macklem in his press conference. On Canada slipping into a technical recession, Macklem said that the country's economy is weak, but "it is not clearly in recession"."There's been a lot of volatility, month to month, quarter to quarter, but when you look through the bumps, I mean the economy hasn't really grown in the last year, but it hasn't shrunk either," Macklem added.TD said the BoC's decision to hold rates reflects the need to balance weak economic growth against inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices and ongoing trade uncertainty. The bank expects the central bank to remain on hold through the rest of the year as excess economic capacity helps contain broader inflation pressures.CIBC said the Bank of Canada remains "very patient" as it weighs inflation risks from higher oil prices against growth risks tied to trade uncertainty and potential new tariffs. The bank expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, with current policy settings supporting an economic recovery later this year and into 2027 if oil and trade uncertainties ease.Meanwhile, the Bank of Montreal said the policy statement was matter-of-fact, with no big surprises. "The BoC expects growth to rebound in Q2, but "the economy is expected to remain in excess supply", said BMO.The extra line about the economy being "weak" is a touch more dovish, but there's still concern about the potential for rising inflation from higher energy prices, according to the bank. BMO continues to expect the BoC to stay on hold through the rest of the year.A hold on rates was widely expected, but the focus was always going to be on how the bank's Governing Council would describe the evolving risks, said National Bank of Canada. In April, markets seized on Macklem's "consecutive" rate hikes threat in the scenario where oil prices remain elevated and higher energy prices lead to higher generalized inflation, noted the bank.Despite a steady dose of mostly soft inter-meeting economic and inflation data, the BoC is continuing to warn that tighter policy may be needed, stated National Bank. However, the shock of explicitly stating this has worn off and bond yields edged down moderately after the dust on the decision settled. The bank judged that the near-term hike scenario is growing less likely and it still expects the BoC to remain sidelined through year-end.Government of Canada bond yields lowered after the hold decision. While the tone from the BoC was neutral and little changed relative to the April decision, financial markets appear to have been expecting a more hawkish tone and as a result bond yields moved lower as expectations for rate hikes this year were slightly reduced, stated CIBC.In commodities, gold traded at the lowest in more than six months as the metal falls out of favor with traders, who are moving to the dollar as a hedge as a report showed U.S. inflation rose again last month, heightening expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to check rising prices.Gold for July delivery was last seen down US$155.80 per ounce to 4,1130.80 per ounce, the lowest since Nov. 24. The drop comes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the May Consumer Price Index rose at a 4.2% annualized rate, up from 3.8% in April but matching expectations, according to MarketWatch.Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose on renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, while a report showed U.S. oil inventories fell for an eighth week. WTI oil for July delivery closed up US$1.83 to settle at US$90.03 per barrel, while August Brent oil was last seen up US$2.23 to US$93.78.On the trade front, Scotiabank said Canada's export markets continue to diversify away from the United States, although the U.S. remains by far the country's largest trading partnerThe share of Canadian exports bound for the United States is gradually trending lower, averaging 76% in 2024 and 72% last year, and coming in at 69% in April 2026, according to Scotiabank. This has been driven by a decline in exports to the U.S. and increasing exports to other regions, mainly Europe, noted the bank.In April, exports to the U.S. rose 4.8% month over month and were up 5.7% compared with 2024. Exports to other countries dropped 4.8% month over month but were up 48.3% from 2024, though much of this has been driven by elevated overseas exports of gold.

Brief: Bank of Canada Press Conference With Governor Macklem Ends

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says The Economy Is Weak But Not in Recession

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Reiterates Sees Economic Growth to Resume in Q2

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says Not Much Has Changed "Big Picture" From April's Policy Meeting

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says Evidence of Pass-Through From High Energy Prices Would "Get Our Attention"

Brief: Bank of Canada Press Conference With Governor Macklem on Policy Decision Starts

Bank of Canada Keeps Rates on Hold, as Expected; May Need to Cut Rate If U.S. Sets "Significant" New Trade Restrictions

The Bank of Canada kept its rates unchanged on Wednesday, including the key overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, continuing to look through the Iran war's immediate impact on inflation and conflicting economic data.This is the fifth consecutive decision to maintain rates on hold.Since the BoC's April policy decision, the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased, wrote the central bank in its statement. Higher energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the United States administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.Against this backdrop, the Canadian economy has remained soft and inflation has increased. The BoC noted it expects the economy to remain in excess supply.The central bank predicts consumer price index inflation to hover close to 3% in the coming months before easing gradually toward 2%. The BoC reiterated it's committed to keeping inflation close to the 2% target over time.Uncertainty is unusually elevated, and the risks could shift, said Governor Tiff Macklem in his press conference opening statement published with the policy decision. Monetary policy may need to be "nimble," added the governor.If the U.S. imposes "significant" new trade restrictions on Canada, Macklem said the BoC may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth. Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do -- there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says May Need to Cut Rate If U.S. Imposes "Significant" New Trade Restrictions

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says Monetary Policy May Need to Be "Nimble"

Brief: Bank of Canada Governor Says in Opening Press Statement Inflation Seen Close to 3% Y/Y in Coming Months; to "Gradually" Ease Toward 2%